Market Performance - Global equity markets experienced a broad rally, with MSCI Global up by 1.9%, MSCI Developed Markets also up by 1.9%, and MSCI Emerging Markets rising by 2.2% [4][8] - Among developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 5.1%, while the Australian S&P 200 had the weakest performance with a gain of only 0.3% [8] - In emerging markets, the ChiNext Index performed best with an increase of 8.0%, while the Mexican MXX Index was the worst performer, declining by 1.0% [8] Trading Sentiment - Overall trading volume decreased across global markets, with the VIX index showing a rapid decline [19] - In terms of investor sentiment, the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks decreased to 15.8%, indicating a historical low sentiment level, while the North American sentiment index rose to 90.4%, reflecting a high sentiment level [19][26] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for the US tech sector were revised upward during the earnings season, with the S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 adjusted from 268 to 269 [63] - The Hong Kong market also saw an upward revision in earnings expectations, with the Hang Seng Index's EPS forecast for 2025 increased from 2059 to 2061 [63] - In contrast, the European market's earnings expectations remained flat, with the STOXX50 Index's EPS forecast for 2025 unchanged at 332 [64] Economic Outlook - Major market economic sentiment indicators showed improvement, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US, Europe, and China all rising [4][63] - The rise in these indices was attributed to factors such as the potential end of the US government shutdown, easing inflation expectations, and improved US-China negotiations [4] Fund Flows - The market is increasingly pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, with expectations confirmed by recent economic data [46][50] - In terms of liquidity, there was a notable inflow of funds into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with a total inflow of 210 billion USD into these markets in September [55][58]

Market Performance - Southeast Asia ETF rose by 4.74%, with Indonesia outperforming by 0.98 percentage points[2] - Vietnam was the only market to decline, with a drop of 2.62% in the Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF, underperforming by 7.36 percentage points[3] - The Southeast Asia ETF underperformed China but outperformed the U.S., Japan, India, Africa, the U.K., and Latin America[2] Country-Specific Insights - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF increased by 5.72%, supported by resilient fundamentals and a shift towards proactive economic stimulus[3] - iShares MSCI Singapore ETF rose slightly by 0.11%, underperforming by 4.63 percentage points, with plans for new measures to support listed companies[3] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF gained 4.84%, bolstered by government policy initiatives and a THB 1.56 trillion investment budget for FY2026[3] - iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF increased by 1.42%, while the market experienced slight fluctuations due to local investment announcements from Microsoft and Google[3] - The sharp correction in Vietnam's stock market was attributed to bond market risks and profit-taking pressures[3] Trading Volume and Liquidity - Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF had a trading volume of 276,000 shares, reflecting a 3.1% increase[16] - iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF saw a trading volume of 9.36 million shares, up by 22.2%[17] - iShares MSCI Thailand ETF's trading volume decreased by 17.8%, indicating a decline in market activity[16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the return of its relevant broad market benchmark [20]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight year-on-year decline in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, with total operating revenue of RMB 4.50 billion, down 5.4% year-on-year, and a significant drop in net profit attributable to owners, which fell by 73.2% to RMB 170 million [2][8]. - The gross profit margin for the first nine months was 21.9%, contracting by 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, but the gross margin for 3Q25 showed a sequential improvement to 24.5% [2][9]. - The company has set a clear revenue growth target of 10%-15% for the new fiscal year, with specific growth targets for sunflower seeds and nuts [4][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of RMB 4.50 billion, a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to owners of RMB 170 million, down 73.2% year-on-year [2][8]. - The gross profit margin for the first nine months was 21.9%, down 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for 3Q25 was 24.5%, showing a sequential increase [2][9]. - The effective tax rate for the first nine months was 26.6%, up from 21.2% in the prior year period [2][8]. Revenue Structure and Product Performance - In 3Q25, the revenue from the sunflower seed business declined due to proactive control of sales, while the nut business grew by approximately 10%-20%, benefiting from strong performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival [3][9]. - The management indicated that the gross margin for nuts decreased by over 10 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising prices of key raw materials [3][9]. Raw Material Costs and Future Outlook - Procurement prices for sunflower seeds have decreased compared to the same period in 2024, which is expected to benefit gross margins in 4Q25 and FY2026 [4][10]. - The company plans to enhance long-term control over core raw materials by expanding contract farming [10]. New Fiscal Year Plan - The company aims for sales revenue growth of 10%-15% for the period from July 2025 to June 2026, with specific targets for sunflower seeds and nuts [4][11]. - New product initiatives include a focus on konjac, with a target scale of RMB 50-100 million [4][11]. Channel Development - The traditional Key Account (KA) channel's contribution to sales has decreased from 40% to 35%, while the Snack Discount channel has seen rapid growth [5][12]. - Membership stores have performed well, with significant sales growth in the Hema channel [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a full-year