[Table_Stock] 百润股份（002568） 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 点 评 -58% -51% -44% -36% -29% -22% -14% -7% 0% 07/23 10/23 12/23 03/24 05/24 07/24 百润股份 沪深300 [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年股票与沪深 300 比较 [Table_BaseInfo] 基本数据 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------| | 最新收盘价（元） | 16.21 | | 12mth A 股价格区间（元） | 15.26-36.65 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,049.37 | | 无限售 A 股/总股本 | 68.35% | | 流通市值（亿元） | 116.27 | 上半年预调酒业务承压，产品矩阵有望 发力 ——2024 年半年报点评 [行业Table_Industry] : 食品饮料 日期: shzqdatemark 2024年08月01日 [Table_Rating] 买入（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 投资摘要 事件 ...

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 07[Table_StockInfo 月 31日收盘价（元）] | 17.83 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 15.00-36.87 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 1049/717 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 18710/12789 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《Q1 收入短期承压，期待第二增长曲线》 | | | 2024.05.06 | | | 《盈利改善业绩高增，定增扩产逐步落地》 | | | 2023.11.06 | | | 《大单品势能延续，利润表现符合预期》 | | | 2023.08.01 | | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] 百润股份 海通综指 -56.84% -44.84% -32.84% -20.84% -8.84% 2023/8 2023/ ...

食品饮料/非白酒 公 司 研 究 百润股份（002568.SZ） 2024 年 08 月 01 日 预调酒销售短期承压，下半年新品值得期待 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：增持（维持） 上半年业绩短期承压，下半年新品成长性较好，维持"增持"评级 百润股份 2024 年上半年营收 16.3 亿元，同比-1.4%，归母净利润 4.0 亿元，同比 -8.4%。2024Q2 营收 8.3 亿元，同比-7.3%，归母净利润 2.3 亿元，同比-7.3%， 业绩好于预期。考虑消费需求复苏放缓，我们略下调 2024-2026 年盈利预测，预 计 2024-2026 年归母净利润分别为 8.4（-0.7）亿元、9.7（-1.1）亿元、11.3（-1.7） 亿元，同比分别+3.7%、+15.2%、+16.3%，EPS 分别为 0.80（-0.07）元、0.92（-0.10） 元、1.07（-0.16）元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 22.3、19.3、16.6 倍。公司预调 酒业务发展平稳，展望下半年来看，清爽系列受益于新品放量有望高增，同时四 季度公司有望推出威士忌新品，打开新成长空间，维持"增持"评级。 预调酒销售短期承压 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 Q2 预调酒略有压力，盈利能力维稳 公司公告：2024H1 营业收入 16.28 亿元，同比-1.38%；归母净利 4.02 亿元， 同比-8.36%。2024Q2 营业收入 8.26 亿元，同比-7.25%；归母净利 2.33 亿 元，同比-7.28%。 Q2 鸡尾酒下滑大个位数，大罐清爽上市铺货。 1）分业务看，24H1 预调酒收入 14.31 亿元，同比-1.4%，销售量同比-8.7%、 均箱价同比+8.0%；24H1 香精香料业务 1.76 亿元，同比+7.5%，占比+0.8pct 至 11%。24Q2 预调酒收入同比-8%，清爽新品全方位铺市推广。 2）分渠道看，24H1 线下/数字零售/即饮渠道收入 14.30/1.56/0.21 亿元， 同比+7.0%/-35.7%/-42.7%。 3）分区域看，24H1 华东/华南/华北/华西营业收入 5.61/4.68/2.94/2.84 亿 元，同比-8.0%/+4.8%/+6.4%/+0.6%，系华东经销商数量减少，华北仍积极 招商开拓。 4）Q2 末合同负债环比持平，销售收现同比-35.9%。 Q2 毛利率改善明显，销售费率持 ...

