瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.24」 白糖市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 添加客服 业务咨询 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑糖2601合约价格小幅上涨，周度涨幅约0.63%。 行情展望：新榨季全球食糖过剩预估值多数上调，泰国和印度糖产量恢复，对供应 端起到关键影响，其中印度将于2025/26榨季恢复食糖出口，市场初步预期为200 万吨。国内市场，2025/26榨季蒙古、新疆合计有26家糖厂全部开榨 ，总产量预期 140万吨左右，短期北方甜菜糖供应将逐渐增加。另外海关总署公布的数据显示， 2025年9月份，我国食糖进口量为55万吨，环比减少约28万吨，同比增加35.8%； 2025年1-9月份，我国累计进口食糖316万吨，同比增加27万吨或9.4%。三季度进 口糖进度明显提速。根据农业农村部市场预警专家委员会预估，本年度我国进口总 量将超500万吨，加之进口糖配额外窗口打开，后期进口量压力仍明显。下游需求 处于季节性回落中，预计后期成品糖及饮料用货减少。不过盘面价格受成本支撑逐 渐显现，预计价格震荡为主。 交易策略 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Market**: A - shares and four stock index futures rose collectively this week, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, market sentiment was boosted, but trading activity declined. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond Market**: Treasury futures weakened this week. Although the fundamentals and capital situation may push the bond market to strengthen, uncertainties will continue to disrupt market sentiment. It is expected that Treasury futures will fluctuate widely in the short term, and interval operations are recommended [6]. - **Commodity Market**: Geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices, and gold fluctuations decrease. The short - term commodity index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to mainly observe [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The US dollar may be under pressure in the medium term. The yen is under pressure, and short - term dollar strength may suppress the euro and yen. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 3.24%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 3.35%. A - shares and four stock index futures rose, with market sentiment boosted after the Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.21%, and the main 10 - year Treasury futures fell 0.27%. Due to policy and market uncertainties, it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and interval operations are recommended [6]. - **Commodity**: The Wind Commodity Index fell 4.93%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index fell 0.29%. Geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices, and gold fluctuations decrease. It is recommended to mainly observe [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.42%. The US dollar may be under pressure in the medium term, and the yen is under pressure. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6]. Important News and Events - **China - US Relations**: The two sides are about to return to the negotiation table, and Trump plans to visit China next year. China advocates resolving issues through negotiation [14][16]. - **Domestic Policy**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasized "sustained efforts in pro - growth policies" [6]. - **International Affairs**: The EU invited China to discuss rare earths, and European leaders supported the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire through negotiation. The Trump administration froze $11 billion in infrastructure funds [14][16]. This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - **China**: The Q3 GDP annual rate was 4.8%, the September social consumer goods retail sales increased 3% year - on - year, and the September industrial added value increased 6.5% year - on - year [11][17]. - **US**: The September existing home sales totaled 4.06 million annualized [17]. - **EU**: The preliminary October consumer confidence index was - 14.2 [17]. - **UK**: The September CPI monthly rate was 0, and the September retail price index monthly rate was - 0.4% [17]. - **Germany**: The September PPI monthly rate was - 0.1% [17]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **October 27**: China's January - September industrial enterprise profit annual rate, US September durable goods orders monthly rate [81]. - **October 28**: Germany's November Gfk consumer confidence index, US August S&P/CS20 city house price index annual rate [81]. - **October 30**: US Fed interest rate decision, eurozone Q3 GDP annual rate, US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate, etc. [81]. - **October 31**: Japan's September unemployment rate, China's October official manufacturing PMI, etc. [81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1660 in the short - term [7] - The domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly at a low level this week. The average price of mainstream small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [8] - Recently, new urea plants in China have stopped production, and the output has decreased slightly. Next week, the probability of output increase is high. Agricultural demand has increased moderately, and industrial demand is tepid. The inventory may still show an increasing trend [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1660 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The domestic urea market fluctuated narrowly at a low level this week. The average price of mainstream small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped to 1500 - 1560 yuan/ton, with an average price down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [8] - Market outlook: New urea plants have stopped production, and the output has decreased slightly. Next week, the probability of output increase is high. Agricultural demand has increased moderately, and industrial demand is tepid. Inventory may still increase [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Futures price: The price of the main urea contract in Zhengzhou closed up with a weekly increase of 2.5% [11] - Inter - period spread: As of October 24, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 77 [14] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Futures warehouse receipts: As of October 24, there were 5407 urea warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 887 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of October 23, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [27] - Foreign spot price: As of October 23, the FOB price of urea in China was 360 US dollars/ton, with no change from last week [31] - Basis: As of October 23, the urea basis was - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4 Industry Chain - Upstream: As of October 22, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. As of October 23, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.29 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.29 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] - Industry: As of October 23, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 127.79 tons, a decrease of 4.26 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.23%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.03%, a decrease of 2.61% from the previous period. As of October 23, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.6 tons, a decrease of 52.91%. As of October 22, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 163.02 tons, an increase of 1.48 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.92%. In September 2025, urea exports were 137.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72.12%; the average export price was 424.93 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 93.01% [42][45][48] - Downstream: As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 27.71%, a week - on - week increase of 3.53 percentage points. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 48.30%, a decrease of 6.88 percentage points from last week [51]

「 2025.10.24」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 研究员:黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 瑞达期货研究院 目录 「 周度要点小结」 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货上涨1.65%，玻璃期货下跌0.27%，本周纯碱期货行情呈现出上行走势，本周 纯碱在减产预期下，整体呈现了小幅上行态势，玻璃由于库存增加，地产情绪低迷导致，整体维持底部 震荡。 u 行情展望：纯碱方面，供应端来看国内纯碱开工率下行，纯碱产量下行，现阶段国内纯碱开工率处于较 高水平且呈现上行趋势。从企业层面来看，部分企业因利润压缩以及设备维护需求，计划在下周进行短 停检修，这将对整体供应产生一定影响。需求端玻璃产线冷修数量不变，整体产量不变，依旧底部徘徊， 刚需生产迹象明显，利润回升，主要来自于现货价格上行，预计下周产量继续底部。当前光伏玻璃市场 走势平稳，对纯碱的整体需求暂无明显变化。不过，随着 "反内卷" 进程推进，后续光伏玻璃行业将 继续减产，对纯碱的需求将减弱 。本周国内纯碱企业库存增加，下游需求不畅，光伏玻璃产量下滑导致， 玻璃企 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market may oscillate due to the current weak supply - demand situation and positive future expectations [6] - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a state of temporary supply - demand weakness, with industrial inventory accumulating, but domestic macro - control may gradually repair consumption expectations [6] - It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades and control trading rhythm and risks [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - The Shanghai copper main contract showed a slightly stronger weekly oscillation, with a weekly increase of 3.95% and an amplitude of 4.09%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 87,720 yuan/ton [6] - Internationally, the US federal government "shutdown" may lead to the suspension of the food - stamp program in November, affecting 42 million low - income people. Domestically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [6] - Fundamentally, copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, TC fees are in the negative range, and the ore price is firm. Domestic smelting capacity has decreased due to many maintenance operations and tight raw - material supply, and refined - copper supply has slightly tightened. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand, and currently, downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid demand and are highly watchful [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of October 24, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,685 yuan/ton. The main - contract price was 87,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,330 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 275,672 lots, a week - on - week increase of 60,099 lots [12] - **Spot Prices**: As of October 24, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 86,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 690 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [15] - **Premiums and Positions**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 24,968 lots, a decrease of 14,125 lots from last week [24] 3. Option Market - As of October 24, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main - contract at - the - money option fell to around the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.7873, a week - on - week increase of 0.0388 [29] 4. Upstream Situation - **Mining Quotes and Processing Fees**: The quotes of upstream copper mines have strengthened, and the processing fees of blister copper have weakened. As of the latest data this week, the quote of copper concentrate in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 76,710 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 520 yuan/ton. The processing fee of southern blister copper this week was 900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [30] - **Imports and Price Differences**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23% and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 3,425.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 483.43 yuan/ton [36] - **Global Production and Inventories**: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 468,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,000 tons [41] 5. Industry Situation - **Refined - Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - **Refined - Copper Imports**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 1,608.72 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,053.96 yuan/ton [50][51] - **Social Inventories**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory decreased by 300 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 1,917 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 7,778 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 189,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 tons [54] 6. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95% and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [60] - **Applications**: As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.54% and 13.99% respectively. As of September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% respectively [64] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of September 2025, the cumulative completed investment in real - estate development was 6.770571 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 381.88702 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.37% [71] 7. Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance of refined copper showed an oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 256,500 tons [76][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the non - release of the crop progress report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, causing cautious market trading. As the U.S. corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, putting downward pressure on U.S. corn prices. However, the estimated lower corn yield in the U.S. this year than the previous USDA forecast provides some support for prices [3]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the accelerated harvest of new - season corn, the purchase of new grain by multiple Sinograin direct - affiliated warehouses, and the improvement of corn storage conditions have led to a slowdown in the shipment of some growers. Although deep - processing enterprises have raised quotes, the pressure of concentrated supply of new - season corn still exists, and prices fluctuate slightly. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the remaining grain in the market is scarce, and the market supply is increasing rapidly, causing the purchase price to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For corn starch, the increasing supply of new - season corn reduces cost support, and the substitution advantage of tapioca starch squeezes market demand. However, the industry's operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years, the supply - side pressure is not large, and enterprise inventories have slightly declined. The corn starch market is generally in a bearish trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2140 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 104 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 892,982 lots, up 39,613 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 74,538 lots, up 1,689 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 61,968 lots, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2450 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 21 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 207,369 lots, up 5,801 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 51,697 lots, up 7,186 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 12,504 lots, unchanged; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 344 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 423.75 cents/bushel, up 4 cents; the total open interest is 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 51,186 contracts, down 15,017 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2253.33 yuan/ton, down 4.91 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1981.94 yuan/ton, down 0.33 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 44 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 113.33 yuan/ton, down 11.91 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 84 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 490 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 299 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 184 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown areas: In the U.S., it is 425.26 million hectares; in Brazil, it is 131 million hectares; in Argentina, it is 53 million hectares; in China, it is 295 million hectares; in Ukraine, it is 32 million hectares, all unchanged except for Ukraine which is up 1.5 million hectares [2]. - Forecasted yields: In the U.S., it is 36.44 million tons; in Brazil, it is 22.6 million tons; in Argentina, it is 7.5 million tons; in China, it is 44.3 million tons, all unchanged except for Brazil which is up 0.55 million tons [2]. - Corn inventories: In southern ports, it is 38.7 million tons, up 5.5 million tons; in northern ports, it is 93 million tons, down 22 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 203.6 million tons, down 8.2 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 4 million tons, down 2 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14,800 tons, down 1,140 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profits: In Shandong, it is 75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hebei, it is 89 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, it is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed: The sample feed corn inventory days are 24.44 days, down 0.05 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 122.31 million tons, up 3.04 million tons [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 53.19%, down 1.77%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 55.62%, down 1.12% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 8.32%, up 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.88%, up 0.06% [2]. - Corn option implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.28%, down 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.28%, down 0.13% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 20, the planting progress of the first - season corn in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's Paraná state was 94%, up from 90% last week [2]. - The Trump administration plans to provide a new round of aid funds to farmers affected by the trade war and bumper harvests and restart some core functions of the U.S. Department of Agriculture during the government shutdown [2].

