1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds were weak in the short - term and strong in the long - term. The 1 - 3Y maturity yields rose by about 0.5bp, while the 10Y and 30Y maturity yields fell by about 0.30bp and 2.05bp to 1.83% and 2.26% respectively. Treasury bond futures were weak in the short - term and strong in the medium - long - term. The TS main contract fell 0.01%, while the TF, T, and TL main contracts rose 0.01%, 0.39%, and 0.75% respectively. The DR007 weighted average rate fluctuated around 1.49%. [4] - In the domestic fundamental aspect, China's GDP in Q4 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the annual GDP growth rate reached 5.0%, achieving the expected growth target. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. December's financial data exceeded expectations, with the social financing growth rate continuing to decline, mainly dragged down by government bonds. Credit increased slightly less, the marginal improvement of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises, but the trend of household de - leveraging continued, and credit performance remained weak. In December, China's import and export scale reached a monthly high, with annual exports growing by 6.1% and the structure continuously optimized, among which high - tech product exports grew by 13.2%. [4] - A package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand was introduced. Overseas, concerns about the US labor market eased. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week fell to a recent low, leading to the disappointment of the Fed's rate - cut expectation in January. [4] - Overall, as some negative factors eased, the sentiment in the bond market improved. The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for financing cooled the equity market, and market risk appetite declined. In 2025, China's economy maintained a steady - and - progressive growth trend, with the economic structure characterized by "stronger external demand than domestic demand" and "stronger supply than demand", and structural contradictions still needed to be improved. With the stability of the RMB exchange rate and bank net interest margins, internal and external constraints weakened. The central bank stated that there was still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts within the year. However, under the weak market allocation demand, the supply pressure of long - term bonds continued to disrupt the bond market. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate strongly in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Main Contract Prices and Volumes**: The T main contract closed at 108.200, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 73,032, an increase of 11,164; the TF main contract closed at 105.880, up 0.01%, with a trading volume of 54,402, an increase of 5,171; the TS main contract closed at 102.430, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 25,032, a decrease of 4,787; the TL main contract closed at 112.250, up 0.75%, with a trading volume of 109,819, an increase of 1,260. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: For example, the TL2603 - 2606 spread was - 0.11, up 0.00; the T03 - TL03 spread was - 4.05, down 0.74. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The T main contract's open interest was 243,456, an increase of 1,698. The net short position of the top 20 in T increased by 2,574 to 2,219. Similar data were provided for TF, TS, and TL. [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Prices**: The net prices of some CTD bonds like 250018.IB (6y) were 100.5206, up 0.0248; 250025.IB (6y) was 99.0955, up 0.0485. [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds were 1.2000%, unchanged; 3 - year was 1.4150%, down 1.25bp; 5 - year was 1.5850%, down 0.50bp; 7 - year was 1.7025%, down 0.90bp; 10 - year was 1.8250%, down 0.70bp. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.3418%, down 0.09bp; Shibor overnight was 1.3220%, down 5.20bp; the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5000%, up 0.42bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.4880%, up 0.50bp. [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Policy and News - **Industrial and Information Development**: In 2025, the added value of large - scale industries in China increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the total telecom business volume increased by 9.1%. The first - stage 6G technology test in China formed over 300 key technology reserves, and the second - stage test has been launched. The scale of China's artificial intelligence core industry in 2025 is expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a guide for the construction of a comprehensive standardization system for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence, support local areas to build future industries according to local conditions, and increase the investment of government investment funds. [2] - **Fiscal and Financial Policies**: A package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand was introduced. A 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment was established for the first time, guiding banks to newly issue 500 - billion - yuan loans for private investment of small and medium - sized enterprises. A loan interest - subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises was implemented for the first time, covering 14 "key industrial chains and their upstream and downstream industries", the production service industry, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors. Policies such as interest - subsidy for service - industry business entities, personal consumer loans, and equipment renewal loans were optimized, and personal credit card bill installments were included in the interest - subsidy scope. [2] - **Fiscal Deficit and Debt**: In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt scale, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level, ensuring that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens". Ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will continue to be arranged in 2026 for "two important" construction and "two new" work, and policies will be optimized, and the negative - list management of special bond projects will be improved. The small and medium - sized enterprise loan interest - subsidy policy focuses on supporting 14 key industrial chains such as new energy, automobiles, industrial robots, medical equipment, and mobile communication equipment, their upstream and downstream industries, and production systems and services such as technology, logistics, information, and software. In 2025, the fiscal deficit rate was about 4%, and the new government debt scale was 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared with the previous year. [3]

。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 尿素产业日报 2026-01-21 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1779 | 4 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 29 | 3 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 241385 | 8311 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -13575 | 1493 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 13340 | -15 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1760 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1750 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1760 | 0 ...

