Group 1: Overall M&A Trends - In 2025, the total value of M&A transactions involving mainland China reached $474.3 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 81.1% [1] - The number of announced transactions was 5,504, which is a 9.1% increase year-on-year and a 12.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Domestic and Foreign M&A Activity - The total value of outbound M&A transactions from mainland China was $24.4 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] - The value of foreign acquisitions of mainland Chinese companies was $24 billion, which is a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year [3] - Domestic M&A transactions in mainland China reached $412.1 billion, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 82.8% [3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The financial sector dominated M&A transactions, accounting for 22.62% of the market share with a total transaction value of $107.3 billion, which surged by 121% year-on-year [5] - The raw materials sector ranked second with a market share of 16.39%, experiencing a year-on-year growth of 158.2% [5] - The high-tech sector ranked third, holding a market share of 15.26% and a transaction value of $72.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 77.3% [5] Group 4: Financial Advisors and Rankings - In 2025, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) topped the financial advisor rankings for announced M&A transactions involving mainland China, with a market share of 18.91% and a transaction value of $89.7 billion [9] - CITIC Securities ranked second with a market share of 15.12%, while Goldman Sachs ranked third with a market share of 9.69% [9] - By transaction volume, the top three financial advisors were Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), CITIC Securities, and CICC [10] Group 5: Legal Advisors and Rankings - The top three legal advisors by transaction value in 2025 were King & Wood Mallesons, AllBright Law Offices, and Zhong Lun Law Firm, with respective market shares of 16.1%, 10.9%, and 9.8% [11] - By transaction volume, the leading legal advisors were Fangda Partners, King & Wood Mallesons, and Zhong Lun Law Firm [11]

智通财经1月9日讯（编辑 潇湘）2026年全球市场开局强劲。但投资者可能会在本周五面临今年第一个 真正的考验——美国劳工部将于北京时间今晚21点半公布12月就业数据。而在同一天，美国最高法院还 将就美国总统特朗普大部分关税的合法性做出最终裁决。 期权市场的交易员们目前正严阵以待，准备迎接可能是今年迄今为止波动性最大的一个交易日——标普 500指数预计将出现大幅波动。根据盈透证券首席市场策略师Steve Sosnick的说法，以周五到期的平值 合约的定价估算，标普500指数周五预计将出现上下至少0.9%的波动。 Sosnick还质疑投资者是否已足够谨慎。他在一则评论中表示，"相对平静的市场意味着仍有一些意外发 生的可能性。" 非农前瞻：两个多月来最"靠谱"的美国就业数据要来了？ 今晚这份非农报告之所以备受瞩目，在一定程度上或许是因为在不少业内人士看来，这或许是美国政府 去年10月经历史上最长停摆以来所出炉的"第一份相对靠谱的就业数据"。这也令这份报告的重要性不言 而喻——今晚数据要么会巩固市场对美联储本月维持利率不变的预期，要么会增强市场对美联储可能连 续第四次降息的看法…… Natixis北美美国利率策略主管 ...

格隆汇1月9日｜高盛认为，鉴于通胀关切将是中期选举前的关键问题，特朗普政府将铜进口关税的决定 推迟到明年的风险加大。该行的基准预期仍是2026年年中宣布15%的关税，并于2027年落实，但对这一 预期的信心水平降低。高盛将第一季度LME铜价平均价格预期从每吨11550美元上调至13000美元；但 预计到年底价格仍将回落至每吨11000美元。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

来源：金十数据 从市场角度看，高盛将非农就业数据落在7万至10万区间描述为对股市最有利的结果，这与经济持续扩 张、既不会重新引发通胀担忧、也不会威胁降息周期的情形相符。这样的结果将支持美国经济正在逐步 放缓而非突然停滞的观点。 相比之下，非农就业数据若低于5万人，则将被解读为低于经济维持稳定的就业增长估计水平，可能因 引发对增长急剧放缓的担忧而令投资者不安。 高盛表示，周五晚间即将发布的美国2025年12月份的非农就业报告不太可能实质性改变市场对美联储政 策的预期，除非数据出现重大意外，因为当前的市场定价已稳固锚定在年中开启宽松政策的路径上。 在致客户的研究报告中，高盛预计这份非农的就业人数增长量约为7万人，与普遍预期基本一致。尽管 非正式的市场"私下预测"暗示存在小幅上行风险，但该行认为，一份接近预期的结果将强化而非打乱现 有的宏观经济叙事。 市场目前定价美联储今年将进行两次25个基点的降息，首次25个基点的降息预计在4月下旬左右。 高盛表示，需要劳动力数据出现"相当戏剧性"的上行或下行意外，才能显著地将这一时点提前或推后。 另一个极端是，高盛表示，若数据高于12.5万人，则可能促使市场重新评估美联储首次降 ...

