Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, approximately 1.605 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.85%. Excluding one-time gains from the previous year, the actual growth rate is about 27.85% [6] - The consolidation of Guangdong Feng Environmental Protection has contributed significantly to the company's performance, with a net profit contribution of 240 million yuan over four months, exceeding pre-acquisition levels [6] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a commitment to increase dividends per share by no less than 10% from 2024 to 2026 [6] - The report projects an upward revision of the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating 2.043 billion, 2.298 billion, and 2.482 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 12.211 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.7% [5] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 2.043 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.8% [5] - The earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 2.51 yuan, with a gross margin of 32% [5] - The company's return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected at 13.6% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is positioned in the middle to lower range of the AHP model, with scores of 1.76 and 2.17, corresponding to the 23.7% and 38.4% percentiles respectively [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is a high-quality supplier of full vehicle electronic control systems in China, having established a comprehensive product system covering various automotive electronic components over 30 years [2][8]. - The company has successfully penetrated high-end customer segments, including partnerships with international brands such as Ford and Toyota, as well as new energy vehicle manufacturers like Li Auto and NIO [2][9]. - The fundraising will alleviate capacity bottlenecks and benefit from the increasing penetration of automotive electronics and the domestic supply rate of components [2][34]. Summary by Sections AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The AHP score, after excluding liquidity premium factors, is 1.76, placing the company in the 23.7% percentile of the non-Science and Technology Innovation Board AHP model [7][8]. Company Fundamentals and Highlights - The company has a complete product system in automotive electronics, with significant revenue contributions from driving assistance systems, window control, intelligent optics, cockpit central control, and seat adjustment systems [8][16]. - The average annual compound growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2022 to 2024 is 26.16%, while the CAGR for net profit attributable to shareholders is 36.84% [20][19]. Comparable Company Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue and net profit for 2022-2024 are 17.13 billion, 21.47 billion, and 27.27 billion respectively, with net profits of 1.51 billion, 2.05 billion, and 2.82 billion [20][19]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for comparable companies is 29.66X, with the company's industry P/E ratio at 30.62X [19][20]. Investment Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to raise 400 million yuan through the issuance of new shares, with funds allocated to the construction of a new factory and working capital [34][35]. - The new factory is expected to alleviate production capacity constraints and enhance production layout, aiming for an annual production capacity of 12.637 million sets of vehicle electronic control systems [34][35].

Group 1: Market Sentiment Model Insights - The market sentiment score slightly rebounded to 1.9 as of October 17, up from 1.75 the previous week, indicating a neutral sentiment perspective [10][4] - Multiple indicators have turned negative this week, with a rapid decline in price-volume consistency, suggesting a significant drop in the degree of price-volume matching [13][16] - The total trading volume of the A-share market decreased significantly compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in market activity, with the highest trading volume recorded at 25,965.85 billion RMB on October 14 [16][4] Group 2: Sector Performance and Trends - The banking, coal, steel, public utilities, and environmental protection sectors have shown an upward trend in short-term scores, indicating strong short-term trends [37][38] - The short-term score for non-ferrous metals is currently the highest at 89.83, reflecting strong short-term performance in this sector [37][38] - The model indicates that sectors with high trading congestion, such as banking and coal, are experiencing high volatility risks due to valuation and sentiment adjustments [47][42] Group 3: Investment Style and Strategy - The model suggests a preference for large-cap stocks, with signals indicating a shift towards large-cap style dominance, although the strength of this signal is weak [52][51] - The model maintains a value style preference, with increasing strength in the signal, suggesting that value stocks may outperform in the near term [52][51] - The relative strength index (RSI) indicates a shift towards caution in market sentiment, with a decrease in buying momentum and a potential for short-term adjustments [30][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery opportunity at the bottom of the chemical cycle, particularly in the titanium dioxide sector, with major companies expanding globally and focusing on asset acquisitions [3][4]. - Global oil supply is expected to increase significantly, driven by non-OPEC production, while demand remains stable with a projected global GDP growth of 2.8% [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of various chemical chains, including textiles, agriculture, and exports, as well as the potential for recovery in profitability for titanium dioxide due to easing trade tensions and improved overseas real estate conditions [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is anticipated to rise, with OPEC+ expected to increase production, while demand is stable but may slow due to tariffs [4]. - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas exports from the U.S. are likely to increase, reducing import costs [4]. Chemical Product Prices and Trends - The report notes that the PPI for all industrial products fell by 2.3% year-on-year in September, indicating a narrowing decline compared to August [5]. - Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, suggesting a continued recovery in manufacturing activity [5]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on four key areas for investment: textiles, agriculture, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from reduced competition [3]. - Specific companies to watch include Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., and Huafeng Chemical in the textile chain, and various firms in the agricultural sector such as Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [3][4]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings for the coming years [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, highlighting strong performance relative to the market [5][6]. Core Insights - The Tmall Double 11 event showcased strong sales for domestic brands, with significant demand for products from brands like Maogeping and Winona, indicating a robust market response [9][10]. - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector is expected to see continued growth, with Q3 performance meeting expectations and Q4 anticipated to benefit from promotional activities [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of online channels, particularly Tmall and Douyin, in driving sales for domestic brands, which are gaining market share against international competitors [24][26]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market from October 10 to October 17, 2025, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.5%, which is better than the overall market performance [5][6]. - Key stocks in the sector included Jiaheng Jiahu (+35.0%), Yiyi Co. (+18.6%), and Yanjing Co. (+15.6%), while Maogeping (-7.2%) and Shangmei Co. (-5.4%) lagged [6]. Sales and Market Trends - The report notes that the overall retail sales of cosmetics in China reached 291.5 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [10][16]. - The Tmall Double 11 event attracted over 10 million viewers, with domestic brands experiencing sell-out conditions, indicating strong consumer interest and demand [9][10]. Company Highlights - Han Shu, a brand under Shangmei Co., has shown significant improvement in Tmall channel performance, collaborating with popular influencers to enhance sales [9][10]. - The report highlights the strategic partnership of Han Shu with global ambassador Wang Jiaer, aiming to elevate the brand's international presence and market perception [20][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brands with strong online sales growth, such as Maogeping, Shangmei Co., and Shanghai Jahwa, while also monitoring companies like Proya and Marubi for potential performance improvements [12][13]. - In the medical beauty segment, the report suggests investing in companies with strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines, recommending Aimeike as a key player [12][13].

Report Information - Report Title: 500 billion yuan of carry - over quota issued, local bond issuance may continue to soar in Q4 - Local Bond Weekly Tracking 20251017 [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang [1] 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan of carry - over quota to local governments, and local bond issuance may continue to increase in the fourth quarter. Compared with last year, this allocation has increased in scale and expanded in scope. The 500 billion yuan may be issued through both new special bonds and special refinancing bonds, and policy support will drive the growth of local bond issuance in Q4 [2]. - The current issuance progress of new bonds is slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than that of 2023 and 2024. The planned issuance scale of local bonds in October - November 2025 is 923.4 billion yuan, with 507.3 billion yuan for new special bonds [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period's Local Bond Issuance Declined and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - This period (October 13 - 19, 2025) local bonds totaled 32.301 billion yuan in issuance and - 19.781 billion yuan in net financing (last period was 82.528 billion yuan/39.784 billion yuan), and the next period (October 20 - 26, 2025) is expected to issue 247.228 billion yuan and have a net financing of 165.751 billion yuan [2][6]. - The weighted issuance term of local bonds this period was 16.21 years, longer than 12.93 years in the previous period (September 29 - October 12, 2025) [2][6][8]. - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 83.9% and 83.4% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 84.1% and 86.0%. This progress is lower than that of 2023 and 2024 [2][10][12]. - As of October 17, 2025, 28 regions have disclosed a planned issuance scale of 923.4 billion yuan for local bonds in October - November 2025 (542.3 billion yuan in October and 381.1 billion yuan in November), including 507.3 billion yuan for new special bonds (366.3 billion yuan in October and 141 billion yuan in November) [2][17][18]. - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1206 billion yuan (3.1 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1992.4 billion yuan (6.2 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.6%. 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed issuance, and Hubei was added this period [2]. 3.2 This Period's 10 - year Local Bond - Treasury Spread Narrowed, 30 - year Spread Widened, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Rose - As of October 17, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year local bond - treasury spreads were 20.54BP and 17.98BP respectively, narrowing by 4.40BP and widening by 0.26BP compared to October 11, 2025, and were at the 58.80% and 70.20% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][22][24]. - This period's local bond weekly turnover rate was 0.56%, up from 0.35% in the previous period [2][30]. - This period, the 7 - 10 - year local bond yields and liquidity in regions such as Dalian, Qinghai, and Ningxia were better than the national average [2].

