从市场角度来看，高盛将 7 万至 10 万人之间的非农数据描述为对股市最有利的结果，这符合经济持续 扩张且不引发通胀担忧或威胁宽松周期的预期。这样的结果将支持美国经济正在逐渐放缓而非突然停滞 的观点。 相比之下，若非农数据低于 5 万人，将被解读为低于经济估算的盈亏平衡就业增长率，可能会引发投资 者对增长急剧放缓的担忧，从而令市场不安。在另一个极端情况下，高盛表示，若就业人数超过 12.5 万人，可能会促使市场重新评估美联储首次降息的时机，将预期推迟至 6 月。 高盛在致客户的一份报告中表示，预计非农就业人数增长约 70000 人，这与目前的主流共识基本一致。 尽管非正式的市场"传闻"指向轻微的上行风险，但该行认为，若结果接近预期，将强化现有的宏观叙 事，而非破坏它。 市场目前定价今年美联储将有两次完整的降息，预计首次 25 个基点的降息将在 4 月下旬左右。高盛表 示，劳动力数据需要出现"相当剧烈"的上行或下行意外，才能显著提前或推迟这一时间点。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛表示，即将公布的美国非农就业报告不太可能实质性改变市场对美联储政策的 预期，除非数据出现重大意外，因为目前的市场定价已牢牢锚定在年中开始宽 ...

2026年全球市场开局强劲。但投资者可能会在本周五面临今年第一个真正的考验——美国劳工部将于北京时间今晚21点半公布12月就业数 据。而在同一天，美国最高法院还将就美国总统特朗普大部分关税的合法性做出最终裁决。 期权市场的交易员们目前正严阵以待，准备迎接可能是今年迄今为止波动性最大的一个交易日 ——标普500指数预计将出现大幅波动。根据 盈透证券首席市场策略师Steve Sosnick的说法，以周五到期的平值合约的定价估算，标普500指数周五预计将出现上下至少0.9%的波动。 Sosnick还质疑投资者是否已足够谨慎。他在一则评论中表示，"相对平静的市场意味着仍有一些意外发生的可能性。" 非农前瞻：两个多月来最"靠谱"的美国就业数据要来了？ 今晚这份非农报告之所以备受瞩目，在一定程度上或许是因为在不少业内人士看来，这或许是美国政府去年10月经历史上最长停摆以来所出 炉的"第一份相对靠谱的就业数据"。这也令这份报告的重要性不言而喻 ——今晚数据要么会巩固市场对美联储本月维持利率不变的预期， 要么会增强市场对美联储可能连续第四次降息的看法…… Natixis北美美国利率策略主管John Briggs就表示，12月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December is highly anticipated, with expectations of a moderate recovery in the job market that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in January [1][4]. Employment Data Expectations - The consensus forecast for December non-farm employment is an increase of 70,000 to 75,000 jobs, a slight rise from November's 64,000 [1][5]. - Predictions for private sector job growth range from 23,000 to 155,000, with no institution forecasting negative growth [5]. - Factors influencing job growth include a potential boost from holiday retail hiring and a decrease in government employment due to hiring freezes [5]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5%, which could support the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [4][7]. - Some analysts predict a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.7%, which could prompt a 25 basis point rate cut [7]. - Broader labor market issues are emerging, with new graduates facing difficulties in job hunting, potentially underestimating the true unemployment situation [7][8]. Policy Implications - The upcoming non-farm report is crucial for the Fed's January policy meeting, with mixed opinions among decision-makers regarding rate cuts [9]. - Market pricing currently favors a pause in rate cuts, but strong employment data could shift this outlook [9]. Market Reactions and Strategies - Wall Street is preparing for potential volatility, with the S&P 500 index expected to fluctuate around 1.2% on the data release day [10]. - Scenarios for employment data suggest that job growth between 0 to 105,000 could positively impact the stock market, while stronger data might lead to declines due to rising bond yields [12]. - Defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples may attract investment as safe havens amid high stock valuations [10].

