新 股 研 究 新股精要—境内半导体探针卡生产商龙头 强一股份 ——IPO 专题 本报告导读： 强一股份（688809.SH）是境内半导体探针卡龙头生产商，打破境外厂商在 MEMS 探针卡市场的垄断，有望受益于探针卡市场规模扩容及国产替代进程加速。2024 年公司实现营收/归母净利润 6.41/2.33 亿元。截至 12 月 12 日，所在行业"C39 计 算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业"近一个月静态市盈率平均值为 57.95 倍，可比 公司均为境外上市企业，申万三级行业半导体材料的公司 PE（TTM）中位数为 61.59 倍，2025 年和 2026 年预测 PE中位数分别为 66.42 倍和 61.34 倍。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 新股精要—国内领先的排水管网维护综合服务商 誉帆科技 2025.12.12 新股精要—超导磁体独立供应商龙头健信超导 2025.12.09 新股精要—国内计量校准领域领军企业天溯计量 2025.12.08 IPO 月度数据一览（2025 年 11 月） 2025.12.03 新股精要—国内光通信电芯片龙头企业优讯股份 2025.12.02 请务必阅读正文之后的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The second-hand ship prices continue to rise, while new ship prices remain under pressure. The global new ship price index in November is 184.33 points, a year-on-year decrease of 2.56% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.29%. In contrast, the second-hand ship price index is 189.90 points, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.12% and a month-on-month increase of 0.88% [6] - The demand structure in the industry is diversifying, with leading shipbuilding companies signing large new ship orders. Energy-saving technologies, such as the cylindrical sail, are being implemented and recognized by classification societies, accelerating the progress of green shipbuilding and retrofitting [3][6] Summary by Sections Monthly Tracking - The second-hand ship prices are on an upward trend, while new ship prices are under pressure. The new ship price index has seen a slight recovery in certain categories, while the overall demand for new orders has decreased significantly [6] Investment Highlights - A new shipbuilding project cooperation agreement was signed between China Shipbuilding Group and China COSCO Shipping Group, involving 87 vessels with a contract value of approximately 50 billion RMB [6] - The first domestically produced large mobile cylindrical sail has been delivered, expected to reduce fuel consumption by about 10% and cut carbon dioxide emissions by over 1,500 tons annually [6] - The first retrofit project for a cylindrical sail has been successfully completed, marking an entry into the high-end retrofitting market for green ships [6]

Asset Overview - Global risk appetite has significantly cooled, with precious metals leading the gains. During the week of December 8-12, global equity markets turned to decline, although some emerging markets performed relatively well. The correlation between A-shares and government bonds has returned to a negative degree of 0.5 [1][8]. Investment Highlights Cross-Asset Analysis - The overall risk appetite has decreased globally, with precious metals showing strong performance while industrial metals and oil prices have seen significant pullbacks. The US dollar index continues its downward trend, and the Chinese yuan has slightly strengthened, leading to a general recovery in the domestic bond market [8][12]. Equity Markets - Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, with the ChiNext Index leading gains. The MSCI Global Index turned to a decline of 0.2%, with a notable performance divergence where emerging markets outperformed developed and frontier markets, and Europe outperformed Asia and North America. A-shares saw a slight increase, with the Wande All A Index rising by 0.3%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.7% [20][23]. Bond Markets - The domestic bond market exhibited a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward overall. The 10Y-3M yield spread has marginally widened, indicating a "bull steep" characteristic. The 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.12%, while the 3-month AAA-rated note yield increased by 5.1 basis points to 0.3% [34][35]. Commodity and Currency Analysis - Commodity prices have generally declined, with precious metals leading the gains. As of December 12, the S&P GSCI and CRB commodity indices fell by 1.2% and 2.5%, respectively. Year-to-date, only four commodities have recorded gains, with gold and silver increasing by 63.9% and 112%, respectively. COMEX gold inventory has decreased for 10 consecutive weeks, while copper inventory has risen for 40 weeks [53][54]. The US dollar index fell by 0.6%, with the euro and pound appreciating against the dollar [53].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the heavy-duty truck industry driven by domestic demand through vehicle replacement and the continued export opportunities, particularly in emerging markets [1][6][20]. Group 1: Market Overview - The heavy-duty truck market has seen a consistent decline in supply growth compared to demand over the past three years, indicating a tightening market [6][8]. - Domestic road freight turnover has remained relatively stable in recent years, with a notable decrease in heavy-duty truck ownership and capacity growth lagging behind demand growth [8][9]. Group 2: Pricing and Profitability - The logistics sector shows a stable demand for heavy-duty trucks, supported by a robust freight rate index, which indicates ongoing replacement demand for logistics-related heavy-duty trucks [9][10]. - The report highlights the relationship between freight rates, fuel costs, and transportation profits, suggesting that profitability remains viable despite fluctuations in operational costs [10]. Group 3: Sales and Production Forecast - Heavy-duty truck sales are projected to recover, with natural gas heavy-duty trucks expected to grow from approximately 200,000 units in 2025, supported by lower LNG/diesel price ratios [19][17]. - The report estimates that the export market for heavy-duty trucks could reach around 900,000 units annually, with significant growth potential in non-Western markets [20][25]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the current global heavy-duty truck market remains stable outside of North America, Europe, Australia, and China, with China’s heavy-duty truck exports still having room for growth [20][21]. - The report identifies a competitive advantage for Chinese heavy-duty trucks in terms of cost, particularly in regions outside of Russia, where sales have decreased due to tax reasons [27][25].