研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11470 | -80 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 138509 | -5594 | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | | 433 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -46420 | 2171 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13100 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12700 | -200 | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | | 13900 | -200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 1630 | -20 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42967 | -713 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 3961 | -29 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 0.8 | ...

销售变现，整体购销活跃度有所提高，收购价格窄幅波动。盘面来看，受现货偏强支撑，近期盘面维持偏 强震荡。不过，上方压力仍然较大，短期有望高位震荡。 | 观点总结（ | 临近春节，下游领域需求较好， 提货积极，库存整体下降。截至1月21日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量106.9万吨，较上周下 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | 降3.10万吨，周降幅2.82%，月降幅2.99%；年同比增幅10.43%。不过，整体库存水平仍然处于相对高位。盘面来看，受玉米高位 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 回落影响，近两日淀粉也同步回落，短期或维持震荡。 | 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 玉米系产业日报 2026-01-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market shows a situation where the fundamentals are in a stage of sufficient supply and cautious demand, with seasonal inventory build - up in social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with light positions and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 101,280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 12,884.50 dollars/ton, up 131 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's holding volume of Shanghai copper was 223,784 lots, up 4,886 lots. The top 20 futures positions in Shanghai copper was - 54,818 lots, down 2,916 lots. The LME copper inventory was 156,300 tons, up 8,875 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 213,515 tons, up 32,972 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 47,800 tons, down 750 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrants were 145,581 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货 Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 100,060 yuan/ton, down 665 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 100,290 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) was 25 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 22 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis was - 1,220 yuan/ton, down 715 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread was + 17.80 dollars/ton, up 34.29 dollars; the domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was 101.84 dollars/kiloton, down 1.12 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi was 90,590 yuan/metal ton, down 320 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 91,290 yuan/metal ton, down 320 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper was 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee was 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper was 123.60 million tons, up 3.20 million tons; the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 270.43 million tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 68,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 82,650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products was 222.60 million tons, up 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 5,603.90 billion yuan, up 779.56 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 82,788 billion yuan, up 4,197.10 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,810,000 thousand pieces, up 418,000 thousand pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 28%, down 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 23.25%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option was 23.38%, down 0.0134%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.55, down 0.0084 [2] Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent revealed that Trump is close to nominating the next Fed chair, narrowing the candidates to four, with a final decision possibly announced next week. The European Parliament announced the freezing of the approval process for the trade agreement reached with the US in July last year. China's National Development and Reform Commission stated that in 2026, macro - policies will focus on strengthening the domestic cycle and expanding domestic demand in all aspects. A package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand was introduced, including a 500 - billion - yuan private investment special guarantee plan and a loan interest subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises. The January LPR quotes remained unchanged from last month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided text 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rate increase has not materialized, many shipping companies have successively lowered prices, weakening the support for futures prices; the geopolitical situation may improve, and the freight rate has dropped significantly. The current freight rate market is generally greatly affected by seasonal demand. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and timely track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1112.600, down 16.2; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1317.4, down 4.3 [1] - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 204.80, down 19.00; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 355.30, down 28.50 [1] - EC contract basis: 841.59, up 19.60 [1] - EC main contract open interest: not shown in a clear format in the text [1] - SCFIS (European Line) weekly: 1954.19, down 2.10; SCFIS (US West Line) weekly: 1305.27, down 18.71 [1] - SCFI (composite index) weekly: not shown in a clear format; CCFI (composite index) weekly: 1209.85, up 14.96; CCFI (European Line) weekly: 1582.60, up 14.85 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1567.00, up 83.00; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1458.00, up 63.00 [1] - Average charter price (Panama - type ship): 0.00, no change; Average charter price (Cape - type ship): 17000.00, down 2627.00 [1] 3.2 Industry News - IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, and also raised the economic growth forecasts for China, the US, the euro area and Japan in 2026. The report pointed out that the growth of information technology investment driven by artificial intelligence is becoming an important driving force for the global economy [1] - The EU will hold an emergency summit on January 22 to discuss issues such as US President Trump's announcement of imposing tariffs on European countries that oppose the US getting Greenland, and evaluate possible counter - measures. The EU is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth 9.3 billion euros [1] 3.3 Market Analysis - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European Line) fell collectively. The main contract EC2604 closed down 1.44%, and the far - month contracts fell between - 1% and - 1% [1] - Since April 1, 