Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is currently facing pressure on sales and performance, particularly with the L series needing revitalization. The anticipated product upgrades in 2026 are seen as crucial for overcoming current challenges [4][7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 27.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.2% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 6.2 billion yuan [4]. - The company delivered 93,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, down 39.0% year-on-year and 16.1% quarter-on-quarter. The automotive sales revenue was 25.9 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 37.4% year-on-year and 10.4% quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The gross margin for automotive business in Q3 was 15.5%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year and 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. Excluding the impact of the MEGA recall, the gross margin would have been 19.8% [7]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 9 billion, 36 billion, and 60 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant downward revision from previous estimates [8]. - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, with October's deliveries at 32,000 units [7]. Product Strategy - The L series product upgrades are deemed essential for the company to navigate its current difficulties, with expectations for enhancements in features such as high-level autonomous driving capabilities and battery technology [7][8]. - The report highlights that the L9 model, which has been on the market for over three years, requires significant upgrades to improve its competitiveness [7]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 154.2, indicating a high valuation relative to earnings, while the P/B ratio is projected to be 2.0 [6][12].

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto announced the launch of its AI glasses, Livis, which will be unveiled on December 3, showcasing seamless integration with vehicle systems [2] Group 1: Product Features - Livis AI glasses feature multiple color options, dual cameras for object recognition and video recording, and a microphone for music recognition [2] - The glasses can project real-time vehicle data such as battery level, range, and navigation information onto the lenses, and allow remote control of vehicle functions like opening electric sliding doors and pre-conditioning the cabin [2] Group 2: Market Context - Li Auto's entry into the AI glasses market follows Xiaomi's launch of its own AI glasses on June 26, which were positioned as a next-generation personal smart device [2] - Xiaomi's AI glasses sold 31,000 units in the first week, capturing 12% of the overall AI/AR market share, indicating strong demand and market potential for such products [2] - The collaboration between AI glasses and automotive ecosystems is highlighted, suggesting potential synergies for companies with established automotive operations [2]

完成双线布局后，理想重回"创业模式" 从理想ONE到理想L系列，增程路线为理想汽车打开了家庭用车市场的大门；而随着理想MEGA与理想i 系列构建起完整的纯电矩阵，并且MEGA在高端市场取得突破，理想i8和i6累计订单也突破10万辆，理 想汽车终于实现了"两条腿走路"。当增程和纯电双能源形式的产品布局正式成型，理想汽车的"上一个 十年"完美收官，是时候全身心投入下一个战场了。 于是，理想汽车做出了企业愿景的升级——要成为"全球领先的具身智能企业"。企业愿景的转变意味着 产品定位的根本性变革，从此汽车不再是单纯的交通工具，也不是简单的智能终端，而是物理世界中的 具身智能机器人。李想对此有着深刻的思考："电动车的选择不是不好，而是不够；智能终端的选择也 不是不好，而是不够；只有选择具身智能这个最难的题，我们才可以真正改变用户的生活。" 愿景升级，必然倒逼组织进化。从2025年第四季度起，理想果断回归"创始人模式"：李想亲自掌管产 品、公司战略、人才管理，将决策链条大幅缩短。过去三年，理想曾努力向职业经理人模式靠拢，但实 践证明，"我们变成了越来越差的自己"李想说。在AI技术高速迭代、行业格局未定的当下，这种强调流 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in vehicle deliveries and financial performance [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 27.4 billion RMB, a decrease of 36.2% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - Net loss reached 624 million RMB, a stark contrast to a net profit of 2.8 billion RMB in the same period last year [2][3]. - Vehicle sales revenue fell by 37.4% to 25.9 billion RMB, with a vehicle gross margin dropping from 20.9% to 15.5% [3][4]. Delivery and Production - Total vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025 were 93,211 units, down 39.0% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive quarter below 100,000 units [2][4]. - The company anticipates Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.7% to 37.0% [5]. Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was -7.4 billion RMB, compared to 11 billion RMB in the same period last year [4]. - Free cash flow also deteriorated to -8.9 billion RMB from a positive 9.1 billion RMB year-on-year, attributed to reduced cash receipts from customers and increased inventory payments [4]. Product and Market Position - Despite challenges, the company reported over 100,000 orders for the Li i8 and i6 models, with the i6 positioned competitively in the market [4]. - The Li i6, launched in September, features a starting price of 249,800 RMB and offers competitive specifications, including a 720 km range [4]. Future Outlook - For the full year 2025, the expected total vehicle deliveries are projected to be between 397,000 and 407,000 units, a decline of approximately 20% from 2024 [5].

