Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929), raising the company's net profit forecast for FY2026-2028 to HKD 86.37 billion, 96.46 billion, and 105.59 billion respectively, reflecting a positive outlook driven by the increasing share of high-margin jewelry products [1] Recent Events - The company reported a 17.8% year-on-year increase in overall retail value for the period from October to December 2025, with a notable acceleration of 13.7 percentage points compared to the 4.1% growth from July to September. The retail value in mainland China grew by 16.9%, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a 22.9% increase [1] Retail Performance - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4%, accelerating by 13.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. Franchise stores reported a 26.3% increase in same-store sales, with an acceleration of 17.7 percentage points. In Hong Kong and Macau, same-store sales grew by 14.3%, with an acceleration of 8.1 percentage points [2] - High-margin priced jewelry continues to lead growth, with retail value in mainland China increasing by 59.6%, contributing 40.1% to total retail value, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company continues to focus on enhancing single-store efficiency, closing 228 stores during the quarter, resulting in a total of 5,813 stores. However, the rate of store closures is expected to slow down entering FY2027, with overseas market expansion contributing to incremental growth [2] Product Innovation and Channel Optimization - In the context of rising gold prices, the company has leveraged product innovation and channel optimization to capture growth in priced gold jewelry, which has been a key driver of same-store sales growth. Additionally, products priced by weight have benefited from pent-up demand and the year-end peak season [3] - The company plans to continue investing in research and design to strengthen its portfolio of high-margin priced products, while optimizing store structure and introducing new store formats to boost single-store sales and achieve sustained performance growth [3]

微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊等海外大厂对2026年资本开支指引乐观，该行预计2025年、2026年四家大 厂资本开支总和分别为4065、5964亿美元，分别同比+46%、47%，且用于投资AI算力及基础设施的比 例有望持续提升。目前，海外大厂仍以采购英伟达AI芯片为主，2026年AMD、海外大厂自研芯片有望 快速放量。 互联侧：光摩尔定律，单卡价值量代际增加 1）光模块：一方面，端口速率按"1–2年一代"从10G/40G-100G/400G-800G/1.6T；另一方面，数据中心 网络从"少量跨机柜光互连"走向leaf-spine扁平化、东西向流量主导，叠加AI训练集群由几十卡扩展到数 百卡规模，使得光模块的用量、规格与单点价值量同步抬升。未来，800G将加速规模化部署、1.6T进 入导入期；同时LPO/CPO、硅光、AOC等路线让网络向"更低功耗、更高密度、更高可靠"演进。2） PCB：行业进入AI驱动的新周期，需求结构发生根本性转变。AI服务器集群建设带来算力板卡、交换机 与光模块的同步升级，推动PCB需求量和单价双升。随着算力架构从GPU服务器向正交化、无线缆化演 进，信号链条更短、对材料损耗更敏感，P ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model for estimating dividend points in stock indices, which is crucial for accurately assessing the premium or discount in stock index futures contracts. The model considers the impact of component stock dividends on index points, which is essential for futures pricing[12][41][42] - The model calculates the dividend points of an index during the period from the current date (t) to the futures contract expiration date (T) using the formula: $$ \text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount of Component Stock}}{\text{Total Market Value of Component Stock}} \times \text{Weight of Component Stock} \times \text{Index Closing Price} \right) $$ Here, \(N\) represents the number of component stocks, and the formula only includes stocks with ex-dividend dates between \(t\) and \(T\)[41][42][45] - The model refines the estimation of component stock weights by transitioning from approximate monthly data to precise daily data. The weight of a stock on a given day is calculated as: $$ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{n0} \times (1 + r_n)}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_i)} $$ where \(w_{n0}\) is the weight of stock \(n\) on the last disclosed date, and \(r_n\) is the non-adjusted return of stock \(n\) from the last disclosed date to the current date[48][49] - The model estimates the dividend amount for stocks that have not disclosed their dividend plans by predicting net profit and dividend payout ratios. The dividend amount is calculated as: $$ \text{Dividend Amount} = \text{Net Profit} \times \text{Dividend Payout Ratio} $$ Net profit is predicted using historical profit distribution patterns, while the dividend payout ratio is estimated based on historical averages[50][53][56] - The model predicts ex-dividend dates using a linear extrapolation method based on the stability of historical intervals between dividend announcement and ex-dividend dates. If historical data is unavailable or unreliable, default dates are assigned based on typical market practices[54][59] - The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing predicted dividend points with actual dividend points for major indices (e.g., SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000). The model demonstrates high accuracy, with prediction errors generally within 5 points for SSE 50 and CSI 300, and within 10 points for CSI 500 and CSI 1000[60][64][67] - The model's predictions for stock index futures contracts' dividend points also show strong alignment with actual values, indicating its reliability for futures pricing[64][67][69]

