Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the pharmaceutical sector, with the overall performance of the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increasing by 7.8% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 3.82% [2][3]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's overall valuation stands at 30.6 times earnings, ranking 10th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [5]. - The report highlights significant developments in the long-term care insurance system transitioning from pilot programs to full establishment during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with coverage reaching nearly 300 million people and fund expenditures exceeding 100 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [11]. - Notable advancements in drug commercialization include the launch of Novo Nordisk's oral GLP-1 weight loss drug Wegovy in the U.S., with monthly costs ranging from $149 to $299 for self-paying patients [13][14]. - Moderna has submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for its seasonal flu vaccine mRNA-1010, showing promising efficacy results in clinical trials [15]. - Arrowhead has reported positive mid-stage results for its RNAi therapies ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7, demonstrating significant reductions in visceral and liver fat [16][17]. - GSK's hepatitis B drug Bepirovirsen has shown statistically significant functional cure rates in its Phase III trials [18]. - Recent approvals for innovative drugs in China include BeiGene's BCL-2 inhibitor and Sanofi's APOC3 siRNA drug, which addresses familial chylomicronemia syndrome [19][21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increased by 7.8%, ranking 6th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][3]. - Various sub-sectors showed positive growth, with medical devices and medical outsourcing leading with increases of 10.8% and 11.1%, respectively [5]. Industry Dynamics - The long-term care insurance system is set to expand significantly, with a focus on providing care for the elderly and disabled [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in drug development, particularly in RNAi therapies and small nucleic acid drugs, which are gaining traction in clinical settings [16][18]. Company Developments - Significant partnerships and collaborations are highlighted, such as the $8.88 billion research collaboration between Insilico Medicine and Servier focusing on oncology [20]. - The report notes the successful commercialization of several new drugs, including BeiGene's and Sanofi's recent approvals, which are expected to impact market dynamics positively [19][21]. - The establishment of new companies and subsidiaries, such as the brain-computer interface subsidiary by Xinwei Medical, indicates a strategic shift towards innovative technologies in healthcare [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA) [4][5] Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud continues to accelerate growth, with a significant investment plan of 380 billion over three years, potentially exceeding expectations [3] - The AIDC strategy focuses on high-potential markets, with expected revenue growth slowing but losses significantly narrowing [3] - The report anticipates a challenging macro environment affecting e-commerce growth, with a projected revenue of 286.6 billion for Q3 FY26, reflecting a 2.3% year-on-year increase [4] - The report highlights the success of Taobao's flash purchase business, which has seen substantial growth in market share and order volume [4] - Alibaba Cloud is expected to maintain its leading position, with a projected revenue growth of 35% year-on-year for Q3 FY26 [4] - The report emphasizes the strategic direction of integrating ecosystem collaboration and deep AI empowerment, focusing resources on key areas like "AI + Cloud" technology and instant retail [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected revenue (in million RMB) for FY24 to FY28: 941,168; 996,347; 1,023,358; 1,118,672; 1,215,861, with growth rates of 8.3%, 5.9%, 2.7%, 9.3%, and 8.7% respectively [5] - Non-GAAP net profit (in million RMB) for FY24 to FY28: 158,359; 158,393; 95,827; 122,157; 157,095, with a significant decline of 39.5% expected in FY26 [5] - Adjusted EPS (in RMB) for FY24 to FY28: 62.11; 65.59; 39.69; 50.59; 65.06, with a projected ROE of 16% for FY24 and FY25, dropping to 8% in FY26 and FY27 [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in pig prices, which are stabilizing and maintaining strength. The focus is also on the pet industry following the release of a white paper on the sector [1][3]. - The report suggests that the supply of pigs remains ample in the first half of 2026, with a prolonged bottoming period expected for the industry cycle. The logic for a rebound in 2026 remains intact, presenting potential investment opportunities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of January 11, the national average price for external three yuan pigs is 12.70 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.1%. The supply of large pigs is tight, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased, leading to a temporary tightening of the market [3]. - The price of weaned piglets has also risen, reaching 251 yuan/head, nearing industry cost levels. The report notes that the production capacity reduction has slowed down, with a slight increase in the number of breeding sows [3][4]. Pet Industry - The 2026 China Pet Industry White Paper indicates that the urban pet consumption market reached 312.6 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 4.1% year-on-year. The dog market accounted for 160.6 billion yuan, while the cat market reached 152.0 billion yuan [3]. - The average annual spending per pet owner has shown a slight increase, with dog owners spending an average of 3,006 yuan and cat owners spending 2,085 yuan [3]. Chicken Farming - The average price for white feather broiler