降低预期。MA2605合约短线预计在2210-2300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2263 | 0 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -5 | -7 8034 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 830030 | -33561 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -165175 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7655 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓( ...

瑞达期货股份有限公司 | 证券代码：002961 | 证券简称：瑞达期货 | 公告编号：2026-009 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128116 | 债券简称：瑞达转债 | | 关于提前赎回"瑞达转债"实施暨即将停止转股的重要提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1、最后转股日：2026 年 1 月 16 日 2026 年 1 月 16 日是"瑞达转债"最后一个转股日，当日收市前，持有"瑞 达转债"的投资者仍可进行转股；2026 年 1 月 16 日收市后，未转股的"瑞达转 债"将停止转股。 2、截至 2026 年 1 月 13 日收市后，距离"瑞达转债"停止转股并赎回仅剩 3 个交易日。特提醒"瑞达转债"持有人务必仔细阅读本公告，充分了解相关风 险，注意最后转股时间，审慎作出投资决策。 特别提示： 1、赎回价格：101.118 元/张（含当期应计利息，当期年利率为 2.00%，且 当期利息含税），扣税后的赎回价格以中国证券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公 司（以下简称"中登公司"）核准的价格为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple convertible bonds, including Ruida Convertible Bond, are set for early redemption, with significant potential losses for investors who do not act in time [2][4][9]. Group 1: Ruida Convertible Bond Details - The last trading day for Ruida Convertible Bond is January 13, with a market price of 127.7 yuan, significantly higher than the redemption price of 101.12 yuan, indicating a potential loss of 20.81% for investors who fail to convert or sell [2][7]. - January 16 is the final conversion day for Ruida Convertible Bond, after which unconverted bonds will be forcibly redeemed at 101.12 yuan per bond [6][4]. - Ruida Futures issued 6.5 million convertible bonds at a face value of 100 yuan each in June 2020, with a six-year term. The bonds are subject to conditional redemption due to the stock price exceeding 130% of the conversion price [6]. Group 2: Other Convertible Bonds and Market Trends - Other convertible bonds, including Jinzong Convertible Bond, Zai22 Convertible Bond, Bo23 Convertible Bond, and HuGong Convertible Bond, are also facing forced redemption, with last trading days between January 14 and January 16 [9]. - The potential losses for investors holding these bonds range from 32.02% to 66.59% if they do not sell or convert in time [9]. - The convertible bond market is experiencing a contraction, with predictions indicating a continued decrease in market size, potentially reaching 1.6 trillion yuan by 2026 under neutral conditions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The last trading day for Ruida Convertible Bonds is January 13, with significant price differences leading to potential losses for investors who do not act in time [1][2][4]. Group 1: Ruida Convertible Bonds - Ruida Convertible Bonds will stop trading after January 13, and the last conversion day is January 16, after which unconverted bonds will be redeemed at 101.12 yuan per bond [2][4]. - As of January 13, the market price of Ruida Convertible Bonds is 127.7 yuan, indicating a potential loss of 20.81% for investors who fail to convert or sell [1][4]. - The unconverted proportion of Ruida Convertible Bonds is 22.15%, with a remaining balance of 179 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Other Convertible Bonds - Other convertible bonds such as Jinzong, Zai22, Bo23, and HuGong are also facing forced redemption, with last trading days ranging from January 14 to January 16 and redemption prices varying [5]. - Investors holding these convertible bonds may face losses of 38.16%, 66.59%, 35.31%, and 32.02% respectively if they do not act promptly [5]. - The market for convertible bonds is experiencing a contraction, with predictions indicating a potential reduction in the market size to approximately 160 billion yuan by 2026 under neutral conditions [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The probability of an increase in urea production is high due to the recovery of some previously overhauled plants and no planned shutdowns in the short term, despite possible short - term enterprise malfunctions. Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season with a lukewarm trading atmosphere, and downstream buyers are reluctant to accept high - priced goods, preferring to buy as needed. Industrial demand maintains rigid procurement, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates little. Although the inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly and the order collection of enterprises has improved significantly with rising prices, the de - stocking amplitude is limited due to the pre - increased inventory. The downstream chasing trend may slow down with the recent price increase, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1783 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 20 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 236,875 lots, up 4,468 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 20,138 lots, down 1,116 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 13,200 pieces, up 350 pieces [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Anhui are 1750 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu it is 1760 yuan/ton with no change; in Shandong it is 1750 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main contract basis is - 27 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The FOB Baltic price is 367.5 dollars/ton, up 12.5 dollars; the FOB China main port price is 402.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons week - on - week, a decline of 18.60%. Enterprise inventory is 1.0222 billion tons, up 3,000 tons week - on - week, an increase of 0.29%. