Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [7][19]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a projected increase in operating income from 84.23 billion RMB in FY2023 to 130.8 billion RMB by FY2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% [7][19]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 9.6 billion RMB in FY2023 to 15.1 billion RMB in FY2027, with a steady growth trajectory [7][19]. - The company has successfully expanded its "super premium" store concept, with 126 stores opened by the end of 2025, exceeding expectations and contributing to its revenue growth [7][19]. - The company has maintained a stable discount rate of 7-7.1, indicating effective inventory management and pricing strategy [7][19]. - The introduction of new product lines and strategic marketing partnerships has enhanced brand visibility and sales performance, particularly in the running and basketball segments [7][19]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: 84.23 billion RMB, 100.7 billion RMB, 111.8 billion RMB, 121.4 billion RMB, and 130.8 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 21%, 20%, 11%, 9%, and 8% [7][19]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 9.6 billion RMB, 11.5 billion RMB, 12.6 billion RMB, 13.9 billion RMB, and 15.1 billion RMB, with growth rates of 29%, 20%, 10%, 10%, and 9% [7][19]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 41.1% in FY2023 to 41.9% in FY2027, indicating efficient cost management [7][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth momentum with double-digit revenue growth, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025, where both adult and children's apparel retail sales increased by approximately 10% year-on-year [7] - The expansion of super stores has exceeded expectations, with a total of 126 super stores opened by the end of 2025, including 21 children's clothing stores, contributing significantly to offline growth [7] - The company maintains a healthy inventory level with a stable discount rate, indicating robust operational performance [7] - Product innovation and enhanced marketing strategies are driving brand strength, with new product launches in running and basketball categories [7] - The company is also expanding its outdoor brand "One Way," which is expected to capitalize on the growing outdoor trend [7] - The financial forecasts indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with projected net profits of 12.6 billion, 13.9 billion, and 15.1 billion RMB for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively [6][18] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections are as follows: - FY2023: 84.23 billion RMB - FY2024: 100.7 billion RMB - FY2025E: 111.8 billion RMB - FY2026E: 121.4 billion RMB - FY2027E: 130.8 billion RMB - Net profit projections are as follows: - FY2023: 9.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 11.5 billion RMB - FY2025E: 12.6 billion RMB - FY2026E: 13.9 billion RMB - FY2027E: 15.1 billion RMB - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 41.1% in FY2023 to 41.9% in FY2027 [6][18]

Group 1: Project Approval Dynamics - As of January 12, 2026, there were 19 new private placement projects added in the last two weeks, a decrease of 5 projects compared to the previous period[7] - The number of projects terminated increased by 1 to 6, with 2 being competitive bidding projects[7] - The approval rate for projects was 100%, with 11 projects approved by the review committee, an increase of 1 project[19] Group 2: Fundraising Overview - The total fundraising amount for the 4 projects listed in the last two weeks was 2.825 billion yuan, a decrease of 61.23% compared to the previous period[32] - Among the competitive bidding projects, the average discount rate based on market price was 22.76%, an increase of 10.20 percentage points[32] - The average subscription rate for competitive bidding projects was 93.27%, a decrease of 5.71 percentage points[32] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Dongfang Tanye plans to raise 1.19 billion yuan for projects including a digital factory for molybdenum and copper metallurgy, with a projected revenue growth of over 33% in the first three quarters of 2025[21] - Huaci Co., Ltd. aims to raise no more than 700 million yuan for the ASEAN Ceramic Valley project, with a revenue growth of over 8% in 2024 and 2025[24] - Aopumai intends to raise up to 362 million yuan to acquire a preclinical CRO service provider, with revenue growth exceeding 20% in the first three quarters of 2025[25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal prices are expected to remain elevated due to persistent cold weather and improving demand, with power coal prices showing a week-on-week increase [1][6]. - The report notes that the supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and environmental checks in major production areas, which is expected to support coal prices [1][5]. - The report recommends stable, high-dividend companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to growth-oriented coal companies [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - A national safety production meeting was held to enhance safety measures in coal mining, emphasizing a systematic approach to safety governance [5]. - A new coal transportation route from Longkou to Guangzhou has been established, which is significant for energy security and regional economic development [5]. Price Trends - As of January 9, 2026, power coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were reported at 526, 613, and 699 CNY/ton for different grades, reflecting week-on-week increases [1]. - The report indicates that the average daily consumption of coal has improved, with a noted increase in coal output from production areas [1][2]. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased to 63.34 USD/barrel, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 4.26%, which may influence coal prices [11]. Port Inventory Trends - The average daily coal inflow at the Bohai Rim ports increased to 1.4613 million tons, while the outflow also saw a slight increase, indicating a dynamic supply-demand balance [16]. - Port inventories decreased to 26.727 million tons, a reduction of 2.91% week-on-week, suggesting tightening supply conditions [16]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs decreased to 31.90 CNY/ton, while international shipping rates showed mixed trends, with some routes experiencing price increases [22]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their stock prices, market capitalizations, and projected earnings ratios for the upcoming years [25].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 12, 2026, there were 19 new private placement projects added in the last two weeks, a decrease of 5 projects compared to the previous period[7] - The number of projects terminated increased by 1 to 6, with 2 being competitive bidding projects[7] - The approval rate for projects was 100%, with 11 projects approved by the review committee, an increase of 1[19] Group 2: Fundraising and Valuation - The total fundraising amount for the 4 projects listed in the last two weeks was 2.825 billion yuan, a decrease of 61.23%[34] - The average price discount rate for competitive bidding projects was 22.76%, an increase of 10.20 percentage points[34] - The PE and PB ratios for Dongfang Tantalum were 71.14x and 6.92x, respectively, significantly higher than the industry average[22] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The absolute return rate for newly unlocked competitive bidding projects averaged 60.55%, with an excess return rate of 26.36%, both up over 36 percentage points[4] - The average industry beta during the "issuance-unlocking" period was 43.76%, an increase of 14.97 percentage points[4] - The average individual stock alpha during the same period was 35.66%, up 29.54 percentage points[4] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected approval processes, fluctuations in secondary market stock prices, and changes in the competitive bidding market environment[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and high demand from cold weather [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as of January 9, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port have increased, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades priced at 526, 613, and 699 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 21, 20, and 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [1]. - Supply is expected to contract due to ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures, while demand remains robust due to cold weather, supporting higher thermal coal prices [1]. - The report also notes that the average daily consumption of coal has improved, with a daily average of 164.79 million tons being shipped out from the Bohai Rim ports, a 0.69% increase week-on-week [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - A national safety production meeting was held on January 6, emphasizing the need for stringent safety measures in mining operations [7]. - A new coal transportation route from Longkou to Guangzhou was inaugurated, enhancing coal distribution efficiency [7]. 2. Price Movements - Domestic thermal coal prices have seen a week-on-week increase, with specific grades reporting price hikes [8]. - International thermal coal prices have shown stability with slight increases in certain markets, such as Indonesia [9]. 3. Inventory and Supply - Bohai Rim port coal inventory decreased to 26.727 million tons, a 2.91% drop week-on-week, indicating tighter supply conditions [20]. - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 4.28% week-on-week, while outflow also saw a slight increase [20]. 4. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased slightly, with average freight rates reported at 31.90 CNY/ton, a 1.69% decline week-on-week [26]. - International shipping rates have shown mixed trends, with some routes experiencing price increases while others have decreased [26]. 5. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [30].

吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 2026 年 01 月 13 日 国亮新材（920076）：耐火材料小巨 人，募投推进智能化、绿色化 ——北交所新股申购策略报告之一百五十六 相关研究 - 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 研究支持 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申 购 策 略 ⚫ 基本面：业内知名的耐火材料小巨人。公司 2002 年成立，总部位于河北唐山，主要从事 高温工业用耐火材料整体解决方案，提供耐火材料整体承包服务及耐火材料产品。根据河 北省耐火材料行业统计分析报告（2024 年数据），公司在河北省 2,000 万以上产值规模 耐火材料企业中排名第一。区位优势显著，客户资源丰富。公司地处唐山，唐山是全国钢 铁产量第一大市，2024 年唐山粗钢产量达 1.20 亿吨、约占全国粗钢产量的 11.90%。在 钢铁行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its growth potential and market position [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in fine chemicals, focusing on domestic substitution and leveraging high-barrier core intermediates to drive growth across multiple segments, including nutrition, flavor and fragrance, new materials, and pharmaceuticals [4][18]. - The financial forecast shows significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 231.83 billion, 234.26 billion, and 244.78 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside an upward revision of net profit estimates [5][7]. - The company benefits from a solid profit base, particularly in the methionine segment, which is expected to see volume and price increases due to market dynamics and new project launches [6][18]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 21,610 million yuan in 2024 to 24,478 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 5,869 million yuan in 2024 to 8,058 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.91 yuan in 2024 to 2.62 yuan in 2027, indicating robust profitability [5][7]. Business Segments and Growth Drivers - The nutrition segment, particularly vitamins A and E, is expected to stabilize, while methionine demand is projected to grow at over 6%, supported by a strong cost advantage [6][8]. - The flavor and fragrance segment is anticipated to continue its steady growth, driven by the company's leading position and