◆国内新闻 国家统计局：11月份制造业PMI为49.2% ◆国际新闻 大众汽车集团任命Ludwig Fazel担任集团战略新负责人 大众汽车集团当地时间11月28日发表声明称，Ludwig Fazel将于2025年12月1日起正式出任集团战略、集团产品战略及总秘 书处负责人。此前他同时担任大众集团零部件公司首席运营官，并兼任集团技术部门战略与平台业务负责人。在新职位上， Ludwig Fazel将直接向大众集团首席执行官奥博穆汇报。 11月30日，国家统计局发布数据显示，11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平 有所改善。从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为49.3%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，低于临界点；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.9%和 49.1%，比上月上升0.2个和2.0个百分点，均低于临界点。 动力电池回收标准稳链经验交流座谈会在福建宁德召开 据国家市场监督管理总局官网消息，动力电池回收标准稳链经验交流座谈会11月27日在福建宁德召开。会议强调，要加强 动力电池回收利用标准化技术组织建设，加快有关标准研制，不断优化和完善我国动力电池回收利用标准体系。要充分认 ...

New Car Launches - Leap Motor Lafa5 launched with a limited-time price of 92,800-116,800 yuan, featuring a compact design and advanced technology including a 600km range and laser radar assistance [2][12] - Xpeng ET5 launched with a limited-time replacement price of 134,900-149,900 yuan, emphasizing configuration and cost-effectiveness, with a 210km electric range [12][21] - New Mercedes EQE launched with prices ranging from 478,000 to 627,000 yuan, maintaining a luxurious design and advanced features [22][30] Company Dynamics - NIO reported Q3 revenue of 21.79 billion yuan, a 16.7% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 13.9%, the highest in three years [31][34] - Hesai Technology launched a high-performance intelligent control chip for laser radar, achieving full self-research capabilities across key components [35][39] - Li Auto reported Q3 revenue of 27.4 billion yuan, with a delivery guidance of 100,000 to 110,000 vehicles for Q4, while facing increased competition in the extended-range vehicle segment [40][46] - Pony.ai achieved single-vehicle profitability in its Robotaxi business, with a revenue increase of 72% year-on-year [47][52] - Avita submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to accelerate its growth in the smart vehicle market [53][60] - XPeng's flying car project has successfully produced its first land carrier vehicle, indicating a significant step towards mass production [61][66] - Tesla has deployed millions of self-developed AI chips, planning to release a new chip annually, enhancing its technological leadership [68][74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the coming quarters [5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to stabilize in Q4 2025, with potential upward movement in Q1 2026, driven by policy direction, profit expectations, and valuation adjustments [1]. - Recent retail performance has been subdued due to the impact of trade-in incentives, and the Guangzhou Auto Show has had limited effect on new car sales [1]. - The report highlights the rebound of state-owned enterprises in vehicle manufacturing, influenced by catalyst factors [1]. Data Tracking - In late November, the discount rate for vehicles increased slightly to 10.1%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points [3]. - October wholesale vehicle sales reached 2.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6% [3]. - Retail sales in October were 2.09 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.2% and a month-on-month decline of 6.4% [3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 3.33%, ranking 11th among sectors [9]. - The overall market indices also showed positive movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 4.54% [9]. Industry News - As of October 2025, the automotive industry reported a profit of 389.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with total revenue reaching 8,877.8 billion yuan [29]. - The inventory level for passenger vehicles at the end of October was 3.41 million units, indicating a seasonal increase in stock [29]. - New energy vehicle company Li Auto announced plans to release AI-powered accessories, indicating a trend towards integrating advanced technology in vehicles [29].