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Insights - The coal sector has confirmed a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with supply-demand dynamics showing a reversal point and downward risks fully released [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of winter demand in determining future coal prices, especially if temperatures drop unexpectedly in December and January, potentially increasing residential electricity demand and coal consumption by power plants [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the U.S. power system, particularly the "impossible trinity" of decarbonization goals, grid reliability, and the cost-speed requirements of AI data centers, suggesting that the U.S. may need to abandon its decarbonization targets to meet these demands [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend core dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, along with Yanzhou Coal and Jinneng Holding [4]. Coal Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 763 RMB/ton, down 38 RMB/ton (-4.7%) from the previous week [7]. - Domestic coal prices have entered a rational decline phase since November, with a focus on whether winter demand can exceed expectations [4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic supply remains stable, with imports continuing to decrease; total supply is expected to maintain a stable decline throughout the year [4]. - The report notes that the average price of metallurgical coke at major domestic ports has decreased, with the price of primary metallurgical coke at 1686 RMB/ton, down 55 RMB/ton (-3.2%) [58]. Inventory Levels - As of December 12, 2025, Qinhuangdao's coal inventory has increased by 48,000 tons (7.0%), with total inventory at major northern ports rising by 201,200 tons (5.8%) [22]. - The report indicates that the total inventory of coking coal at three major ports is 3.01 million tons, up 11,000 tons (3.8%) from the previous week [57]. Market Tracking - The report tracks coal price declines across various ports, with significant drops noted at Huanghua, Jiangsu, and Ningbo ports [7][9]. - The report also highlights that the average price of Australian coking coal has increased by 3 USD/ton (1.4%), while domestic coking coal remains cheaper than imported options [46].

