Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that global copper demand is expected to increase by 50% by 2040, driven by the expansion of artificial intelligence, defense, and robotics industries, leading to a potential supply gap of over 10 million tons if recycling and mining do not keep pace [1][3]. - Copper is a critical material for construction, transportation, technology, and electronics due to its excellent conductivity, corrosion resistance, and ease of processing. The report predicts that global copper demand will reach 42 million tons by 2040, a significant increase from 28 million tons in 2025, with nearly a quarter of the demand potentially unmet without new supply [3]. - Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, states that the advancement of global electrification is a core driver, with copper being the foundational metal for electrification [4]. Group 2 - Goldman Sachs' commodity research team notes that copper prices have experienced significant volatility, rising from below $11,000 per ton at the end of November to a high of $13,387 per ton on January 6, marking a cumulative increase of 22%. They acknowledge that current prices exceed their estimated fair value of around $11,400 per ton, but believe the "overheating" is supported by substantial investor inflows and low inventory levels outside the U.S. [4]. - Goldman Sachs warns investors to be cautious of high price risks, stating that prices above $13,000 are unlikely to be sustainable. They maintain their forecast of $11,200 per ton for Q4 2026 and anticipate a potential pullback in Q2 [5]. - The current price surge is driven by three main themes: signs of tightness in the spot market, ongoing investment in AI data center construction attracting funds into the copper market, and a macro narrative of "economic overheating" that boosts expectations for U.S. economic growth and risk asset rebounds. This macro sentiment temporarily masks the underlying weak fundamentals [5].

Core Viewpoint - Global investors are preparing for a highly volatile "Super Friday," with significant events that could reshape short-term pricing logic in the bond, stock, and commodity markets [1]. Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December will be released at 21:30 Beijing time, serving as a crucial reference for assessing economic health and influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][3]. - Economists predict a job increase of 70,000 in December, with the unemployment rate expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5% [6]. Federal Reserve Policy - The non-farm payroll data is viewed as a "deciding hammer" for the Fed's policy, with a weak report potentially increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in January to 50% [6]. - Current market pricing indicates only a 10% chance of a rate cut this month, with the next expected in June [6]. Supreme Court Ruling - The market is closely watching the Supreme Court's decision on the legality of Trump’s tariffs, which could have a binary effect on the stock and bond markets [7]. - If tariffs are overturned, the S&P 500 could rise by 0.75%-1%, while maintaining tariffs could lead to a decline of 30-50 basis points [7][8]. Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is facing a "double storm" with the upcoming results of the "232 clause" tariff investigation and significant index rebalancing trades [2][10]. - The annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has begun, with an expected influx of approximately $7.7 billion in silver sell orders, equating to 13% of total COMEX silver open interest [12]. Market Reactions - Analysts warn that the combination of tariff rulings and commodity market adjustments could lead to extreme volatility, particularly in precious metals like palladium and silver [10][12]. - The potential for a liquidity vacuum could trigger severe repricing in the market, with differing views on whether prices will continue to rise or face significant downward risks once liquidity improves [12][13].

钛媒体App 1月9日消息，高盛研究部预测2026年全球经济预计将实现2.8%的稳健增长，高于市场普遍 预期的2.6%。美国经济表现将尤为突出，预计增长2.8%（市场预期2.0%），主要得益于关税拖累减 弱、减税政策以及更为宽松的金融环境。中国经济也将保持良好势头，预计增长4.8%（市场预期 4.5%），强劲的出口将有效抵消国内需求疲软的影响。尽管面临长期挑战，欧元区经济前景依然乐 观，预计增长1.3%（市场预期1.1%），得益于德国的财政刺激和西班牙的强劲增长。（广角观察） ...

