英伟达 H20 出口管制升级：加速国产代替 NVIDIA H20 Export Control Upgrade: Accelerating Domestic Replacement 姚书桥 Barney Yao barney.sq.yao@htisec.com geng[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 16 Apr 2025 英伟达 NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA US) [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 4 月 15 日，英伟达 8-k 披露 (Link)，美国政府于 9 日告知， H20 芯片出口到中国需要许可证，此后又于 14 日告知， 这些规定将无限期实施。通知提及，这一新规将影响该公司共计约 55 亿美元的季度费用，涉及 H20 的库存、采购 承诺和相关储备。美国将 H20 纳入 "非民用超算风险清单"，意味着 AI 芯片管制从高端产品（如 A100、H100）延 伸至定制化中端产品。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, projecting significant growth in cloud business revenue and overall profits [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's cloud business is experiencing rapid growth, significantly boosting profits. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 522 million, 656 million, and 883 million RMB respectively, with EPS expected to be 0.46, 0.57, and 0.77 RMB [4][7]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 8.20 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decline of 1.1%. However, cloud services revenue is expected to grow by 38.1% to 2.76 billion RMB, while enterprise management software revenue is projected to increase by 3.7% to 2.56 billion RMB [8][9]. - The company is focusing on large enterprises and leveraging AI technology to enhance its product offerings, having enabled digital transformation for numerous central government-owned enterprises and top companies in China [9][10]. Financial Data and Forecast - Key financial metrics for the company include: - Revenue (in million RMB): 8,294 in 2023, projected to decline to 8,201 in 2024, then increase to 8,586 in 2025, 9,213 in 2026, and 10,291 in 2027 [3][6]. - Net profit (in million RMB): 1,918 in 2023, expected to rise to 2,208 in 2024, 2,447 in 2025, 2,718 in 2026, and 3,190 in 2027 [3][6]. - Gross profit margin is projected to improve from 26.9% in 2024 to 31.0% in 2027 [6]. - The company plans to continue returning value to shareholders with a proposed dividend of 0.08 HKD per share [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is deepening its presence in the large enterprise market and plans to release advanced AI-driven platforms in 2024, enhancing its competitive edge in the ERP sector [9][10]. - The introduction of foundation models is expected to improve the company's smart supply chain products, focusing on various industries such as pharmaceuticals and manufacturing [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating expected relative performance above the market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [5][9]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is projected to grow steadily, with estimates of 6.99 billion RMB for 2025, 7.93 billion RMB for 2026, and 9.16 billion RMB for 2027. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 0.09 billion RMB in 2025, 0.30 billion RMB in 2026, and 0.56 billion RMB in 2027 [5][9]. - The target price has been raised to 17.83 HKD, reflecting a dynamic price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 8.5x for 2025 [5][9]. - The company is experiencing stable performance with operating net cash flow growing significantly, projected at 0.93 billion RMB for 2024, an increase of 42.9% [5][9]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company's financial forecasts indicate a revenue of 6.26 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 10.2%. The net profit is projected to be -0.14 billion RMB, showing a 32.3% improvement [4][5]. - Cloud service revenue is expected to reach 5.11 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 81.6% of total revenue, with a cloud subscription annual recurring revenue (ARR) of 3.43 billion RMB, reflecting a 20% increase [5][9]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the company's cloud services, particularly the Kingdee Cloud Cangqiong and Xinghan, which achieved a combined revenue of 1.30 billion RMB in 2024, a 32.9% increase [5][9]. AI Integration and Product Development - The company is accelerating the integration of AI with its ERP systems, launching over 20 AI applications and signing contracts with nearly 20 large enterprises. This includes significant advancements in financial management and HR [5][9]. - The AI applications are expected to enhance customer transaction values, with over 7,500 small micro enterprises benefiting from AI-enabled products [5][9].

