Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the need to combat "involutionary" competition and optimize pig production capacity, as highlighted in the recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee [1][17] - The overall pig farming industry is currently profitable, with self-breeding and self-raising models showing increased profits [18][23] - The poultry sector is experiencing price declines, particularly in broiler chickens and chicken seedlings, indicating a potential for price recovery in the future [19][36] Summary by Sections Agricultural Data Tracking - The national average price for lean meat pigs is 14.82 CNY/kg, up 3.9% from last week, while the average wholesale price for pork is 20.58 CNY/kg, up 1.7% [21][22] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased to 90.05 kg, down 0.6% week-on-week [26] - The price of 15 kg piglets has decreased to 36.77 CNY/kg, down 1% from last week [29] Pig Farming - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is 119.72 CNY/head, an increase of 69.48 CNY/head from last week, while the profit for purchased piglets is -26.26 CNY/head, an increase of 105.45 CNY/head [23][24] - The report suggests monitoring the impact of recent policy changes on pig prices and inventory behavior [18] Poultry Farming - The average price for broiler chickens is 6.75 CNY/kg, down 3.7% from last week, and the average price for chicken products is 8.45 CNY/kg, down 1.2% [36] - The price for broiler chicks has dropped to 1.36 CNY/chick, down 20% from last week [31] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth opportunities for industry companies [19] Livestock Support - The report notes increased price volatility in agricultural products, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement and scale [19]

Investment Rating - The report rates the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry as "Overweight" due to expected overall profit improvement in the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of pig farming is expected to improve, with a stable pig price and a significant increase in average profit per head for self-bred pigs [4]. - Poultry farming shows a mixed outlook, with white chicken prices bottoming out and yellow chicken profitability declining, while egg-laying chicks continue to experience high demand [4]. - The pet food sector is projected to maintain high growth, with leading companies showing strong online sales growth, despite a decline in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs [4]. - Animal health is recovering, with increased demand for vaccines and improved sales of veterinary preparations [4]. - The seed industry faces challenges with declining corn prices and increased competition, leading to pressure on the performance of leading seed companies [4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs in H1 2025 is expected to be 14.80 CNY/kg, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, while the average profit for self-bred pigs is projected at 69.04 CNY/head, recovering from a loss of 24.82 CNY/head in H1 2024 [4]. Poultry Farming - White chicken prices are under pressure due to oversupply, with the average price for commodity broiler chicks at 2.4 CNY/bird, down 21% year-on-year. Yellow chicken prices are also declining, with the average price for Qingjiao chicken at 8.9 CNY/kg, down 19% year-on-year [4]. Pet Food - The domestic pet food market is experiencing a growth rate of 17% in online GMV for the first five months of 2025, compared to 14% in the same period of 2024. Leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. show growth rates of 51% and 26%, respectively [4]. Animal Health - The demand for veterinary vaccines has increased, with a 15.8% year-on-year rise in vaccine approvals in the first five months of 2025. Prices for veterinary preparations like Tylosin and Tiamulin have increased by 39.8% and 9.3%, respectively [4]. Seed Industry - The corn seed market is under pressure due to falling corn prices and high competition, leading to a decline in seed prices and performance expectations for leading seed companies [4].

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a mixed performance with banking, liquor, semiconductor, and logistics sectors rising, while non-ferrous metals and chemical pharmaceuticals sectors weakened [1] - BYD's stock price fell over 1% [1] Sector Performance Banking Sector - Major banks like China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance reported market capitalizations of 382.98 billion, 357.30 billion, and 1,030.15 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 9.81 million, 36.96 million, and 7.85 million [3] Liquor Industry - Key players such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of 1,786.59 billion, 214.35 billion, and 467.31 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 40.87 million, 10.51 million, and 20.49 million [3] Semiconductor Sector - Companies like Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information had market capitalizations of 241.84 billion, 229.03 billion, and 315.09 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 24.36 million, 31.12 million, and 15.15 million [3] Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of 1,818.73 billion, 186.84 billion, and 278.88 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 34.54 million, 4.39 million, and 5.94 million [3] Oil Industry - China Petroleum, Sinopec, and COSCO Shipping had market capitalizations of 239.78 billion, 688.67 billion, and 1,573.98 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 8.63 million, 6.43 million, and 7.64 million [3] Coal Industry - Major companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had market capitalizations of 187.79 billion and 815.60 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 12.39 million and 6.45 million [3] Power Industry - Key players such as Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power had market capitalizations of 360.33 billion and 737.96 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 20.49 million and 8.29 million [4] Food and Beverage Sector - Companies like Citic Securities, Guotai Junan, and Haitian Flavoring had market capitalizations of 409.94 billion, 340.96 billion, and 226.93 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 28.30 million, 3.94 million, and 16.84 million [4] Consumer Electronics - Industrial Fulian, Luxshare Precision, and Gree Electric Appliances had market capitalizations of 472.85 billion, 255.90 billion, and 242.55 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 30.57 million, 77.50 million, and 25.48 million [4] Chemical Products - Companies like Wanhua Chemical and SF Holding had market capitalizations of 239.20 billion and 271.34 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 12.28 million and 8.32 million [4] Construction and Engineering - China State Construction and Zijin Mining had market capitalizations of 532.88 billion and 166.95 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 27.26 million and 8.53 million [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig price is expected to maintain a central level above 15 yuan/kg in 2025 due to limited supply growth and cautious breeding practices [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a supply gap, with a notable increase in piglet losses due to a virus mutation, which is expected to drive up pig prices in Q3 2025 [1] - Recent government policies aim to regulate the pig industry, including measures to curb low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The pig price is under significant downward pressure in H2 2025, but multiple government policies are expected to support price increases and alleviate CPI pressure [2] - The overall investment logic in the pig sector is improving due to supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts, suggesting a positive outlook for investment [2] - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index reflects the performance of listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and breeding, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 65.27% of the index [2]