Valuation Summary - The current PE and PB ratios for major indices are as follows: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE is 21.3x, PB is 1.8x, at historical percentiles of 79% and 39% respectively - SSE 50 Index PE is 12.0x, PB is 1.3x, at historical percentiles of 65% and 43% respectively - CSI 500 Index PE is 33.4x, PB is 2.2x, at historical percentiles of 63% and 45% respectively - ChiNext Index PE is 41.3x, PB is 5.2x, at historical percentiles of 36% and 57% respectively - CSI 1000 Index PE is 45.7x, PB is 2.4x, at historical percentiles of 65% and 44% respectively - National 2000 Index PE is 58.9x, PB is 2.5x, at historical percentiles of 76% and 58% respectively - STAR 50 Index PE is 174.7x, PB is 6.1x, at historical percentiles of 98% and 67% respectively - North Exchange 50 Index PE is 67.4x, PB is 5.1x, at historical percentiles of 88% and 93% respectively - ChiNext Index relative to CSI 300 PE is 2.9x, PB is 3.5x, at historical percentiles of 22% and 56% respectively [1][2][4] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile historically include: Real Estate, Steel, and IT Services (Software Development) - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile historically include: Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile historically include: White Goods [1][2][5] Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaics: Post-holiday, downstream spot prices slightly declined. Upstream polysilicon futures prices increased by 6.3%, while spot prices remained stable. Midstream silicon wafer prices remained consistent, with potential production increases in Q4. Downstream battery cell prices fell by 0.5% [1][2] - Batteries: Cobalt prices rose by 9.8%, while nickel prices fell by 1.1%. Lithium prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 10.2%, while carbonate and hydroxide prices fell slightly. Strong demand for electrolytes in energy storage is pushing core material prices up [1][2] - New Energy Vehicles: In September 2025, retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles increased by 6.3% YoY, with new energy vehicle sales up by 15.5% YoY, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1][2] Real Estate Chain - Steel: Rebar prices fell by 1.7%, with futures down by 2.1%. Daily crude steel production increased by 7.3% in early October, while steel product output decreased by 1.7% [2] - Cement: National cement price index fell by 1.2%, with insufficient demand to support price increases despite supply-side intentions [2] Consumer Sector - Pork: Average price of live pigs fell by 0.1%, while wholesale pork prices dropped by 4.4% [2] - Alcohol: Wholesale prices for premium liquor slightly increased by 0.01% [2] Midstream Manufacturing - Excavators: Sales in September 2025 increased by 25.4% YoY, driven by domestic infrastructure projects and equipment upgrades [2] Cyclical Sector - Precious Metals: Gold prices increased by 5.8%, with silver prices up by 6.5% amid macroeconomic uncertainties [2]

Group 1 - The report indicates a continued decline in risk appetite, with the short-term trading indicators for the North Exchange reaching absolute lows. The North Exchange 50 index fell by 4.91%, which is less than the declines of the Sci-Tech 50 (-6.16%) and the ChiNext index (-5.71%) [7][12][13] - The market's risk appetite has significantly decreased, with major indices declining and trading volume shrinking. The banking and coal sectors showed strength, while TMT, robotics, and solid-state battery sectors experienced notable declines, with only AI computing leaders performing stably [7][12] - The report anticipates increased market volatility due to several significant events occurring in late October, including the release of third-quarter economic data, quarterly reports from listed companies, and key policy meetings [7][8] Group 2 - This week, one new stock, Changjiang Nengke, was listed on the North Exchange, with a first-day price increase of 254.03%. As of October 17, 2025, there are 279 companies listed on the North Exchange [22][24] - The North Exchange's trading volume for the week was 3.958 billion shares, with a total transaction amount of 92.582 billion yuan. The average daily transaction amount decreased by 2.57% [12][18] - The report highlights that 34 stocks rose while 244 stocks fell, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.14. The top gainers included Litong Technology and Wantong Hydraulic, while the top losers included Aomeisen and Luchao Information [29][30] Group 3 - The report notes that the North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 77.79 times, with a median of 45.06 times, indicating a decline in valuation metrics [19][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with marginal changes and suggests maintaining focus on core assets within the North Exchange [7][8] Group 4 - The new third board saw 10 new listings and 1 delisting this week, with planned financing of 453 million yuan and completed financing of 166 million yuan [39][40] - The report provides insights into the financing activities of companies on the new third board, highlighting significant fundraising efforts by companies like Ziguang