进口牛肉限制政策分析 "配额+关税"落地，后续国内进口预计量减价增。政策保护国内肉牛产业的信号明确，商务部决定自 2026年1月1日起以"国别配额及配额外加征关税"的形式对进口牛肉采取保障措施，保障措施实施期限为 3年，对来自巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭、新西兰、澳大利亚、美国等其他国家和地区的配额外进口将加征 55%关税。综合考虑各国牛肉生产及贸易优劣势差异后，该行预估未来国内实际可从美国、新西兰、乌 拉圭进口的牛肉有限，或难达配额数量。在中性情形假设下，预计2026年最终我国配额内合计进口牛肉 量将达234万吨，或较2024全年牛肉进口量减少接近20%，未来牛肉进口压力将显著减轻。 海外牛价周期展望 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，牧业大周期反转明确，奶牛及肉牛相关产业受益。对于奶牛 养殖行业，肉牛大周期上行有望明显增厚其奶牛淘汰和犊牛外销收益，同时原奶行情改善利好主业盈利 修复，肉奶共振背景下同样具备较高业绩修复弹性。对于肉牛养殖或屠宰加工行业，业绩将直接受益牛 肉景气上行。 国信证券主要观点如下： 全球牛价正在进入上行周期。主产区中，美国中西部草场因2020-2022年拉尼娜气象周期导致的严重干 旱而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global asset allocation logic is shifting towards profit realization, with a priority on equity assets, while bonds require strict control of long-end risks [2] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Equity assets are prioritized in the current global asset allocation, supported by the debt-equity ratio advantage and policy support in A-shares, entering a "slow bull" phase [2] - The U.S. stock market benefits from AI efficiency dividends, leading to profit margin expansion, while the Japanese and Korean markets see significant profit upgrades due to their technology supply chain advantages [2] - Commodities are supported by AI-driven resource pricing reconstruction, physical hoarding demand, and geopolitical "safety premiums," maintaining a long bull market [2] Group 2: Macro Scenario and Investment Strategies - The macro scenario focuses on the continuation of the "AI narrative" and restrained interest rate cuts, with different risk preferences corresponding to four quadrants for investment layout [3] - Risk-seeking strategies can focus on a "strong rate cut + strong AI" combination, emphasizing mid-small cap growth, large cap growth, and gold for high elastic returns [3] - Conservative strategies may adopt a "strong rate cut + weak AI" defensive combination, centered on long bonds, gold, and large cap value stocks for stable returns and risk control [3] Group 3: All-Weather Strategy - The risk parity strategy allows for all-weather allocation, capturing the certainty of returns from bonds and gold during rate cut cycles while hedging against valuation volatility risks from the AI narrative [4] - The current domestic all-weather strategy combines short bonds as a base, with appropriate allocations to gold and equity assets, while closely monitoring uncertainties in overseas monetary policy and other risks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal moment for global asset allocation among Chinese households, with a significant increase in the scale of FOF products and growing interest in global assets like US stocks and gold [1]. Group 1: Changes in Asset Allocation Paradigms - Traditional stock-bond allocation frameworks are no longer sufficient to meet current financial needs, as stocks exhibit high volatility and low win rates, while bond yields are too low [3][4]. - From 2024, more FOF clients are seeking higher win-rate global asset allocation combinations, with a focus on assets like the Nasdaq and gold ETFs, which have historically shown higher success rates [3][4]. - Emerging markets such as India and Vietnam are being explored for their potential, as they replicate the urbanization and industrialization logic seen in China's past [3][4]. Group 2: Market Insights and Historical Context - The performance of "old blue-chip stocks" in China, which have seen stagnant profit growth but high dividend yields, mirrors the current growth stocks in emerging markets like India and Vietnam [4]. - Japan's experience during its low-interest era, where institutional investors significantly increased global asset allocations, serves as a reference point for current trends [15]. Group 3: Evolving Research and Strategy Frameworks - The shift from traditional top-down strategies to a more nuanced global asset allocation approach reflects the changing landscape of wealth management, with a focus on integrating various asset classes [9][11]. - The development of a comprehensive high-frequency data system and the need for more granular industry analysis highlight the evolution of investment strategies [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook on Key Assets - Gold is expected to gain importance as a safe-haven asset, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and the weakening of dollar credibility, with predictions of significant price increases [16]. - The long-term outlook for US stocks remains positive, driven by substantial capital expenditures in the tech sector, particularly in AI, which is anticipated to yield profitable returns [17][18]. Group 5: Role of AI in Investment Strategies - AI is transforming investment research by enhancing efficiency and allowing for more objective analysis, thus reducing emotional biases in decision-making [20]. - The integration of AI into investment frameworks is expected to streamline processes and improve the accuracy of asset allocation strategies [20]. Group 6: Organizational Changes and Research Integration - The restructuring of the research team under the leadership of a chief economist aims to enhance collaboration across various sectors, facilitating a more integrated approach to asset allocation [21].

