Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius warned that U.S. GDP estimates showing 3.8% growth in Q2 and 3.3% in Q3 may be overstated, owing to missing data from the government shutdown and weakening labor trends. He pointed to falling employment indicators and survey data signaling stagnation, arguing job market weakness offers a more accurate gauge of current growth. Hatzius also cited temporary boosts from tariff-driven stockpiling earlier this year and warned that younger workers face growing hiring challenges, particu ...

The NYSE Asset classes are moving unusually relative to one another, puzzling even the most seasoned equity market traders. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. macro trader Bobby Molavi points to equities that are climbing every wall of worry, with indexes, single-stocks and other assets like gold scaling record highs. At the same time, volatility remains subdued regardless of the news flow, retail buying is unstoppable and artificial intelligence spending keeps booming. Most Read from Bloomberg “Everything is we ...

Core Insights - The US stock market is experiencing a recovery from recent selloffs, primarily driven by short-sellers covering their positions, indicating a potential market squeeze [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Goldman Sachs' basket of the most-shorted stocks has increased by 16% this month, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which only advanced by 0.7% [2]. - The S&P 500 has shown remarkable resilience, achieving one of its best performance streaks since the 1950s, despite ongoing uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing trend of investors covering their short positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for October 29, which may create a misleading sense of confidence in the market [3]. - Risk aversion is rising as traders are now selling upside calls to fund downside protection, reflecting a shift in sentiment as the market rallies [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - There is a prevailing belief that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon, but some analysts caution that the actual impact of such reductions may be overestimated [6]. - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen below the key level of 20, indicating reduced market volatility after a brief spike, suggesting a stabilization in investor sentiment [7].

Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs is expanding its wealth-management division in Saudi Arabia [1] - Competition is intensifying among Wall Street giants to tap into Saudi Arabia, the Middle East's largest economy [1]

Core Insights - The global oil market is beginning to show signs of a long-anticipated supply surplus, as indicated by high-frequency satellite data and official inventory data from the International Energy Agency and the United States [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - OECD inventories have increased, with visible commercial stocks rising by 340,000 barrels per day year-to-date, accounting for one-quarter of total inventories [1] - This proportion of visible commercial stocks is expected to rise to one-third by the end of 2025 [1]

智通财经APP获悉，据知情人士透露，包括摩根大通、美国银行和高盛集团在内的一批美国银行，在缺 乏担保或抵押品的情况下，对向阿根廷提供200亿美元贷款持犹豫态度。 摩根大通、美国银行、高盛和花旗集团未立即回应置评请求。 阿根廷央行周一表示，它已与美国财政部签署了一项200亿美元的汇率稳定协议，这使得美国对这个拉 美第三大经济体的支持总额达到400亿美元。财政部还在公开市场上购买了阿根廷比索。 知情人士指出，美国的这些融资机制也增加了国际货币基金组织与美国财政部之间发生冲突的可能性， 基金组织的官员担心特朗普政府可能向阿根廷施压，要求其将美国债务置于IMF巨额贷款之前。 知情人士透露，银行家们正在等待财政部的指引，明确阿根廷能够提供何种抵押品，或者华盛顿是否计 划自行支持这一融资机制。 知情人士称，该融资机制尚未最终确定，如果银行的抵押品问题得不到解决，可能无法成型。 美国财政部一位发言人表示："关于该机制的讨论仍在进行中，我们期待在谈判完成后提供更多细节。" 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特上周表示，该部正与银行和投资基金合作，创建一个200亿美元的融资机 制，用于投资这个南美国家的主权债务。 ...

Group 1 - A coalition of U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs, is reluctant to extend a $20 billion loan to Argentina without guarantees or collateral [1]

Group 1: Energy Sector Developments - The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) is implementing new exemption orders effective December 1, aimed at simplifying the approval process for "negligible-risk" oil and gas projects, which are defined as projects with existing authorization that do not cover certain additions like storage facilities [3][7] - BHP Group reported a 4% increase in first-quarter copper production, primarily due to an accelerated ramp-up at its Escondida project in Chile, while maintaining steady iron ore output and unchanged full-year guidance [6][7] Group 2: Market Movements and Economic Policies - Japanese equities have reached record highs, with the Nikkei 225 surging 2.9% to 48,970.40, driven by expectations of fiscal expansion under the anticipated premiership of Sanae Takaichi [4][7] - Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs, are facing challenges in structuring a $20 billion loan for Argentina, highlighting concerns about the country's economic stability [8][7] Group 3: U.S. Housing Finance and Regulatory Changes - The Trump administration is evaluating a public offering for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, potentially by the end of 2025, with the aim of ending their government conservatorship established after the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis [5][7] - In the United Kingdom, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to announce regulatory cuts to boost economic growth, which could save businesses billions by streamlining processes [9] Group 4: International Trade and Investment Initiatives - The U.S. is considering new tariffs or restrictions on Nicaragua's benefits under the CAFTA-DR free trade pact due to concerns over human rights abuses, with proposed tariffs potentially reaching up to 100% on imports [10] - The European Investment Bank is seeking critical minerals investments in Australia to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on single-country suppliers, particularly China [11]

Core Insights - Billionaire investors are significantly increasing their Bitcoin holdings, indicating a strong belief in its long-term price potential and diversification benefits [7][9][11] Group 1: Institutional Investment in Bitcoin - Goldman Sachs holds $1.57 billion worth of Bitcoin, while Morgan Stanley has $489 million [2] - Alan Howard's Brevan Howard Capital Management owns $2.3 billion in Bitcoin, representing 25% of his fund's total portfolio [5] - Izzy Englander of Millennium Management has a position of $1.31 billion in Bitcoin, making it his second-largest position [4] Group 2: Investment Vehicles - Many billionaires are investing in Bitcoin through the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, which provides direct exposure to Bitcoin's price [6][8] - Millennium Capital Management also holds $660 million in the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, showcasing a diversified approach to Bitcoin exposure [3] Group 3: Price Predictions and Market Sentiment - Wall Street experts predict Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years, representing an 825% increase from its current price of $108,000 [7][9] - The growing consensus among investors is that Bitcoin is becoming a modern store of value, akin to gold, and is seen as a hedge against inflation [11][12] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's historical lack of correlation with major asset classes has made it attractive for institutional investors seeking diversification [13] - The current trend of moving investments from fiat currencies to Bitcoin and precious metals is driving both Bitcoin and gold prices to all-time highs [12]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs, founded in 1869, is the world's second-largest investment bank by revenue [1] - The company is ranked 55th on the Fortune 500 list of the largest United States corporations by total revenue [1] Company Overview - Goldman Sachs has a long history, being established in 1869 [1] - It holds a significant position in the investment banking industry, recognized for its substantial revenue generation [1]