【环球网财经综合报道】据彭博社报道，华尔街策略师们正日益将目光投向人工智能领域之外，寻找推动美国股市上 涨的新动力，因为人们越来越担心市场对人工智能相关股票的热情可能正在降温。高盛最新策略观点认为，在人工智 能热潮可能放缓的背景下，美国"中产消费"有望成为推动2026年美股牛市的关键动力。 高盛策略师Ben Snider及其团队认为，随着美国经济预期增长，市场重心应转向受益于中产阶级消费扩张的企业，尤 其是销售"改善型"和"体验型"产品与服务的领域。 高盛在报告中称："与中等收入消费者支出相关的股票尤其具有吸引力。价值股在2026年初将继续跑赢大盘。中等收 入消费者的实际收入增长将加速，这应该会转化为销售增长的改善。" 该团队看好提供"想要拥有"（Want-to-Have）而非"必须拥有"（Need-to-Have）产品的公司，包括高档服饰零售商、家 居用品制造商、旅游运营商及赌场等。他们分析称，特朗普关税政策的负面影响消退、劳动力市场企稳，以及前期立 法带来的税收返还，将共同提振消费者信心与实际支出能力。 市场数据已初步印证这一趋势：标普零售精选行业指数年内上涨3.5%，自去年11月假日购物季启动以来累计涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that global copper demand is expected to increase by 50% by 2040, driven by the expansion of artificial intelligence, defense, and robotics industries, leading to a potential supply gap of over 10 million tons if recycling and mining do not keep pace [1][3]. - Copper is a critical material for construction, transportation, technology, and electronics due to its excellent conductivity, corrosion resistance, and ease of processing. The report predicts that global copper demand will reach 42 million tons by 2040, a significant increase from 28 million tons in 2025, with nearly a quarter of the demand potentially unmet without new supply [3]. - Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, states that the advancement of global electrification is a core driver, with copper being the foundational metal for electrification [4]. Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' commodity research team notes that copper prices have experienced significant volatility, rising from below $11,000 per ton at the end of November to a high of $13,387 per ton on January 6, marking a cumulative increase of 22%. They acknowledge that current prices exceed their estimated fair value of around $11,400 per ton, but believe the "overheating" is supported by substantial investor inflows and low inventory levels outside the U.S. [4]. - Goldman Sachs warns investors to be cautious of high price risks, stating that prices above $13,000 are unlikely to be sustainable. They maintain their forecast of $11,200 per ton for Q4 2026 and anticipate a potential pullback in Q2 [5]. - The current price surge is driven by three main themes: signs of tightness in the spot market, ongoing investment in AI data center construction attracting funds into the copper market, and a macro narrative of "economic overheating" that boosts expectations for U.S. economic growth and risk asset rebounds. This macro sentiment temporarily masks the underlying weak fundamentals [5].

Core Viewpoint - Global investors are preparing for a highly volatile "Super Friday," with significant events that could reshape short-term pricing logic in the bond, stock, and commodity markets [1]. Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December will be released at 21:30 Beijing time, serving as a crucial reference for assessing economic health and influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][3]. - Economists predict a job increase of 70,000 in December, with the unemployment rate expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5% [6]. Federal Reserve Policy - The non-farm payroll data is viewed as a "deciding hammer" for the Fed's policy, with a weak report potentially increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in January to 50% [6]. - Current market pricing indicates only a 10% chance of a rate cut this month, with the next expected in June [6]. Supreme Court Ruling - The market is closely watching the Supreme Court's decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, which could have a binary effect on the stock and bond markets [7]. - If tariffs are overturned, the S&P 500 could rise by 0.75%-1%, while maintaining tariffs could lead to a decline of 30-50 basis points [7][8]. Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is facing a "double storm" with the upcoming results of the "232 clause" tariff investigation and significant index rebalancing trades [2][10]. - The annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has begun, with an expected influx of approximately $7.7 billion in silver sell orders, equating to 13% of total COMEX silver open interest [12]. Market Reactions - Analysts warn that the combination of tariff rulings and commodity market adjustments could lead to extreme volatility, particularly in precious metals like palladium and silver [10][12]. - The potential for a liquidity vacuum could trigger severe repricing in the market, with differing views on whether prices will continue to rise or face significant downward risks once liquidity improves [12][13].