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 2.93%. The daily urea output is 195,900 tons, up 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.17%, up 3.28%. The melamine operating rate is 54.35%, up 6.7%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 244 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 152 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons. The weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, down 1,900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, up 0.30 million tons week - on - week, a 0.29% increase, with small fluctuations and varying local inventory changes. As of January 8, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons week - on - week, a 18.60% decline, due to increased departure of port goods and slow factory - to - port rhythm. As of January 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3716 million tons, up 12,500 tons, a 0.92% increase, driven by the recovery of some previously overhauled plants [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is gradually digesting potential negative factors, but the suppression from the equity market trend and fundamental recovery still exists. The short - term profit - taking demand has increased, and the upward pace may slow down. The liquidity pressure in the bond market is expected to ease. In the short term, the necessity of further implementing loose monetary policies has decreased. The issuance scale of government bonds in the first quarter is expected to be roughly the same as that in the same period of 2025, and the supply - demand contradiction of ultra - long bonds still exists. Under the interweaving of multiple factors, it is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume Changes**: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别为107.845（+0.06%）、105.625（+0.05%）、102.340（0%）、111.200（+0.3%）；成交量方面，T主力成交量64381（-8052），TF主力成交量64931（+10966），TS主力成交量37294（+9140），TL主力成交量99196（-14131）[2] - **Spread Changes**: Various futures spreads showed different changes, such as TL2603 - 2606价差为 - 0.10（+0.01），T2603 - 2606价差为0.09（+0.02）等 [2] - **Position Changes**: T主力持仓量230631（-2956），TF主力持仓量138859（-4328），TS主力持仓量70788（+1695），TL主力持仓量146919（-1308）；各合约前20名多空头及净空仓也有相应变化 [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Price Changes**: The net prices of several CTD bonds showed different changes, such as 250018.IB (6y) at 100.2091 (-0.0062), 220025.IB (6y) at 99.0955 (+0.2328) [2] - **Active Bond Yield Changes**: The yields of active bonds with different maturities changed, with 1y at 1.2700 (-3.50bp), 3y at 1.4575 (+0.25bp), etc. [2] 3.3 Short - term Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rate Changes**: Silver - pledged overnight at 1.3486 (+6.86bp), Shibor overnight at 1.3160 (+4.40bp), etc. LPR rates for 1y and 5y remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 861 billion, the maturity scale was 500 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net investment of 361 billion [2] 3.5 Industry News - **Domestic Policy**: The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination, including loan interest - subsidy policies for service providers, small and medium - sized enterprises, etc. [2] - **Domestic Inflation**: In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest since March 2023. Core CPI increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points [2] - **Overseas Situation**: The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in January 2026 was completely dashed. In December 2025, the non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On January 15, at 03:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; at 17:00, the ECB will release the economic bulletin [4]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the corn industry dated January 12, 2026, covering various aspects of the corn and corn starch markets [1][2]. 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2,290 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,566 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan [2]. - Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is -18 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (3 - 5) is -30 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1,092,707 lots, up 42,864 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 199,117 lots, up 1,957 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn is -161,288 lots, down 14,814 lots; for corn starch is -40,016 lots, up 664 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn is 38,075 lots, up 1,520 lots; for corn starch is 12,477 lots, unchanged [2]. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 329 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 445.25 cents/bushel, down 0.5 cents; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly) is 1,537,728 contracts, down 5,287 contracts [2]. - Non - commercial net long positions in CBOT corn (weekly) is 60,112 contracts, up 6,920 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn is 2,354.41 yuan/ton, up 2.55 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2,570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - CIF price of imported corn is 2,064.44 yuan/ton, down 1.78 yuan; international freight for imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis of the main corn contract is 64.41 yuan/ton, down 24.45 yuan; basis of the main corn starch contract is 4 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 424 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 626 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2]. - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is -218 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the US is 425.53 million tons, down 1.58 million tons; sown area is 36.44 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; sown area is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; sown area is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; sown area is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Ukraine is 32 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly) is 77.2 million tons, up 11.4 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 354 million tons, up 4.6 million tons [2]. - Corn inventory at northern ports (weekly) is 175 million tons, up 18 million tons [2]. Industry and Downstream Situation - Import volume of corn (monthly) is 36 million tons, up 30 million tons; export volume of corn starch (monthly) is 19,170 tons, up 6,390 tons [2]. - Feed production (monthly) is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong is -9 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Hebei is 61 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is -49 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 30.1 days, up 0.18 days [2]. - Deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 138.17 million tons, down 0.11 million tons [2]. - Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 62.04%, down 1.46 percentage points; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 59.37%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 11.37%, up 0.72 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.6%, up 0.25 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 11.01%, down 2.12 percentage points; for at - the - money put options is 11.01%, down 2.12 percentage points [2]. 