公 司 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 其他酒类 ＃investSuggestion＃ 公 司 点 评 报 告 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|-----------| | ＃市场数据 marketData＃ | | | 日期 | 2024-7-30 | | 收盘价（元） | 16.21 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,049.37 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 717.28 | | 净资产（百万元） | 4,364.44 | | 总资产（百万元） | 7,555.29 | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.99 | 来源：WIND，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《百润股份年报及一季报点评： 业绩短期承压，期待全年韧性增 长》20240426 《百润股份三季报点评：强爽势 能 延 续 ， 盈 利 表 现 强 劲 》 20231027 《百润股份中报点评：强爽延续 高增，盈利表现强劲》20230728 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 郭晓东 guoxiaodong@xyzq.com.cn S0190 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The existing business shows resilience, and future development has potential highlights. The company's pre-mixed cocktail products demonstrate consumer resilience, with Q2 2024 performance meeting expectations. The pre-mixed cocktail business achieved revenue of 720 million yuan in Q2 2024, down 7.6% year-on-year, but has stabilized at 710-720 million yuan over the past four quarters, indicating strong consumer resilience [1] - The company has maintained a good profit level, with a net profit margin of 28.2% in Q2 2024, which is flat year-on-year, benefiting from a good gross margin performance and controllable sales expenses. The company is expected to maintain decent profitability in the second half of the year [1] - The whiskey product is nearing its market launch, with the first batch of whiskey barrels filled in October 2021, and the company’s self-made semi-finished product value reaching 740 million yuan by the end of Q2 2024, indicating steady growth [1] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 402 million yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. The revenue for Q2 2024 was 830 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 230 million yuan, also down 7.3% year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is as follows: 2024E revenue is projected at 3.44 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.28%, and 2025E revenue at 3.97 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.50% [2][3] - The diluted EPS for 2024E is projected at 0.82 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 21.69, and for 2025E, the EPS is projected at 0.98 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 18.26 [2][3]

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|百润股份（002568） 2024 年半年报点评： 需求短暂承压，期待新品催化 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年07月31日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024H1 需求短暂承压，全国化持续推进。考虑到我国预调酒与威士忌烈酒市场扩容空间较大， 公司预调酒业务龙头地位稳定且稳步增长、威士忌业务产能与储备等优势明显，维持"买入" 评级。 |分析师及联系人 邓周贵 徐锡联 刘景瑜 吴雪枫 SAC：S0590524040005 SAC：S0590524040004 SAC：S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年07月31日 百润股份(002568) 2024 年半年报点评： 需求短暂承压，期待新品催化 | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------| | 行 业： | 食品饮料/非白酒 | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 16.21 元 | 基本数据 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 1,0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance is under pressure due to weak demand in the first half of 2024, but medium to long-term growth is expected to be driven by the continued expansion of moderately priced refreshing new products [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.628 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 402 million yuan, down 8.36% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights the company's focus on a 3-5-8 degree product matrix, which is expected to enhance brand momentum and drive growth in refreshing products [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.628 billion yuan in H1 2024, with a net profit of 402 million yuan, reflecting a decline in both metrics compared to the previous year [8] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 70.08%, an increase of 4.19 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 24.55%, down 1.99 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.75, 0.84, and 0.96 yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -3.4%, +13.4%, and +13.7% [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its product matrix with a specific emphasis on refreshing products, which are expected to capture market share and drive future growth [8] - The report notes that the company is reducing discounts in online channels to stabilize pricing, which is seen as a long-term beneficial strategy [8] Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to 22.50 yuan from the previous 26.10 yuan, based on a 30X PE ratio for 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The company has shown stable operations under high base pressure, with expectations for growth in its refreshing and whiskey products [4][5] - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 1.628 billion yuan, down 1.38% year-on-year, and net profit at 402 million yuan, down 8.36% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is focusing on enhancing brand marketing and expanding consumer engagement through its "Long Can" product line, which is expected to improve consumer loyalty [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.628 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.38% year-on-year, and a net profit of 402 million yuan, down 8.36% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 826 million yuan, down 7.25% year-on-year, with a net profit of 233 million yuan, down 7.28% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin improved significantly, with H1 2024 gross margin at 70.1%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, and Q2 gross margin at 71.8%, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [4][5] Product and Market Insights - The company’s pre-mixed drinks and food flavoring segments reported revenues of 1.431 billion yuan and 176 million yuan respectively in H1 2024, with the pre-mixed drinks segment experiencing a slight decline of 1.42% year-on-year [3] - The company is actively reducing its online sales channel, with online revenue share decreasing to 9.6%, while offline channels maintained good growth despite high base pressure [3][4] - The company is expected to see significant contributions from its new 500mL large can product and ongoing whiskey product development, with projected revenue growth of 5% in 2024, 21% in 2025, and 18% in 2026 [5][6]

食品饮料 2024 年 07 月 31 日 百润股份 (002568) ——外部需求疲软 强爽表现承压 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|---------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 07 月 30 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 16.21 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 36.90/15.00 | | 市净率 | 4.3 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 3.08 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 11,627 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 2,879.30/8,468.58 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------------------| | 基础数据: | 2024 年 06 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.99 | | 资产负债率% | 42.10 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,049/717 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- ...