Core Points - The aquaculture sector experienced a decline of 1.31% on October 30, with Tianyu Biology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3986.9, down 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13532.13, down 1.16% [1] Stock Performance - Yisheng Co. (002458) closed at 9.03, up 0.33% with a trading volume of 97,800 shares and a turnover of 88.43 million yuan [1] - Xiantan Co. (002746) closed at 6.31, up 0.32% with a trading volume of 154,800 shares and a turnover of 97.81 million yuan [1] - Tianyu Biology (603717) closed at 8.73, down 3.64% with a trading volume of 155,200 shares and a turnover of 137 million yuan [2] - Huaying Agriculture (002321) closed at 2.77, down 3.15% with a trading volume of 424,400 shares and a turnover of 119 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector saw a net outflow of 188 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 141 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow and outflow for specific stocks included: - Jingji Zhinnong (000048) had a net inflow of 19.99 million yuan from main capital [3] - Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) had a net inflow of 7.96 million yuan from main capital [3] - Yisheng Co. (002458) had a net inflow of 3.79 million yuan from main capital [3]

Economic News - The largest offshore emergency drill in northern China's waters commenced on October 28, 2025, testing the country's deep-sea wind power emergency rescue capabilities [1] - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to September, state-owned enterprises generated total revenue of 613,290.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [1] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation indicated that the total social logistics cost for the first three quarters reached 14.2 trillion yuan, growing by 4.3% year-on-year [1] - The Xiamen government announced a new household registration policy effective November 1, 2025, aimed at optimizing residency conditions [1] Company News - Three squirrels announced a price adjustment for certain products effective November 1, with price increases ranging from 0.2 yuan to 10 yuan across 35 products [4] - Tongrentang made significant progress in liquid preparation capacity, with a new production line expected to submit GMP compliance checks by the end of the year [4] - BYD launched its first K-car model, Racco, designed specifically for the Japanese market, with pre-sales planned for summer 2026 [4] - The company Guokai Military Industry signed a contract worth 4.66 billion yuan for military trade products, expected to positively impact its performance [4] Industry Insights - The "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" outlines clear economic and social development goals, including achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [5][6] - The plan emphasizes the importance of enhancing the financial sector, improving capital market functions, and supporting emerging industries [6][7] - It highlights the need for a strong domestic market and increased consumer spending, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and enhancing public service spending [8] - The plan also focuses on accelerating the development of new energy systems and increasing the share of renewable energy supply [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The release of the planning document is expected to enhance market understanding of China's economic direction, boosting confidence in Chinese assets [9][10] - The report suggests focusing on the technology sector, particularly in areas of innovation, as a key investment opportunity [10] - It also indicates that sectors such as cyclical industries, new energy, and military industries are expected to maintain high levels of activity, presenting good investment prospects [10]

Core Insights - The aquaculture sector experienced a slight increase of 0.07% on October 29, with Luo Niushan leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4016.33, up 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13691.38, up 1.95% [1] Aquaculture Sector Performance - Luo Niushan (000735) closed at 7.17, with a rise of 4.98% and a trading volume of 686,700 shares [1] - Yisheng Co. (002458) closed at 9.00, up 1.12%, with a trading volume of 119,500 shares [1] - Xiantan Co. (002746) closed at 6.29, up 0.96%, with a trading volume of 164,100 shares [1] - Shengnong Development (002299) closed at 16.91, up 0.96%, with a trading volume of 105,700 shares [1] - New Hope (000876) closed at 9.78, up 0.31%, with a trading volume of 225,700 shares [1] - Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) closed at 18.28, up 0.27%, with a trading volume of 383,700 shares [1] - Muyuan Foods (002714) closed at 50.40, down 0.04%, with a trading volume of 216,600 shares [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The aquaculture sector saw a net outflow of 70.05 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 89.02 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow was observed in Luo Niushan, with a net inflow of 72.65 million yuan, despite a net outflow from retail and speculative investors [3] - Other companies like Xiantan Co. and Zhengbang Technology experienced mixed capital flows, with some seeing net outflows from institutional and speculative investors [3]

