Key Takeaways Major U.S. banks saw strong Q3 IB revenue growth across advisory and capital markets.Executives highlighted robust deal pipelines and improving M&A sentiment through 2025.Management cautioned that sustained IB growth depends on stable rates and macro conditions.Recently, major U.S. banks reported their third-quarter results, showing a surge in investment banking (IB) revenues across the board. This marks the second consecutive quarter of improvement, reinforcing signs that dealmaking is finall ...

One of Goldman’s most prominent London-based investment bankers, Michael Marsh, is set to depart the bank. https://t.co/xdD6mMTnZa ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs recommends investors focus on Chinese companies expanding internationally, driven by a weaker yuan, cost advantages, and China's robust global supply chains as growth catalysts [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Goldman Sachs identified 25 top picks, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd, and BYD Co Ltd, as key beneficiaries of the "going global" trend [1] - These companies, spanning e-commerce, capital goods, and healthcare, have gained nearly 40% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 29% and the CSI 300 Index's 16% rise [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth Projections - The bank expects overseas expansion to accelerate earnings growth by about 1.5% annually through 2028 as firms diversify beyond China's saturated domestic market [3] - Alibaba's overseas revenue doubled to 13% in 2023 from 7% in 2021, while CATL's increased to 30% from 21%, indicating rising global competitiveness [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - Goldman acknowledged that potential 100% U.S. tariffs under Trump's trade agenda could reduce short-term profits by around 10%, but international diversification should mitigate this impact over time [4] Group 4: Alibaba's Performance and Projections - Alibaba's stock gained 97% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the NYSE Composite index's over 12% returns, driven by its cloud unit and AI model integration [5] - Goldman Sachs raised its cloud revenue growth forecasts to 31–38% through fiscal 2028, citing advancements in multimodal AI models and a diversified chip supply [6] - Daiwa Securities projected Alibaba Cloud revenue to climb 30% year-over-year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with operating losses expected to peak soon [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current scale of AI investment is sustainable and not overheated, indicating a robust macro story for AI infrastructure development [1][3][6] - Goldman Sachs' latest report suggests that AI-related investments currently account for less than 1% of the US GDP, which is significantly lower than historical peaks in other technology cycles [7] - The report anticipates that productivity gains from AI will generate $8 trillion in capital income for US companies, far exceeding the total current and foreseeable AI investment [2][7] Group 2 - Since mid-2023, there has been a significant acceleration in AI infrastructure investment, with an estimated $300 billion in revenue growth for US companies in AI-related infrastructure by 2025 [4] - The report highlights two main reasons supporting continued AI capital expenditure: significant productivity improvements and increasing demand for computing power [5] - It is projected that the application of generative AI will enhance US labor productivity by 15% over the next decade, with AI applications showing potential productivity increases of 25-30% [5]

对于当前关税战的情况，美国高盛集团警告所有美国人，到2025年年底，美国消费者可能将承担55%的关税成本。 意料之内的是，特朗普对高盛集团的报告十分愤怒。其已经在社交媒体上发文，称高盛经济师"应该换人"。但事实上，高盛集团的预估，仍旧太过乐观。 玉渊潭天指出，自今年7月起，来自美国的粮食运输船在该码头靠岸艘次已降为0。如果中国在11月中旬之前仍未重返美国市场，美国损失的对华大豆订单可 能高达1600万吨。 要知道，对于美国豆农而言，失去中国，就等于失去半个市场。 数据显示，2024年美国出口大豆金额达245.8亿美元，位居美国农产品出口首位，其中中国购买量超一半，价值126.4亿美元。 然而，随着中美贸易摩擦升级，中国已大幅减少从美国进口大豆，转而从巴西和阿根廷采购。 5月以来，同一码头每月平均有40多艘来自阿根廷、巴西、乌拉圭等南美国家的粮食运输船靠岸，这些船只90%运输的都是大豆。 而这一切的根源，都可以追溯到特朗普发动的关税战。 对于这一现实情况，特朗普已经恼羞成怒。10月14日，特朗普在社交媒体上的一番发言再次引爆了中美贸易这个火药桶。 特朗普直言中国"故意不购买美国的大豆，使美国豆农面临困难"，并将 ...

Core Insights - The earnings season has commenced, with major banks and American Express reporting strong consumer spending and credit metrics despite ongoing tariffs and inflation [1] Banking Sector - Bank stocks increased by 2.3% over the week, with J.P. Morgan reporting Q3 2025 earnings that highlighted consumer strength, showing debit and card volumes up approximately 9% year over year [6] - J.P. Morgan's net charge-offs reached $2.6 billion, with an additional $810 million in reserve builds, indicating conservative provisioning [7] - Goldman Sachs reported net revenue of $15.18 billion for Q3 2025, with CEO David Solomon emphasizing AI as a core component of the firm's strategy [8] - Citigroup's revenue was $22.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 9%, driven by investments in new products and digital assets [9] Payments Sector - American Express noted that Gen Z and millennials account for 36% of total card spending, with retail spending up 12% and restaurant spending increasing by 9% [10][11] - Mastercard introduced the Payment Optimization Platform (POP) to enhance approval rates for merchants, showing early tests indicating a 9% to 15% increase in conversions [12] FinTech Developments - Affirm is expanding its buy now, pay later network through partnerships with Fanatics and FreshBooks, while launching a "0% Days" campaign for interest-free holiday financing [13] - Klarna is expanding its partnership with Google to support the new Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), reflecting efforts towards intelligent commerce and automation [14]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs is expanding its infrastructure financing business by forming a new team to capitalize on investment opportunities presented by artificial intelligence (AI) [1] Group 1: Business Expansion - The new team will operate under the Global Banking and Markets division and will focus on AI infrastructure loans, renewable energy, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and defense-related projects [1] - The team is led by John Greenwood, indicating a strategic leadership choice to drive this initiative [1] Group 2: Market Demand - The expansion aims to meet the growing financing needs of governments and corporations in the rapidly evolving infrastructure sector [1] - This move reflects Goldman Sachs' proactive approach to positioning itself in the AI and energy transition industries, seeking to capture a larger share of the global infrastructure financing market [1]