Investment Rating - The report projects a real GDP growth of 4.8% for 2026, which is above the consensus expectation of 4.5% [7]. Core Insights - China's manufacturing competitiveness and rare earth controls are expected to drive export volumes growth of 5-6% annually [7]. - The current account surplus is projected to be 4.2% of GDP, significantly higher than the consensus of 2.5% [7]. - Although the property market has not yet bottomed, its negative impact on GDP growth is expected to lessen [7]. - Government consumption growth is anticipated to increase, compensating for weak household consumption in 2026 [7]. - Investment is expected to rebound from 2025 to 2026 [7]. Economic Growth - The report anticipates a gradual reflation process in China, with PPI inflation expected to rise from -2.6% in 2025 to -0.7% in 2026 and headline CPI inflation increasing from 0% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026 [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.2 percentage points of GDP, reaching 12.2% in 2026 [33]. Policy Outlook - The report expects a 20 basis points cut in policy rates and a year-end USDCNY exchange rate of 6.85 [7]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan continues to prioritize manufacturing, technology, and security [7]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is expected to rebound in 2026 due to policy support and a low base effect [42]. - The report highlights that the high-tech sector is projected to contribute an average of 1 percentage point to real GDP growth over the next five years [59].

Group 1: Market Sentiment - A Goldman Sachs survey indicates that geopolitical factors are driving institutional investors' bearish sentiment on crude oil to near a decade-high level, with over 59% of respondents holding a bearish or slightly bearish view [1] - This sentiment level is close to historical lows recorded in January 2016, with only a slightly higher pessimism noted in April of the previous year when trade tensions escalated [1] - The proportion of institutional investors considering crude oil as their most preferred short position has reached an all-time high, further intensifying overall bearish sentiment [1] Group 2: Oil Price Forecast - Due to increased supply from OPEC+ and competitors, alongside slowing global demand growth, oil prices are projected to decline nearly 20% cumulatively by 2025, marking the largest annual drop since 2020 [3] - The average forecast from major banks suggests that Brent crude oil prices, currently around $61 per barrel, may further decrease to approximately $59 per barrel by 2026 [3] Group 3: Venezuela's Oil Market Impact - Venezuela, holding the world's largest proven oil reserves at 303 billion barrels, could negatively impact future oil markets if U.S. energy companies invest billions to revive its oil production [4] - If a pro-U.S. regime is established in Venezuela, U.S. oil companies may return to the market, potentially increasing the country's oil exports by 3 million barrels per day, which could suppress long-term oil price increases [4] - Experts suggest that the future of Venezuela's oil production is likely to exert a bearish influence on the market, as any increase in output would add to the already ample global supply [6] Group 4: U.S. Government's Role - The Trump administration is considering a significant plan to dominate Venezuela's oil industry, which may include exerting control over the state oil company PDVSA and selling a substantial portion of its oil production [6] - U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the U.S. aims to stabilize and grow Venezuelan oil production while facilitating the entry of major U.S. oil companies into the market [6] - However, the potential for increased production in Venezuela hinges on substantial investments and a stable political environment, which remains uncertain [7] Group 5: Investment Considerations - U.S. oil companies may weigh the necessity of investing billions in Venezuela against the backdrop of already ample global oil supply [7] - The stability of the Venezuelan government and the legal and financial frameworks are critical factors for U.S. energy giants, as energy investments typically span 30 years [7] - The possibility of a return to a regime similar to Maduro's, which previously nationalized oil assets, poses a significant risk for U.S. oil companies [7]