Group 1 - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a volatile upward trend on October 29, with the highest "pig content" agricultural ETF (159275) reaching a peak intraday increase of 0.81% and closing up 0.51% [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Blue Biological, which hit the daily limit, Meino Biological with over 8% increase, Luoniushan up 6%, and Shennong Seed Industry rising over 5% [1] - The current valuation of the agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is relatively low, indicating a good time for allocation, with the market's highest "pig content" ETF (159275) having a price-to-book ratio of 2.57, at the 30.08% percentile of the last decade [3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" measures in the pig industry have been intensified since May, with multiple meetings held by the Ministry of Agriculture, the National Development and Reform Commission, and industry associations to control production capacity and reduce weights [1][4] - It is expected that the pig price will enter a new upward trend in the second half of next year due to accelerated capacity reduction in the fourth quarter [1][4] - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with a significant portion (40.25%) of its holdings in the pig farming industry, higher than similar ETFs [8]

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue at 25.937 billion yuan, down 9.76% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.781 billion yuan, down 65.02% year-on-year [1] - The company is actively pursuing international expansion in its poultry business, particularly in the meat chicken sector, with a focus on organizational reform and establishing dedicated teams for overseas operations [2] - The company's financial structure has improved, with a debt ratio of 49.4% as of Q3 2025, and it has maintained a strong commitment to shareholder returns through consistent cash dividends [3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 75.788 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.03% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.256 billion yuan, down 18.29% year-on-year [1] - The company expects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 104.797 billion yuan, 112.944 billion yuan, and 119.928 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -0.06%, +7.77%, and +6.18% respectively [4] - Projected net profits for the same period are 7.751 billion yuan, 13.250 billion yuan, and 11.875 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -16.03%, +70.94%, and -10.37% respectively [4] Operational Highlights - The company sold 27.67 million pigs, 948 million meat chickens, and over 37 million meat ducks in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The poultry division has been reorganized into three business units and one independent operating unit to enhance operational efficiency [2] Shareholder Returns - Since its listing at the end of 2015, the company has implemented 14 cash dividend distributions, totaling 28.1 billion yuan, with a cash dividend rate of nearly 60% [3] - The company plans to implement cash dividends in Q4 2025, with the distribution ratio to be determined based on industry and operational conditions [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an expectation of performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% in the next 6 months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous decline in pig prices, with significant downward trends observed in September 2025. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 30.06 CNY/kg, 13.81 CNY/kg, and 24.50 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of -10.62%, -3.79%, and -1.92% [16][19]. - The supply side indicates an increase in pig slaughtering due to cooler weather, leading to higher market supply and pressure on prices. However, demand was slightly boosted by holiday preparations, although overall consumption remained cautious [19][24]. - The report anticipates that the ongoing policy adjustments and the current low price environment will accelerate the reduction of production capacity, with a potential price rebound expected in the second half of 2026 [30][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand Performance - The average price of live pigs has dropped to 10.90 CNY/kg as of October 20, 2025, following a consistent decline post the National Day holiday [16][19]. - The supply of pigs has increased due to higher slaughtering rates and larger weights, while demand has been limited by slow inventory turnover of frozen products [19][24]. Capacity Change Trends - As of the end of September 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.35 million, a slight decrease of 0.07% from the previous month, indicating a trend of capacity reduction in the industry [24][30]. - The report notes that the average profitability for self-bred pigs is -185.68 CNY per head, with external pig purchases resulting in a loss of -289.07 CNY per head, highlighting the increasing financial strain on producers [30][24]. Future Market Cycle Predictions - The report emphasizes that capacity regulation driven by policy will remain a central theme in the near future, with expectations for the elimination of outdated production capacity and improved profitability for leading firms [30][24]. - The industry valuation has shown some recovery but remains below historical averages, suggesting a safety margin for investments in leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and others [30][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][3] Core Views - The company has shown steady improvement in breeding costs and production metrics, maintaining a leading cost advantage in the industry. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 75.789 billion yuan, which is roughly flat year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.256 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.29% [1][9] - The company continues to focus on its dual main business of pig and chicken farming, with a robust cash dividend policy. In Q3 2025, the company plans to distribute 3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.99 billion yuan, which accounts for 38% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters [3][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 25.937 billion yuan, down 9.76% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.781 billion yuan, down 65.02% year-on-year. The decline in performance is primarily attributed to lower product sales prices compared to the high base from the previous year [1][9] - The company has effectively controlled costs, with the production cost of piglets dropping to 260 yuan per head, and the comprehensive cost of raising meat pigs around 12.2-12.4 yuan per kilogram, maintaining a cost advantage in the industry [1][9] Production and Operational Metrics - The company has made significant improvements in breeding performance, with the PSY (Pigs per Sow per Year) reaching 27 heads and the market rate for meat pigs stabilizing at 93%. The chicken farming sector also maintains a high market rate of 95% [2][3] - The company sold a total of 27.67 million pigs and 948 million chickens in the first three quarters of 2025, with fresh sales accounting for 17% of total chicken sales [3][22] Financial Health - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 49.42%. The net operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 8.199 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 35.9% [2][18] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 12.82%, down 3.51 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.15%, down 1.65 percentage points year-on-year [12][18]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the swine industry is entering a de-stocking cycle, while the beef cattle sector continues to experience an upward trend in demand and pricing [2][3] Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine sector is witnessing accelerated de-stocking driven by policy and market dynamics, presenting a good opportunity for investment [3][43] - As of Q3 2025, China's pig output reached 530 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with pork production at 43.68 million tons, up 3.0% year-on-year [10][13] - The average price of pigs in October 2025 dropped to 10.84 yuan/kg, a significant decline of 40.28% year-on-year, marking a new low for the year [10][13] Group 2: Beef Cattle Industry - The beef cattle supply is contracting, with the cycle of demand expected to continue its upward trajectory until 2027 [4][49] - In Q3 2025, the number of beef cattle in China was 99.32 million heads, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, while beef production reached 5.5 million tons, up 3.3% year-on-year [49][51] - The average price of beef in September 2025 was 70.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.36% [59] Group 3: Poultry Industry - The white chicken sector is experiencing a gradual increase in demand, with the output of white feathered chickens expected to rise to 90.3 million heads in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [94][98] - The rolling update of grandparent stock for white feathered chickens is projected to decline, which will support an increase in chicken prices in 2026 [100] Group 4: Seed Industry - Grain prices are expected to stabilize and rise due to various factors, including U.S.-China tariff disturbances and climate impacts [6] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is anticipated to accelerate, supported by an increase in the number of approved varieties [6] Group 5: Pet Industry - The pet food export volume in China increased by 7.55% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating strong performance from leading companies [7] - Domestic pet consumption is expected to grow due to increasing companionship demand and emotional value associated with pet ownership [7]

