Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the market this week, with a 2.6% increase in A-share automotive stocks from January 19 to January 25, ranking 14th among Shenwan sub-industries, compared to a decline of 0.6% in the CSI 300 index [1] - Sub-sectors such as automotive services, commercial vehicles, automotive parts, motorcycles, and others saw increases of 6.9%, 4.8%, 4.0%, 1.4%, and 0.7% respectively, while passenger vehicles decreased by 1.4% [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended core stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Bertley, Top Group, New Spring Co., and Chunfeng Power [2] - For passenger vehicles, Geely, Xpeng, and BYD are recommended, with Jianghuai Automobile suggested for attention [5] - In the parts sector, recommendations include Bertley and Horizon Robotics for intelligent driving, and Top Group and New Spring Co. for new forces in the industry chain [5] - For motorcycles, recommended companies are Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [6] - In the tire sector, SAILUN and Senqilin are recommended [7] - For commercial vehicles, recommended companies include Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck for heavy trucks, and Yutong Bus for passenger vehicles [8] Strategic Collaborations - Changan Automobile signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement with Midea Group to deepen the "people-car-home" smart ecosystem collaboration, allowing users to control 20 types of Midea smart appliances via voice and to check vehicle status remotely [4][11] Robotics Sector Insights - Tesla plans to sell humanoid robots to the public by 2027, with deliveries to enterprises expected to start in the second half of 2026. This development is anticipated to catalyze the robotics sector [3][10] - The focus is on the production and technological iteration of Tesla's robots, with domestic manufacturers like Yushutech expected to enter the IPO phase soon, which could serve as a strong catalyst for the sector [3][10] - Key hardware segments such as dexterous hands and lightweight components are expected to see significant changes, and the valuation of leading automotive robotics manufacturers is anticipated to undergo reconstruction [3][10][23] Policy and Market Trends - The new national subsidy policy for 2026 aims to stimulate demand by extending the scope of vehicle replacement subsidies, which is expected to improve the structure of subsidized models [12][18] - The subsidy for scrapping and replacing vehicles will be based on a percentage of the vehicle price, with electric vehicles receiving up to 20,000 yuan and fuel vehicles up to 15,000 yuan [14][16] - The overall discount rate for vehicles in December 2025 increased compared to November, indicating a competitive market environment [53][54] Motorcycle Market Dynamics - The sales of motorcycles above 250cc reached 69,000 units in December 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a month-on-month increase of 12.9% [30] - The domestic sales of motorcycles above 250cc in December were 28,000 units, up 32.8% year-on-year, while exports showed a decline [31] Heavy Truck Market Recovery - The heavy truck market saw sales of approximately 95,000 units in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 13%, supported by the expanded scope of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy [34] - The average subsidy for scrapping and updating eligible trucks is 80,000 yuan, which is expected to stimulate demand significantly [34][36]

Core Insights - The core insight of the article is that the sales of small electric vehicles (EVs) in China have surged from less than 500,000 units in 2020 to over 3 million units by 2025, with Chinese brands being the primary beneficiaries, capturing nearly 96% of the market share in this segment [4][6][95]. Group 1: Market Growth - From 2020 to 2025, the sales of small electric vehicles in China increased more than sixfold, with their market share rising from less than 3% to over 14% of total passenger vehicle sales [6][95]. - The contribution of small electric vehicles to the overall market has been significant, accounting for over 10% of the market sales and helping to boost the market share of Chinese brands from over 30% to more than 60% [6][95]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Chinese brands have been the sole beneficiaries of the small electric vehicle boom, maintaining a sales ratio of over 90%, which is expected to approach 96% by 2025 [6][95]. - Notable Chinese brands such as Wuling and Geely have experienced a rebound in sales due to their small electric vehicle offerings, with Geely's sales projected to reach nearly 2 million units by 2025 [11][13]. Group 3: User Demographics and Preferences - By 2025, nearly 60% of small electric vehicle users will come from households that previously owned foreign brands, with over 80% of these users being female [25][33]. - The satisfaction and recommendation rates for small electric vehicles are higher than the overall market, indicating a positive shift in consumer perception towards Chinese brands [33][36]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - As of January 2026, major foreign brands like Volkswagen and Toyota have struggled to respond effectively to the rise of Chinese small electric vehicles, lacking systematic strategies to counter this trend [12][103]. - The article suggests that if the sales of small electric vehicles continue to approach 5 million units and capture over 20% market share by 2030, foreign brands will face significant challenges [12][103]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The rise of small electric vehicles has not only created new market opportunities for Chinese brands but has also disrupted the traditional user upgrade ecosystem established by foreign brands [55][62]. - The article emphasizes the importance of viewing small electric vehicles as a key component in building a user upgrade ecosystem rather than merely low-margin products [55][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, indicating a potential rebound in vehicle sales in the first quarter driven by retail and export growth [3][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see a rebound in vehicle