【环球网财经综合报道】近期，AI领域的巨额资本开支引发市场关注，但其可持续性也招致疑虑。针对这一担忧，高盛在最新研报中明确指出：当 前AI投资规模远未过热，这一投资水平具备坚实的可持续基础，意味着AI基础设施建设的宏观故事依然稳健。 报告指出，尽管AI基础设施投资在名义金额上屡创新高，但与历史上的重大技术周期相比仍显"克制"。自2023年中以来，AI投资持续加速，仅2025 年，公开美国企业在AI相关基础设施上的收入增量就达到约3000亿美元。 然而，高盛强调，历史上铁路、电气化、IT等技术周期的投资高峰占GDP比重高达2-5%，而当前美国AI投资占GDP的比例尚不足1%，远低于历史峰 值。这表明，当前的投入规模远未达到"过热"状态。 最为关键的论据在于经济效益。高盛测算，生成式AI带来的生产力提升将为美国经济创造20万亿美元的现值，其中高达8万亿美元将作为资本收益流 向美国企业。 这一预期收益，将远超当前和未来可预见的AI投资总额。报告指出，即使在悲观或乐观的不同假设下，这一收益区间也在5-19万亿美元，显著高于 投资成本。更重要的是，这一测算尚未计入海外利润、新兴利润池或通用人工智能（AGI）可能带来的巨 ...

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley CEOs are slotted to attend Hong Kong’s annual summit for global finance leaders, just as US-China tensions reignite and a slew of credit losses weigh on global banks https://t.co/oFJkXVLqaW ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China FX and rates markets**, analyzing the impact of external demand, domestic economic conditions, and tariff risks on the financial landscape. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and External Demand** - External demand continues to support economic growth, with robust export growth exceeding expectations in September despite a softening of domestic demand in July and August. A structural tailwind in high-tech manufacturing, particularly in AI-related industries, is expected to sustain export momentum in the coming months [2][2][2] - The "around 5%" growth target for the year remains on track, supported by upcoming policy implementations, including RMB 500 billion in new financing instruments to cushion domestic weaknesses [2][2][2] 2. **Tariff Risks and FX Management** - The latest tariff threats from the US introduce uncertainty, but it is believed that both sides will likely pull back from aggressive policies. The balance of risk is skewed towards a managed decline of USD/CNY, with the PBOC maintaining firm management of daily fixing [2][2][2] - CNY resilience has persisted despite tariff risks, with USD/CNY remaining stable compared to significant depreciation during the 2018-19 tariff hikes. This reflects a preference for FX stability to discourage capital outflows [2][2][2] 3. **CGB Market Dynamics** - CGB yields experienced a bull flattening due to tariff-driven growth concerns, with expectations for 10-year CGB yields to hover around 1.8% over the next 12 months. The urgency for renewed CGB purchases by the PBOC is limited, as over 80% of the government bond issuance quota for the year has been utilized [3][3][3] - A dual cut in Q4 is forecasted, consisting of a 10 basis point policy rate cut and a 50 basis point RRR cut, contingent on economic slowdown or escalated US-China tensions [3][3][3] 4. **Foreign Exchange Valuations and Technicals** - The CNY appreciated against the USD in September before a modest depreciation amid renewed tariff concerns. The countercyclical factor narrowed from August to September, indicating shifts in FX policy response [5][6][6] - The carry-to-volatility ratio for USD/CNH remained elevated, suggesting a strong momentum to buy USD and sell CNH, adjusted for volatility [19][20][20] 5. **Fundamentals and Trade Balance** - China's trade balance fell from July to August due to a lower goods trade surplus, while travel exports edged up in August 2025, reaching approximately 155% of 2019 levels [31][35][35] - The FX conversion ratio has remained consistently below previous years since mid-2022, indicating a potential shift in FX inflows related to goods trade [34][34][34] Additional Important Insights - The PBOC injected additional liquidity into the interbank market in September, with overnight repo rates largely remaining below the OMO target [74][78][78] - The net issuance of central government bonds was around RMB 728 billion in September 2025, with local governments utilizing 78% of their general bond issuance quota as of August 2025 [85][88][88] - Despite high volumes of CGB issuance, there has been continued selling pressure from funds, foreign investors, and securities companies [115][115][115] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the China FX and rates markets.