guidance for Topsports International Holdings, targeting a net profit amount roughly flat year-on-year alongside an improvement in net profit margin [4][10]. Core Insights - In 1H FY2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of RMB 12.30 billion, a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to owners at RMB 790 million, down 9.7% YoY [2][8]. - The gross profit margin for 1H FY2025 was 41.0%, slightly contracting by 0.1 percentage point YoY but expanding by 2.5 percentage points compared to 2H FY2024, exceeding market expectations due to brand partner subsidies [2][8]. - The company reported a significant decline in operating cash flow, down 48.2% YoY to RMB 1.35 billion, attributed to increased cash payments to suppliers and slower customer collections [3][9]. - Management indicated stable operational performance early in Q3 FY2025, with sales trends consistent with Q2, and maintained the FY2025 guidance focusing on profit-oriented strategies [4][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Total operating revenue for 1H FY2025 was RMB 12.30 billion, with retail business revenue down 3% and wholesale business revenue down 10.3% YoY [2][8]. - The effective tax rate for 1H FY2025 was 20.0%, up from 17.6% in the same period last year [2][8]. - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.13 per share, with a payout ratio of 102%, slightly higher than the previous year [3][9]. Operational Trends - The total number of directly operated stores decreased by 19.4% YoY to 4,688, but the sales area per store increased by 6.5% [5][11]. - The company has built a digital matrix with over 800 Douyin accounts and over 3,600 mini-program stores, driving double-digit growth in online retail sales [5][11]. - Membership base grew to 89 million, with member sales accounting for 92.9% of total sales, indicating strong user loyalty [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1][5][14]. Core Insights - The company reported stable sequential growth in Q3 2025, with revenue of 1.56 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 113.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.30 billion RMB, up 727.74% year-on-year [5][15]. - The report highlights that the company's product restructuring has led to seasonal fluctuations, with Q3 gross profit margin at 29.73%, down approximately 6.3 percentage points due to a higher revenue share from MPO products [5][15]. - The industry demand for optical modules is expected to continue growing, and the company is well-positioned as a key supplier of core materials [5][16]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 755 million RMB in 2023 to 4.094 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.4% from 2024 to 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from -48 million RMB in 2023 to 1.047 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) rising from -0.10 RMB to 2.28 RMB over the same period [4][5]. - The report sets a target price of 75.2 RMB based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 42.24x, considering the company's position and industry average valuations [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Prada Group, indicating a potential for steady profit growth and resilience in its brand portfolio [5][12]. Core Insights - Prada Group reported a revenue of €4.07 billion for the first nine months of FY25, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of positive growth [1][8]. - The acquisition of Versace for an enterprise value of €1.25 billion is expected to open new growth avenues for the group [1][4]. Revenue Performance - For the first nine months of FY25, Prada brand revenue declined by 2% year-on-year, with a 1% decline in 3Q25, showing significant improvement driven by the recovery in core leather goods and ready-to-wear categories [2][9]. - Miu Miu brand revenue surged by 41% year-on-year in 9M25 and 29% in 3Q25, maintaining strong growth despite a high comparison base from the previous year [2][9]. Regional Performance - Asia-Pacific revenue increased by 10% year-on-year, with notable recovery in mainland China, while the Americas saw a 15% increase, accelerating to 20% in 3Q25 [3][10]. - Europe experienced a 6% growth, supported by stable local demand, while the Middle East recorded a 21% increase [3][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The group is focused on optimizing its retail network, enhancing customer experience, and maintaining a strong product lineup, including high-end offerings [4][11]. - The acquisition of Versace is part of a broader multi-brand strategy aimed at expanding scale and profitability over the long term [4][11]. Future Outlook - Management expresses a cautious yet optimistic view, anticipating steady profit growth supported by a premium product mix and retail efficiency gains [5][12]. - The dual-brand strategy of Prada and Miu Miu, along with the integration potential of Versace, is expected to drive growth exceeding industry averages [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, projecting a target price of 108.78 RMB based on a 2025 PE of 80x [3][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong business performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 10.68 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.50%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 680 million RMB, up 65.26% [3][8]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 4.03 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.93%, although it experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.00% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 228 million RMB, down 11.49% year-on-year and 33.79% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit after non-recurring items was 223 million RMB, a decrease of 9.50% year-on-year and 34.07% quarter-on-quarter [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.66 billion RMB, 17.86 billion RMB, and 21.27 billion RMB, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 1.08 billion RMB, 1.59 billion RMB, and 2.13 billion RMB [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected at 1.36 RMB, 2.00 RMB, and 2.67 RMB [3][8]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 35.56%, showing an increase of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year and 5.02 