| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2026/1/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | 数据指标 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1229.000 | 51.4↑ EC次主力收盘价 1493.2 | +65.90↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2604-EC2606价差 | | -264.20 -15.90↓ EC2604-EC2608价差 -331.80 | +2.70↑ | | EC合约基差 | -35.10↓ | 630.31 | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 1499↑ | 40146 | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1859.31 | -94.88↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,294.32 | -10.95↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1457.86 | -116.26↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1208.75 | -1.10↓ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,588.19 | 5.59↑ | ...

联合〔2026〕712 号 联合资信评估股份有限公司关于 终止瑞达期货股份有限公司主体及"瑞达转债"债项信用等级的公告 受瑞达期货股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）委托，联合资信评估股份有限公司（以下简称 "联合资信"）对公司主体及相关债项进行了信用评级；公司主体长期信用等级为 AA，"瑞达转债" （以下简称"本期债券"）信用等级为 AA，评级展望为稳定。 公司发行的"瑞达转债"于 2020 年 6 月 29 日起息，到期兑付日为 2026 年 6 月 29 日。本期债 券设有条件赎回条款，在转股期间，如果公司 A 股股票连续三十个交易日中至少有十五个交易日 的收盘价不低于当期转股价格的 130%（含 130%）以及本次发行的可转债未转股余额不足 3000 万 元时，公司有权决定按照债券面值加当期应计利息的价格赎回全部或部分未转股的本期债券。 联合资信评估股份有限公司 二〇二六年一月二十八日 2025 年 11 月 13 日至 12 月 24 日，公司股票已有十五个交易日的收盘价格不低于"瑞达转债" 当期转股价格的 130%（即 26.42 元/股），已触发"瑞达转债"有条件赎回条款。公司于 2025 年 12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene production and capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month. The EPS operating rate increased significantly, while the operating rates of other downstream products mainly decreased. The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the visible inventory of styrene enters the seasonal accumulation stage, and the current inventory pressure is not large. Affected by the strong styrene spot, the profitability of integrated and non - integrated processes deepens. With the gradual resumption of plants, the tight supply - demand situation of styrene spot will ease. In terms of cost, due to the increased possibility of military conflict between the US and Iran, large - scale winter storms in the US, and the recent weakening of the US dollar, international oil prices have risen significantly recently. In the short term, the EB2603 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of styrene was 7785 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 136 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 980168 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 30183 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 440087 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 4053 lots. The net long positions were - 38718 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 10055 lots. The short positions of the top 20 holders were 478805 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 6002 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 1705 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 775 lots. The closing price of the March contract was 7785 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 136 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7748 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The mainstream price in the Northeast region was 7675 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The mainstream price in the South China region was 7935 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The mainstream price in the North China region was 7725 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream price in the East China region was 7890 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 701 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 419 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 776.29 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change. The CIF price of pure benzene in Taiwan was 284 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in Rotterdam was 917 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 18 US dollars/ton. The market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5900 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan/ton. The market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 5940 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 69.63%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.23 percentage points. The national inventory of styrene was 151210 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 9950 tons. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port was 10.06 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.71 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 58.71%, with a month - on - month increase of 4.66 percentage points. The operating rate of ABS was 66.8%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 percentage points. The operating rate of PS was 57.3%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage point. The operating rate of UPR was 38%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point. The operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 82.92%, with no month - on - month change [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, the overall output of Chinese styrene plants was 349,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72%. The plant capacity utilization rate was 69.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23%. From January 16th to 22nd, the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 1.2% month - on - month to 270,800 tons. As of January 22nd, the inventory of styrene plants was 151,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.17% compared to last week. As of January 26th, the inventory of styrene in the East China port was 100,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.59% compared to last week; the inventory of styrene in the South China port was 15,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% compared to last week. A 300,000 - ton plant in North China had a fault and stopped production last week, and the loads of some plants in the Northeast and South China were adjusted [2] 3.7 Profit Situation - As of January 26th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 682.07 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit of styrene was 1477.16 yuan/ton [2] 3.8 Device Situation - This week, the 450,000 - ton plant of Sinochem Quanzhou is planned to restart, the 450,000 - ton faulty plant of Bohua is about to start feeding and restarting, and the 300,000 - ton plant of Xuyang remains under maintenance. The operating loads of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS plants are adjusted in the short term, and the overall demand changes little [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo wide - range adjustments in the short term, and the focus range is 14 - 15 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 144,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,740 yuan; the 03 - 04 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,235 