Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has led to a rise in both precious and base metal prices, with expectations of continued liquidity in the market [2][6] - Gold prices have shown a steady increase due to low inventory and favorable liquidity conditions, while silver prices have surged significantly [6][7] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to macroeconomic disturbances, despite a recent increase [9] - Aluminum prices are showing a strong trend supported by macroeconomic factors, although supply pressures persist [8] - Energy metals like lithium are experiencing strong demand, with inventory levels decreasing [10] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased: SHFE gold rose 1.40% to 970.66 CNY/gram, COMEX gold rose 2.05% to 4,329.80 USD/ounce [6][24] - Silver prices surged: SHFE silver increased 10.89% to 14,892 CNY/kg, COMEX silver rose 5.13% to 62.09 USD/ounce [7][24] - Central bank gold purchases continue, with China's reserves increasing to 7,412 million ounces [6] Copper - Copper prices fluctuated: SHFE copper rose 1.40% to 94,080 CNY/ton, while LME copper fell 0.91% to 11,515 USD/ton [9][21] - Supply remains tight, with copper processing fees decreasing [9] - Global visible copper inventory totaled 835,800 tons, showing a slight decrease [9][22] Aluminum - Aluminum prices showed a slight decline: SHFE aluminum fell 0.78% to 22,170 CNY/ton, LME aluminum decreased 1.00% to 2,868.5 USD/ton [8][21] - Processing rates for aluminum have dropped to 61.8% [8][90] - The industry is facing supply pressures, particularly in alumina [8] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate demand remains high, with inventory levels decreasing by 2,133 tons [10] - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to tight raw material supply, while companies are extending their reach into downstream markets [10] - Rare earth prices have shown mixed trends, with light rare earths stabilizing while heavy rare earths continue to decline [10]

Consumption - Overall commodity consumption is weak, with automotive sales declining and high-end liquor prices continuing to fall[1] - Seasonal recovery in textile and apparel demand is insufficient compared to the same period last year[1] - Service consumption shows stable population movement, with Shanghai's amusement consumption performing well in the off-season[1] Investment - Investment remains weak, with infrastructure construction slowing down and new home transactions marginally declining[1] - The area of new homes sold in 30 cities continues to decrease, with a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline[14] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions has increased to 65.94%[14] Production - Production is expected to improve mainly due to year-end rush work, with coal inventory at ports continuing seasonal replenishment[1] - The operating rate of asphalt has slightly decreased to 27.8%, remaining at historical lows[14] - The operating rate of carbonates has increased, but remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year[23] Trade - The number of ships departing from ports has shown seasonal recovery, with domestic and international freight rates continuing to diverge due to demand differences[1] - Export value has increased, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.3%[20] Prices - Industrial product prices have declined, with the PPI dropping by 0.97%[33] - CPI growth rate has decreased by 0.02 percentage points, with significant price increases in food and healthcare services[33] Liquidity - The US dollar index has fallen by 58 basis points to 98.4, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[36] - The central bank's net currency injection was 4.7 billion yuan in the week of December 13[36]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the overall impact of the recent Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference on the bond market is neutral, with short-term market dynamics expected to remain weak until after the New Year [7][29] - The monetary policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a moderately loose stance, with potential for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, while fiscal policy is likely to remain stable with limited incremental content [9][12][19] - The report highlights that the bond market's upward pressure on interest rates may be lower than that experienced in overseas markets during fiscal expansion periods, with a focus on domestic economic stability and gradual adjustments [20][25] Group 2 - The report notes that the bond market's response to the conference announcements was muted, as the market's buying power is weak at year-end, leading to insufficient momentum for significant bond purchases [27][29] - It is suggested that the bond market may experience fluctuations due to the lack of strong buying forces, with a recommendation to maintain a cautious trading strategy in the current environment [29] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the relationship between stock and bond markets, as well as localized inflation pressures, which could influence bond market dynamics in 2026 [25][29] Group 3 - The weekly review indicates a mixed performance in bond yields, with various maturities showing slight