sales, particularly in the first quarter, with catalysts from retail and export activities. The focus for auto parts remains on new industries such as intelligent driving, robotics, and liquid cooling technologies [3][4]. - Traditional automotive stocks have shown relative stability in prices, while the robotics sector is expanding into second-tier markets [3]. - The report highlights significant growth in new energy vehicle deliveries, with companies like NIO and Li Auto showing notable month-on-month increases [6][7]. Data Tracking - In early January, the discount rate for traditional vehicles remained stable at 9.6%, with an average discount amount of 22,259 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,192 yuan [5]. - December saw a decline in wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles, with wholesale sales down 8.7% year-on-year and retail sales down 16.8% [5][6]. - New energy vehicle deliveries in December showed a mixed performance, with BYD delivering 420,398 units (down 18.3% year-on-year) while NIO and Li Auto reported significant increases in deliveries [6][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the German government announced subsidies of up to 6,000 euros for families purchasing new electric vehicles to boost the domestic electric vehicle industry [10]. - The report also mentions that the Chinese government is implementing policies to promote the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, which is expected to enhance the automotive market [10][30]. - Geely's new MPV model, the Galaxy V900, was launched with a price range of 269,800 to 329,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [30].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Passenger Car Brand Influence Index report reveals significant changes in brand influence within the Chinese automotive market, highlighting the dominance of domestic brands like Geely, BYD, and AITO in terms of technological advancements and user reputation [1] Group 1: Brand Performance - Geely ranks first with a comprehensive influence score of 810.96, supported by a brand network voice of 1.106 million and market sales of 2.081 million vehicles, showcasing its dual strength in communication and market presence [2] - BYD follows closely with a score of 802.90, demonstrating its leadership in the new energy sector with sales of 3.105 million vehicles and a high positive sentiment rate of 99.18% [2] - Tesla China maintains third place with a score of 798.53, leveraging its unique brand premium and media presence [3] Group 2: Emerging Brands and Technology - AITO stands out with a network voice of 2.7863 million and a user voice share of 93.34%, driven by Huawei's technological support, marking a significant breakthrough in the high-end market [4] - Traditional automakers are also launching competitive new energy sub-brands, with Geely's Galaxy series rapidly increasing sales and becoming a core growth driver [4] Group 3: Challenges for Joint Ventures - Traditional joint venture brands face pressure from the rise of domestic brands, leading to a critical phase of adjustment and strategic transformation [5] - Despite maintaining a strong market position, brands like SAIC Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen show signs of fatigue in user engagement and satisfaction compared to their domestic counterparts [5][6] - The need for accelerated local development of electric products and better alignment with Chinese consumer preferences is crucial for sustaining brand influence [6]

欢迎加入 睿兽分析会员 ，解锁 AI、汽车、智能制造 等相关 行业日报、图谱和报告 等。 1.【雷军：新一代小米SU7争取春节前部分样车进店】1月25日，小米创办人、董事长兼CEO雷军发 文表示，新一代SU7卡布里蓝实车非常漂亮，争取春节前部分样车能够进店，到时候大家就可以到店 感受。现在已经开始小订。（新浪财经） 2.【美国车企的海外业务规模持续萎缩】多年来，美国车企的海外业务规模一直在萎缩。通用汽车于 2017年将其欧洲业务欧宝出售给了标致，后者后来与菲亚特克莱斯勒合并，组建为斯特兰蒂斯集 团。今年第三季度，通用汽车在美国、加拿大和墨西哥以外市场的营收占比仅为8%。 福特目前在英 国、澳大利亚等少数几个国家仍是主流汽车品牌，但在欧洲市场的份额大幅缩水。欧洲汽车制造商协 会的数据显示，福特在欧盟市场的占有率已从2020年的5%降至去年的3%。去年，福特关闭了其位 于德国萨尔路易的工厂，这座城市毗邻法国边境。（搜狐） 3.【比亚迪计划2026年向中国以外地区销售130万辆汽车】比亚迪公司正致力于将向中国以外市场的 交付量提高近25%。 比亚迪品牌及公关部门总经理李云飞周六在上海的一次媒体发布会上表示，该 公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the automotive sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [5][22]. Core Insights - The change in subsidy policies has led to the disappearance of the tail effect in Q4 2025, resulting in a reduction of demand overdraw for 2026. In December 2025, the number of insured vehicles was 2.278 million, down 16.4% year-on-year but up 13.6% month-on-month. The total number of insured vehicles for the year reached 23.047 million, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rising to 54.0%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][7][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Subsidy Policies - The report highlights that the changes in subsidy policies have caused consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, leading to a decrease in demand overdraw for 2026. The expectation is that as replacement subsidy application channels open, pent-up demand will materialize, and the domestic terminal market will trend towards "price increase and stable volume" [4][7]. 2. PHEV Market Share Tracking - The focus is on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as the "mid-level assisted driving equity" leads to share differentiation. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring configuration adjustments and terminal discount changes to understand further market share differentiation [9][16]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The report notes that the passenger vehicle inventory saw a slight reduction in December 2025, with an estimated 1.5 million vehicles in demand waiting to be fulfilled. The overall industry theme for 2025 was "emerging from deflation," with a judgment of "stable volume and slow price increase" being validated. The outlook for 2026 remains "price increase and stable volume," differing from market consensus due to regulatory changes and risk-return assessments [16][17]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain. Right-side targets include Geely, BYD, and others, while left-side targets include Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile. In the commercial vehicle chain, recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power [17].