Investment Rating - Initiate with OUTPERFORM rating [1][2] Core Views - Meta Platforms is a global social media giant with over 3 billion monthly active users, transitioning towards the metaverse and generative AI, with a strong focus on advertising revenue [3][10] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by AI-enhanced advertising efficiency and a robust user base, despite facing competition from emerging platforms like TikTok [6][10] Company Overview - Meta Platforms, originally Facebook, has evolved from a campus social network to a leading social media entity, with core products including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Threads [9][10] - The company generates approximately 97% of its revenue from advertising, leveraging its vast user data for targeted ad placements [3][10] Application Family Business - The Family of Apps segment includes major platforms like Facebook and Instagram, collectively reaching over 3 billion users, with advertising revenue for 2024 projected at $160.6 billion, a 21.7% increase year-over-year [26][33] - Instagram's Reels feature has successfully attracted younger users, increasing daily usage time among the 18-29 age group [28][32] AI Strategy - Meta is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with capital expenditures expected to reach $60-65 billion in 2025, primarily for AI facilities and GPU procurement [5][59] - The company has developed generative AI tools that enhance advertising efficiency, with a reported 32% increase in ROI for advertisers [4][49] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY25-27 are $188.4 billion, $214.9 billion, and $244.4 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at $69.4 billion, $79.4 billion, and $90.3 billion [6][69] - The target price is set at $664.03 per share, based on a P/E ratio of 25x for FY2025 [6][69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 66.37 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company's core business demonstrates resilience, supported by AI capabilities and favorable policies, which are expected to drive growth [4][10]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 550 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be RMB 94 million, a growth of 11.09% [9][10]. - The introduction of the "Kuangming" AI model is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and accuracy across various business lines, contributing to a second growth curve for the company [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 456 million - 2024: RMB 550 million - 2025: RMB 736 million - 2026: RMB 921 million - 2027: RMB 1,106 million - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) is expected to grow from RMB 84 million in 2023 to RMB 213 million in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from RMB 0.84 to RMB 2.12 [3][4][5]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 66% in 2025 to 67% in 2027 [6]. Business Segmentation - Revenue from new energy power forecasting is expected to grow from RMB 309.47 million in 2024 to RMB 603.48 million in 2027, with a consistent gross margin of around 69% [6]. - The smart grid control systems segment is projected to see revenue growth from RMB 123.95 million in 2024 to RMB 250.99 million in 2027, maintaining a gross margin of 55% [6]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its virtual power plant operations, leveraging AI technology to enhance its service offerings and market position [10][11].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 浩辰软件（688657）公司年报点评 2025 年 04 月 12 日 创新驱动云化转型，全球深化布局 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 投资建议：维持增持评级，目标价上调至 52.42 元（+8.99 元）。随着 公司持续完善产品谱系及布局信创市场，公司有望提升产品竞争力和市 场份额，同时通过多模式盈利策略和本土化服务优势，进一步巩固和扩 大国内外市场。预计公司 2025-2027 年（新增 2027）EPS 预测分别为 1.15(+0.27) /1.36(+0.21)/1.58 元。给予公司 2025 年 45.5 倍 PE，目标价 52.42 元，维持"优于大市"评级。 2024 年公司业绩稳中有增，符合市场预期。2024 年公司实现营业收入 2.89 亿元，同比增长 3.93%；公司 CAD 软件业务境内市场收入受下游行 业周期性波动影响略有下滑，中小客户需求增速放缓，整体收入同比小 幅下降。CAD 云化业务和互联网广告推广业务得益于 CAD 看图王产品的 推广，收入均有较大增长，成为公司业绩增长的主要驱动因素。2024 年 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务/信息科技服务 证券研究报告 巩固存量，聚焦 AI 赋能集团 主要财务数据及预测 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | [Table_FinanceIn 财务摘要（百万元）fo] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1,984 | 1,769 | 1,944 | 2,192 | 2,519 | | (+/-)% | -13.0% | -10.8% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 14.9% | | 净利润（归母） | -206 | -415 | 80 | 140 | 203 | | (+/-)% | -239.1% | -101.8% | 119.2% | 75.5% | 44.9% | | 每股净收益（元） | -0.24 | -0.48 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.24 | | 净资产收益率(%) | -5.2% | -11.8% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | | 市盈率(现价& ...

Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating with a target price of RMB 47.06 [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The company has demonstrated resilience against tariff impacts by securing significant orders in the U.S., thereby expanding its North American presence [4][6] - The industry is experiencing consolidation, which is expected to enhance market opportunities for the company [4][6] - The partnership with LAZ Parking aims to build a large-scale charging network to meet the growing demand for NEV charging in North America [7][8] - The North American commercial parking market presents vast growth potential, with an estimated demand for nearly 1.8 million charging poles and a market size of RMB 60 billion [8] - The company has effectively managed tariff challenges by implementing a price increase of 7%-10% on U.S. digital energy products, which has not hindered order acquisition [9] Financial Data and Forecasts - Projected revenue growth from RMB 3,251 million in 2023 to RMB 7,251 million by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 21.5% [3] - Net profit (attributable to the parent) is expected to increase from RMB 179 million in 2023 to RMB 1,131 million in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 75.7% in 2024 [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasted to rise from RMB 0.40 in 2023 to RMB 2.50 in 2027 [3] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 5.6% in 2023 to 24.3% in 2027 [3]

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/计算机 证券研究报告 行业跟踪报告 中国科技破浪崛起 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 持续看好科技产业。中国科技产业的未来是星辰大海，形成"基础研究-产业 转化-全球竞争"的完整闭环。我国坚持自主创新与开放合作双轮驱动，中欧 班列串联创新走廊，"数字丝绸之路"助力共建国家共享数字经济红利，我国 也已实现从技术输出到标准制定的跃迁。成熟的国家创新范式、庞大的人才 规模支撑以及超大规模的市场，终将托举中国科技走向星辰大海的新征程。 2024 年 10 月习近平总书记在安徽考察时指出，"推进中国式现代化，科技 要打头阵"。党的十八大以来，以习近平同志为核心的党中央高度重视科技 现代化，党的二十大提出到 2035 年实现高水平科技自立自强的战略目标。 国家的高度重视和支持带来中国科技的破浪崛起，逐步实现从科技自立自强 到科技自信。 中国科技体系化创新成果斐然，重塑全球竞争格局。从量子通信的突破到人 工智能的领先，科技不仅推动着生产力的巨大进步，更深刻地影响着国家间 的竞争格局。根据中国政府网援引世界知识产权组织数据，我国是 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/计算机 证券研究报告 行业跟踪报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 计算机周观点第 1 期：虚拟电厂加速发展， 关税对计算机公司影响相对可控 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 投资建议：我们认为，两部门出台的利好政策，划定了虚拟电厂发展的时间 线，未来虚拟电厂行业发展有望持续加速。而中国电子的表态更是凸显目前 国央企对资本市场的积极态度。芯片原产地认定新规则是国家根据中国电子 产品行销全球的现实需要做出的灵活处理，也暗含对美国半导体产业的反 制。此外，经过我们测算，美国关税政策带来全球产业链分工不确定性，计 算机板块境外收入受影响相对可控，在科技安全大背景下，信息技术板块有 望持续受益。继续看好行业相关投资机会，关注标的：华大九天、达梦数据、 金山办公、新大陆、通行宝、赛意信息、鸿泉物联、润泽科技。 两部门发文推进虚拟电厂发展。近期，为落实《加快构建新型电力系统行动 方案（2024—2027 年）》，国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发了《关于加快推 进虚拟电厂发展的指导意见》。制定《意见》是加快推进新型电力系统建设 ...