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-10-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121380 | 0 11-12月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -230 | 30 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15140 | -70 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 127005 | 5694 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -38124 | -1705 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 250854 | -24 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 34419 | 1300 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 6252 | -24 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 26881 | -72 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 122150 | 50 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122150 | -50 | | | 上海电解镍: ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach or a bullish mindset. Zinc ore imports are rising as long - term agreement ores arrive at ports and smelters stockpile for winter. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees are down, sulfuric acid prices are falling, squeezing smelter profits and causing losses for some. New production capacity is being released, but refined zinc output growth is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the SHFE - LME ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season had a lackluster effect, with the real estate sector being a drag, while the automotive and home appliance sectors had some bright spots due to policy support. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium is low. LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and the spot premium has reached a 27 - year high, intensifying the supply - tight situation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 22,345 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan; the 11 - 12 - month contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,019.5 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars. - The total SHFE zinc open interest is 216,678 lots, down 13,155 lots; the net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 5,255 lots, up 8,190 lots. - The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 65,529 tons, up 320 tons; the SHFE inventory is 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons; the LME inventory is 35,300 tons, down 1,975 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,220 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan. - The ZN main contract basis is - 245 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 spread is 338.74 dollars/ton, up 39.4 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,920 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. - The zinc social inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons. - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. - The automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 14.19%, up 2.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 14.19%, up 2.16 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.42%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 9.31%, unchanged [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia to hold economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24th to 27th. - The Study Times published an article suggesting improving the linkage between fiscal interest subsidies and financial credit, promoting the coordination of regulatory and industrial policies, and building a long - term mechanism to expand consumption [3].

| | | ，现货升水维持400元/吨；LME库存小幅增加，现货升水小幅回升。操作上，建议暂时观望，或轻仓做多 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 。 免责声明 沪锡产业日报 2025-10-23 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 281230 | -450 11月-12月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -420 | -50 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price of raw sugar lacks the momentum to rebound due to the overall suppression of increased production, although the market's concerns have eased as the decline in the sugar - making ratio is relatively large. The domestic spot price continues to decline, with average trading volume, and the downstream demand is in a seasonal downturn. It is expected that the sugar sales progress will slow down later. However, the cost support for the futures price is gradually emerging, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5457 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31; the main contract position is 420,072 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2776. The number of warehouse receipts is 8196, with a month - on - month decrease of 117; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 72,687 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1619. The total forecast of effective warehouse receipts is 0, with no month - on - month change [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4166 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 29; that of Thai sugar is 4223 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 29. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5282 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 37; that of Thai sugar is 5356 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5730 yuan/ton, with no change; in Nanning, it is 5750 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; in Liuzhou, it is 5800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, with a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, with an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, with an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, with an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, with a decrease of 280,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 324.58 million tons, with a decrease of 49.82 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1367 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 251 yuan/ton, with an increase of 12. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1310 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 177 yuan/ton, with an increase of 12 [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons, with an increase of 4.41 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1775.8 million tons, with a decrease of 20.8 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.82%, with an increase of 1.97 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is also 9.82%, with an increase of 1.97 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.15%, with an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.17%, with a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2025, China's refined sugar output was 539,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 1.0984 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. The ICE raw sugar futures closed lower on Wednesday, hitting the lowest level since June. The market expects the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season to increase. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.14 cents, or 0.90%, to settle at 15.10 cents per pound. According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the second half of September 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 40.86 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; the sugar production was 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%, and the sugar - making ratio was 51.17%, higher than 47.73% in the same period of the previous year [2].