钛媒体App 1月9日消息，高盛研究部预测2026年全球经济预计将实现2.8%的稳健增长，高于市场普遍 预期的2.6%。美国经济表现将尤为突出，预计增长2.8%（市场预期2.0%），主要得益于关税拖累减 弱、减税政策以及更为宽松的金融环境。中国经济也将保持良好势头，预计增长4.8%（市场预期 4.5%），强劲的出口将有效抵消国内需求疲软的影响。尽管面临长期挑战，欧元区经济前景依然乐 观，预计增长1.3%（市场预期1.1%），得益于德国的财政刺激和西班牙的强劲增长。（广角观察） ...

来源：金融界AI电报 高盛研究部预测2026年全球经济预计将实现2.8%的稳健增长，高于市场普遍预期的2.6%。美国经济表 现将尤为突出，预计增长2.8%（市场预期2.0%），主要得益于关税拖累减弱、减税政策以及更为宽松 的金融环境。中国经济也将保持良好势头，预计增长4.8%（市场预期4.5%），强劲的出口将有效抵消 国内需求疲软的影响。尽管面临长期挑战，欧元区经济前景依然乐观，预计增长1.3%（市场预期 1.1%），得益于德国的财政刺激和西班牙的强劲增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index will rise by 20% and 12% respectively by 2026 [6] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 9, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 4100-point mark, marking a significant milestone not seen in ten years [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a fifteen-day consecutive rise, reaching a high of 4095.33 points, up 0.30% on January 9 [3] - The market showed strong trading activity with a half-day turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan [3] Group 2: Factors Driving Market Growth - The recent rise in A-shares is attributed to a combination of positive factors, including high liquidity, favorable policy expectations, and investor sentiment [4] - The liquidity outlook improved due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a dual easing monetary policy set by the domestic central economic work conference [4] - The central economic work conference emphasized expanding domestic demand and technological innovation as key focuses for 2026, providing structural investment opportunities [4] Group 3: Institutional Outlook - Citic Securities forecasts a continued bull market in 2026, driven by policy shifts and improved liquidity, alongside a focus on technology sector growth [5] - The investment community is optimistic about the Chinese market, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares [6] - Morgan Stanley also raised its rating on the Chinese market to "overweight," citing reasonable valuations and light positioning by international investors [6] Group 4: Earnings Growth Expectations - Goldman Sachs anticipates that corporate earnings in China will grow by 14% and 12% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, with overseas revenue growth contributing to performance [6] - UBS projects that the overall A-share earnings growth rate will increase from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, driven by GDP growth and supportive policies [7]

Group 1: Overall M&A Trends - In 2025, the total value of M&A transactions involving mainland China reached $474.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 81.1% [1] - The number of announced transactions was 5,504, which is a 9.1% increase year-on-year and a 12.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Domestic and Foreign M&A Activity - The total value of outbound M&A transactions from mainland China was $24.4 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] - The value of foreign acquisitions of mainland Chinese companies was $24 billion, which is a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year [3] - Domestic M&A transactions in mainland China reached $412.1 billion, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 82.8% [3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The financial sector dominated M&A transactions, accounting for 22.62% of the market share with a total transaction value of $107.3 billion, which surged by 121% year-on-year [5] - The raw materials sector ranked second with a market share of 16.39%, experiencing a year-on-year growth of 158.2% [5] - The high-tech sector ranked third, holding a market share of 15.26% and a transaction value of $72.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 77.3% [5] Group 4: Financial Advisors and Rankings - In 2025, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) topped the financial advisor rankings for announced M&A transactions involving mainland China, with a market share of 18.91% and a transaction value of $89.7 billion [9] - CITIC Securities ranked second with a market share of 15.12%, while Goldman Sachs ranked third with a market share of 9.69% [9] - By transaction volume, the top three financial advisors were Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), CITIC Securities, and CICC [10] Group 5: Legal Advisors and Rankings - The top three legal advisors by transaction value in 2025 were King & Wood Mallesons, AllBright Law Offices, and Zhong Lun Law Firm, with respective market shares of 16.1%, 10.9%, and 9.8% [11] - By transaction volume, the leading legal advisors were Fangda Partners, King & Wood Mallesons, and Zhong Lun Law Firm [11]