dollars/ton, a decrease of 355 dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 27,881 hands, a decrease of 12,238 hands [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings of Shanghai nickel is - 70,458 hands, a decrease of 1,190 hands; the LME nickel inventory is 285,726 tons, an increase of 174 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 50,794 tons, an increase of 2,614 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,788 tons, unchanged [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 44,822 tons, an increase of 2,323 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 146,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 146,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 214.32 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.36 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,228.62 million tons, a decrease of 44.76 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 75.53 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 99.61 million tons, an increase of 10.07 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.72 million tons, a decrease of 1.45 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 53.93 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6% year - on - year, achieving the first growth in four years [3]. - The US government shutdown is approaching, Trump talked with the governor of Minnesota and agreed to consider reducing the number of ICE [3]. - Fed officials are expected to pause rate cuts this week. There are obvious differences among officials on whether and when to continue rate cuts in the future [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Macroscopically, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in December 2025 increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6% year - on - year, achieving the first growth in four years. The US dollar has fallen to a four - year low [3]. - Fundamentally, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is on a downward trend. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota to 250 - 260 million tons next year, and the domestic trade base price is expected to rise significantly, causing concerns about tight raw material supply [3]. - On the smelting side, the nickel - iron output in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. China has large refined nickel production capacity, and with the recent rise in nickel prices and profitable production margins, the refined nickel output is expected to rise again [3]. - On the demand side, the profits of stainless steel plants have improved, and the production schedule is expected to be high. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [3]. - In terms of inventory, the domestic nickel inventory is on an upward trend, and the market mainly buys on dips. The spot premium is at a high level, and the overseas LME inventory continues to increase [3]. - Technically, the position is decreasing and the price is adjusting, and the long - position sentiment is cautious [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, globally and in Canada, the supply - demand pattern of rapeseed is relatively loose, which restricts its market price. In the domestic market, oil mills are in a shutdown state, supporting the current rapeseed meal spot price. Policy has an impact on the rapeseed and rapeseed meal markets. After continuous previous declines, rapeseed meal has rebounded at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the high - frequency data shows that the supply of Malaysian palm oil continues to decline this month, and exports have increased significantly in the first 25 days. India's cancellation of soybean oil purchase orders may turn to palm oil. Domestically, oil mills are in a shutdown state, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting its price. The basis of rapeseed oil remains high. Affected by the strengthening of palm oil, rapeseed oil continues to rise, with increased short - term fluctuations, and a short - term bullish approach is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9330 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is 59 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal is - 12 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 297029 lots, down 1269 lots; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 940606 lots, down 29805 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is - 11889 lots, up 2345 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is - 217128 lots, up 23127 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 625, unchanged; for rapeseed meal, it is 0, unchanged. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 646.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10226.25 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 7860.97 yuan/ton, up 49.86 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.91, down 0.01. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 790 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 263 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8840 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1280 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 850 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 560 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 25.25 million tons, down 2.15 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is not specified in the summary part. The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 0.2 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 27.8 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons. The monthly social consumer retail total of catering revenue is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.53%, up 0.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.53%, up 0.16%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.85%, down 1.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 13.67%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.11%, up 0.37%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 16.11%, up 0.39%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 20.97%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 16.7%, down 0.07% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On January 27, 2026 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed almost flat. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 0.40 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 646.70 Canadian dollars per ton. South American soybean is expected to have a high yield, and Brazilian soybeans have entered the early harvest stage, putting pressure on international soybean prices. However, the US soybean export data has improved, and the US soybean crushing remains strong to meet the demand for soybean oil in the expanding bio - fuel industry. The NOPA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest monthly record, supporting the US soybean market price [2].