ongoing product expansion [6][8]. - The new materials segment is set to benefit from the integration of nylon projects, which are expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the market [6][8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong market presence through its diversified product offerings and strategic focus on high-barrier intermediates, which provide a competitive edge in the fine chemicals industry [4][18]. - The report highlights the company's ability to maintain profitability even in challenging market conditions, thanks to its cost advantages and strategic project developments [6][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The shipping market is expected to see significant growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong VLCC freight rates and structural changes in trade dynamics, including new refinery capacities and geopolitical shifts [4]. - The aviation sector is projected to enter a golden era, with passenger transport expected to reach 770 million in 2025, marking a 5.5% increase from 2024 and a 16.7% increase from 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a shift in the shipping industry from supply-driven to demand-driven dynamics, particularly in shipbuilding, as older vessels are replaced [4]. - The logistics and freight forwarding sectors are facing challenges due to trade tensions, impacting profit margins and demand [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Q4 2025 VLCC freight rates are expected to average around $95,500 per day, with a projected demand increase of 1.7% from new refinery capacities and a 2.1% increase from compliance changes in Venezuelan oil [4]. - The dry bulk market is also showing strong performance, with Cape-sized vessel rates expected to rise by 20% to $27,600 per day [4]. - The report estimates that COSCO Shipping Energy's Q4 earnings will be approximately 1.9 billion RMB, while China Merchants Energy's will be around 2.9 billion RMB [4]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with second-hand ship prices rising for 11 consecutive months, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Freight Forwarding - The freight forwarding sector is facing profit margin compression due to trade frictions, with the CCFI index expected to decline by 26% in Q4 2025 [4]. Aviation - The Chinese aviation market is expected to achieve a profit of 6.5 billion RMB in 2025, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines anticipated to see significant performance improvements [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of international routes as passenger volumes are expected to grow, driven by a recovery in outbound travel [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to see a 5% year-on-year growth in Q4, driven by price increases and seasonal demand, despite challenges from trade policies [4]. Road and Rail - The report notes a slowdown in highway traffic growth, while rail passenger and freight volumes continue to increase, with recommendations for specific companies in the sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on companies with strong supply-demand dynamics and pricing power, as well as those with technological cost-reduction capabilities [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of rising prices for memory, copper, aluminum, and key components, which are expected to lead to an upward trend in consumer vehicle prices. It suggests focusing on supply chain companies like Fuda, Bertley, Minshi, Top, and Jingu, as well as mid-to-high-end vehicle manufacturers such as Xiaopeng, NIO, Li Auto, BAIC, and Jianghuai [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential for profit recovery in the used car sector and improved profitability for dealers due to the industry's inflationary pricing cycle, recommending companies like Uxin [1][2]. - The report notes that the official implementation of new subsidies is expected to boost demand primarily in the mid-to-low-end market, with companies like BYD and Geely being highlighted for their performance potential [2]. Market Updates - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the last week of December reached 123,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2]. - The automotive industry index rose by 2.53% this week, while the overall market index (CSI 300) increased by 2.79%, indicating that the automotive sector's performance was below the broader market [12]. - The report indicates that 201 automotive stocks rose while 68 fell, with the largest gainers being Siling Co., Jingu Co., and Kaizhong Co., which saw increases of 30.5%, 26.3%, and 23.3%, respectively [18]. Key Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the 403rd batch of new car approvals, which includes notable models such as Xiaomi SU7, NIO ES9, and BYD's new models [3][4][5]. - The report discusses the rising costs of memory impacting the automotive industry, with NIO's founder highlighting that memory prices are becoming a significant cost pressure compared to traditional materials like lithium [6][7]. - A joint initiative by nine government departments aims to promote green consumption, with a focus on supporting the purchase of new energy vehicles and enhancing the automotive supply chain [10][11][26]. Financial Analysis - The automotive industry currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.20, ranking 18th among all primary industries, indicating a moderate valuation compared to the broader market [15]. - The report notes that there are no companies facing stock unlocks in the upcoming week, which may provide stability in the market [21]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong positions in AI and robotics, such as Desay SV, Jingwei Hirain, and Kobot, which are expected to benefit from the industry's technological advancements [1][2]. - It also suggests monitoring component manufacturers with solid earnings support and relatively low valuations, including Yinlun, Fuda, Shuanghuan, Jifeng, Minshi, Xingyu, and Ningbo Huaxiang [2].