chicks has decreased to 3.15 yuan/chick, a week-on-week decline of 6.5%. Despite this, the supply of broilers remains tight, with the average price for broiler chickens at 3.79 yuan/kg [3]. - The report emphasizes that the theme of abundant supply in the white feather chicken market will continue into 2025-2026, and it suggests focusing on leading companies in the sector [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the "Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Action Plan," which aims to enhance solid waste management and promote a circular economy by 2030, targeting a comprehensive utilization of 4.5 billion tons of major solid waste and 510 million tons of recyclable resources annually [2][6][8]. - Global natural gas prices have generally declined, influenced by mild weather conditions, with significant drops in prices across various markets, including a 28.24% decrease in the US Henry Hub spot price [11][12][18]. - The hydrogen energy sector is evolving towards becoming a key regulator in the power grid, with initiatives to integrate clean hydrogen production and utilization into microgrid systems, enhancing energy storage capabilities [35][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Environmental Protection - The "Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Action Plan" aims for significant improvements in solid waste management by 2030, with specific targets for waste recycling and resource utilization [2][6]. - The plan emphasizes the need for a circular economy that does not rely on subsidies, focusing on industrial collaboration and technological innovation to create a sustainable waste management system [7][8]. 2. Natural Gas - Natural gas prices have seen a significant decline, with the US Henry Hub spot price at $2.87/mmBtu, reflecting a 28.24% week-over-week drop [11][12]. - The report notes that the demand for natural gas is expected to remain weak in Northeast Asia, contributing to a slight decrease in LNG prices [11][30]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated natural gas companies that are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved profitability [32]. 3. Hydrogen Energy - The report discusses the strategic positioning of hydrogen energy as a flexible load regulator within the power grid, highlighting its potential to enhance energy storage and consumption efficiency [35][37]. - It emphasizes the importance of hydrogen energy in achieving energy security and autonomy, recommending companies involved in hydrogen production [35][37]. 4. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the electricity equipment, gas, and environmental protection sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the review period [38]. 5. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report outlines significant developments in the renewable energy sector, including the establishment of national zero-carbon parks and the increase in green electricity trading volumes, which are expected to enhance market opportunities for leading companies in the sector [44][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guotai Junan Securities, with a target valuation indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current levels [4][7]. Core Insights - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is showing initial positive results, with the company positioned to align closely with CITIC Securities, enhancing its market presence and operational efficiency [4][6]. - The report highlights the company's improved valuation metrics and operational capabilities post-merger, suggesting that Guotai Junan is on track to catch up with CITIC Securities in terms of fundamental performance [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the favorable external environment, including a potential decline in overseas financing costs and a shift in resident deposits, which could enhance the company's operational flexibility [4][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Guotai Junan are as follows: - 2023: 36,141.29 million - 2024: 43,397.13 million (20.08% YoY growth) - 2025E: 62,138.06 million (43.18% YoY growth) - 2026E: 68,576.14 million (10.36% YoY growth) - 2027E: 72,304.30 million (5.44% YoY growth) [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as: - 2023: 9,374.15 million - 2024: 13,024.08 million (38.94% YoY growth) - 2025E: 27,657.89 million (112.36% YoY growth) - 2026E: 29,528.10 million (6.76% YoY growth) - 2027E: 31,607.95 million (7.04% YoY growth) [5] - The report anticipates a return on equity (ROE) of 6.02% in 2023, increasing to 9.80% by 2025E, before stabilizing around 7.13% in 2026E and 7.35% in 2027E [5]. Strategic Developments - The merger has led to a significant enhancement in the company's organizational structure, with a focus on functional committees to streamline operations and improve efficiency [6][22]. - Guotai Junan is expected to leverage its expanded asset base and improved capital efficiency to enhance its cross-border derivative and international business capabilities [6][9]. - The company aims to strengthen its wealth management and asset management capabilities, with a focus on expanding its client base and service offerings [33][34]. Market Positioning - Guotai Junan has positioned itself as a leading player in the financial services sector, with a significant increase in its market presence and operational metrics post-merger [6][19]. - The company is now ranked among the top ten global investment banks, reflecting its enhanced capabilities and market positioning [17][19]. Valuation and Market Outlook - The report suggests that Guotai Junan's valuation should align with that of CITIC Securities, with a target price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.53x, indicating a substantial upside potential [7][19]. - The anticipated growth in net profit and revenue, coupled with improved operational metrics, positions Guotai Junan favorably for future performance [5][7].

