行 业 及 产 业 国防军工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 13 日 商业航天催化持续，继续加大军工 行业关注度 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2026 年第 2 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 13.63%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 15.29%，同期上证综指 上涨 3.82%，沪深 300 上涨 2.79%，创业板指上涨 3.89%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创 业板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上 周国防军工板块 13.63%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 2 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in AI applications within the internet media sector, driven by both industry developments and market dynamics, including a surge in A-share trading volume and increased risk appetite among investors [2][11] - The service industry in China is evolving, integrating technology to enhance productivity and competitiveness, with government policies aimed at expanding service consumption and fostering innovation across various sectors [3][12] Summary by Sections AI Applications in Internet Media - The report identifies key drivers for AI application trends, including OpenAI's initiatives in advertising and health assistant technologies, and the growth of domestic AI user bases [2][11] - A-share media companies are advised to focus on marginal changes in the industry and to be mindful of market rotation, particularly in marketing and e-commerce services [2][11] - Specific recommendations include investing in companies like BlueFocus and 37 Interactive Entertainment, which are positioned to benefit from AI-driven changes in marketing and gaming sectors [2][11] Hong Kong Internet Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis and valuation flexibility in identifying opportunities within the Hong Kong internet sector, particularly those that could become major AI application gateways [3][11] - The anticipated upgrade of AI assistants to agents is expected to reshape traffic patterns and monetization strategies in the sector [3][11] Service Industry Development - The report outlines the integration of technology in the service industry, highlighting sectors such as financial technology, healthcare, and cross-border retail as areas of significant growth potential [3][12] - Investment focus areas include productive services, lifestyle services, and emerging service sectors, with an emphasis on the fusion of traditional industries with new technologies [4][12] Emerging Service Sectors - The report notes the rapid development of AI technologies and their applications, particularly in programming and healthcare, which are expected to drive new productivity paradigms [13] - Cross-border e-commerce is highlighted as a new growth driver, leveraging China's supply chain advantages and supported by favorable policies [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the oil and chemical industry for 2026, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [10]. Core Insights - OPEC+ has decided to continue its production cuts, with a focus on cautious and flexible adjustments based on market conditions. The group has reaffirmed its commitment to compensate for overproduction since January 2024, which is expected to support oil prices in the short term [2][5]. - The downstream polyester sector is tightening in supply and demand, with expectations for improvement in market conditions. Key recommendations include high-quality companies in polyester filament and bottle-grade materials [10]. - The report highlights that oil prices are expected to stabilize, with a limited downside, and suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and improving operational quality [10]. Summary by Sections OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ has confirmed a pause in its planned production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day for February and March 2026 due to seasonal demand weakness. The group emphasizes the need for full compensation for overproduction since January 2024 [2][5]. - The actual production for Q1 2026 is expected to be lower than nominal quotas, with adjustments in compensation plans leading to a reduction of 0.1-0.2 million barrels per day compared to nominal quotas [5]. Price Trends - As of January 9, 2026, Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.34 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.26%. WTI futures rose to $59.12 per barrel, up 3.14% [14]. - The report notes that the average price for Brent and WTI for the week was $61.55 and $57.66 per barrel, respectively, indicating slight fluctuations in the market [14]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages [10]. - It also highlights the offshore oil service sector, suggesting continued optimism for companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to high capital expenditures in offshore exploration [10]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the U.S. oil production for January 2, 2026, was 13.81 million barrels per day, showing a slight decrease from the previous week but a year-on-year increase of 330,000 barrels per day [23]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 544, down 2 from the previous week and down 40 year-on-year, indicating a potential slowdown in exploration activities [25]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the oil and chemical sector, detailing market capitalization, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for companies like China National Petroleum and Hengli Petrochemical [11].