2026, all photovoltaic - related products on the list will no longer enjoy the VAT export tax - rebate preferential policy. The cancellation of the full - amount tax rebate for photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume, but weakening the support on the spot side [1] - China's manufacturing PMI data in December showed a slight recovery, generally in line with seasonal laws. The new export order index rebounded to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand boosted by Christmas [1] - In the spot freight rate, the fourth - week quotation for large containers ranged from 2600 to 3200 US dollars. Maersk's fourth - week opening price for large containers was 2700 US dollars, up 100 US dollars from the third week [1] - Zelensky said during a visit to Cyprus that the negotiations with US and European partners have reached a new level, and there is hope to end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea has improved [1] - Inflation pressure in the euro area has eased, weakening the market's expectation of an interest - rate hike by the European Central Bank before the end of the year. The CPI in the euro area in December returned to the medium - term target level set by the European Central Bank [1] 3.4 Key Points to Watch - UK December CPI monthly rate at 15:00 on January 21 [1] - UK December retail price index monthly rate at 15:00 on January 21 [1] - UK January CBI industrial order difference at 19:00 on January 21 [1]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,111.00 | -29↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1741235 | +13280↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -57265 | +10794↑ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -48 | 0.00 | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 49244 | -31304↓ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 165 | +6↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,310.00 | -20↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,395 | -21↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,470.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,17 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2170 - 2270 in the short - term. Although the methanol inventory at ports has decreased, the total inventory is still at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's weekly average operating rate is expected to decline, and currently, the MTO devices are operating stably with no obvious change plans [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2206 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is - 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. - The position volume of the main methanol contract is 830923 hands, a decrease of 27596 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is - 168939 hands. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8355, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price in Inner Mongolia is 1832.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 367.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 12 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 262 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 61 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.11 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 103.89 tons, a decrease of 8.44 tons. The inventory at South China ports is 39.64 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons. - The import profit of methanol is - 13.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.21 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 450900 tons, an increase of 3200 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.23%, an increase of 0.16%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.74%, an increase of 0.78%. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 78.4%, an increase of 1.41%. The operating rate of MTBE is 67.57%, unchanged. - The operating rate of olefins is 85.77%, a decrease of 2.29%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 957 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 21.27%, an increase of 0.42%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of methanol is 22.09%. - The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.86%, a decrease of 3.35%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of methanol is 22.19%, a decrease of 3.25% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of January 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 45.09 tons, a slight increase of 0.32 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.78 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. - As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 143.53 tons, a decrease of 10.19 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 8.44 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 1.75 tons. The significant reduction in port inventory was mainly due to the small total unloading volume. - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The MTO device of Zhejiang Xingxing entered the parking state, and some enterprises were still operating at reduced loads, causing the industry's operating rate to continue to decline passively [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - The I2605 contract's center of gravity moved down on Tuesday. With the current decline in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals, a slight reduction in the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills, molten iron production remaining below 2.3 million tons, and the iron ore port inventory reaching a new high, the port continues the inventory accumulation trend, and the spot resources are relatively abundant. Additionally, the first shipment of 200,000 tons of iron ore from Simandou arrived at China Baowu Magang, putting short - term pressure on ore prices. The technical analysis of the I2605 contract shows that the 1 - hour MACD indicator has DIFF and DEA running below the 0 - axis. The reference view is oscillating and bearish, and risk control should be noted. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 789.50 yuan/ton, down 4.50 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 586,412 lots, down 29,929 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 18 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 6,122 lots, up 5,773 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's I warehouse receipts are 1,500 lots, up 700 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote as of 15:00 is 104 US dollars/ton, down 0.66 US dollars. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 845 yuan/dry ton, down 9 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 837 yuan/dry ton, down 10 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 755 yuan/dry ton, down 11 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 48 yuan, down 5 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 104.45 US dollars/ton, down 1.70 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.11, up 0.07. The estimated import cost is 841 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. [2] 3.3. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 2,929.80 tons, down 251.10 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,897.70 tons, down 117.30 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,288.70 tons, up 244.26 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,262.22 tons, up 272.63 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 tons, up 911.00 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.95 tons, up 0.81 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.02%, up 1.30%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 43.44 tons, down 0.49 tons. The BDI index is 1,650, up 83. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.28 US dollars/ton, up 0.72 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.11 US dollars/ton, up 0.66 US dollars. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.82%, down 0.51%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.46%, down 0.60%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons. [2] 3.5. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 18.63%, up 0.12%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.03%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 22.15%, up 0.14%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 25.20%, up 0.79%. [2] 3.6. Industry News - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2,929.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 million tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,246.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,897.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,659.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,442.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26.3 million tons. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices closed collectively lower, with the three major indices opening higher and closing lower. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly fell below 4,100 points in the morning. Small and medium-cap stocks were weaker than large-cap blue-chip stocks, and the Shanghai 50 was the most resilient among the four broad-based indices. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.79%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded slightly. Most industry sectors rose, with the petroleum and petrochemical, and building materials sectors leading the gains, while the communication sector fell sharply. [3] - Overseas, on January 17, the United States imposed additional tariffs on eight European countries over the Greenland issue, intensifying market distrust of US dollar assets and further weakening the US dollar index. Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, China's GDP further declined in the fourth quarter, but the annual economic growth target of 5% was still successfully achieved. In December, except for the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size, fixed asset investment, social retail sales, and exports all declined year-on-year compared to November. [3] - Among the companies that have released their 2025 performance forecasts, only one-third have reported positive news. However, it is worth noting that most of the companies with positive profit forecasts are concentrated in high-tech industries such as artificial intelligence. Overall, there are still many positive factors in the A-share market. Although many economic indicators further declined in December, industrial production has grown steadily driven by industries representing new productive forces such as aerospace and artificial intelligence, which has weakened the negative impact of the decline in other economic indicators on the market to a certain extent. [3] - Since listed companies' annual report performance forecasts also echo this phenomenon, and listed companies related to aerospace and artificial intelligence have the largest weight in the CSI 500, they have a significant pulling effect on the CSI 500 index. Finally, driven by the foreign exchange settlement needs of export enterprises and the expectation of economic recovery, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel. Coupled with overseas risk events weakening the value of the US dollar, the strong RMB exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in the first quarter, and the stock market is gradually converging with the foreign exchange market. The spring market is still advancing. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The latest prices of the IF (CSI 300) main contract (2603) and the IH (Shanghai 50) main contract (2603) are 4,708.6 and 3,075.4 respectively, with a decline of 18.4 and 3.0 respectively. The prices of the IF and IH sub-main contracts (2602) also declined. The latest prices of the IC (CSI 500) main contract (2603) and the IM (CSI 1000) main contract (2603) are 8,248.8 and 8,120.8 respectively, with a decline of 41.0 and 84.6 respectively. The prices of the IC and IM sub-main contracts (2602) also declined. [2] - The spreads between different contracts, such as the IF-IH, IC-IF, IM-IC, etc., also showed certain changes, with most spreads declining. The spreads between different quarters and the current month of each contract also changed, with some showing an upward trend and some showing a downward trend. [2] Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in the IF, IC, and IM contracts all declined, while the net position of the top 20 in the IH contract increased. [2] Spot Prices - The spot prices of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. The A-share trading volume was 28,042.35 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance was 27,231.75 billion yuan. The northbound trading volume was 3,237.70 billion yuan. [2] Market Sentiment - The proportion of rising stocks decreased, and the Shibor increased. The closing prices and implied volatilities of IO at-the-money call and put options also changed. The 20-day volatility of the CSI 300 index increased, and the trading volume PCR and position PCR both decreased. [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The scores of the entire A-share market, technical aspect, and capital aspect all declined. [2] Industry News - In 2025, China's GDP was 14,018.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% at constant prices. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9% year-on-year. National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year. Social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The average urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%. [2] - In January 2026, the 1-year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, remaining stable for eight consecutive months since May 2025. [2] - As of January 20, 2026, 495 A-share listed companies had disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with 168 reporting positive news (104 with pre-increases, 35 with slight increases, 27 with turnarounds, and 2 with continued profits), a positive news ratio of 33.94%. 322 reported negative news, and 5 had uncertain performance. [2]