2. Industry News - As of January 7, the sown area of the 2025/26 corn season in Argentina reached 89.1% of the total expected area (7.8 million hectares), up from 84.2% a week ago but still 3.2% behind last year, indicating slower sowing this year [2]. - US corn has entered the export peak season, with relatively high short - term supply pressure. However, good US corn export conditions support its price. The market is awaiting the USDA monthly supply - demand report and quarterly grain inventory report [2]. - In China, the grain - selling progress in the Northeast production area is faster than the same period last year, and the traditional selling window has shortened, but there has been no large - scale supply. The regulatory reserve corn has not been implemented, while the supply from CGS and other sources continues to increase. CGS Inner Mongolia Branch has supplied 200,000 tons in a single week. Recently, snowfall has limited the supply from the grass - roots level, and traders' purchases are small. Deep - processing enterprises have slightly raised purchase prices [2]. - In the North China and Huanghuai production areas, as the Spring Festival approaches, the grain - selling speed of grass - roots farmers has not accelerated significantly. As the amount of dry grain increases and the quality improves, traders' willingness to build inventories of high - quality corn has gradually increased, and grass - roots trading is relatively stable. Feed - using enterprises have sufficient safety inventories, and their purchasing mentality is cautious. Processing enterprises adjust purchase prices according to the arrival volume [2]. 3. Core Views Corn - The corn futures price has increased with rising positions recently, showing a relatively strong performance, but the driving force for continuous growth remains to be observed. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Starch - As of January 7, the total corn starch inventory of enterprises is 112.5 million tons, up 0.20 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14%. The enterprise inventory is still at a high level in the same period, and the overall supply pressure remains. However, after the sharp increase in tapioca starch prices, some downstream customers have resumed purchasing corn starch, increasing its demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of pre - Spring Festival downstream stocking on corn starch prices. Recently, driven by the rise in corn prices, starch prices have also increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. 4. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to Mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rates, and inventory levels on Thursday and Friday [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the HC2605 contract fluctuated with a bullish bias. The macro - environment is positive, with the National Business Work Conference from January 10th to 11th stating that the national business system in 2026 will focus on eight aspects, including optimizing the implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy and promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to increase slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.05%. Terminal demand is relatively stable, and inventories continue to decline. Overall, the positive macro - atmosphere and positive market expectations support the bullish trend of hot - rolled coils. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 axis. The reference view is to go short on pullbacks and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,311 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,427,498 lots, up 10,408 lots [2]. - Net positions of the top 20 in the HC contract: - 8,155 lots, down 1,248 lots [2]. - HC5 - 10 contract spread: - 19 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 139,537 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 146 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,330 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - HC main contract basis: 19 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 834 yuan/wet ton, up 14 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 16,279.94 million tons, up 418 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 43.98 million tons, down 4.62 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 645.86 million tons, up 2.03 million tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 140.75 million tons, up 14.14 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 79.33%, up 0.37 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 86.06%, up 0.78 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 305.51 million tons, up 1 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 78.05%, up 0.26 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 77.32 million tons, down 5 million tons [2]. - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 290.81 million tons, up 2.17 million tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 6,987 million tons, down 213 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 948 million tons, up 20 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 3.5316 million vehicles, up 0.1729 million vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 3.429 million vehicles, up 0.1069 million vehicles [2]. - Air - conditioner production: 15.026 million units, up 0.822 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.442 million units, up 0.654 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 12.013 million units, up 0.978 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that in 2026, China's industrial economy has strong resilience, great potential, and high vitality, and will focus on four aspects: "stabilize", "expand", "innovate", and "increase" [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, in December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.261 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 14%; the cumulative annual retail sales were 23.744 million vehicles, an increase of 3.8%. In December, the retail sales of new - energy passenger cars were 1.337 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, and the cumulative annual sales were 12.809 million vehicles, an increase of 17.6% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades on dips, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For Shanghai aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and cautious demand. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trades, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and off - season demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades on dips, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24,650 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,866 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,136 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 23,340 yuan/ton, up 355 yuan [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum was - 85 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; that of alumina was - 197 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy was - 290 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan [2] - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum were 379,081 lots, up 190,088 lots; that of alumina were 545,795 lots, up 8,133 lots; that of cast aluminum alloy were 21,990 lots, up 342 lots [2] - **Inventories**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 51,775 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 497,825 tons, down 1,925 tons; Shanghai aluminum SHFE inventories were 143,828 tons, up 14,010 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 73,288 tons, down 505 tons; Shanghai aluminum SHFE warrants were 97,413 tons, up 6,501 tons [2] - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 61,512 lots, down 14,748 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.86, down 0.01; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy in SHFE were 69,285 tons, down 637 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 24,340 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,580 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 24,060 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan [2] - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 610 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 8.30 US dollars/ton, up 14.67 US dollars; the basis of alumina was - 286 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Prices**: The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region was 5,910 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; that in Shandong metal scrap was 18,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] - **Production and Utilization Rates**: The alumina production was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 85.00%, down 1.51 percentage points; the alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 705.96 million tons, down 24.27 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance was 26.58 million tons, down 11.40 million tons [2] - **Trade Volume**: China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export volume was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons; the export volume of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the import volume was 23.24 million tons, up 4.31 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - related**: The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 66.90 million tons, up 0.70 million tons; the primary aluminum import volume was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons; the electrolytic aluminum total capacity was 4,536.20 million tons, up 12.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 98.31%, up 0.10 percentage points [2] - **Demand - related**: The aluminum product production was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons; the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons; the aluminum alloy production was 173.90 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The automobile production was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 21.09%, up 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.06%, up 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 33.65%, up 0.0890 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.70, up 0.0471 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points [2] - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in January 2026 was completely dashed. In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [2] - The State Council executive meeting deployed a series of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination [2] - The National Commerce Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, the national business system should focus on eight aspects of work [2] - In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.261 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. It is expected that the retail sales volume of the auto market in 2026 will remain flat, and new energy vehicles will grow by about 10% [2]

铁矿石产业链日报 2026/1/12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 822.50 | +8.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 654,834 | +14950↑ | | 期货市场 | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 20.5 | -1.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -25792 | -5534↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,600.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 109.1 | +0.64↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 881 | +6↑ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 877 | +5↑ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 776 | +2↑ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 55 | -3↓ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 10 ...