本文仅侧重李想对投资人措辞方式的变化，明天分析李想在25Q3上画的饼。 2024年4月18日李想在L6发布会上开头说："增程式电动车的这个决定在很长一段时间让我成为了笑 柄，专家普遍不认同，行业和媒体也不理解，消费者也不明白。我们也成为了融资最难的造车新势力 企业，大多投资人说我看好李想你这个人，只要你做纯电放弃增程，我就会立刻投资你，但是我就是 想造这样一款车，我要为自己和用户造车，而不是为资本市场造车。 " 即话语层面侧重其他人如何不理解自己的远见，自己是给用户造车，不给资本市场造车。 2024年7月1日发布的理想九周年长文里，TOP2指出李想表示要对这个世界进行很好的沟通，升维自 己的沟通方式是这篇长文里最值得留意的1个地方。详见《 理想九周年长文里最值得留意的1个地方 》 加微信，进群深度交流理想实际经营情况与长期基本面。不是车友群。 2024年4月8日TOP2指出 李想需要做的是，保留自己本质的前提下，与这个世界共赢相处。而不是 改变自己的本质，被世界驯化。 2025年8月19日播出的罗永浩与李想的长对话里，李想说"我每个时间都会反思一下，也会跟团 队讨论一下，就是把我的很多棱角打磨掉，到底是个好事 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 | 乘用车 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券分析师 i6 及 L 系列改款有望助力 2026 年公司国内销量增长，公司亦加快出口布局。1、国 内：1）截至 11 月 1 日，i6 订单已超过 7 万辆，截至 10 月累计交付约 6 千辆，从 11 月起，为解决产能爬坡问题，i6 电池将启用双供应商模式，预计明年年初 i6 月产 能将稳步提升到 2 万辆。2）此外，公司预计明年还将推出增程 L 系列大改款，①会 回归精简的 SKU 模式，兼顾市场的覆盖和供应的效率。希望实现核心体验全系拉满， 彻底消除入门版体验打折的痛点；②设计方面，会延续家族的经典设计基因，同时 强化豪华质感的升级，平衡品牌的高辨识度以及用户体验的新鲜感，打造更加贴合 家庭需求的产品形态；③技术方面，全系会标配 5C 超充技术，能和现在的纯电超充 网络更好协同，更好地解决补能的焦虑。2、出口：理想增程系列车型亦正加快出海， 10 月公司在乌兹别克斯坦开设了海外首家授权零售中心，面向当地市场销售理想 L9、L7 和 L6，11 月哈萨克斯坦的两家零售中心也将陆续开业。公司会 ...

以下文章来源于陈果George ，作者GEORGE陈果 陈果George . 企业知识开源计划首席布道师。二十六年顶级管理咨询公司经验，前波士顿咨询、IBM咨询、怡安翰威 特等咨询大厂董事总经理/全球合伙人；创业过内资咨询公司、在国企工作过八年、担任过主板上市公 司总裁。评论区全开放自由评论，注意评论礼貌，受斥不雅。 本文来自微信公众号： 陈果George ，作者：GEORGE陈果，题图来自：视觉中国 理想汽车作为中国新兴企业的代表，其企业管理思想发展动向受到社会的关注。最近媒体披露了创始 人李想近期一段时间就其管理思路变化的评论： 李想提到的"创始公司管理方式"正是保罗・格雷厄姆所定义的"创始人模式"，二者的核心逻辑高度契 合。 保罗·格雷厄姆 （Paul Graham，Y Combinator 创始人，常被称为"硅谷教父"） 于2024 年9 月在他 90年代网页风格的个人网站上，发表了一篇名为《创始人模式 》（Founder Mode） 的博客文章 （https://paulgraham.com/foundermode.html） ，这在科技界和管理界引起了巨大的反响。 保罗・格雷厄姆提出的"创始人模式 ...