2025 年 04 月 06 日 蛰伏以待，关注权益后续表现 ——转债周度跟踪 20250403 ⚫ 1. 转债估值 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 联系人 张杰 (8621)23297818× zhangjie@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 债 券 周 评 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 张杰 A0230524050002 zhangjie@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com ⚫ 本周转债窄幅震荡，百元平价溢价率小幅扩张，高评级转债估值涨幅略高于低评级。全市 场转债百元溢价率为 28%，单周上行 0.08%，最新分位数水平处于 2017 年以来 72.2 百 分位。低评级转债百元溢价率 23%，单周上行 0.29%，最新分位数水平处于 2017 年以 来 68.3 百分位。高评级转债估值涨幅略高于低评级，最新分位数水平处于 2017 年以来 83.4 百分位。 ⚫ 本周 ...

上 市 公 司 2025 年 04 月 06 日 赛力斯 (601127) ——全年业绩符合预期，布局机器人寻求二次增长曲线 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 03 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 124.60 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 149.89/70.24 | | 市净率 | 16.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.27 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 188,119 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,342.01/10,365.73 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | | 8.12 | | 资产负债率% | | 87.38 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,633/1,510 | | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearc ...

2025 年 04 月 06 日 盐湖股份 (000792) ——业绩符合预期，钾肥景气回暖明显，碳酸锂反转仍需 时间，五矿入主打造中国盐湖 上 市 公 司 基础化工 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | maxy@swsresearch.com 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 21,579 | 15,134 | 19,092 | 21,066 | 22,236 | | 同比增长率（%） | -29.8 | -29.9 | 26.2 | 10.3 | 5.6 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 7,914 | 4,663 | 6,625 | 7,859 | 8,173 | | 同比增长率（%） | -49.2 | -41.1 | 42.1 | 18.6 | 4.0 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.49 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 1.49 | 1.54 | | 毛利率（%） | 56.0 | 51.9 ...

2025 年 04 月 06 日 模型提示情绪继续走低、价值占优 ——量化择时周报 20250403 证券分析师 王小心 A0230524100006 wangxx2@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王小心 (8621)23297818× wangxx2@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 权 指 数 研 究 ⚫ 市场情绪在 3 月的第 3 个交易日向上突破 2，此后市场整体保持向上抬升，但速度有所 减缓，近两周加速下行。截至 2025/4/3，市场情绪结构指标数值为 1，数值较上周五 (3/28)下降 0.6，模型维持看空观点。 ⚫ 市场缩量，资金风险偏好下降、观点不确定性增强是近期市场情绪持续调整的主要原因。 当前市场大盘继续保持弱趋势，从行业交易波动率提高、价量一致性得分下降至低位可以 看出资金观点切换 ...