现货价格持续上涨提振，盘面也同步偏强震荡，但高存栏压力也继续牵制盘面走势，增添市场波动，短多 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3048 | 1 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 7248 | -5631 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(5-9):(日,元/500千克) | -400 | -25 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 253789 | -7933 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 27 | 20 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 4.06 | 0.06 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | 1016 | 59 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 109.28 | -2.75 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 124.98 | 23.8 | | | 主产区平均价:蛋鸡苗(周,元/羽) ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 铁矿石产业链日报 2026/1/28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 783.00 | -5.00↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 564,613 | -6440↓ | | | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 18.5 | 0.00 I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -6834 | +8428↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,100.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 103.05 | -0.67↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 845 | -4↓ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 835 | -2↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 751 | -3↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 52 | + ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,123.00 | -3↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1744406 | +29747↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -82096 | -23693↓ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -46 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 38283 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 157 | -6↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,280.00 | -10↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,364 | -10↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,430.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,160.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 157.00 | -7↓ 杭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position short - term long - buying on dips, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of stable supply and cautious demand. Aluminum prices remain high due to macro - expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish. Suggest light - position short - term long - buying on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloys, the fundamentals are in a stage of sufficient supply and weak demand. Cast aluminum prices remain high - level volatile due to cost support. Suggest light - position short - term long - buying on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 25,640 yuan/ton, up 1,335 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 120 yuan, up 10 yuan; the main contract position is 362,833 lots, up 50,936 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum is - 63,980 lots, up 2,585 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.00, up 0.37; the Shanghai Aluminum inventory in the previous week is 197,053 tons, up 11,174 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipt is 142,829 tons, up 1,377 tons [2] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,811 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 151 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract position is 466,716 lots, down 14,519 lots; the total inventory of alumina is 222,487 tons, up 5,344 tons [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 23,785 yuan/ton, up 730 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 180 yuan, down 215 yuan; the main contract position is 8,845 lots, down 614 lots; the registered warehouse receipt in the previous week is 67,659 tons, up 125 tons; the inventory in the previous week is 72,433 tons, down 1,727 tons [2] - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum is 3,207 US dollars/ton, up 18.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 502,250 tons, down 3,025 tons; the LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipt is 22,750 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 5.71 US dollars/ton, up 1.6 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,260 yuan/ton, up 390 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum is 23,830 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 1,380 yuan/ton, down 945 yuan [2] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of alumina is - 256 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan [2] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 24,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy is 365 yuan/ton, down 580 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Pre - baked Anode**: The price in the northwest region is 5,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Alumina**: The monthly production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the monthly demand (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the monthly supply - demand balance is 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons; the monthly import volume is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons; the monthly export volume is 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the national monthly start - up rate is 83.49%, down 0.87%; the total monthly capacity utilization rate is 85.00%, down 1.51% [2] - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste is 18,400 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal waste is 18,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the monthly import volume of aluminum waste and scrap in China is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the monthly export volume is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly import volume is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the monthly export volume is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total monthly production capacity is 4,536.20 million tons, up 12.00 million tons; the monthly start - up rate is 98.31%, up 0.10%; the social inventory in the previous week is 74.20 million tons, up 2.70 million tons [2] - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly production is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 million tons, down 3.00 million tons [2] - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The monthly production is 68.40 million tons, down 1.60 million tons; the monthly export volume is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons; the total monthly built - in production capacity is 126.00 million tons, unchanged [2] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The monthly production is 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly production is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 29.38%, up 5.82%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.66%, up 3.78%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 19.88%, down 0.0298; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.85, down 0.2087 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The US consumer confidence index in January decreased by 9.7 points month - on - month to 84.5, hitting a new low since 2014 [2] - The US population growth in 2025 slowed down significantly, increasing by only 1.8 million people, with a growth rate of 0.5% [2] - The Fed is expected to pause rate cuts, and the path to resume rate cuts is unclear [2] - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in 2025 was 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [2] - At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans decreased by 963.6 billion yuan; the balance of real estate development loans decreased by 357.5 billion yuan; the balance of personal housing loans decreased by 676.8 billion yuan [2] - The US has dispatched a large naval fleet to the direction of Iran, but hopes not to use force [2]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,280 | -9↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1517650 | +9222↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -19,235 | +1060↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -21 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 184226 | -300↓ ...