Group 1: Core Insights - The media industry saw an overall increase of 3.44% from January 12 to January 16, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.57% [1][6] - Key stocks that performed well include Yidian Tianxia, Liou Co., People’s Daily, and Vision China, while ST Fanli, Beitou Technology, and Dongguang Media led the declines [1][6] Group 2: AI Technology Breakthroughs and Applications - Global AI technology is experiencing a significant breakthrough and application surge, with Bilibili launching an all-in-one AI marketing tool "Hualibida" for streamlined advertising [2][9] - Google’s Veo 3.1 has undergone a major upgrade, enhancing its video generation capabilities, while OpenAI released the more powerful GPT-5.2 Codex programming model, improving safety and reliability [2][9] - The Qianwen APP has launched over 400 new features, covering various scenarios such as food delivery, ticket booking, shopping, and AI tutoring [2][9] Group 3: Industry Data Highlights - The domestic film box office reached 259 million yuan from January 12 to January 17, with "The Hidden Kill," "Zootopia 2," and "Avatar 3" being the top three films [3][10] - Popular variety shows include "Riding the Wind 2026" and "Voice of Life: The Youth Season," while the gaming market continues to see strong performances from titles like "Whiteout Survival" and "Gossip Harbor" [3][10] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines of opportunity driven by AI applications and commercialization, particularly in the AI marketing sector, AI comic and multimodal applications, and the gaming and publishing sectors [4][8][11] - Specific companies to watch include Zhejiang Shusu Culture, Zhongwen Online, Giant Network, and People’s Daily, among others [8][11][13]

Group 1 - The core business of the company is divided into two main segments: mobile communication equipment and precision box systems [2] - The mobile communication equipment segment includes RF devices and antennas, primarily serving outdoor macro base stations with clients like ZTE, Ericsson, and others [2] - The precision box systems segment covers elevator car systems and other specialized equipment, utilized in various industries including elevator manufacturing and medical devices, with notable clients such as Schindler and Thermo Fisher [2] Group 2 - The company currently holds a 20% stake in the target company, with plans to increase its share and achieve control still in the planning stage [3] - The investment will provide financial support for the target company's expansion, facilitate customer resource sharing, and utilize excess production capacity [4] - The target company specializes in optical communication technology, focusing on the R&D, production, and sales of optical communication products, including optical modules and active optical cables [5]

蒙东1750MW绿电并网后，煤电成本优势转变为绿电成本优势，同时实现低碳和降本两个目标 公司1750MW风电光伏项目预计2026年全部并网，发电成本在0.10-0.18元/度，远低于燃煤自备电厂。全 部并网后，绿电年发电量超过55亿度，占公司电解铝用电量50%，公司用电结构将有一半来自低成本绿 电，一半来自低成本褐煤发电，电费降至0.25元/度含税价以下，公司电解铝成本将大幅下降，成本优 势更突出。 公司将在沙特建设50万吨电解铝 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，通过多角度估值，考虑到创新实业(02788)未来5年业绩高增 长，给予公司2026年12-15倍PE估值，得到公司的合理估值区间为32.5-40.7元人民币，对应675-844亿元 市值，相较当前市值有24%-55%溢价空间。首次覆盖给予"优于大市"评级。 国信证券主要观点如下： 背景 公司是一家氧化铝和电解铝生产企业，电解铝营收占比90%。公司成立于2012年，十几年间在蒙东霍林 河建成6330MW燃煤自备电机组和78.8万吨电解铝产能，在山东滨州建成300万吨氧化铝产能，于2025 年11月在港交所上市。 产能地理位置优越，盈利能力行业领 ...