程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 一 周 回 顾 展 望 2025 年 04 月 06 日 沧海横流方显英雄本色 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/03/31-25/04/06) 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 图表目录 | 图 1：量化情绪指标跟踪 4 | | --- | | 图 2：重点 ETF 跟踪 7 | 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共8页 简单金融 成就梦想 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。2 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 一、短期市场先防范好冲击：特朗普对等关税极限施压后，市场可能要先出清基本面回落 的担忧。全球衰退交易可能快速扩散，25Q2"债强股弱"的 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Five Major Articles" in enhancing the capital market's role in supporting high-quality economic development in China [4][8] - It highlights the rapid growth of the AI industry and its significant impact on the market, particularly in the technology sector [10][15] - The report outlines various financial strategies, including technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, aimed at fostering sustainable economic growth [4][8] Technology Finance - The report notes that as of April 2, 2025, the STAR Market has 586 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 7.9 trillion, with the electronics, computer, and communication sectors accounting for approximately 54.6% of this total [10][15] - It mentions that the cumulative R&D investment by companies in the Shanghai market over the past three years reached 2.7 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 17% [15][17] - The introduction of the "Science and Technology Bond" has led to explosive growth in financing, with over 1.2 trillion issued as of April 2, 2025 [18] Green Finance - The report states that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has launched an ESG disclosure action plan to improve the quality of ESG disclosures among listed companies [21][22] - It highlights the rapid expansion of ESG fund sizes, with 195 pure ESG funds totaling approximately 842.4 billion as of April 2, 2025 [26] - The national carbon market has seen a cumulative transaction volume of 640 million tons, with a total transaction value of 43.62 billion, making it the largest market globally for greenhouse gas emissions [32] Inclusive Finance - The report indicates that the ChiNext board has provided direct financing support for small and micro enterprises, with a total market capitalization of 13.1 trillion as of April 2, 2025 [36] - It mentions that 672 small and micro enterprise bonds have been issued, amounting to approximately 2.9 trillion [42] - The issuance of special bonds for rural revitalization has reached 714, with a total scale of about 5.09 trillion [44] Pension Finance - The report emphasizes the role of REITs in addressing financing challenges in the pension industry, with 1,121 annuity products totaling approximately 2.5 trillion as of April 2, 2025 [50] - It notes the rapid growth of personal pension products, which have reached 321 products with a scale of about 0.5 trillion [50] - The report highlights the government's efforts to promote diverse pension products to meet varying demographic needs [48] Digital Finance - The report discusses the enhancement of digital regulatory platforms to improve risk warning capabilities and the overall digital transformation of the financial sector [56][58] - It mentions the construction of a new generation trading system aimed at creating a digital and intelligent trading environment [53][54] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has launched mobile service platforms to improve transaction efficiency, with significant growth in digital service usage [59]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company continues to consolidate its medical aesthetics institutions, with an increasing proportion of online sales in its clothing segment [1] - The 2024 revenue is projected at 5.691 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 257 million yuan, a growth of 1.4% year-on-year [6] - The medical aesthetics segment is a key driver of performance, with revenue from this sector reaching 2.78 billion yuan, accounting for 48.9% of total revenue [6] - The fashion apparel business faces challenges, with a revenue decline of 3.0% to 1.93 billion yuan, while online sales in this segment grew by 4.0% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2023 to 2027 is as follows: - 2023: 5.145 billion yuan - 2024: 5.691 billion yuan - 2025E: 5.963 billion yuan - 2026E: 6.404 billion yuan - 2027E: 7.057 billion yuan - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 225 million yuan in 2023 to 312 million yuan in 2027 [5][7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 57.4% in 2023 to 58.8% in 2024, with a slight decline to 58.8% by 2027 [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a record high revenue in Q4 2024, with total revenue of 44.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.56%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.50% [6] - The AI terminal, automotive, and low-altitude economy sectors significantly contributed to revenue growth, with AI terminal revenue reaching 40.73 billion yuan, up 32.75% year-on-year [6] - The company aims to become a leading manufacturer of humanoid robots, entering mass production in 2025, leveraging its core technologies in servo motors and motion controllers [6] - The company is positioned as a one-stop solution provider in the foldable screen market, supplying key components to major clients like Huawei and Xiaomi [6] - The company has become a core supplier for AMD in the server sector, providing cooling and power management solutions [6] - The long-term outlook remains positive, with projected net profits of 2.78 billion yuan for 2025 and 3.41 billion yuan for 2026, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 and 17 respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 34.12 billion yuan in 2023 to 63.95 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.3% [5][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 2.05 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.94 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [5][8] - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 19% by 2027, indicating a focus on maintaining profitability amidst revenue growth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's 2024 revenue was 10.355 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.55% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 640 million yuan, down 52.19% year-on-year, indicating performance below market expectations [5] - The decline in revenue is attributed to demand fluctuations and price adjustments from key customers, particularly in the forging and casting product segments [5] - The company is focusing on an integrated industrial chain development, which is expected to open up growth opportunities [5] - The company has seen stable growth in commercial aviation and civilian products, with commercial aviation revenue reaching 1.06 billion yuan, up 71% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates a recovery in the aviation market in 2025, which could lead to stable revenue growth for the company [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 10.355 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 11.707 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 13.1% [5][7] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 640 million yuan, with a significant recovery to 1.171 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 83% year-on-year increase [5][7] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 23.7%, down from 31.3% in 2023, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.6% in 2024 to 7.8% in 2025 [5][7] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 15.94 yuan, with a market capitalization of 23.443 billion yuan [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 39 for 2024, decreasing to 21 in 2025 and further to 19 in 2026 [5][7] - The company’s net asset per share is 8.87 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 47.6% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 112.99 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.11% to 5.70 billion yuan, slightly below expectations due to a decline in long-term equity investment income and a significant increase in income tax expenses [7] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.13 yuan per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of 0.21 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 45.72% and a current dividend yield of about 3.7% [7] - The company’s thermal power generation decline has narrowed, with total power generation of 222.63 billion kWh in 2024, a decrease of 0.52% year-on-year [7] - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 was 511.74 yuan per MWh, a slight decrease of 5.24 yuan per MWh year-on-year, with expectations for minimal price pressure in 2025 [7] - Cost improvements are ongoing, with a 4.13% decrease in operating costs for the thermal power segment in 2024, primarily due to falling coal prices [7] - Financial expenses decreased by 3.78 million yuan to 3.23 billion yuan in 2024, indicating reduced financial pressure [7] - The company is set to acquire high-quality thermal power assets totaling 15.97 million kW for 7.167 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance earnings per share by 7.81% and 2.87% post-acquisition [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted downwards to 6.64 billion yuan and 7.12 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 7.42 billion yuan [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 117.18 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.5% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 4.52 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 3789% [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is projected at 0.65 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 9 [6]