来源：金融界AI电报 高盛研究部预测2026年全球经济预计将实现2.8%的稳健增长，高于市场普遍预期的2.6%。美国经济表 现将尤为突出，预计增长2.8%（市场预期2.0%），主要得益于关税拖累减弱、减税政策以及更为宽松 的金融环境。中国经济也将保持良好势头，预计增长4.8%（市场预期4.5%），强劲的出口将有效抵消 国内需求疲软的影响。尽管面临长期挑战，欧元区经济前景依然乐观，预计增长1.3%（市场预期 1.1%），得益于德国的财政刺激和西班牙的强劲增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index will rise by 20% and 12% respectively by 2026 [6] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 9, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 4100-point mark, marking a significant milestone not seen in ten years [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a fifteen-day consecutive rise, reaching a high of 4095.33 points, up 0.30% on January 9 [3] - The market showed strong trading activity with a half-day turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan [3] Group 2: Factors Driving Market Growth - The recent rise in A-shares is attributed to a combination of positive factors, including high liquidity, favorable policy expectations, and investor sentiment [4] - The liquidity outlook improved due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a dual easing monetary policy set by the domestic central economic work conference [4] - The central economic work conference emphasized expanding domestic demand and technological innovation as key focuses for 2026, providing structural investment opportunities [4] Group 3: Institutional Outlook - Citic Securities forecasts a continued bull market in 2026, driven by policy shifts and improved liquidity, alongside a focus on technology sector growth [5] - The investment community is optimistic about the Chinese market, with Goldman Sachs maintaining an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares [6] - Morgan Stanley also raised its rating on the Chinese market to "overweight," citing reasonable valuations and light positioning by international investors [6] Group 4: Earnings Growth Expectations - Goldman Sachs anticipates that corporate earnings in China will grow by 14% and 12% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, with overseas revenue growth contributing to performance [6] - UBS projects that the overall A-share earnings growth rate will increase from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026, driven by GDP growth and supportive policies [7]

Group 1: Overall M&A Trends - In 2025, the total value of M&A transactions involving mainland China reached $474.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 81.1% [1] - The number of announced transactions was 5,504, which is a 9.1% increase year-on-year and a 12.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Domestic and Foreign M&A Activity - The total value of outbound M&A transactions from mainland China was $24.4 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] - The value of foreign acquisitions of mainland Chinese companies was $24 billion, which is a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year [3] - Domestic M&A transactions in mainland China reached $412.1 billion, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 82.8% [3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The financial sector dominated M&A transactions, accounting for 22.62% of the market share with a total transaction value of $107.3 billion, which surged by 121% year-on-year [5] - The raw materials sector ranked second with a market share of 16.39%, experiencing a year-on-year growth of 158.2% [5] - The high-tech sector ranked third, holding a market share of 15.26% and a transaction value of $72.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 77.3% [5] Group 4: Financial Advisors and Rankings - In 2025, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) topped the financial advisor rankings for announced M&A transactions involving mainland China, with a market share of 18.91% and a transaction value of $89.7 billion [9] - CITIC Securities ranked second with a market share of 15.12%, while Goldman Sachs ranked third with a market share of 9.69% [9] - By transaction volume, the top three financial advisors were Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), CITIC Securities, and CICC [10] Group 5: Legal Advisors and Rankings - The top three legal advisors by transaction value in 2025 were King & Wood Mallesons, AllBright Law Offices, and Zhong Lun Law Firm, with respective market shares of 16.1%, 10.9%, and 9.8% [11] - By transaction volume, the leading legal advisors were Fangda Partners, King & Wood Mallesons, and Zhong Lun Law Firm [11]