Guoxin [41][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry [2]. Core Views - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown stronger performance than the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.5% from October 10 to October 17, 2025, which is better than the overall market performance [4][5]. - The Tmall Double 11 event has seen significant success for domestic brands, with brands like Maogeping experiencing high demand and sold-out products [10]. - The overall performance for Q3 2025 is expected to meet expectations, with a continued upward trend into Q4, driven by promotional events [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market during the specified period, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index down by 1.1%, which is 2.3 percentage points better than the Shenwan A Index [4][5]. - Key stocks in the sector included Jiaheng Jiahua (+35.0%), Yiyi Co. (+18.6%), and Yanjing Co. (+15.6%) [6]. Market Trends - The Tmall Double 11 event on October 15 attracted over 10 million viewers, with domestic brands like Maogeping experiencing supply shortages due to high demand [10]. - The overall sales performance is expected to improve in the coming weeks, particularly with the upcoming Douyin Double 11 event [10]. Q3 Performance Outlook - The demand for cosmetics remains robust, with retail sales growth in July and August outpacing the overall market [11]. - The total retail sales of cosmetics for the first eight months of 2025 reached 291.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [11]. - Domestic brands are leveraging online channels effectively, with Han Shu achieving over 2 billion yuan in GMV in Q3 [12]. Company Highlights - Han Shu announced a global partnership with Wang Jiaer, enhancing its international presence and brand recognition [19][22]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong channel and brand matrices, such as Maogeping, Shanghai Jahwa, and Up Beauty [14]. E-commerce Data - The report highlights significant growth in e-commerce sales for various brands, with Han Shu achieving a 37% increase in GMV [15]. - The overall e-commerce landscape for domestic brands is expected to continue thriving, supported by promotional events and strategic partnerships [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the Chinese skincare market is projected to reach 271.2 billion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline in growth [26]. - Domestic brands are increasingly capturing market share, with a notable presence in the top ten rankings [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies with strong growth potential and robust product pipelines, particularly in the cosmetics and medical beauty sectors [14]. - Specific recommendations include Maogeping, Up Beauty, and Shanghai Jahwa for cosmetics, and Aimeike for medical beauty [14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights various sectors with their respective valuation metrics [1][2]. Core Insights - The report tracks A-share valuations and industry sentiment, indicating that the overall market is experiencing varied valuation levels across different indices and sectors [1][2]. - Key sectors such as real estate, steel, and IT services are noted for their high PE ratios, suggesting potential overvaluation, while white goods are highlighted as undervalued [1][2]. Valuation Comparisons - The report provides a detailed comparison of PE and PB ratios across major indices, with the CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 21.3x and PB at 1.8x, indicating historical percentiles of 79% and 39% respectively [1][4][5]. - The report identifies industries with PE ratios above the historical 85th percentile, including real estate, steel, and IT services, while white goods are noted for being below the 15th percentile [1][7]. Industry Sentiment Tracking - **New Energy**: The report notes a slight decline in downstream prices for photovoltaic products, while upstream polysilicon prices have increased by 6.3%. The demand for lithium materials remains strong due to stable orders in the traditional peak season [1][2]. - **Real Estate Chain**: Steel prices have decreased, with rebar prices down by 1.7% and iron ore prices down by 1.4%. Cement prices are also under pressure due to insufficient demand [2]. - **Consumer Goods**: Pork prices have seen a slight decline, while liquor prices have stabilized. Agricultural products like corn and wheat have mixed price movements [2]. - **Midstream Manufacturing**: Excavator sales have increased by 25.4% year-on-year, driven by infrastructure projects and equipment upgrades. Heavy truck sales have surged by 82.9% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand [2]. - **Cyclical Industries**: The report highlights fluctuations in metal prices due to geopolitical tensions and economic concerns, with precious metals seeing significant price increases [2]. Key Industry Valuations - The report lists specific industry valuations, with real estate at a PE of 120.0 and a PB of 16.6, indicating a high valuation relative to historical norms. In contrast, the white goods sector has a PE of 10.4, suggesting it is undervalued [1][7].