fluctuations, and a net issuance of bonds amounting to 12,959 billion yuan [30][32] - The report highlights the differentiation in yield spreads across various bond types, with most government bond spreads expanding, while credit spreads exhibited varied movements [42][43] - The analysis of market sentiment reveals that the bond market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, influenced by external economic factors and policy announcements [34][41]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The National Medical Security Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of optimizing centralized procurement policies in 2026, promoting the development of maternity insurance and long-term care insurance, and leveraging strategic purchasing to support the innovative drug industry [3] - The report highlights the importance of commercial health insurance in complementing basic medical insurance and encourages investment in innovative drug development [5] Summary by Sections National Medical Security Work Conference - The conference held on December 13, 2025, summarized the work during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and outlined the tasks for 2026, including support for commercial health insurance and the establishment of a multi-tiered medical security system [5] - The National Medical Security Bureau will promote the inclusion of flexible employment workers and migrant workers in maternity insurance coverage, aiming for "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth within policy limits [5] Support for Innovative Drug Development - The report discusses the strategic role of medical insurance in fostering healthy competition and differentiated innovation within the pharmaceutical industry [5] - It mentions the implementation of new rounds of national centralized procurement for drugs and high-value medical consumables, aiming to enhance the efficiency of company receivables [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The revenue performance of Taiwanese manufacturing companies in November showed divergence, with lululemon's Q3 performance exceeding expectations, particularly in the mainland China market, while the North American market remains under pressure. The CEO of lululemon will resign in January 2026, and it is expected that the proportion of new products for the spring season will reach 35% [2][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In November 2025, the revenue of Taiwanese manufacturers such as Yuanyuan, Fengtai, Yuchi, Zhiqiang, Laiyi, and Ruhong showed year-on-year changes of -2.4%, -11.8%, +6.6%, +3.1%, -5.8%, and +1.5% respectively. Cumulative revenue from January to November showed year-on-year changes of +0.9%, -4.9%, +21.2%, +14.7%, +6.2%, and +3.8% [5]. Company Performance - For lululemon's Q3 (ending November 2), revenue was $2.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $2.48 billion. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $310 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, also exceeding expectations [5]. - In terms of regional performance, Q3 revenue in the Americas, mainland China, and other regions showed year-on-year changes of -2%, +47%, and +19% respectively [5]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the performance of the export manufacturing sector is expected to recover in 2026 due to three main factors: the implementation of U.S. tariff policies, reduced burden of tariff costs shared with brands, and improved efficiency from optimized production line allocation [5]. - Recommended companies include Huayi Group, Jiuxing Holdings, Shenzhou International, and Chaoying International Holdings, with a focus on home textiles, luxury goods, and undervalued high-dividend companies [5].

可控核聚变行业招标显著加速，联创光电与中国能建签署 战略协议 [Table_Report] 相关报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 黄龙(分析师) | 021-38031028 | huanglong@gtht.com | S0880525070027 | 本报告导读： 股 票 研 究 上周（2025/12/8-2025/12/12）可控核聚变领域动态：上周采购需求主要集中在热疲 劳试验机和冷屏部件等；ITER 组织开源发布 IMAS 基础设施与物理模型；联创光 电与中国能建签署战略协议。 核电设备《国家能源局启动"人工智能"能源试 点，中法持续推进和平利用核能领域合作》 2025.12.06 核电设备《中国发布燃烧等离子体国际科学计 划，2025 年我国 ITER 合同金额已超 1.2 亿欧 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——可控核聚变行业周报 元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer sector [4]. Core Insights - Recent developments in the AI industry show significant progress in both specialization and terminalization, exemplified by OpenAI's breakthrough with the GPT-5.2 model and Zhipu AI's promotion of mobile AI [2][4]. - The U.S. has conditionally approved the export of Nvidia's H200 chips to China, but this comes with stringent restrictions that may impact supply chain stability [4]. - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing efficient deployment, highlighted by the successful high-frequency launches of the Long March 12 rocket and the establishment of the "Space Computing Joint Laboratory" [4]. Summary by Sections AI Technology Developments - AI technology has made notable advancements in specialization and terminalization, with OpenAI's GPT-5.2 achieving human expert-level performance in key benchmarks and Zhipu AI's Open-AutoGLM enabling mobile AI capabilities [2][4]. U.S.