Semiconductor Sector Dynamics - AMD officially released the EPYC Embedded 2005 series processors, which can support up to 16 x86 cores and 64MB of shared L3 cache, with a TDP range of 45W to 75W, offering a 28% higher boost frequency and 35% higher base frequency compared to Intel Xeon 6503P-B2 at half the TDP[6] - DapuStor and ZTE are collaborating to build a green and efficient data center using immersion liquid cooling SSDs, marking a significant engineering application breakthrough in enterprise SSDs[8] - ASE Technology has integrated vacuum printing encapsulation and copper pillar transfer technology, significantly reducing product development time by up to 90% and cutting development costs by approximately 30%[10] Automotive Electronics Sector Dynamics - BAIC Group is partnering with Horizon Robotics to develop a full-scene urban NOA system, leveraging the Horizon Journey 6M chip to enhance computational capabilities for smart driving[12] - Innosilicon and United Power announced the successful installation of a new generation 6.6kW OBC system in Changan Automobile, achieving a 30% increase in power density and over 2% improvement in overall efficiency compared to similar products[14] - Ruijia received a development notification from a well-known flying car company, marking a significant milestone in expanding into the low-altitude economy[17] AI Sector Dynamics - OpenAI launched GPT-5.2, which outperformed previous models in professional knowledge tasks, achieving a 70.9% success rate in GDPval tests across 44 job tasks[19] - SenseTime introduced the upgraded "SenseTime Ark" platform, aiming to revolutionize visual AI production methods and enhance algorithm efficiency[22] - Zhiyuan officially launched and open-sourced the GLM-4.6V series multimodal models, reducing prices by 50% compared to the previous version, with API call costs as low as 1 RMB per million tokens[26] Metaverse Sector Dynamics - Cellid released two new AR glasses reference designs, targeting various applications from enterprise digital transformation to everyday consumer use[28] - Beijing Jishuitan Hospital successfully performed China's first "spatial computing + robotics" orthopedic surgery, marking a significant advancement in smart orthopedic technology[30] - Yunglight Technology completed a Series A financing round to accelerate the mass production of AR/VR technologies, with plans for a new 12-inch silicon-based OLED production line[34] Risk Warnings - There are risks of intensified market competition in semiconductor, automotive electronics, AI, and metaverse sectors due to rapid growth in participant numbers and capital investment[38] - Potential risks exist if technological advancements in these sectors do not meet expectations, which could hinder overall development[39] - Market demand growth may fall short of expectations in emerging sectors, impacting overall industry progress[40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side adjustments are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][4]. - The report highlights that despite a long period of industry losses, market-driven supply adjustments have begun, and if supply policies are implemented, the pace of supply contraction may accelerate [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel - Steel prices and total inventory have decreased week-on-week. The average consumption of five major steel products was 8.397 million tons, down 2.83% week-on-week and 4.76% year-on-year [5][12]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.062 million tons, a decrease of 227,000 tons week-on-week. Total inventory stood at 13.32 million tons, down 33.5% week-on-week [5][29]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points from the previous week [5][19]. - The average gross profit for rebar was 169.8 CNY/ton, up 22.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil had a simulated average gross profit of -30.2 CNY/ton, down 17.8 CNY/ton [5][31]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price of PB powder (61.5% iron content) dropping 10 CNY/ton to 779 CNY/ton, a decline of 1% [40]. - The port inventory of iron ore rose to 154.31 million tons, an increase of 0.85% week-on-week [43]. Macro - The crude steel output from January to October 2025 saw a year-on-year decline, with the construction and manufacturing sectors remaining weak [5][5]. - The report notes that the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand has significantly weakened, with expectations for stable growth in demand from infrastructure and manufacturing [5][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their competitive advantages and market positioning, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and CITIC Special Steel [5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction engineering industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize investment and implement major projects to support economic growth [3][4] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) urges central enterprises to actively promote the implementation of significant projects to ensure stable supply and prices of essential products [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance highlights the importance of government investment in driving economic recovery and encourages the issuance of long-term special bonds to support major construction projects [6] Summary by Sections Recent Key Reports - The report discusses the need for high-demand, high-barrier, and high-profit leading companies in the construction sector, recommending sectors such as AI, controlled nuclear fusion, and low-altitude economy [11][13] - It notes that the construction industry has seen a decline in net profit, with a 10% year-on-year decrease in the first three quarters [15][16] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include China State Construction (dividend yield 5.25%), China Railway (dividend yield 4.80%), and China Communications Construction (dividend yield 1.92%) [9][29] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and stable growth, particularly in the context of debt reduction and anti-competitive policies [12][29] Macro/Meso/Micro Data - The report indicates a projected increase in broad infrastructure funding by 7.3% in 2025, driven by government bonds and domestic loans [32][34] - It highlights the importance of private capital participation in infrastructure projects to enhance funding and project execution [28]

防风险基调延续下的息差策略 [Table_Authors] 王宇辰(分析师) 信用债市场周度回顾 251214 本报告导读： 中央经济工作会议指出，"坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险"。防风险基 调下，继续关注信用债短久期票息策略。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.14 | | 010-83939801 | | --- | --- | | | wangyuchen4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523020004 | | | 张紫睿(分析师) | | | 021-23185652 | | | zhangzirui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040068 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 高速板块领跌，指数至阶段新低 2025.12.14 理解重要会议后的债市波动：三个层次的分析 2025.12.14 银行二永债周度数据库更新（2025.12.8-12.12） 2025.12.14 转债估值及常规因子表现数据库（251208- 251212） 2025.12.13 超长债上行期：保险买入未放量 2025.12. ...

Financing Overview - A total of 99 financing events occurred in the tech industry from December 6 to December 12, 2025, with 81 events in China and 18 abroad[9] - The leading sectors in domestic financing were advanced manufacturing (44 events), artificial intelligence (23 events), and automotive transportation (5 events)[9] IPO and Prospectus Submissions - Wisdom Tree was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 8, 2025[12] - Fast Innovation submitted a prospectus for a proposed listing on the Hong Kong main board[14] - National Instrument Quantum and Precision Laser submitted prospectuses for listings on the Shanghai STAR Market[16][19] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% to 3889 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84% to 13258 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74% to 3194 points[21] - The semiconductor index rose by 2.84%, automotive electronics by 1.82%, artificial intelligence by 0.45%, and the metaverse index by 1.58%[21] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratios for the semiconductor, automotive electronics, artificial intelligence, and metaverse indices were 130.50, 37.94, 72.67, and 51.63, respectively, reflecting week-on-week increases of 2.5%, 1.5%, 0.8%, and 1.7%[25] - The PB ratios for the same indices were 6.34, 3.87, 7.51, and 5.56, with week-on-week increases of 2.5%, 1.4%, 0.9%, and 1.7%[27] Risk Factors - Market competition risk exists due to rapid growth in key sectors like semiconductors and AI, potentially intensifying competition[28] - Risks related to technological advancements not meeting expectations could hinder sector growth[29] - Market demand growth may fall short of expectations, impacting overall sector development[30]