Core Viewpoint - Xinxing Technology's IPO application on the Beijing Stock Exchange has been postponed, marking the first such case for 2026 among major Chinese exchanges, with Guosen Securities as the sponsor [2] Group 1: IPO Application and Regulatory Requirements - The listing committee has requested further verification from the sponsor and the reporting accountant regarding sales customers with "cross-border foreign exchange payment capabilities," focusing on payment agreements and execution [2] - Xinxing Technology is required to disclose additional information about borrowing from subsidiaries for fundraising projects and measures to control the use of raised funds to protect the interests of the company and minority investors [4] - The committee has raised questions about the authenticity and sustainability of the company's operating performance and the implementation of fundraising projects through its subsidiaries [4] Group 2: Company Overview and Financial Performance - Xinxing Technology specializes in the research, production, and sales of computer embroidery machines, recognized as a "little giant" enterprise by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [4] - The company's total assets have increased from approximately 618.49 million yuan in 2022 to about 1.20 billion yuan by mid-2025, with total equity rising from 302.14 million yuan to approximately 563.74 million yuan in the same period [5] - Revenue for the years 2022 to 2025 is projected to grow from 600 million yuan to between 1.35 billion and 1.55 billion yuan, with net profit expected to rise significantly from 52.6 million yuan in 2022 to between 195 million and 225 million yuan in 2025 [6] Group 3: Shareholding Structure - The actual controllers of Xinxing Technology, Wang Haijiang and Yao Xiaoyan, hold 46.67% of the company's shares directly and control 99.05% of the voting rights through affiliated entities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term upward trend of A-shares remains unchanged despite short-term declines in major indices, supported by macroeconomic policies and expected recovery in corporate earnings [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the midday close, the CSI A500 index fell by 0.7%, the CSI A100 index decreased by 0.6%, and the CSI A50 index dropped by 0.5% [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Policies - In the medium to long term, the macro policy cycle is expected to create a favorable liquidity environment for the market, particularly with the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026, which will see multiple departments issuing supporting industrial policies and investment plans [1] Group 3: Capital Inflows - The anticipated inflow of long-term funds, including insurance capital, resident funds, and foreign capital driven by currency appreciation, is expected to bring additional capital into the market [1] Group 4: Corporate Earnings Outlook - It is projected that corporate earnings will enter a mild recovery phase in 2026, and the market will focus on the potential turning point in profitability as a key support for market trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a downturn, with major indices showing weakness and a potential technical correction expected before February. Analysts suggest focusing on fundamental performance rather than speculative trading [1][7]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index drop by 0.30%, the Shenzhen Component by 1.22%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.83% during the morning session [1]. - The real estate sector showed resilience, with stocks like Chengdu Investment Holdings and Hefei Urban Construction hitting the daily limit [2]. - AI application stocks rebounded, with companies such as Zhejiang Wenhu and Tiandi Online also reaching the daily limit [3]. - The semiconductor sector experienced a surge, with Zhongwei Semiconductor rising by 20% [1]. - Consumer stocks, particularly in beauty and liquor, were active, while the commercial aerospace sector continued to decline [1]. Sector Insights - Real Estate: The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.3% month-on-month decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities, indicating a narrowing of the decline. Analysts expect policy adjustments in the first quarter, favoring companies with strong liquidity and product capabilities [2]. - AI Applications: The trend of AI applications is expected to continue, with hardware increasingly penetrating daily life across various sectors, including automotive and smart home devices. The software side is also seeing advancements in model inference capabilities [3]. - Technology Sector: According to Guosen Securities, the spring market is not over, and fluctuations may present good investment opportunities. The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains a key focus [4]. Analyst Opinions - Guosen Securities emphasizes that the spring market is ongoing, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy while focusing on technology growth driven by AI applications [4]. - Shenwan Hongyuan notes that while the commercial aerospace and AI sectors have upward trends, excessive trading may lead to a market correction. The A-share market has a foundation for mid-term growth, and patience is advised [5]. - Huatai Securities indicates a shift towards focusing on "performance fundamentals," suggesting adjustments in portfolio structure to avoid irrational speculation [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the decline in material costs for food and beverage companies primarily occurs in two scenarios: during a bear market for commodities and when specific agricultural raw material prices drop due to changes in supply and demand dynamics in niche markets [1] Group 1: Cost Impact on Performance - Cost fluctuations are a significant factor affecting the short-term performance of consumer goods companies, with operating costs accounting for approximately 70% of revenue, and material costs typically representing 65%-85% of operating costs [1] - Historical analysis shows that material cost declines for food and beverage companies mainly occur during commodity bear markets or when specific agricultural raw material prices drop due to supply and demand changes [2] Group 2: Cost Dividend Clues for 2026 - The price of edible sunflower seeds is expected to decline by over 10% in 2026, benefiting leading sunflower seed companies like Qiaqia Food (002557), which derives over 60% of its revenue from sunflower seeds [3] - The price of konjac powder is projected to decrease by 10%-20% in 2026, benefiting leading konjac snack companies such as Weilong Delicious (with over 60% of revenue from konjac snacks) and Yanjin Shop (with approximately 30% of revenue from konjac snacks) [4]