Group 1: Economic Trends - By the end of 2025, production indicators such as high furnace operation and PTA operation showed a decline, while the manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1% in December[3] - The overall consumer goods industry PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4% in December, despite a decline in retail sales of automobiles and home appliances[19] - The construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8% at the end of 2025, despite low cement shipment rates and rebar consumption[26] Group 2: Factors Behind Economic Divergence - The new momentum in economic growth, particularly in AI-related sectors, contributed approximately 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth, while traditional sectors lagged[31] - Consumer high-frequency indicators faced "demand overdraft risks," while service consumption showed resilience, with service retail growth continuing to rise since September[37] - The previous impact of debt restructuring on investment slowed down, but the easing of this effect may lead to a return of investment to high-frequency indicators[41] Group 3: Expectations for Early 2026 - The "old-for-new" consumption policy is expected to face downward pressure, but service consumption may benefit from increased policy support, potentially enhancing resilience[45] - Infrastructure and service sector investments are anticipated to exceed expectations in early 2026 due to the easing of debt restructuring effects and the implementation of proactive investment policies[52] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 may extend the "export rush" window, potentially boosting January export figures compared to the previous year[7]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Public Offering Quantitative Funds: 2025 Annual Strategy Review and 2026 Annual Strategy Outlook" and was released on January 12, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Core Views - In 2025, the scale of index - enhanced products significantly increased, with the total scale reaching 257.2 billion yuan by Q3 2025. The excess returns of index - enhanced products fluctuated, and the differentiation within each broad - based index enhancement became more obvious. Some high - performing index - enhanced products showed good adaptability to various market environments and had specific factor exposures [2][23] - Active quantitative funds can be divided into seven major categories, and the scale of all - industry quantitative stock - selection strategies and active equity team quantitative products increased significantly in 2025 [2][42] - The market actively embraced quantitative fixed - income + funds in 2025, with the total scale increasing by 36.7 billion yuan to about 122.547 billion yuan. The strategy pool of these funds became more diverse, including index - enhancement, style, convertible bond quantitative, and active - quantitative combination strategies [2][83] Section - by - Section Summaries 1. Index - Enhanced Funds 1.1 Scale & New Issuance - By Q3 2025, the scale of index - enhanced products exceeded 250 billion yuan, reaching 257.2 billion yuan, a significant increase from 206.5 billion yuan in Q4 2024. Non - traditional broad - based index - enhanced products such as A500 index - enhanced and some non - traditional broad - based index - enhanced products (e.g., ChiNext Index Enhancement) had significant scale growth [8] - In 2025, some non - conventional broad - based index - enhanced products had large new - issuance scales, such as GF ChiNext Index Enhancement with a new - issuance scale of 2.393 billion yuan [8] 1.2 Fund Company Statistics - As of Q3 2025, E Fund had the largest management scale of index - enhanced products, totaling 26.733 billion yuan. Companies with relatively comprehensive index - enhanced product lines included Huatai - PineBridge and Fullgoal [15] - In different types of index - enhanced products, some fund companies had outstanding performance in 2025. For example, Southern Fund's products in the SSE 50 index - enhanced category had an average excess return of 10.15% [18] 1.3 Excess Return Performance - The Alpha effect of index - enhanced products peaked in 2020 and then declined. In 2025, the excess returns of three major types of index - enhanced products (CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000) fluctuated significantly. The excess return of CSI 1000 index - enhanced products was strong in the first half of 2025, while those of CSI 300 and CSI 500 were weak. By the fourth quarter, most excess returns recovered [23] - The differentiation within each broad - based index enhancement was greater in 2025, especially in the CSI 1000 index - enhanced products, where the standard deviation of excess returns exceeded 6%, and the performance difference between the best - and worst - performing products was close to 25% [25] 1.4 High - Performing Index - Enhanced Products - In 2025, some high - performing index - enhanced products had significant excess returns. For example, Furong CSI 300 Enhancement had the best performance among CSI 300 index - enhanced products, and ICBC Credit Suisse CSI 1000 Index