Group 1 - Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison has selected Goldman Sachs and UBS Group AG to assist with the planned initial public offering (IPO) of its subsidiary A.S. Watson Group [1] - The IPO is part of CK Hutchison's strategy to enhance its capital structure and unlock value from its investments [1] - A.S. Watson Group is a leading health and beauty retailer, which could attract significant investor interest due to its market position [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has revised its short-term copper price forecast due to a significant price surge, but maintains that once U.S. tariffs are implemented, supply and demand fundamentals will regain influence [1][6]. Group 1: Price Movements and Predictions - Copper prices have experienced extreme volatility, rising from under $11,000 per ton at the end of November to a peak of $13,387 per ton on January 6, marking a 22% increase [1]. - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 2026 mid-year LME copper price forecast from $11,525 per ton to $12,750 per ton [1]. - Despite the current price surge, Goldman Sachs does not expect prices above $13,000 to be sustainable and maintains a forecast of $11,200 per ton for Q4 2026 [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increase - Three main themes are driving the current copper price increase: 1. Tight signals in the spot market, evidenced by a surge in metal withdrawal requests from LME warehouses in early December, indicating supply tightness outside the U.S. [4]. 2. The AI and data center boom continues to attract significant investment into the copper market, despite some fluctuations in mid-December [4]. 3. The macro narrative of "running the economy hot" is fueling expectations of accelerated U.S. economic growth and a rebound in cyclical demand, positively impacting copper and broader risk assets [5]. Group 3: Tariff Implications - The anticipated U.S. tariff decision on refined copper is expected to be a turning point, potentially ending the current stockpiling behavior in the U.S. [6]. - The U.S. Commerce Department has suggested delaying the imposition of tariffs on refined copper, increasing the likelihood that these tariffs may not be implemented [6]. - If tariffs are postponed, it could negatively impact LME copper prices as the market would refocus on global supply abundance [7]. Group 4: Market Fundamentals and Risks - Despite the current price boom, the global copper market fundamentals appear weak, with a projected surplus of 600,000 tons in 2025, the largest since 2009 [8]. - The surplus expectation for 2026 has been revised from 160,000 tons to 300,000 tons, and U.S. stockpiling expectations have been reduced from 7.5 million tons to 6 million tons [8]. - Speculative positions in the market have reached historical highs, indicating a potential late-stage market phase, although prices may still find support until key economic pillars collapse [9].

Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 270.03 points, or 0.55%, closing at 49,266.11 points. In contrast, the Nasdaq fell by 104.25 points, or 0.44%, ending at 23,480.02 points, while the S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.53 points, or 0.01%, to close at 6,921.46 points [4][5]. Economic Outlook - Fitch Ratings has raised its GDP growth forecast for the US for 2025 and 2026, adjusting estimates due to delayed economic data from the government shutdown at the end of last year. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the federal funds rate to 3.25% in the first half of 2026 [6]. - US Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that most models suggest the Fed's interest rate range may fall between 2.5% and 3.25%, emphasizing that rates remain significantly above neutral levels [7]. Inflation and Employment - A monthly survey from the New York Federal Reserve revealed an increase in US inflation expectations for December, while consumer confidence in the job market has dropped to its lowest level in over 12.5 years [8]. Energy Sector - Oil prices increased, with WTI crude for February rising by 3.2% to settle at $57.76 per barrel, and Brent crude for March up by 3.4% to $61.99 per barrel. Energy stocks saw a broad increase, with ExxonMobil rising over 3%, Chevron up more than 2%, and ConocoPhillips increasing by over 5% [10][11]. Mining Industry - Glencore and Rio Tinto have resumed negotiations to potentially create the world's largest mining company, with a combined market value exceeding $260 billion. This merger is taking place against a backdrop of increasing competition for copper resources [14]. Technology Sector - The performance of major tech stocks was mixed, with the US Tech Giants Index declining by 0.27%. Notable movements included Amazon rising nearly 2% and Google increasing over 1%, while Apple fell by 0.5%, marking its seventh consecutive day of decline due to high interest rate expectations impacting growth stock valuations [16][18].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs is recognized as one of the 12 Best DOW Stocks to Buy in 2026 [1] - Barclays has raised its price target for Goldman Sachs to $1,048 from $850, maintaining an Overweight rating, anticipating continued earnings growth into 2026 [2] - Goldman Sachs topped global dealmaking league tables in 2025, driven by significant political events and an increase in larger transactions [3] Financial Performance - The year 2025 saw 68 transactions exceeding $10 billion, totaling $1.5 trillion, more than double the previous year, with Goldman advising on 38 of these deals, amounting to $1.48 trillion in advised volume [4] - Goldman Sachs collected $4.6 billion in M&A fees, ranking No. 1 in both M&A fee revenue and total deal value, leading in deal volume ahead of JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley [6] - In the EMEA region, Goldman achieved a market share of 44.7% in 2025, a level not seen since 1999 [6] Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs' Global Co-Head of M&A described 2025 as an "exceptional M&A year," attributing the strong market to a "ubiquity of capital" [5] - Barclays expects the factors that contributed to double-digit earnings growth and bank stock outperformance in 2025 to persist into 2026 [2]