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][8]. Business Development - The company benefits from the rapid development of data communication switches, and a new equity incentive plan was introduced in September 2025, aiming for cumulative growth rates of no less than 25%, 38%, and 46% for 2025-2027 [3][10]. - The increase in payroll payable in Q3, which rose by 281 million RMB to 353 million RMB, was primarily due to performance wage provisions for 2025, leading to a significant increase in expenses [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 62.9 Hong Kong Dollars, reflecting a -24% potential downside from the current price [8][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see net profit attributable to shareholders grow from 0.89 billion Euros in 2025 to 1.05 billion Euros in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 8.7%, and 7.6% respectively [8][9]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.33 billion Euros, a 9% increase year-on-year, with Miu Miu showing a 29% growth despite a high base from the previous year [9][10]. - The North American market is leading growth with a 20% increase, driven primarily by Prada, while the Greater China market showed slightly better-than-expected holiday performance [9][10]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for the company is expected to increase from 5.43 billion Euros in 2024 to 6.72 billion Euros in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.8% [2][5]. - Gross profit is forecasted to rise from 4.34 billion Euros in 2024 to 5.39 billion Euros in 2027, maintaining a gross margin of around 80% [2][5]. - The company's net profit is projected to grow from 0.84 billion Euros in 2025 to 1.05 billion Euros in 2027, with a net profit margin of approximately 15.5% [2][5]. Brand Performance - Miu Miu's revenue growth is attributed to high-quality growth and significant same-store sales contributions, with plans for further store expansion [10]. - Prada's leather goods are showing improved performance, and the brand is focusing on enhancing creativity and marketing for iconic products [10]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth by region in Q3 2025 was as follows: Asia Pacific +10%, Europe +2%, North America +20%, Japan -1%, and Middle East +10% [9][10]. - The North American market's growth is notable given the high base from the previous year, indicating strong brand performance despite challenging conditions [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI growth and highlights key companies to focus on: ZhongJi InnoLight, Eoptolink Technology, Yuanjie Technology, ZTE, Hui Lyu Ecological Technology Groups Co., Ltd., Shenzhen JPT Opto-Electronics, Ruijie Networks, Aojie Technology, and Unisplendour [1][31]. Core Insights - The demand for optical modules is expected to increase significantly, with a forecast of 20 million units for 1.6T optical modules by 2026 [15][39]. - The communication industry is seen as the foundation of the digital economy, encompassing various sectors such as AI ecosystems, satellite internet, data elements, AIoT, internet of vehicles, and industrial internet [31][39]. - OpenAI's release of the AI browser ChatGPT Atlas is viewed as a significant development in redefining internet usage [6][38]. - Anthropic's agreement with Google Cloud for up to one million TPUs, valued at several billion dollars, indicates strong growth potential in AI infrastructure [10][39]. - The acquisition of a 94% stake in Wuhan Ruijing by Dugen Core is expected to enhance technical synergy in the optoelectronics field [12][39]. Summary by Sections Optical Module Demand - The report revises the demand forecast for 1.6T optical modules upwards, predicting a demand of over 20 million units by 2026, with a significant supply gap anticipated for high-speed optical modules [15][39]. AI and Communication - The report emphasizes the acceleration of AI-related investments and innovations, particularly in GPU capabilities and communication networks, which are crucial for enhancing AI efficiency [31][32]. Company Performance - The report includes a simulated investment portfolio for the communication sector, showing a strong performance with an average increase of 14.95% for selected stocks during the specified period [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for Hermès, indicating an "Outperform" rating for the stock over the next 12-18 months [20]. Core Insights - Hermès reported Q3 FY25 revenue of €3.9 billion, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth at constant exchange rates, with a cumulative revenue of €11.9 billion for the first nine months, up 9% at constant rates [8][12]. - The company continues to show resilience in a high base environment, with strong performance across various regions and product categories [5][12]. Regional Performance - The Asian market (excluding Japan) grew by 4% year-on-year, with significant improvements in Greater China due to brand loyalty and optimized store networks [2][9]. - Japan's market saw a remarkable 15% growth, primarily driven by local customer repurchases [2][9]. - The Americas experienced a 13% increase, supported by new store openings in the U.S. [2][9]. - Europe also performed well, with a 12% growth excluding France and 9% growth in France [2][9]. - The Middle East and other regions maintained a high growth trend of 15% [2][9]. Product Category Performance - Hermès's core leather goods and saddlery segment grew by 13% year-on-year, driven by popular product lines [3][10]. - The perfume and beauty segment declined by 5% due to a high base effect from the previous year [3][10]. - The watchmaking division maintained solid momentum, with plans for capacity expansion [3][10]. - Jewelry and homeware continued to show strong growth, increasing by 11% year-on-year [3][10]. Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic for Q4, noting positive trends in early October and strong sales during the Golden Week holiday [5][12]. - The company plans to open 3-4 new stores annually over the next two years while renovating around 15 existing stores [5][12]. - Operating margin is expected to remain around 40%, with capital expenditures increasing to support growth initiatives [5][12]. - The brand's strong customer loyalty and disciplined channel management are expected to support medium- to long-term growth [5][12].