Group 1 - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a market-wide pullback, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) closing down by 0.7% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including animal health, broiler farming, and agricultural product processing, saw significant declines, with Bio-Stock dropping by 4.06% and several others falling over 2% [3] - The overall trend in pig prices remains downward, with current prices for fat pigs nearing 11 yuan/kg and weaned piglets dropping to around 150 yuan/head, indicating a phase of comprehensive losses in the industry [3] Group 2 - The agricultural sector's valuation is currently at a relatively low level, suggesting a good time for investment, with the agricultural ETF's index price-to-book ratio at 2.57, positioned at the 30.08 percentile over the past decade [3] - Guosen Securities is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle by 2025, highlighting the potential for domestic beef and raw milk markets to rise [4] - The industry is expected to undergo a quality improvement and efficiency enhancement trend, with outdated capacities gradually being eliminated, leading to an increase in market share for financially stable producers [4] Group 3 - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, with major holdings including leading companies in the sector, and approximately 40% exposure to pig-related stocks [5] - The index covers a wide range of industries within the agricultural sector, providing a comprehensive opportunity to capture the recovery of the entire agricultural value chain [5] - The ETF is the first and only one tracking the CSI Agricultural Index, which was established on December 31, 2004, and published on December 12, 2016 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the company as a leading player in pig and chicken farming, leveraging its industry-leading cost control advantages and stable capacity release to achieve continuous profit growth. The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be 6.5 billion and 9 billion respectively, with a strong recommendation for investment [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 75.788 billion, a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.256 billion, down 18% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 25.94 billion, a decline of 9.76%, with a net profit of 1.78 billion, down 65.02% year-on-year. The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 49.4%, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [4][6]. Business Segments - The company achieved a significant increase in pig production, with 8.38 million pigs sold in Q3, up 16.5% year-on-year. The comprehensive cost of pig farming was approximately 6.1 yuan per jin. The company also reported a recovery in chicken prices, with sales of 350 million chickens in Q3, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, and an average selling price of 11.9 yuan per kilogram [9][10]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 1.99 billion (including tax). The company continues to lower its debt ratio, which is currently at a relatively low level compared to peers, thereby enhancing financial safety and risk resilience [9][10].