国信证券发布研报称，通过多角度估值，考虑到创新实业(02788)未来5年业绩高增长，给予公司2026年 12-15倍PE估值，得到公司的合理估值区间为32.5-40.7元人民币，对应675-844亿元市值，相较当前市值 有24%-55%溢价空间。首次覆盖给予"优于大市"评级。 公司1750MW风电光伏项目预计2026年全部并网，发电成本在0.10-0.18元/度，远低于燃煤自备电厂。全 部并网后，绿电年发电量超过55亿度，占公司电解铝用电量50%，公司用电结构将有一半来自低成本绿 电，一半来自低成本褐煤发电，电费降至0.25元/度含税价以下，公司电解铝成本将大幅下降，成本优 势更突出。 公司将在沙特建设50万吨电解铝 国信证券主要观点如下： 公司凭借下游深加工业务优势，成功在沙特落地铝产业链项目，一期50万吨电解铝预计2027年左右投 产。沙特电费低廉，高耗能行业电费仅3.2美分/度，相当于国内新疆燃煤自备电成本，电解铝项目成本 优势显著，给公司带来长期成长空间，是电解铝行业稀缺成长标的。 盈利预测：公司电解铝产量持续提升，绿电并网进一步降本，充分享受铝价上涨所带来的利润弹性，预 计2025-2027年归属母 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929), raising the company's net profit forecast for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to HKD 86.37 billion, 96.46 billion, and 105.59 billion respectively, reflecting a positive outlook driven by the increasing proportion of high-margin jewelry products [1] Recent Events - The company reported its unaudited key operating data for October to December 2025, showing an overall retail value growth of 17.8% year-on-year, accelerating from a 4.1% growth in the previous quarter [1] - Retail value growth in mainland China was 16.9%, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a growth of 22.9% [1] Retail Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4%, accelerating by 13.8 percentage points from the previous quarter; franchise stores reported a 26.3% increase, accelerating by 17.7 percentage points [2] - In Hong Kong and Macau, same-store sales grew by 14.3%, with an acceleration of 8.1 percentage points from the previous quarter [2] - High-margin priced jewelry continues to lead growth, with retail value in mainland China increasing by 59.6%, contributing 40.1% to total retail value, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company closed 228 stores during the quarter, ending with a total of 5,813 stores, but expects a reduction in store closures by fiscal year 2027, along with contributions from overseas market expansion [2] Product Innovation and Channel Optimization - In the context of rising gold prices, the company has leveraged product innovation and channel optimization to capture growth in priced gold jewelry, which has been a key driver of same-store sales growth [3] - Products priced by weight have also performed well due to pent-up demand and the year-end peak season [3] - The company plans to continue investing in research and design to strengthen its portfolio of high-margin priced products, while optimizing store structure and introducing new store formats to boost same-store sales and achieve sustained performance growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929), raising the company's net profit forecast for FY2026-2028 to HKD 86.37 billion, 96.46 billion, and 105.59 billion respectively, reflecting a positive outlook driven by the increasing share of high-margin jewelry products [1] Recent Events - The company reported a 17.8% year-on-year increase in overall retail value for the period from October to December 2025, with a notable acceleration of 13.7 percentage points compared to the 4.1% growth from July to September. The retail value in mainland China grew by 16.9%, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a 22.9% increase [1] Retail Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4%, accelerating by 13.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. Franchise stores reported a 26.3% increase in same-store sales, with an acceleration of 17.7 percentage points. In Hong Kong and Macau, same-store sales grew by 14.3%, with an acceleration of 8.1 percentage points [2] - High-margin priced jewelry continues to lead growth, with retail value in mainland China increasing by 59.6%, contributing 40.1% to total retail value, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company continues to focus on enhancing single-store efficiency, closing 228 stores during the quarter, resulting in a total of 5,813 stores. However, the rate of store closures is expected to slow down entering FY2027, with overseas market expansion contributing to incremental growth [2] Product Innovation and Channel Optimization - In the context of rising gold prices, the company has leveraged product innovation and channel optimization to capture growth in priced gold jewelry, which has been a key driver of same-store sales growth. Additionally, products priced by weight have benefited from pent-up demand and the year-end peak season [3] - The company plans to continue investing in research and design to strengthen its portfolio of high-margin priced products, while optimizing store structure and introducing new store formats to boost single-store sales and achieve sustained performance growth [3]

