④ 【金价突破3790美元续创新高】9月23日，现货黄金上涨超1%，触及3790美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录 高位。消息面上，投资者对于美联储将继续降息的乐观预期继续推动金价上涨。 ⑤ 【花旗：预计台积电仍将是英伟达和英特尔的主要代工方】台积电盘前涨超3%。花旗分析师报告表 示，在英伟达和英特尔合作后，台积电可能仍将是这两家公司的主要代工方。英伟达8月份证实，台积 电正为其下一代Rubin架构生产六款新芯片。花旗分析师预测，到2026年，台积电来自英伟达的收入将 增长50%，来自英特尔的收入将增长20%。 ⑥ 【英伟达：投资OpenAI不会影响公司对其他客户的供应】英伟达与OpenAI在本周一宣布达成合作， 将一起建设大型数据中心，英伟达还将对OpenAI最高投资1000亿美元，这引发市场对英伟达公司未来 方向的担忧，对此，英伟达在周一晚些时候的声明中强调，对OpenAI投资不会改变公司重点，也不会 影响对其他客户的供应。 每经编辑：郑雨航 ① 【三大期指涨跌互现】道指期货涨0.10%、标普500指数期货跌0.02%、纳指期货涨0.01%。 ② 【科技股"七姐妹"盘前多数上涨】科技股"七姐妹"盘前多数上涨，特斯拉 ...

摩根大通维持台积电"增持"评级，目标价设为1275元新台币。小摩指出，台积电CoWoS产能预计将在 2026年底达到9.5万片/月，2027年底进一步攀升至11.2万片/月，较此前预期显著提升。小摩指出，这一 扩张主要得益于AP8工厂按计划推进的产能建设，以及英伟达、博通和AMD等关键客户需求的持续增 长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on TSMC (TSM.US) with a target price of NT$1,275, citing significant increases in CoWoS capacity projections for 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: TSMC Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 95,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 and further increase to 112,000 wafers per month by the end of 2027, which is a notable upgrade from previous forecasts [1] - The expansion is primarily driven by the planned capacity construction of the AP8 factory, expected to commence production in mid-2026, alongside sustained demand from key clients such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD [1] - From the second half of 2026, full-stack CoWoS packaging orders for non-AI products will begin to shift to OSAT partners, mainly ASE, allowing TSMC to focus more on the CoW (Chip-on-Wafer) segment [1] Group 2: Client Demand Insights - Broadcom is projected to have a CoWoS allocation of 185,000 wafers in 2026, representing a 93% year-over-year increase, driven mainly by demand from Google's TPU project [2] - Morgan Stanley estimates that TPU shipments will reach 2.5 million units in 2026, a 38% increase year-over-year, with additional contributions from Meta's first CoWoS-based ASIC (Athena) and OpenAI's ASIC projects [2] - NVIDIA's demand is expected to remain robust in the first half of 2026 due to increased chip sizes and strong B300 demand, with an estimated production of 2.9 million Rubin GPUs [3] Group 3: AMD's Growth Dynamics - AMD's CoWoS demand is expected to remain stable in 2025 but will grow in 2026 with the ramp-up of MI400/MI450 series and Venice CPU, which utilize HBM and CoWoS-S packaging [4] - The adoption rate of MI400/450 (using CoWoS-L) will be a key variable for AMD's growth trajectory, while the company plans to expand 2.5D/wafers-level fan-out packaging applications in gaming GPUs and high-end server/PC CPUs in 2026/27 [4]

Group 1: Semiconductor Price Increases - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing a new wave of price increases, with TSMC's 2nm process prices rising at least 50% compared to the 3nm process, and the last generation 3nm CPU prices increasing by approximately 20% [1] - TSMC's latest 2nm process is set to begin mass production this quarter, but due to high capital expenditures, the company has no discount or negotiation strategy in place [1] - The flagship chips using the 2nm process are expected to have a unit price of around $280 [1] Group 2: Memory Chip Price Adjustments - Samsung has significantly raised prices for memory and flash products, with DRAM prices increasing by up to 30% and NAND flash prices rising by 5-10% due to supply constraints and surging demand from cloud enterprises [4] - Micron and SanDisk have also announced similar price increases, with Micron's prices rising by 20-30% and the company halting new orders [4] - The demand for memory and storage driven by AI data centers has led to extended delivery times from one month to over six months for various products from major manufacturers [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - TSMC's pricing strategy reflects its strong market position, with Apple increasing its reservation share for TSMC's 2nm capacity to over 50%, contributing 22% of TSMC's revenue in 2024, amounting to $19.4 billion [2] - Qualcomm and MediaTek plan to launch their first 2nm chip products by the end of 2026, but Apple's capacity control strategy may create supply constraints for these competitors, widening the technology gap between Apple and the Android camp [3]