智通财经1月9日讯（编辑 潇湘）2026年全球市场开局强劲。但投资者可能会在本周五面临今年第一个 真正的考验——美国劳工部将于北京时间今晚21点半公布12月就业数据。而在同一天，美国最高法院还 将就美国总统特朗普大部分关税的合法性做出最终裁决。 期权市场的交易员们目前正严阵以待，准备迎接可能是今年迄今为止波动性最大的一个交易日——标普 500指数预计将出现大幅波动。根据盈透证券首席市场策略师Steve Sosnick的说法，以周五到期的平值 合约的定价估算，标普500指数周五预计将出现上下至少0.9%的波动。 Sosnick还质疑投资者是否已足够谨慎。他在一则评论中表示，"相对平静的市场意味着仍有一些意外发 生的可能性。" 非农前瞻：两个多月来最"靠谱"的美国就业数据要来了？ 今晚这份非农报告之所以备受瞩目，在一定程度上或许是因为在不少业内人士看来，这或许是美国政府 去年10月经历史上最长停摆以来所出炉的"第一份相对靠谱的就业数据"。这也令这份报告的重要性不言 而喻——今晚数据要么会巩固市场对美联储本月维持利率不变的预期，要么会增强市场对美联储可能连 续第四次降息的看法…… Natixis北美美国利率策略主管 ...

格隆汇1月9日｜高盛认为，鉴于通胀关切将是中期选举前的关键问题，特朗普政府将铜进口关税的决定 推迟到明年的风险加大。该行的基准预期仍是2026年年中宣布15%的关税，并于2027年落实，但对这一 预期的信心水平降低。高盛将第一季度LME铜价平均价格预期从每吨11550美元上调至13000美元；但 预计到年底价格仍将回落至每吨11000美元。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

来源：金十数据 从市场角度看，高盛将非农就业数据落在7万至10万区间描述为对股市最有利的结果，这与经济持续扩 张、既不会重新引发通胀担忧、也不会威胁降息周期的情形相符。这样的结果将支持美国经济正在逐步 放缓而非突然停滞的观点。 相比之下，非农就业数据若低于5万人，则将被解读为低于经济维持稳定的就业增长估计水平，可能因 引发对增长急剧放缓的担忧而令投资者不安。 高盛表示，周五晚间即将发布的美国2025年12月份的非农就业报告不太可能实质性改变市场对美联储政 策的预期，除非数据出现重大意外，因为当前的市场定价已稳固锚定在年中开启宽松政策的路径上。 在致客户的研究报告中，高盛预计这份非农的就业人数增长量约为7万人，与普遍预期基本一致。尽管 非正式的市场"私下预测"暗示存在小幅上行风险，但该行认为，一份接近预期的结果将强化而非打乱现 有的宏观经济叙事。 市场目前定价美联储今年将进行两次25个基点的降息，首次25个基点的降息预计在4月下旬左右。 高盛表示，需要劳动力数据出现"相当戏剧性"的上行或下行意外，才能显著地将这一时点提前或推后。 另一个极端是，高盛表示，若数据高于12.5万人，则可能促使市场重新评估美联储首次降 ...

Investment Rating - The report projects a real GDP growth of 4.8% for 2026, which is above the consensus expectation of 4.5% [7]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing competitiveness and rare earth controls are expected to drive export volumes growth of 5-6% annually [7]. - The current account surplus is projected to be 4.2% of GDP, significantly higher than the consensus of 2.5% [7]. - Although the property market has not yet bottomed, its negative impact on GDP growth is expected to lessen [7]. - Government consumption growth is anticipated to increase, compensating for weak household consumption in 2026 [7]. - Investment is expected to rebound from 2025 to 2026 [7]. Economic Growth - The report anticipates a gradual reflation process in China, with PPI inflation expected to rise from -2.6% in 2025 to -0.7% in 2026 and headline CPI inflation increasing from 0% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026 [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.2 percentage points of GDP, reaching 12.2% in 2026 [33]. Policy Outlook - The report expects a 20 basis points cut in policy rates and a year-end USDCNY exchange rate of 6.85 [7]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan continues to prioritize manufacturing, technology, and security [7]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is expected to rebound in 2026 due to policy support and a low base effect [42]. - The report highlights that the high-tech sector is projected to contribute an average of 1 percentage point to real GDP growth over the next five years [59].