Core Insights - The pig farming industry has experienced extreme fluctuations, transitioning from a period of high profitability to significant losses, highlighting the challenges faced by both established and new leaders in the sector [1][4][5] - The younger generation of pig farmers is adopting digitalization and innovative management philosophies to navigate the industry's challenges and explore new opportunities [1][14][22] Industry Overview - The pig farming sector has undergone a "super pig cycle," with peak profits in 2019-2020 where farmers could earn up to 3000 yuan per pig, followed by a prolonged downturn starting in June 2021, leading to cumulative losses over 21 months [4][5] - New Hope, a leading company in the industry, reported losses of 9.6 billion yuan in 2021 and 1.5 billion yuan in 2022, with expectations to emerge from the downturn by 2024 [4][5] Leadership Transition - The younger generation, represented by leaders like Liu Chang of New Hope, is facing unprecedented pressures and is actively seeking to innovate and revitalize their companies through a focus on efficiency and digital transformation [5][8][14] - Companies like Muyuan Foods are seeing a shift towards younger management teams, with over 40% of their leadership under 40 years old, emphasizing the importance of succession planning in the industry [9][13] Innovation and Digitalization - The adoption of digital tools and innovative practices is becoming crucial for survival and growth, with companies like Muyuan implementing ERP systems to enhance operational efficiency [13][14] - Younger leaders are exploring cross-industry opportunities, such as cultural IP development, to diversify their business models and adapt to changing consumer preferences [18][21] Future Outlook - The industry is witnessing a generational shift, with new leaders like Wen Jialong of Wens Foodstuffs entering the scene, focusing on brand development and cultural integration [16][18] - There is a growing recognition of the need for management philosophies rooted in Chinese culture, as the industry reflects on past practices and seeks sustainable growth strategies [22]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to show upward momentum in July, with a focus on technology and non-bank sectors as potential outperformers due to improved earnings prospects and the upcoming half-year report disclosure period [2][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is likely to experience a bullish trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially breaking through last year's high, although it may face short-term fluctuations within the 3440-3500 range [3]. - Financial stocks are seen as a driving force for the index's upward movement, paving the way for growth sectors to perform well [3]. - Analysts expect that the upcoming earnings season will favor sectors with strong performance, particularly steel, computer, electric equipment, and defense industries, which have relatively high growth expectations [3]. Group 2: Stock Recommendations - A total of 40 brokerages have released their July stock picks, encompassing 260 stocks, with several stocks being recommended by multiple brokerages [3]. - The electronics sector remains the most recommended, with 45 companies included in the July stock picks, marking an increase of 11 from the previous month [7]. - Other sectors with significant representation include machinery, pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and basic chemicals, each with over 20 companies recommended [7]. Group 3: Notable Stocks - The most recommended stocks include Kayi Network, Muyuan Foods, and Zijin Mining, each endorsed by five brokerages [10]. - Notably, Zijin Mining is a long-term holding of prominent investor Deng Xiaofeng, with a market value close to 6.5 billion yuan as of the first quarter of 2025 [10]. - Stocks with a significant reduction in shareholder accounts, indicating increased concentration of ownership, include Dongshan Precision, which saw a 42% decrease in shareholder accounts since the beginning of the year [15]. Group 4: Sector Focus - The power equipment sector has gained attention, with 16 stocks from this sector being highlighted, particularly in the areas of photovoltaic, wind power, and solid-state batteries [21][22]. - The wind power sector, benefiting from recent "marine economy" news, has shown strong performance, with stocks like Dajin Heavy Industry rising over 60% in the first half of the year [22].