Enhancement performed well among CSI 1000 index - enhanced products [33] - Many high - performing index - enhanced products showed good performance in various market environments. Commonly positively exposed factors included growth, dividend, profitability, and analyst factors, while negatively exposed factors included volatility, liquidity, market capitalization, and valuation [35][37] 1.5 Index - Enhanced Product Watch List - The report selected fund products that were dominant in their respective types based on multi - dimensional investment ability evaluations, considering factors such as the ability to convert trading turnover into returns, the stability of Alpha acquisition, and performance stability in various market environments [39] 2. Active Quantitative Funds 2.1 Seven Strategy Types & Scale Changes - Active quantitative funds can be divided into seven major categories: all - industry quantitative stock - selection, active equity team quantitative, style funds, quasi - index - enhanced funds, industry - themed funds, industry - rotation funds, and Hong Kong stock quantitative funds [42] - The scale of all - industry quantitative stock - selection strategies increased significantly, followed by active equity team quantitative products. The total scale of active quantitative funds in Q3 2025 was 227.895 billion yuan [43] 2.2 Quasi - Index - Enhanced Strategy - Some quasi - index - enhanced strategies targeted the CSI 300, CSI 500, or the active equity fund index. Products such as Bodaoyuanhang and Bodaojiuhang targeted the active equity fund index, but they had different strategies [49] 2.3 SmartBeta Strategy: Small - and Micro - Cap - The small - and micro - cap SmartBeta strategy can be divided into three categories: more focused on micro - cap stocks, more focused on small - cap stocks, and similar to CSI 2000 index - enhancement strategies. The degree of market - capitalization decline of stocks affected the product returns [53] 2.4 SmartBeta Strategy: Dividend - In 2024 and 2025, many public - offering funds launched dividend - strategy products. Some companies sought differentiated layouts, such as Ruidaxinhong Quantitative 6 - Month Holding with a market - capitalization decline in dividend stocks and GF High - Dividend Preference focusing on specific company screening and Hong Kong stock dividend investment opportunities [56] 2.5 SmartBeta Strategy: Growth - Different growth - style active quantitative funds had different investment strategies. For example, Bodaogrowth Zhihang used a multi - factor stock - selection enhancement model based on the CITIC Growth Style Index, and GF New - Generation Selection focused on selecting high - growth stocks [59][60] 2.6 SmartBeta Strategy: Value - Value - style active quantitative funds, such as GF Value Pilot One - Year Holding, combined subjective fundamental research and stock - selection with a value - growth style. Other products, like Caitong Huazhen Quantitative Stock - Selection, targeted specific benchmark indices [65] 2.7 All - Industry Stock - Selection Strategy - The all - industry quantitative stock - selection strategy was diverse. Products such as Guojin Quantitative Multi - Factor used factor - rotation strategies, China Merchants Quantitative Selection used a PB - ROE framework, and Hua'an Event - Driven Quantitative Strategy adopted an industry - rotation strategy [67][69] 2.8 Integration of Active and Quantitative - Some fund managers, such as Yang Dong of GF Fund and Zhang Xueming of China Europe Fund, integrated active and quantitative strategies in their product management. Their products had different strategy positioning and characteristics [74][77] 3. Quantitative Fixed - Income + Funds 3.1 Scale & New Issuance - There were about 171 quantitative fixed - income + funds in the market in 2025, with the total scale increasing by 36.7 billion yuan to about 122.547 billion yuan. The top - ranked funds in terms of scale reached tens of billions of yuan [83] - In 2025, fund companies paid high attention to quantitative fixed - income + funds, and about 1/5 of the new - issued products belonged to quantitative strategies [88] 3.2 Index - Enhancement Strategy - Fixed - income + funds using index - enhancement strategies in the equity part provided beta returns of broad - based indices. The effectiveness of the strategy was related to the characteristics of the benchmark index, investment value, product type, and position - central setting [92] 3.3 Style Strategy - The style strategy of fixed - income + funds evolved from value - style to growth - style and barbell strategies. Some products, such as China Europe Dingli, adopted a boom - growth strategy, while others used barbell strategies that combined dividends and growth [96] 3.4 Convertible Bond Quantitative Strategy - E Fund Dual - Bond Enhancement was a representative product of convertible bond quantitative strategies, using a convertible bond option - pricing model for statistical arbitrage [98] 3.5 Market Trends - Many fund companies' active - management fixed - income + fund managers actively embraced quantitative investment. For example, China Europe Fund promoted the "industrialization" of the investment - research system and developed a four - factor SmartBeta strategy, and E Fund's Bao Zhengyu combined active research and quantitative models [100][111] 3.6 Quantitative Fixed - Income + Fund Watch List - The report selected quantitative fixed - income + funds with different volatility levels as the watch list based on factors such as risk - control ability, return stability, and performance sustainability [115]

