Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities likely to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the elevation of housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of November 15-21, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 2.54 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 26.3%. The transaction volume for first and second-tier cities rose by 28.6%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline of 5% [3][4]. - For November 2025, the total new housing transaction volume in 34 cities was 6.348 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 32.7% [4][6]. Second-hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of November 15-21, 2025, 13 key cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction volume of 1.073 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 12.8%. The cumulative transaction volume for November was 3.412 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8% [10][11]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - In the week of November 15-21, 2025, 15 key cities had a total of 890,000 square meters of new housing launched, with a corresponding transaction volume of 920,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 1.04. The average monthly inventory turnover period was 23.3 months, a decrease of 0.17 months from the previous period [20][22]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting on November 21, 2025, emphasizing the need for innovative approaches in planning, funding, operation, and governance [31][32]. - Guangzhou is actively promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, with specific policies being implemented in various cities to support housing supply [31][32]. Company Dynamics - Major real estate companies are actively engaged in financing, with several issuing bonds and short-term financing instruments. For instance, China Merchants Shekou issued bonds totaling 5.04 billion yuan [36][38]. - The real estate sector underperformed the broader market, with the SW Real Estate Index declining by 5.83% compared to a 3.77% drop in the CSI 300 Index [42][45].

房地产 2025 年 11 月 23 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房成交环比回升，二手房成交环比回落，新房成交推盘比回升。上周(11.15- 11.21)34 个重点城市新房合计成交 254 万平米，环比+26.3%，其中，一二线环比+28.6%，三四线 环比-5%。11 月(11.1-11.21)34 城一手房成交同比-33%，较 10 月-6.4pct。其中，一二线同比- 31.5%，三四线同比-46.4%，分别较 10 月-6.6pct 和-5.8pct。上周 13 城二手房合计成交 107.3 万平 米，环比-12.8%；11 月 ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 转债抗跌性突出,百元估 40% 转债周度跟踪 20251121 1. 周观点及展望 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 表 1: 本周百元估值表现偏强,再度逼近前高 | 百元溢价率估值 | 最新値 | 単周变化 | 2017 以来分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 保留异常点 | | | 全样本 | 39.6% | 3.5% | 97.6% | | AA+(含)以上 | 30.8% | 2.4% | 100.0% | | AA(含)以下 | 40.7% | 3.6% | 96.3% | | | | 去除异常点 | | | 全样本 | 30.5% | 0.6% | 99.8% | | ...

及 产 业 建筑装饰 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 11 月 23 日 住建部召开城市更新工作推进会，强调"四 好"建设 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20251117-20251121） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-6.11%，沪深 300 指 数-3.77%，相对收益为-2.34pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为国际 工程（-2.37%）、基建央企（-4.69%）、基建国企（-5.64%），对应 行业内三个公司：北方国际（+5.89%）、中国交 ...

相关研究 2025 年 11 月 23 日 转债抗跌性突出，百元估值逼近 40% ——转债周度跟踪 20251121 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 周 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 在转债市场再度逼近 8 月底高点的背景下，本周再度发生明显回撤，8 月底至今转债指数 形成"双顶"格局，微盘股回撤较大。与 8 月底相比，本轮转债市场的抗跌性要明显强 于 8 月底，估值表现较强，百元溢价率估值逼近 40%、明显超过 8 月底高点，或与两方 面因素有关：一是本轮修复行情中高价转债价格和估值都明显偏弱，因此高价区通过估值 逆向支撑起到了较好的安全垫作用；二是从两只 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates, reaching a new high, driven by a notable decline in Russian oil exports, which has created additional demand for oil transportation from the Middle East to India and China [3][4] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the transportation sector, particularly in shipping and aviation, with recommendations for specific companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring seasonal trends in freight rates, particularly the potential for a "not-so-dull" off-season from December to February [3] Industry Overview - The transportation index has decreased by 5.00%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points, with the express delivery sector showing the smallest decline at -2.75% and the public transport sector experiencing the largest drop at -9.35% [4][11] - The shipping sector has shown mixed performance, with the Baltic Dry Index increasing by 5.67% while the coastal dry bulk freight index fell by 3.47% [4][11] - The report notes that the average freight rate for VLCCs has risen by 5% week-on-week, reaching $126,371 per day, with the Middle East to Far East route hitting a new high of $138,144 per day [3][4] Shipping Sector Insights - The report indicates that the average freight rate for the fourth quarter is approaching $99,000 per day, marking it as one of the highest quarterly averages in history [3] - The decline in Russian oil exports has been significant, dropping from nearly 4 million barrels per day to around 3 million barrels per day, which has increased demand for oil from the Middle East [3][4] - The report also highlights the recovery of chartering activities following the Bahri conference, with shipowners beginning to control capacity due to tightening supply [3] Aviation Sector Insights - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain, with an aging fleet expected to persist over the next 5-10 years, leading to constrained supply [3] - It anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability as capacity is allocated to international routes, suggesting a potential golden era for airlines [3] - Recommendations include major airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from these trends [3] Express Delivery Sector Insights - The express delivery industry is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price recovery leading to utility-like profitability, continued competitive pressure, or higher-level consolidation [3] - Companies such as Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong potential due to their competitive advantages and market positioning [3] High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a yield of 8.08% and China Railway with a yield of 3.95% [21] - The focus on high dividend stocks is seen as a stable investment strategy amidst market fluctuations [21]

Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI technology, particularly with Google's release of Gemini 3 Pro and Nano Banana Pro, which enhance multi-modal understanding and production capabilities [4][5][6] - The Chinese AI industry is expected to see accelerated innovation across computing power, models, and applications in 2026, transitioning from a competitive landscape to a more integrated ecosystem [4][5][6] - Huawei's Flex:ai container technology represents a key breakthrough in AI infrastructure, enabling efficient management of heterogeneous computing resources [4][5][6] Computing Power - The report identifies 2026 as the year of industrialization for domestic computing power, with significant advancements in domestic AI chips and supernodes, showcasing strong engineering capabilities [4][18][22] - Domestic supernodes are categorized into "multi-cabinet" and "single high-density" paths, with Huawei's CM384 and other solutions demonstrating competitive advantages [22][23][31] - Innovations in server architecture and cooling technologies are highlighted, with the potential to enhance overall computing performance and efficiency [27][30][31] Models - The gap between Chinese and American large models is narrowing, with domestic models like DeepSeek and Qwen3 showing competitive performance and cost-effectiveness [33][36] - The report predicts that the monetization of large models will accelerate in 2025, focusing on AI programming and multi-modal applications [33][34] - The introduction of mid-training as a distinct phase in model development is expected to enhance the performance and efficiency of large models [52][55] Applications - The report emphasizes the importance of industry know-how as a competitive advantage in the software sector, suggesting that large models cannot fully replace customized software solutions [58][60] - AI applications are in the early stages of penetration within the software industry, with significant growth potential anticipated as companies begin to disclose AI-related revenues [61][64] - The report draws parallels between the current AI application landscape and the early days of cloud computing, indicating a favorable investment window for software companies [64] AI Infrastructure - Huawei's Flex:ai technology is positioned as a critical component of AI infrastructure, enabling the unified management of various computing resources [65][67] - The report notes that traditional container technologies are insufficient for AI workloads, highlighting the need for specialized AI containers to meet evolving demands [67][68]

Core Viewpoints - The current adjustment is characterized as a "doubtful bull market level," indicating that the major trends in the AI industry chain have not ended, although there are short-term fluctuations and a temporary lack of cost-effectiveness in large trends. This situation resembles historical patterns observed in early 2014, early 2018, and early 2021 [1][3][5] - The "two-stage bull market theory" remains unchanged, suggesting that the transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is a typical feature of the A-share bull market cycle. The transition period is expected to occur in the first half of 2026, with a full bull market potentially starting in the second half of 2026 [1][5][6] Summary by Sections Adjustment Phase - The adjustment phase is seen as a "doubtful bull market level," where the AI industry chain is experiencing a lack of cost-effectiveness, leading to a market correction. Historical experiences indicate that such adjustments are typical and often occur in quarterly cycles [3][4] - The current market conditions show that the implied equity risk premium (ERP) in sectors like telecommunications and electronics is still above historical lows, while the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are at absolute historical highs [3][4] Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is expected to be more promising post-adjustment, with economic growth needing to maintain a high level to achieve the 2035 medium-developed country goal. The third quarter of 2025 showed weak economic performance, and December 2025 is seen as a critical window for laying out economic policies for 2026 [6][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to see a rapid improvement in cost-effectiveness, with institutional investors reducing their technology holdings in the short term. The micro-structural improvements in the technology sector are also expected to play a significant role in the spring market rotation [6][7] 2026 Industry Style and Rhythm Outlook - The transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is expected to favor high-dividend defensive stocks. The actual improvement in economic sentiment will catalyze cyclical stocks to lead index breakthroughs, with technology trends and manufacturing global influence being the main themes of the bull market [8] - In the spring of 2026, the early validation of policy bottoms, cyclical price increases, and improved year-on-year PPI expectations will provide a foundation for cyclical assets. Key areas of focus include basic chemicals, industrial technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense industries, with potential rebounds in AI computing power, storage, energy storage, and robotics [8]