Group 1 - The IPO market in China has seen significant activity in the first half of 2025, with a total of 51 new stocks listed on the A-share market, raising a total of 37.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.96% [2] - The Hong Kong IPO market has also experienced a surge, with 43 companies successfully listed, raising 1,067.13 million HKD (approximately 974.25 million yuan), a staggering increase of 688.56% year-on-year [2][4] - The top five IPO projects in Hong Kong by financing amount include major companies such as CATL and Hengrui Medicine, with CATL raising 410.06 million HKD (approximately 374.39 million yuan), making it the highest globally [4][5] Group 2 - Seven A-share companies have successfully listed in Hong Kong, raising a total of 770.17 million HKD (approximately 703.39 million yuan), accounting for 72.17% of the total IPO financing in Hong Kong for the first half of the year [5] - The A-share market has seen a competitive landscape with 26 brokers assisting in 51 IPOs, with CITIC Securities leading with six projects [10][12] - The number of IPO applications received by the three major exchanges in China has expanded significantly, with a total of 177 applications in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [10] Group 3 - The performance of the stock market has been closely linked to the warming of the IPO market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.76% in the first half of 2025 [4] - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong reflects a new characteristic, with leading companies adopting a dual-platform strategy and focusing on hard technology and new consumption sectors [6][7] - The leading brokers in the Hong Kong IPO market include CICC, Huatai Securities, and CITIC Securities, with notable growth in business volume compared to foreign investment banks [8][9]

富时中国A50指数连续 金十图示：2025年07月03日（周四）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：证券、消费电子、家电等板块收高，石油、煤 炭等板块收低，银行、保险等板块涨跌不一 -0.01(-0.18%) +0.06(+0.71%) +0.03(+0.71%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 12,000 中国人保 电机 3825.38亿市值 3573.96亿市值 10161.31亿市值 5.06亿成交额 18.17亿成交额 6.14亿成交额 55.80 37.15 8.65 +0.03(+0.08%) -0.01(-0.02%) -0.04(-0.46%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 五粮液 山内对酒 17782.74亿市值 2142.50亿市值 4643.18亿市值 34.57亿成交额 10.02亿成交额 14.64亿成交额 1415.60 175.62 119.62 +6.00(+0.43%) 0.00(0.00%) +0.44(+0.37%) 术学体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2368.09亿市值 2289.63亿市值 3146.22亿市值 13.25亿成交额 21.74亿成交额 12. ...

Group 1: Brokerage Performance - In the first half of the year, 27 out of 34 brokerage firms' stock selection portfolios reported positive returns, accounting for nearly 80% [2][4] - Huaxin Securities and Dongxing Securities led with returns exceeding 30%, at 35.59% and 34.72% respectively [3][4] - The top-performing stocks in June included Giant Network, which saw a monthly increase of 63.09%, and Shenghong Technology, with gains over 50% [4][5] Group 2: Fund Performance - Active equity funds achieved an average return of 6.78% in the first half of the year, with over 80% reporting positive returns [9][10] - Notably, 347 funds had returns exceeding 20%, and 50 funds surpassed 40%, with 11 funds achieving over 60% [9][10] - The top-performing fund was the CITIC Construction North Exchange Selected Mixed Fund, with a return of 82.45% [10] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Brokerages expect the A-share market to trend upwards in the second half, focusing on emerging technology sectors and maintaining dividend assets as core holdings [7][8] - Key sectors for investment include AI, defense, and high-tech manufacturing, with a shift towards core asset trends anticipated [8] - Fund managers are optimistic about opportunities in AI, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors, suggesting a proactive investment strategy [11][12] Group 4: Macro Economic Insights - External factors have shown that Chinese assets are increasingly attractive, with resilience being a key characteristic of the macro economy [13][14] - Consumer performance has exceeded expectations, supported by policies like the trade-in subsidy, while exports have also remained strong [14] - The influx of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks has been significant, with net inflows reaching 731.19 billion HKD, indicating robust market interest [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the consumer sector in the A-share market, with the Consumption ETF (159928) showing a slight increase despite overall market adjustments [1][3] - The Consumption ETF has seen a net inflow of funds, with a total scale exceeding 12.1 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] - Major stocks within the Consumption ETF, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, have shown positive performance, while some brands like Dongpeng Beverage have experienced declines [3] Group 2 - Moutai's price has stabilized after a previous decline, with the 2025 flying Moutai box price recovering to over 1900 yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [4] - The beverage and snack sectors are identified as having structural growth opportunities, with the tea and energy drink markets showing significant potential [4][5] - The white liquor sector is expected to undergo a valuation recovery, with leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye offering attractive dividend yields of 3.6%, 4.8%, and 5.2% respectively [8][9] Group 3 - The consumer food sector is projected to see steady demand growth in the second half of 2025, with new consumption trends continuing to thrive [7] - The focus is on high-growth segments such as healthy beverages and snacks, which are expected to maintain innovation and market vitality [7] - The overall demand for the liquor industry may remain under pressure, but leading brands are anticipated to navigate through the cycle effectively [8]