2026 年 01 月 12 日 逆向策略 ETF 发行 -海外创新产品周报 20260112 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 由万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 载 9T3 美国 ETF 创新产品：逆向策略 ETF 发行。 上周美国共 11 只新发产品，Global X 发行零 ○ 息债券目标到期日系列产品; Tidal 和 LOGIQ 上周发行一只 "逆向策略" ETF, 通过和市 场反向的观点寻找股票、债券中的低估机会，产品可以通过期权等工具来增厚收益。 美国 ETF 资金流向：国际股票产品流入再次超过美国股票。过去一周中，美国国际股票 O ETF 流入再次超过美国国内股票产品，债券 ETF 有 100 亿美元以上流入；Vanquard 标 普 500ETF 继续为流入第一产品，股票、债券的宽基产品都在流入前列，贝莱德的国际股 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the photovoltaic sector [2][7]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective from April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry towards high-quality development [1][2]. - A "window period" is expected to create a surge in export orders and production increases in Q1 2026, improving the performance of companies heavily reliant on exports [2]. - Following the end of the export rebate, overseas pricing for photovoltaic components is anticipated to rise, benefiting leading companies with strong brand and channel advantages [2]. - The cancellation of the rebate is seen as a response to the industry's call to reduce low-price competition, which may accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and allow leading firms to gain market share [2]. - Companies with overseas production capabilities and local market presence are expected to benefit from the reduced cost disadvantage of local manufacturing [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be eliminated, transitioning the industry towards a more sustainable growth model [1][2]. Market Dynamics - A surge in orders and production is expected in Q1 2026 due to the impending policy change, similar to previous "rush to install" phenomena [2]. - The end of the rebate is likely to lead to a reevaluation of overseas component prices, with stronger pricing power for top-tier companies [2]. Competitive Landscape - The cancellation of the rebate is anticipated to facilitate the exit of low-efficiency production capacities, allowing leading companies to enhance their market share through technological and brand advantages [2]. - Companies with advanced technologies and cost advantages, such as those focusing on TOPCon/BC technologies and silicon material upgrades, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2]. Valuation of Key Companies - A table of key companies with their respective valuations and projected earnings for 2025-2027 is provided, indicating varying levels of profitability and market performance [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI applications are in the early stages of monetization, with significant calendar effects in investment opportunities. It emphasizes the importance of capturing marginal changes in the industry and being mindful of rotation rhythms [2]. - The report notes that the AI application market is driven by factors such as the introduction of advertising by OpenAI and the growth of AI application users in China, with ByteDance's Doubao surpassing 100 million daily active users [1][2]. - The report identifies key opportunities in the market, particularly in sectors like gaming, AI video, and advertising, where companies are expected to benefit from AI advancements and changing consumer behaviors [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections AI Applications - The report discusses the critical phase of user growth and monetization for AI applications, with significant developments in both domestic and international markets [1]. - It mentions the emergence of AI general assistants and their potential to reshape traffic patterns, with companies like Tencent and Alibaba being highlighted for their ecosystem advantages [3]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is noted for its low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and the upcoming Spring Festival, which is expected to boost demand. Companies such as Giant Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment are recommended for their growth potential [3]. AI Video and IP - The report emphasizes the rapid advancement of AI video and domestic AI comic dramas, with a focus on copyright as a core competitive advantage. Companies like Chinese Online and Huayi Brothers are highlighted for their potential in this space [3]. Advertising and UGC - The report indicates that AI is expected to enhance advertising monetization efficiency and drive user-generated content (UGC) community growth. Companies like Bilibili and Kuaishou are noted for their strong user and advertising growth prospects [3]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization, revenue forecasts, and profit margins for 2024 to 2026, showcasing the expected growth trajectories in the industry [5].