Group 1 - The event "Auto-First Annual Gala and 2025-2026 China Automotive Innovation Ceremony" highlights the automotive industry's critical years ahead, emphasizing the importance of scale advantages for leading companies and the irreversible trend of smart technology in vehicles [1] - SAIC Motor Corporation was awarded "Annual Automotive Enterprise," while the "Annual Car" award went to the AITO M9, showcasing the recognition of significant players in the industry [1] - The awards reflect the upward vitality and international strength of Chinese brands, with Geely Galaxy recognized as "Annual Brand" and BYD and Chery as "Annual Export Brands" [1] Group 2 - The awards also illustrate a diverse market ecosystem, with models like XPeng G7 and SAIC Volkswagen Lavida Pro winning in various segments, indicating the success of traditional brands in the electric and smart vehicle transformation [2] - Data shows that by 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 54%, with multiple technology routes such as hybrid, range-extended, and pure electric advancing simultaneously [2] - The competition in the automotive market is expected to focus on technology, cost, and channel strength, testing companies' strategic determination and adaptability as the industry shifts from scale to strength [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the automotive industry [22]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China will reach 30.21 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to be approximately 16.85 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [20][21]. - In December 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.814 million units, a decrease of 9% year-on-year and a decrease of 7% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales reached 29.908 million units, an increase of 9% year-on-year [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Total Passenger Vehicle Sales - In December 2025, the total wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.814 million units, down 9% year-on-year and down 7% month-on-month. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 156.3 thousand units, up 3% year-on-year and down 8% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles were 29.908 million units, up 9% year-on-year, while new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 1.5319 million units, up 25% year-on-year [7][8]. 2. Key Automotive Companies' December Sales - **BYD**: In December, BYD delivered 420 thousand vehicles, down 18% year-on-year and down 12% month-on-month. The overseas sales reached 132 thousand units, up 130% year-on-year [8][9]. - **Geely**: In December, Geely delivered 237 thousand vehicles, up 13% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 3.45 million units, a 14% increase from 2025 [10]. - **Changan**: In December, Changan delivered 257 thousand vehicles, down 19% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is 3.3 million units, a 13% increase from 2025 [12]. - **Great Wall Motors**: In December, Great Wall Motors delivered 124 thousand vehicles, down 8% year-on-year. The company launched the "Guiyuan Platform" globally [13][14]. - **Li Auto**: In December, Li Auto delivered 44 thousand vehicles, down 24% year-on-year. The OTA 8.2 version was fully pushed [15]. - **Leap Motor**: In December, Leap Motor delivered 60 thousand vehicles, up 42% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 1 million units [16][17]. - **Xpeng Motors**: In December, Xpeng Motors delivered 38 thousand vehicles, achieving double growth year-on-year and month-on-month. The 2025 total deliveries reached 429 thousand units, up 126% year-on-year [18][19]. 3. Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The report notes that the effectiveness of the old-for-new vehicle policy is expected to diminish, with a projected total of over 11.5 million vehicles replaced in 2025, of which nearly 60% are new energy vehicles. The new policy for 2026 will shift from fixed subsidies to a "proportional subsidy + cap" model [20]. - The report anticipates that the reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives will lead to a more competitive market, pushing the industry towards higher performance and efficiency standards [21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the automotive industry [22]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China will reach 30.21 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to be approximately 16.85 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [20][21]. - The report highlights that the overall passenger vehicle market in December 2025 saw a wholesale sales volume of 2.814 million units, a decrease of 9% year-on-year and a decrease of 7% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales volume was 29.908 million units, an increase of 9% year-on-year [7][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Total Passenger Vehicle Sales - In December 2025, the total wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.814 million units, down 9.4% year-on-year and down 7.0% month-on-month. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 156.3 thousand units, up 3% year-on-year and down 8% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 29.908 million units, up 9% year-on-year, while new energy passenger vehicle sales were 1.5319 million units, up 25% year-on-year [7][8]. 