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瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 09:09
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 166,740.00 | +6240.00↑ 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -155,524.00 | -8121.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 427,928.00 | +12577.00↑ 近远月合约价差(日,元/吨) | -1,660.00 | -100.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单(日,手/吨) | 27,681.00 | 0.00 | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价(日,元/吨) | 158,500.00 | +6000.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价(日,万元/吨) | 155,000.00 | +6000.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -8,240.00 | -240.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价(日,美元/吨) | 1,845.00 | -45.00↓ 磷锂铝石平均价(日,元/吨 ...
瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20260121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 09:08
Report Summary - **Report Date**: January 21, 2026 - **Report Type**: Pure Benzene Industry Daily Report - **Researcher**: Lin Jingyi (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558) - **Assistant Researcher**: Xu Tianze (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03133092) 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic pure benzene supply and demand are expected to shift from a wide balance to a tight balance. The开工 rates of domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene decreased last week, leading to a decrease in pure benzene production. The weighted开工 rate of pure benzene downstream increased, and the inventory accumulation in East China ports slowed down. The profit of petroleum benzene is at a moderately low level. In mid - to - late January, the restart of some domestic petroleum benzene plants is expected to slightly increase the开工 rate. The restart of some styrene plants in late January will boost pure benzene demand, while the开工 rate of caprolactam is expected to remain low, and the开工 rates of aniline and adipic acid are expected to increase in the short term [2]. - In terms of cost, the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran remains uncertain, and international oil prices may be disturbed by geopolitical factors. In the short - term, BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5700 - 5930 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Key Data Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Pure Benzene Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 5805 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the settlement price was 5827 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. The trading volume was 40,563 lots, up 8249 lots; the open interest was 31,096 lots, down 1232 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Market**: The mainstream prices in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China were 5690 yuan/ton, 5580 yuan/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, and 5570 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions were 5750 yuan/ton and 5325 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **International Market**: The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 725 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars; the CFR mid - price in China was 723.36 US dollars/ton, down 2.12 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 68.17 US dollars/barrel, up 0.33 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 549 US dollars/ton, up 0.5 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 74.26%, down 0.12 percentage points; the weekly output was 43.64 tons, down 0.07 tons [2]. - **Inventory and Cost**: The port inventory of pure benzene was 32.4 tons, up 0.6 tons; the production cost was 4978 yuan/ton, up 63.4 yuan/ton; the production profit was 369 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Capacity Utilization**: The开工 rate of styrene was 70.86%, down 0.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 77.17%, up 2.95 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 88.75%, up 3.38 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 73.26%, up 11.95 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 65.3%, down 2.3 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January 10th to 16th, the开工 rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.12% to 74.26%, and the开工 rate of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 4.07% to 57.59% [2]. - From January 10th to 16th, the weighted开工 rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 2.14% to 74.50% [2]. - As of January 19th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 29.7 tons, down 8.33% from last week [2]. - From January 9th to 15th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 369 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous week [2].
瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20260121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 09:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For manganese - silicon, supply - side开工率and production decline, manganese ore port inventory slightly accumulates, silicon - manganese inventory decreases but remains high; demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types drops, and steel mill hot metal production declines. Cost support weakens, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. [2] - For silicon - iron, the fundamentals show a double - reduction in supply and demand, both at low levels in the same period, and the inventory is neutral. With the support of semi - coke, it is relatively resistant to decline, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价is 5,786.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价is 5,556.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan. [2] - SM期货合约持仓量is 613,881.00 hands, up 15,542.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量is 410,165.00 hands, up 1,189.00 hands. [2] - Manganese - silicon's top 20 net positions are - 12,303.00 hands, down 1,024.00 hands; Silicon - iron's top 20 net positions are - 27,919.00 hands, up 697.00 hands. [2] - SM5 - 3月合约价差is 38.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF4 - 3月合约价差is - 12.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan. [2] - SM仓单is 35,895.00 sheets, down 248.00 sheets; SF仓单is 0.00 sheets, down 10,007.00 sheets. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,370.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan. [2] - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,680.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,300.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. [2] - Manganese - silicon index average (weekly) is 5,735.00 yuan/ton, up 9.17 yuan; SF主力合约基差 (daily) is - 256.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan. [2] - SM主力合约基差 (daily) is - 116.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of South African high - iron manganese ore at Tianjin Port is 31.55 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%, Northwest) is 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The average price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at Tianjin Port is 36.45 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.30 yuan; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) is 820.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke is 1,110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Manganese ore port inventory (weekly) is 421.80 million tons, up 4.30 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise开工率 (weekly) is 36.06%, down 0.75%; silicon - iron enterprise开工率 (weekly) is 29.21%, down 0.42%. [2] - Manganese - silicon supply (weekly) is 190,575.00 tons, down 455.00 tons; silicon - iron supply (weekly) is 98,700.00 tons, down 400.00 tons. [2] - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly) is 372,800.00 tons, down 9,700.00 tons; silicon - iron manufacturer inventory (half - monthly) is 63,750.00 tons, down 5,160.00 tons. [2] - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory (monthly, days) is 15.52 days, down 0.32 days; silicon - iron national steel mill inventory (monthly, days) is 15.41 days, down 0.39 days. [2] - The demand for manganese - silicon in five major steel types (weekly) is 115,815.00 tons, down 84.00 tons; the demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (weekly) is 18,481.70 tons, down 27.10 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率of 247 steel mill blast furnaces (weekly) is 78.84%, down 0.47%; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mill blast furnaces (weekly) is 85.48%, down 0.56%. [2] - Crude steel production (monthly) is 6,818.00 million tons, down 169.10 million tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and crack down on low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. [2] - Mysteel: A steel mill in East China has tendered for silicon - manganese at a price of 5,830 yuan/ton, with a cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 5,720 yuan in Jiangsu and 5,650 yuan in Tianjin. [2]
瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20260121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 09:08
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3035 | 8 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 6206 | 0 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(5-9):(日,元/500千克) | -421 | -9 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 269989 | 2720 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 3 | -7 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) | 3.73 | 0 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | 693 | -8 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 112.03 | -2.21 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 101.18 | -13.26 | | | 主产区平均价:蛋鸡苗(周,元/羽) | 3 | 0.1 新增雏鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 93.62 | 26.53 | | | 平均 ...