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Group 1 - TSMC's stock price increased over 2.3% to $279 before market opening, with expectations of reaching new highs after opening [1] - The foundry price for TSMC's third-generation 3nm process (N3P) is rumored to have increased by approximately 20% compared to the previous N3E process, while the price for the upcoming 2nm process is expected to rise by 50% [1] - TSMC has secured 15 customers for its 2nm process, with 10 of them focused on HPC applications and the remaining on mobile chip clients [1] Group 2 - Citigroup's report indicates that TSMC is likely to remain a key foundry partner for both NVIDIA and Intel following their collaboration [1] - NVIDIA confirmed in August that TSMC is producing six new chips for its next-generation Rubin architecture [1] - Analysts at Citigroup predict that TSMC's revenue from NVIDIA will grow by 50% and from Intel by 20% by 2026 [1]

Market Perspective - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, with high volatility but not reaching the peaks of previous bull markets, indicating room for expansion in the market [4][8][10] - The market's trading indicators show that the current sentiment is not at a boiling point, with growth in trading volume and turnover still below historical highs [8][9] - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by "policy + profit," particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing, as well as consumer sectors [10][11] Consumer Sector Insights - The rise of the prepared food industry is attributed to technological breakthroughs, the demand for standardized meals from B-end enterprises, and the simplification of cooking needs in the C-end market [4][22][28] - The historical development of prepared foods in the U.S., Japan, and China highlights the importance of logistics, technological advancements, and changing social structures in driving industry growth [23][25][26] High-End Manufacturing Highlights - Rare earth elements are positioned as core resources for high-end manufacturing and strategic emerging industries, with a supply-demand resonance emerging [4][29] - China's rare earth industry is seeing significant revenue growth, with North Rare Earth achieving a revenue of 18.866 billion yuan, a 45.24% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 931 million yuan, up 1951.52% [29][30] - The global demand for rare earth elements is expected to rise due to green transformation and carbon neutrality goals, further solidifying the strategic position of the rare earth industry [4][35] Hard Technology Outlook - The AI sector continues to show strong growth, particularly in wafer foundry and storage segments, driven by increasing demand for AI applications [4][12][16] - The report notes that the storage sector is experiencing upward momentum, primarily due to the shift towards high-end products like DDR5, while traditional consumer electronics and semiconductors are showing relatively flat performance [4][12][16]

Market Overview - The SW Electronics Index increased by 2.96% from September 15 to September 19, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.40 percentage points [1] - Among the six sub-sectors, the performance was as follows: Consumer Electronics (4.85%), Electronic Chemicals II (3.61%), Optical Electronics (2.89%), Semiconductors (2.79%), Components (1.37%), and Other Electronics II (0.74%) [1] TSMC's Market Position - TSMC's revenue for Q2 2025 surpassed $30.2 billion, with a foundry market share of 38% [2] - The global semiconductor foundry market is projected to reach $41.7 billion in Q2 2025, with TSMC holding a dominant 70.2% market share, reflecting an 18.5% increase from the previous quarter [2] - Year-on-year, the global foundry market revenue grew by 19%, with TSMC's market share rising from 31% to 38%, a 7 percentage point increase driven by strong demand for AI and advanced packaging technologies [2] - Approximately 75% of TSMC's Q2 revenue came from advanced process technologies below 7nm, with 3nm contributing about 25% [2] - Major clients include NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU, AMD's Zen 5 CPU, and Apple's M series chips, reinforcing TSMC's leadership in the global semiconductor market [2] - In contrast, Samsung's efforts to advance to 2nm GAA technology lack significant mass production orders, limiting its ability to challenge TSMC's market position [2] NVIDIA and Intel Collaboration - NVIDIA announced a $5 billion investment in Intel to enhance their ecosystem [3] - Intel will customize x86 CPUs for NVIDIA in the data center sector, while NVIDIA will integrate its RTX GPU chips into Intel's x86 system-on-chip (SoC) for personal computing [3] - This partnership aims to merge NVIDIA's AI and accelerated computing stack with Intel's CPU and extensive x86 ecosystem, laying the groundwork for the next computing era [3] - Post-transaction, NVIDIA may hold 4% or more of Intel's shares, becoming one of its major shareholders [3] - The collaboration agreement does not include NVIDIA's chip foundry business [3]