2. Key Automotive Companies' December Sales - **BYD**: In December, BYD delivered 420 thousand new vehicles, down 18% year-on-year and down 12% month-on-month. The overseas sales reached 132 thousand units, up 130% year-on-year [8][9]. - **Geely**: In December, Geely delivered 237 thousand new vehicles, up 13% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 3.45 million units, a 14% increase from 2025 [10]. - **Changan**: In December, Changan delivered 257 thousand new vehicles, down 19% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is 3.3 million units, a 13% increase from 2025 [12]. - **Great Wall Motors**: In December, Great Wall Motors delivered 124 thousand new vehicles, down 8% year-on-year. The company launched the "Guiyuan Platform" globally [13][14]. - **Li Auto**: In December, Li Auto delivered 44 thousand new vehicles, down 24% year-on-year. The OTA 8.2 version was fully pushed [15]. - **Leap Motor**: In December, Leap Motor delivered 60 thousand new vehicles, up 42% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 1 million units [16][17]. - **Xpeng Motors**: In December, Xpeng Motors delivered 38 thousand new vehicles, achieving growth in both year-on-year and month-on-month comparisons. The 2025 cumulative delivery was 429 thousand units, up 126% year-on-year [18][19]. 3. Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The report notes that the effectiveness of the old-for-new vehicle policy is expected to diminish, with the total number of vehicles replaced exceeding 11.5 million in 2025, of which nearly 60% were new energy vehicles. The new policy for 2026 will shift from fixed subsidies to a "proportional subsidy + cap" model [20]. - The report anticipates that the reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives will lead to a more competitive market, pushing the industry towards higher performance and efficiency standards [21].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment opportunity in the small electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly for Chinese brands, which are projected to dominate the market by 2025 with a market share approaching 96% [4][6][13]. Core Insights - The small electric vehicle market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with sales expected to increase from less than 500,000 units in 2020 to over 3 million units by 2025, representing a growth rate of over six times [4][6]. - Chinese brands are the primary beneficiaries of this growth, contributing significantly to the overall market share increase of Chinese brands from over 30% to more than 60% during the same period [6][13]. - Despite the growth, small electric vehicles are characterized by low profit margins, leading some manufacturers to hesitate in fully committing to this segment [6][13]. - The small electric vehicle segment is not only about low-cost sales but also attracts a significant number of quality users, with nearly 60% of small electric vehicle users coming from households that previously owned foreign brands, predominantly female users [23][25][49]. Summary by Sections Market Growth - From 2020 to 2025, the sales of small electric vehicles in China are projected to rise dramatically, with a market share increase from less than 3% to over 14% of total passenger vehicle sales [4][6]. - The strong rise of small electric vehicles has been a key factor in the recovery of several Chinese brands, such as Wuling and Geely, which have seen significant sales rebounds due to their small electric offerings [13]. User Demographics - The small electric vehicle market is attracting a new demographic, particularly women, who make up over 80% of the users from foreign brand households [25][29]. - The shift in user demographics is helping to improve the brand image of Chinese manufacturers, as these users are increasingly satisfied with their small electric vehicle experiences [31][34]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that major foreign brands like Volkswagen and Toyota are struggling to compete against the rising dominance of Chinese brands in the small electric vehicle market [13][70]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Chinese brands not only capturing market share but also redefining the user upgrade ecosystem that was previously dominated by foreign brands [56][70]. Cost Advantages - Small electric vehicles offer significant cost advantages over traditional fuel vehicles, which is a critical factor in their growing popularity [66]. - The comprehensive cost of ownership for small electric vehicles is lower than that of comparable fuel vehicles, making them an attractive option for consumers [67]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the small electric vehicle segment will continue to grow, with a potential market size approaching 5 million units by 2030, which could further challenge foreign brands [13][70]. - As the small electric vehicle market matures, it is expected that foreign brands will need to adapt their strategies to remain competitive, particularly in the face of changing consumer preferences and cost structures [68][70].