Group 1: Seasonal Capital Inflows - In January, significant seasonal inflows of global capital into Chinese equity markets (including A-shares, H-shares, and Chinese concept stocks) are expected, with a historical probability of 76% for the Hang Seng Index to have a positive annual return if inflows are positive[12] - Since 2000, global capital typically experiences a significant inflow into Hong Kong local stocks in January after marginal outflows in December[10] - In December 2025, the inflow into the Chinese equity market reached $177.6 billion, while the inflow into the emerging market bond market was $177.7 billion[26] Group 2: Global Asset Flow Overview - As of December 31, 2025, the relative inflow ratio for Chinese fixed-income funds reached 11.2%, leading other markets, while equity funds saw a 1.3% inflow, also leading other major markets[23] - In December, the U.S. equity market saw inflows of $778.8 billion, while emerging markets experienced inflows of $339.5 billion[19] - The inflow into the U.S. fixed-income market was substantial, with $391.3 billion in December, indicating a preference for U.S. assets[19] Group 3: Fund Type Analysis - In December, passive equity funds accounted for a significant portion of inflows into emerging markets, with $347 billion, although this was a decrease from $424 billion in November[60] - Active equity funds saw outflows of $7 billion in emerging markets, with China experiencing a $5 billion outflow in December[60] - The inflow into Chinese fixed-income markets was $178 billion in December, representing 68% of the total inflow into emerging market bonds[57]

Group 1 - The core view of the report highlights that Zhenstone Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer of wind power fiberglass fabrics, with a global market share of 35% and plans to expand its production capacity significantly in response to increasing demand in the clean energy sector [7][8][9] - The company has achieved a production capacity of 540,000 tons for clean energy functional materials by 2024, with a focus on both domestic and European markets [7][8] - Zhenstone's revenue from photovoltaic and new energy vehicle materials has seen substantial growth, with year-on-year increases of 150.65% and 68.64% respectively in the first half of 2025 [9][10] Group 2 - The financial performance of Zhenstone Co., Ltd. has been under pressure due to a downturn in the wind power industry, with a projected revenue CAGR of -8.20% from 2022 to 2024 [19][20] - Despite a decline in sales prices, the company's gross margin has remained stable, benefiting from lower raw material costs and improved operational efficiency [20][24] - Zhenstone's asset-liability ratio is relatively high at around 69.27% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to significant fixed asset investments [24][25] Group 3 - The company plans to use the proceeds from its IPO to fund projects that will enhance its production capabilities, including a new fiberglass product base and a composite materials production base, with a total investment of approximately 39.81 billion yuan [35][36] - The new projects aim to increase wind power fiberglass fabric capacity by 215,000 tons and expand into photovoltaic frame production and new energy vehicle components [35][36] - Zhenstone's strategic focus on diversifying its product offerings and entering new markets is expected to create a second growth curve for the company [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the gaming industry as "high" for investment [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan," which aims for significant improvements in solid waste management by 2030, including a target of 4.5 billion tons of comprehensive utilization of major solid waste and 510 million tons of recycling of key resources [2][5][7] - It highlights the shift in the energy sector towards diversified revenue models for thermal power companies, recommending several key players in the industry [8] - The report discusses the current trends in natural gas pricing, noting a general decline in global gas prices due to mild weather conditions and stable supply [10][29] - It outlines the transition of hydrogen energy towards becoming a "regulator" of the power grid, emphasizing its role in energy storage and management [31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Environmental Protection - The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan" was released on January 4, aiming to enhance solid waste management and promote a green economy [5] - By 2030, the plan targets a comprehensive utilization of 4.5 billion tons of major solid waste and 510 million tons of recycling of key resources [2][6] - The focus is on industrial, urban, and agricultural waste, with a comprehensive governance approach to illegal dumping and construction waste [6][7] 2. Natural Gas - As of January 9, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $2.87/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decline of 28.24% [10][11] - The report notes that the European gas prices have also decreased, with the TTF spot price at €29.00/MWh, down 1.43% week-on-week [10][16] - The overall gas market is characterized by stable supply and mild weather, leading to lower demand and prices [10][29] 3. Hydrogen Energy - The report discusses the integration of hydrogen energy into the power grid, highlighting its potential for large-scale energy storage and management [31] - It emphasizes the role of hydrogen in addressing renewable energy challenges and improving grid stability [31][33] - The report recommends companies involved in hydrogen production and technology as key investment opportunities [33] 4. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the electric power equipment, gas, and environmental protection sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 5 to January 9 [34] - It provides insights into the performance of various sectors, indicating a positive trend for certain energy and environmental stocks [36][39] 5. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the establishment of national zero-carbon parks, which will receive significant support for green energy initiatives [39] - It mentions the successful completion of green power transactions in Gansu, indicating a growing market for renewable energy [40][43] - The report includes updates on major companies' performance and strategic developments in the energy sector [44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is positioned in the upper-middle tier of the AHP model, with a score of 2.14, placing it in the 28.9% percentile after excluding liquidity premium factors [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is a leading global manufacturer of wind power fiberglass fabrics, with a production capacity of 540,000 tons of clean energy functional materials by 2024, holding a 35% market share globally [5][11]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in the wind power sector and is also venturing into photovoltaic and new energy vehicle materials, which are expected to open a second growth curve for the company [5][12]. - The company has experienced a significant revenue increase of 48% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by recovering downstream demand and stabilized raw material prices [5][13]. Summary by Sections AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The company’s AHP score is 2.14, with expected allocation ratios for offline investors A and B at 0.0152% and 0.0131%, respectively, under a neutral scenario [10][11]. Fundamental Highlights and Features - The company has the largest wind power fabric production capacity globally and is expanding into new energy sectors [11][12]. - The company’s revenue from photovoltaic and new energy vehicle materials has seen significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 150.65% and 68.64% in the first half of 2025 [12][13]. Comparable Company Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue and net profit from 2022 to 2024 are projected to decline at a CAGR of -8.20% and -11.57%, respectively, due to price pressures in the wind power sector [22][23]. - In the first half of 2025, the company’s revenue reached 5.397 billion yuan, reflecting a 77% year-on-year increase, while net profit was 603 million yuan, up 40% [13][22]. Investment Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to use the raised funds for expanding its fiberglass production base, developing composite material production, and enhancing its research and development capabilities, with a total investment of 3.981 billion yuan [40][41].

Group 1: Economic Discrepancies - By the end of 2025, production indicators such as high furnace operation and PTA operation weakened, while manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%[3] - Consumer retail volume for automobiles and home appliances showed a downward trend, but the overall consumer goods PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4% in December[3] - Cement shipment rates and rebar apparent consumption remained low, with December year-on-year changes of -1.8% and -10% respectively, yet the construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%[4] Group 2: Factors Behind Economic Discrepancies - The shift in economic growth momentum has led to new sectors lacking high-frequency indicators contributing more to the economy, with AI-related industries boosting GDP by approximately 1.5 percentage points[5] - Consumer sectors face "demand overdraw risks," while service consumption, which lacks tracking indicators, has shown resilience, with service retail growth rising since September[5] - Previous debt management affected investment rhythms, with industrial product improvements reflecting raw material purchases rather than actual investments[5] Group 3: Economic Outlook for Early 2026 - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to face downward pressure, but service consumption may benefit from increased policy support, with domestic travel and spending during the New Year holiday exceeding 2019 levels[6] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound in early 2026 due to reduced special refinancing bond issuance and new infrastructure policies, focusing on digital infrastructure and carbon reduction investments[6] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 may extend the "export rush" window, potentially boosting January export figures compared to the previous year[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating due to clear short-term support from the oil supply side [2][3]. Core Insights - OPEC+ continues to pause production increases, with a focus on compensating for overproduction since January 2024, which strengthens short-term supply support [2][3]. - The upstream sector is experiencing rising oil prices, while day rates for self-elevating drilling rigs are declining, indicating a mixed outlook for drilling services [2][13]. - The refining sector shows a decrease in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads are increasing, suggesting a potential improvement in refining profitability [2][47]. - The polyester sector is witnessing a decline in PTA profitability but an increase in polyester filament profitability, indicating a need for close monitoring of demand changes [2][10]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.34 per barrel, up 4.26% week-on-week, while WTI futures rose 3.14% to $59.12 per barrel [13]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419 million barrels, which is 3% lower than the five-year average [14]. - The number of active U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 544, down 2 rigs from the previous week and down 40 rigs year-on-year [27]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $11.04 per barrel, down $4.15 from the previous week [49]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread increased to $15.4 per barrel, up $1.3 from the previous week, but still below the historical average of $24.5 per barrel [52]. - The olefin sector shows a positive trend with an increase in the ethylene-crude oil spread, indicating potential profitability improvements [57]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 