Core Insights - The SW Electronics Index increased by 2.96% from September 15 to September 19, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.40 percentage points [2] - In the six sub-sectors, the performance was as follows: Consumer Electronics (4.85%), Electronic Chemicals II (3.61%), Optical Electronics (2.89%), Semiconductors (2.79%), Components (1.37%), and Other Electronics II (0.74%) [2] Semiconductor Market Overview - TSMC's revenue surpassed $30.2 billion in Q2 2025, with a market share of 38% in the Foundry 2.0 segment [3] - The global semiconductor foundry market is projected to reach $41.7 billion by Q2 2025, with TSMC holding a dominant market share of 70.2% [3] - TSMC's revenue grew by 18.5% compared to the previous quarter, with nearly 75% of its revenue coming from advanced process technologies below 7nm [3] - Major clients include NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple, indicating strong demand for advanced chips driven by AI and high-performance computing [3] - Samsung's efforts in 2nm GAA technology are hindered by a lack of large-scale production orders, limiting its ability to challenge TSMC's market position [3] Strategic Partnerships - NVIDIA announced a $5 billion investment in Intel to enhance collaboration in the data center and personal computing sectors [4] - Intel will customize x86 CPUs for NVIDIA, which will integrate these into its AI infrastructure platform [4] - This partnership aims to merge NVIDIA's AI capabilities with Intel's extensive x86 ecosystem, potentially positioning NVIDIA as a significant shareholder in Intel [5] Investment Recommendations - The electronic semiconductor sector is expected to experience a comprehensive recovery by 2025, with an improved competitive landscape and profitability [6] - Recommended stocks include those in semiconductor design with low PE/PEG ratios, such as Zhongke Lanyun and Juchip Technology, as well as key materials and carbon-silicon industry leaders [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive geoeconomic strategy of the Trump administration, emphasizing the importance of economic security as a core component of national security, particularly focusing on the manufacturing sector and strategic industries [2][3][4]. Group 1: Competitive Geoeconomic Strategy - The Trump administration's geoeconomic strategy has shifted towards a more competitive stance, challenging globalization and emphasizing economic goals over political ones [4][5][10]. - The strategy aims to ensure economic scale advantages based on a specific industrial structure, particularly in high-tech manufacturing [15][16]. - The focus on economic security reflects a broader trend where economic and national security concerns are increasingly intertwined, leading to a more aggressive use of tariffs and investment policies [12][15]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Strategic Industries - The article highlights the significance of reinforcing the manufacturing base in the U.S. economy, noting that while the manufacturing sector's GDP share is low, its total output remains substantial [17][19]. - The U.S. military-industrial complex is particularly emphasized, with American firms leading globally in military revenue, indicating a strong manufacturing foundation [19][21]. - The competitive strategy includes a focus on strategic industries that can provide both micro and macro geoeconomic power, particularly in high-tech sectors [36][37]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Investment - The Trump administration has implemented various policies to promote domestic manufacturing, including tariffs and incentives for foreign direct investment (FDI) [14][25]. - The article notes a significant increase in FDI commitments during the Trump 2.0 period, particularly in the semiconductor industry, indicating a shift towards attracting foreign investment [25][26]. - The approach contrasts with the Biden administration's focus on political alliances and green energy, showcasing a divergence in economic strategies [10][11][40]. Group 4: Implications for Global Trade - The competitive geoeconomic strategy has led to a decentralization of global supply chains, with U.S. trade patterns shifting towards neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico [26][28]. - The article suggests that the U.S. strategy has resulted in increased exports from allies while potentially weakening China's geoeconomic power due to the outflow of manufacturing capabilities [31][32]. - The emphasis on "friend-shoring" and "on-shoring" reflects a broader trend of reshaping global trade dynamics in response to geopolitical tensions [26][28]. Group 5: Importance of Industrial Policy - The article argues for a greater emphasis on industrial policy, particularly demand-side policies, to enhance economic security and competitiveness [42][43]. - It highlights the need for targeted government interventions to influence economic structures and maintain strategic advantages in key industries [44][46]. - The increasing use of industrial policies globally since 2018 underscores the urgency for nations to adapt to the evolving geoeconomic landscape [48][50].