微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊等海外大厂对2026年资本开支指引乐观，该行预计2025年、2026年四家大 厂资本开支总和分别为4065、5964亿美元，分别同比+46%、47%，且用于投资AI算力及基础设施的比 例有望持续提升。目前，海外大厂仍以采购英伟达AI芯片为主，2026年AMD、海外大厂自研芯片有望 快速放量。 互联侧：光摩尔定律，单卡价值量代际增加 1）光模块：一方面，端口速率按"1–2年一代"从10G/40G-100G/400G-800G/1.6T；另一方面，数据中心 网络从"少量跨机柜光互连"走向leaf-spine扁平化、东西向流量主导，叠加AI训练集群由几十卡扩展到数 百卡规模，使得光模块的用量、规格与单点价值量同步抬升。未来，800G将加速规模化部署、1.6T进 入导入期；同时LPO/CPO、硅光、AOC等路线让网络向"更低功耗、更高密度、更高可靠"演进。2） PCB：行业进入AI驱动的新周期，需求结构发生根本性转变。AI服务器集群建设带来算力板卡、交换机 与光模块的同步升级，推动PCB需求量和单价双升。随着算力架构从GPU服务器向正交化、无线缆化演 进，信号链条更短、对材料损耗更敏感，P ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model for estimating dividend points in stock indices, which is crucial for accurately assessing the premium or discount in stock index futures contracts. The model considers the impact of component stock dividends on index points, which is essential for futures pricing[12][41][42] - The model calculates the dividend points of an index during the period from the current date (t) to the futures contract expiration date (T) using the formula: $$ \text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount of Component Stock}}{\text{Total Market Value of Component Stock}} \times \text{Weight of Component Stock} \times \text{Index Closing Price} \right) $$ Here, \(N\) represents the number of component stocks, and the formula only includes stocks with ex-dividend dates between \(t\) and \(T\)[41][42][45] - The model refines the estimation of component stock weights by transitioning from approximate monthly data to precise daily data. The weight of a stock on a given day is calculated as: $$ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{n0} \times (1 + r_n)}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_i)} $$ where \(w_{n0}\) is the weight of stock \(n\) on the last disclosed date, and \(r_n\) is the non-adjusted return of stock \(n\) from the last disclosed date to the current date[48][49] - The model estimates the dividend amount for stocks that have not disclosed their dividend plans by predicting net profit and dividend payout ratios. The dividend amount is calculated as: $$ \text{Dividend Amount} = \text{Net Profit} \times \text{Dividend Payout Ratio} $$ Net profit is predicted using historical profit distribution patterns, while the dividend payout ratio is estimated based on historical averages[50][53][56] - The model predicts ex-dividend dates using a linear extrapolation method based on the stability of historical intervals between dividend announcement and ex-dividend dates. If historical data is unavailable or unreliable, default dates are assigned based on typical market practices[54][59] - The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual dividend points for major indices (e.g., SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000). The model demonstrates high accuracy, with prediction errors generally within 5 points for SSE 50 and CSI 300, and within 10 points for CSI 500 and CSI 1000[60][64][67] - The model's predictions for stock index futures contracts' dividend points also show strong alignment with actual values, indicating its reliability for futures pricing[64][67][69]

进口牛肉限制政策分析 "配额+关税"落地，后续国内进口预计量减价增。政策保护国内肉牛产业的信号明确，商务部决定自 2026年1月1日起以"国别配额及配额外加征关税"的形式对进口牛肉采取保障措施，保障措施实施期限为 3年，对来自巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭、新西兰、澳大利亚、美国等其他国家和地区的配额外进口将加征 55%关税。综合考虑各国牛肉生产及贸易优劣势差异后，该行预估未来国内实际可从美国、新西兰、乌 拉圭进口的牛肉有限，或难达配额数量。在中性情形假设下，预计2026年最终我国配额内合计进口牛肉 量将达234万吨，或较2024全年牛肉进口量减少接近20%，未来牛肉进口压力将显著减轻。 海外牛价周期展望 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，牧业大周期反转明确，奶牛及肉牛相关产业受益。对于奶牛 养殖行业，肉牛大周期上行有望明显增厚其奶牛淘汰和犊牛外销收益，同时原奶行情改善利好主业盈利 修复，肉奶共振背景下同样具备较高业绩修复弹性。对于肉牛养殖或屠宰加工行业，业绩将直接受益牛 肉景气上行。 国信证券主要观点如下： 全球牛价正在进入上行周期。主产区中，美国中西部草场因2020-2022年拉尼娜气象周期导致的严重干 旱而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global asset allocation logic is shifting towards profit realization, with a priority on equity assets, while bonds require strict control of long-end risks [2] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Equity assets are prioritized in the current global asset allocation, supported by the debt-equity ratio advantage and policy support in A-shares, entering a "slow bull" phase [2] - The U.S. stock market benefits from AI efficiency dividends, leading to profit margin expansion, while the Japanese and Korean markets see significant profit upgrades due to their technology supply chain advantages [2] - Commodities are supported by AI-driven resource pricing reconstruction, physical hoarding demand, and geopolitical "safety premiums," maintaining a long bull market [2] Group 2: Macro Scenario and Investment Strategies - The macro scenario focuses on the continuation of the "AI narrative" and restrained interest rate cuts, with different risk preferences corresponding to four quadrants for investment layout [3] - Risk-seeking strategies can focus on a "strong rate cut + strong AI" combination, emphasizing mid-small cap growth, large cap growth, and gold for high elastic returns [3] - Conservative strategies may adopt a "strong rate cut + weak AI" defensive combination, centered on long bonds, gold, and large cap value stocks for stable returns and risk control [3] Group 3: All-Weather Strategy - The risk parity strategy allows for all-weather allocation, capturing the certainty of returns from bonds and gold during rate cut cycles while hedging against valuation volatility risks from the AI narrative [4] - The current domestic all-weather strategy combines short bonds as a base, with appropriate allocations to gold and equity assets, while closely monitoring uncertainties in overseas monetary policy and other risks [4]