-China Technology Relations - The U.S. has conditionally relaxed export controls on AI chips to China, allowing Nvidia to sell its H200 chips, but with dual constraints including generational technology locks and a 25% sales commission to the U.S. Treasury [4]. Commercial Aerospace Progress - The Long March 12 rocket successfully launched 16 low-orbit satellites within 32 days, demonstrating high-efficiency deployment capabilities, while the "Space Computing Joint Laboratory" aims to enhance domestic autonomous capabilities [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks such as Hand Information, Sunlink Technology, Kingsoft Office, Hehe Information, Hikvision, Newland, Daotong Technology, and Haiguang Information, with a focus on their projected earnings and market performance [5].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in trading activity for key themes, particularly in commercial aerospace, energy independence, AI applications, and domestic consumption, driven by improved market risk appetite and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3][5]. Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 reusable rocket and the completion of ground tests for the Tianlong 3 rocket are significant milestones, with China's StarNet completing a network of 127 low-orbit satellites, accelerating its deployment [3][20][25]. - The National Space Administration's action plan for commercial aerospace emphasizes the development of new technologies and products, predicting a tenfold increase in satellite launch demand by 2030 compared to 2024 [3][20][25]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on rocket manufacturing, satellite communication, and new technologies such as reusable rockets [21][25]. Group 3: Energy Independence - The central government emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new energy system and expanding green electricity applications, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [5][22][35]. - The share of clean energy in total installed capacity has reached 60%, with 84% of new capacity in the first ten months of 2025 coming from clean sources [22][35][39]. - Investment directions include smart grids, new energy storage solutions, and nuclear fusion energy [22][35]. Group 4: AI Applications - The report notes significant growth in AI applications, with Alibaba's Qianwen app experiencing a 149.03% increase in monthly active users, leading globally [23][41]. - The government aims for over 70% penetration of new-generation intelligent terminals and systems by 2027, with a target of over 90% by 2030 [23][41]. - Investment opportunities are identified in internet applications across various sectors, including finance, gaming, and government services, as well as in data center power equipment [23][41]. Group 5: Domestic Consumption - The central government is focused on boosting domestic consumption through various initiatives, including enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [5][47]. - New consumption scenarios, such as sports events and winter tourism, are emerging, with the ice and snow sports market projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan in the 2024-2025 season, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [47][48]. - Investment recommendations include sectors benefiting from consumption promotion measures, such as tourism, hotels, and sports equipment [47][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Oriental Education, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the local market index [14][21]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a dual improvement in performance and valuation, driven by its strong brand influence in various training sectors such as culinary arts, pastry, information technology, and automotive services [2][14]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to grow by 10.2%, with a gross margin increase to 57.3%, reflecting effective business expansion and cost control [2][14]. - The company operates 234 schools and centers across mainland China and Hong Kong, with a steady increase in training participants [4][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 4,116 million RMB - 2025: 4,585 million RMB (up 11%) - 2026: 5,088 million RMB (up 11%) - 2027: 5,591 million RMB (up 10%) [5][12] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - 2024: 513 million RMB - 2025: 798 million RMB (up 56%) - 2026: 1,004 million RMB (up 26%) - 2027: 1,128 million RMB (up 12%) [5][12] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 0.24 RMB - 2025: 0.36 RMB - 2026: 0.45 RMB - 2027: 0.51 RMB [5][12]. Market Performance - The stock price has fluctuated between 2.43 and 9.05 HKD over the past 52 weeks, with a current market capitalization of 13,808 million HKD [8][12]. - The report suggests a target price of 9.0 RMB, equivalent to approximately 9.9 HKD, based on a 20X PE valuation for 2026 [14].

高速板块领跌，指数至阶段新低 [Table_Authors] 刘玉(分析师) REIT 策略周报 本报告导读： 过去一周 REIT 市场先下后上，REITs 全收益指数一度下行至 1020 点位后回升。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.14 | | 021-38038263 | | --- | --- | | | liuyu6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 转债估值及常规因子表现数据库（251208- 251212） 2025.12.13 超长债上行期：保险买入未放量 2025.12.09 12 月首周大行融出规模显著回升 2025.12.09 降息预期下，美债长端承压会持续多久 2025.12.09 破位还是触底？T、TL 合约分化 20251208 2025.12.08 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...