Group 1 - Google's release of Gemini 3 Pro and Nano Banana Pro significantly enhances multi-modal understanding and production capabilities, moving beyond simple image generation to more complex outputs [5][7][20] - The Chinese AI industry is expected to evolve from a competitive landscape to a more structured development path by 2026, with opportunities in computing power, models, and applications [5][6][20] - Huawei's Flex:ai technology represents a breakthrough in AI infrastructure, improving computing resource utilization by 30% through advanced scheduling and management of heterogeneous computing resources [5][6][76] Group 2 - The performance gap between Chinese and American large models is narrowing, with domestic models like DeepSeek and Qwen3 showing competitive capabilities in language and reasoning tasks [35][38][42] - The trend of "super nodes" in computing power is becoming clearer, with significant advancements in domestic AI chip performance and architecture, enhancing the overall competitiveness of Chinese solutions [20][25][33] - The software industry in China is entering a prime period for AI application, leveraging industry-specific know-how that large models cannot fully replace, thus creating a unique competitive advantage [63][66][70] Group 3 - The introduction of mid-training in model development signifies a shift towards a more refined and systematic approach, enhancing the capabilities of large models through targeted training [56][60] - The emergence of physical AI, which combines physical laws with data-driven decision-making, is expected to revolutionize various industries, particularly in areas like autonomous driving and digital twins [51][52] - Huawei's Flex:ai is positioned to compete with NVIDIA's Run:ai, offering a more versatile solution for managing diverse AI workloads across different hardware platforms [79][81]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current adjustment phase is characterized as a "doubtful bull market level," with the AI industry chain experiencing a significant trend that has not yet ended, while smaller fluctuations are present and the cost-effectiveness of large trends is temporarily insufficient. This situation resembles historical patterns observed in early 2014 with the ChiNext, early 2018 with food and beverage, and early 2021 with new energy [4][6][7] - The "bull market two-stage theory" remains unchanged, confirming the high-level area of the bull market 1.0 phase. The transition from bull market 1.0 to 2.0 is expected to occur in the first half of 2026, with a focus on the accumulation of conditions for a comprehensive bull market and adjustments in industry trends to digest cost-effectiveness issues [6][7][9] - The report emphasizes that while adjustments are occurring, it is crucial to maintain a firm belief in the bull market. The adjustment phase is seen as a potential bottom, particularly when it aligns with the core track's bull-bear boundary [6][7] Group 2 - The report expresses optimism for the spring market following the adjustment, highlighting that achieving the 2035 medium-developed country goal requires maintaining a high economic growth rate. The economic performance in Q3 2025 was weak, and December 2025 is identified as a critical window for laying out economic policies for 2026, with the possibility of an early verification of the "policy bottom" [7][8] - Two key clues for the spring market are discussed: first, the management's emphasis on economic growth and the potential early verification of the "policy bottom"; second, the mid-term upward trend of the technology industry remains unchanged, with the AI industry still in "stage 3" and moving towards "stage 4," indicating non-linear growth in industry profits [8][9] - The report anticipates that the transition from bull market 1.0 to 2.0 will favor high-dividend defensive strategies, with the actual improvement in economic sentiment catalyzing a breakthrough in cyclical stocks, while the technology industry's trend and global influence of manufacturing will be the main lines of the bull market [9] Group 3 - The report outlines expectations for the 2026 industry style rhythm, indicating that cyclical stocks may serve as the foundational assets for the spring market, with basic chemicals and industrial technology being highlighted as higher elasticity directions. The technology sector is expected to rebound, focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense industries [9][10] - Specific sectors such as AI computing power, storage, energy storage, and robotics are anticipated to have rebound opportunities in the spring [9][10] - The report includes quantitative sentiment indicators and ETF tracking data, providing insights into market dynamics and investor sentiment [2][17]