5069.25 CNY per ton, down 0.75% week-on-week [2]. - The polyester filament POY spread increased to 905 CNY per ton, up 17 CNY from the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in profitability [2][10]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with expectations for gradual improvement as new capacity comes online [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and demand conditions [10]. - It suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which may benefit from improved cost structures and competitive advantages [10]. - The upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with recommendations for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Engineering [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of index - enhancing products significantly increased in 2025, with A500 and non - traditional broad - based index - enhancing products growing notably. The excess returns of index - enhancing products fluctuated, and the differentiation degree within each broad - based index - enhancing category became larger [7][24]. - The scale of active quantitative funds also grew, with the full - industry quantitative stock - picking strategy and the quantitative products of the active equity team showing obvious scale growth [40]. - The market actively embraced quantitative fixed - income + funds in 2025, with the strategy pool becoming more diverse [76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Index - enhancing Funds - **Scale & New Issuance**: By 25Q3, the scale of index - enhancing products exceeded 2500 billion yuan, with A500 and non - traditional broad - based index - enhancing products having significant scale growth. In 2025, some non - conventional broad - based index - enhancing products in new issuances had large scale. The top 10 custodian banks and fund companies with large new - issuance scales were identified [7][10]. - **Fund Company Statistics**: As of 25Q3, 23 fund companies had index - enhancing product management scales of over 30 billion yuan. E Fund had the largest management scale. Different fund companies had different advantages in various types of index - enhancing products [13]. - **Excess Return Performance**: The Alpha effect of index - enhancing products peaked in 2020 and then declined. In 2025, the excess returns of three major types of index - enhancing products fluctuated, and the differentiation degree within each type increased. Small - cap index - enhancing products had higher excess returns [21][24]. - **High - performing Index - enhancing Products**: Some high - performing index - enhancing products had excess returns exceeding 20% in 2025. Many high - performing products had good performance adaptability in various market environments and had specific factor exposure characteristics [30][32]. - **Index - enhancing Product Watchlist**: The report selected fund products that were superior in their respective types based on multi - dimensional investment ability evaluations [36]. 3.2 Active Quantitative Funds - **Seven Strategy Types & Scale Changes**: Active quantitative funds can be divided into seven major categories. The full - industry quantitative stock - picking strategy and the quantitative products of the active equity team had obvious scale growth in 2025 [39][40]. - **Similar Index - enhancing Strategy**: The partial - equity fund index - enhancing strategy received high attention. Different products had different strategies when benchmarking the partial - equity fund index [46]. - **SmartBeta Strategy - Micro - and Small - cap**: The micro - and small - cap strategy can be classified into three major types. The difference in the degree of market - value sinking of stocks led to different returns [50][51]. - **SmartBeta Strategy - Dividend**: In 2024 and 2025, many public funds deployed dividend - strategy products. Companies sought differentiated layouts, and the investment in Hong Kong stocks had a significant impact on the performance in 2025 [53]. - **SmartBeta Strategy - Growth**: Different growth - style funds adopted different investment strategies, with different industry preferences and market - value exposures [56]. - **SmartBeta Strategy - Value**: Different value - style funds adopted different investment strategies, focusing on different aspects such as value - growth attributes and multi - strategy investment [61]. - **Full - industry Stock - picking Strategy**: The full - industry quantitative stock - picking strategy was diverse, including industry rotation, factor rotation, and multi - strategy [63]. - **Integration of Active and Quantitative**: Some fund managers actively integrated active and quantitative strategies, with different product strategies and positioning [69]. 3.3 Quantitative Fixed - income + Funds - **Scale & New Issuance**: There were about 171 quantitative fixed - income + funds in the market in 2025, with a scale increase of 36.7 billion yuan and a total scale of about 122.547 billion yuan. The market actively embraced quantitative fixed - income + strategies [76]. - **Index - enhancing Strategy**: The index - enhancing strategy in fixed - income + funds provided a tool - type product for obtaining broad - based index beta returns. The effectiveness of the strategy was related to multiple factors, and some fund companies had a large layout in this area [84]. - **Style Strategy**: The style strategy evolved from the value style to the growth style and the barbell strategy. Some companies innovated in this area to meet different market demands [88]. - **Convertible Bond Quantitative Strategy**: The convertible bond quantitative strategy was represented by E Fund's Dual - Bond Enhancement, which used a convertible bond option - pricing model for statistical arbitrage [90]. - **Market Dynamics**: Many active - management fixed - income + fund managers actively embraced quantitative investment, such as China Europe Fund, E Fund, and GF Fund [92]. - **Quantitative Fixed - income + Fund Watchlist**: The report screened out quantitative fixed - income + funds at different volatility levels based on multiple indicators [107].