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 09:08
铁矿石产业链日报 2026/1/21 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 784.00 | -5.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 575,249 | -11163↓ | | | I 5-9合约价差(元/吨) | 17.5 | -0.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -11649 | -5527↓ | | | I 大商所仓单(手) ...
瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 09:04
市场看空心态明显,价格恐难有反弹空间。短期SH2603预计偏弱波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 1939 | -21 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 260393 | 6766 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -30321 | 378 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 420709 | -129825 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) -11 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2391 | | 2144 | -29 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) 378 | -30321 | | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区( ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20260121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 09:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,650 - 12,430 in the short - term. The supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remains high, with an increase in both producer and trader inventories. Although short - term production profit has been significantly compressed, there are no signs of supply reduction. The downstream demand is weak as terminal users lack the willingness to stock up at high prices. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly, with some semi - steel tire enterprises maintaining a high operating rate supported by foreign trade orders, while all - steel tire enterprises still control production to manage inventory [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,915 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 330 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 93,726, with a week - on - week increase of 2,724 [2]. - The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with no change. The total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 8,130 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different producers in various regions has decreased. For example, the price in Shandong from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical is 11,550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 150 and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Guangdong from Maoming Petrochemical is 11,650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 315 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 330 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 64.92 dollars/barrel, with an increase of 0.98 dollars/barrel. The price of WTI crude oil is 60.36 dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.1 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 710 dollars/ton, with no change. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 549 dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton. The price of butadiene CFR China is 1,180 dollars/ton, with no change. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change. The capacity utilization rate is 69.42%, with a decrease of 1.89 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 44,600 tons, with an increase of 3,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.91%, with a decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a decrease of 0.75 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 79.68%, with an increase of 0.53 percentage points. The weekly production profit is - 386 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 721 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.49 million tons, with an increase of 0.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. The producer inventory is 26,900 tons, and the trader inventory is 8,040 tons, with an increase of 1,270 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.39%, with an increase of 8.5 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.52%, with an increase of 7.5 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,301 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,831 million pieces, with an increase of 663 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 46.1 days, with an increase of 1.48 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.92 days, with an increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. With the stable production of overhauled enterprises, the output increased significantly compared with last week, and the foreign trade orders of some semi - steel tire enterprises increased, boosting the capacity utilization rate [2]. - In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points compared with the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. - As of January 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.49 million tons, an increase of 0.18 million tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 5.50% [2]
瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 09:04
| | | 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 PVC产业日报 2026-01-21 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4743 | -64 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1324283 | -37449 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1071654 | 34533 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1092451 | 40442 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1167227 | 24205 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -74776 | ...
瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20260121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 09:03
名石化25万吨检修装置。下游农膜开工率或维持季节性下降趋势,包装膜备货峰值已过、需求跟进有限。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 成本方面,美伊局势仍有不确定性,国际油价或受地缘因素扰动。需求端持续偏弱,但由于行业检修装置 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 有所增加,库存去化顺利,市场观望情绪上升。L2605日度K线关注6450附近支撑与6710附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 塑料产业日报 2026-01-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6666 | 26 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6720 | 14 | | | 5 ...
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260121
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 09:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the non - tapping period, while the Thai producing areas are still in the peak production period. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The inventory in bonded and general trade warehouses has both increased, with the total accumulation rate showing little change compared to the previous period. African rubber is the main type of overseas shipments arriving at the port. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased month - on - month. The general trade inventory accumulation rate has narrowed. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly month - on - month. The short - term operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall device scheduling is expected to remain stable. There is still a phenomenon of production control in all - steel tire enterprises to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,250 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,745 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,615 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 55 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 181,112 lots, up 2,136 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 62,058 lots, down 1,666 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 47,357 lots, down 1,794 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,803 lots, up 357 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 109,870 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 55,742 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,880 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,875 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 345 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 870 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,161 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 546 yuan/ton, down 144 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 59.59 Thai baht/kg, down 0.66 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 56.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.52 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.12%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.04%, up 0.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.68%, down 0.4 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.67%, down 0.41 percentage points [2] Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2]