1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the market is in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply and a demand off - season. The aluminum price remains in high - level oscillation due to positive macro expectations. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the market is in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 635 yuan/ton to 23,725 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 30,668 lots. The LME aluminum price decreased by 54.5 dollars/ton to 3,074.5 dollars/ton, and the inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 501,750 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.07 to 7.72 [2] - The closing price of the main contract of alumina futures decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 2,863 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 61,525 lots [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 22,585 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 390 lots. The registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy in the SHFE increased by 539 tons to 69,737 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals A00 aluminum increased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals AOO aluminum decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 24,170 yuan/ton. The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals remained at 0 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy increased by 405 yuan/ton to 1,115 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 865 yuan/ton to 415 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina increased by 75 yuan/ton to - 278 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month increased by 27.30 million tons to 813.80 million tons, the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 85.00%, and the demand decreased by 24.27 million tons to 705.96 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap increased by 350 yuan/ton to 18,550 yuan/ton, and in Shandong metal scrap increased by 400 yuan/ton to 17,850 yuan/ton [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 4,396.16 tons to 162,756.17 tons, and the export volume increased by 39.07 tons to 71.53 tons. The export volume of alumina decreased by 1.00 million tons to 17.00 million tons, and the import volume increased by 4.31 million tons to 23.24 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 12.00 million tons to 4,536.20 million tons, the production of primary aluminum imports decreased by 101,652.54 tons to 146,109.72 tons, and the exports increased by 28,474.13 tons to 53,047.69 tons [2] - The production of aluminum products increased by 23.70 million tons to 593.10 million tons, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7.00 million tons to 57.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9.17 million tons to 70.00 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.03 million tons to 3.06 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national real estate climate index decreased by 0.52 to 91.90, and the automobile production increased by 24.00 million vehicles to 351.90 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.58 percentage points to 19.61%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 1.61 percentage points to 17.06% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options of Shanghai aluminum's main contract increased by 0.0268 percentage points to 27.94%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0324 to 1.54 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 52.4%, up 1.5 percentage points month - on - month, reaching the highest in 2025 [2] - In December 2025, China's passenger car market retail sales were 2.296 million vehicles, down 13% year - on - year and up 3% month - on - month. The new energy vehicle market retail sales were 1.387 million vehicles, up 7% year - on - year and up 5% month - on - month, with a new energy retail penetration rate of 60.4% [2] - In December 2025 in the US, the private - sector employment in ADP data increased by 41,000, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. In November 2025, the JOLTS job openings in the US dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market - expected 7.6 million [2] - The eurozone's CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, and the core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%. The market expects the European Central Bank to remain unchanged in the long - term [2] - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, running in the range of 49% - 50% for 10 consecutive months [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply and demand report. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. Imported soybean customs clearance policies affect near - month supply. With Australian rapeseed arriving, the marginal supply increases, and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations enhances the medium - and long - term supply pressure. Meanwhile, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal price dropped significantly today and is generally volatile [2]. - The rapeseed oil market: Domestic oil mills continue to be shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting its price and keeping the basis at a high level. Imported soybean customs clearance policies affect near - month supply. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed for later crushing and the increasing expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure increases. The rapeseed oil price is volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 8,956 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2,358 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan. The futures closing price of the active ICE rapeseed was 618.5 Canadian dollars/ton, up 5.7 Canadian dollars; that of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,430 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was 13 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was - 61 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract position of rapeseed oil was 248,582 lots, up 20,113 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 785,807 lots, up 64,896 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 22,389 lots, down 9,350 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 97,538 lots, down 78,782 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,892, down 238; that of rapeseed meal was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,440 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,806.25 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The import cost price of imported rapeseed was 7,488.03 yuan/ton, up 87.2 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 744 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan; that of the main rapeseed meal contract was 82 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,220 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,080 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 710 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons. The annual forecasted rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 499 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rate**: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4. Industry Situation - **Imports**: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume was 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue was 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6. Options Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.56%, up 1.51%; that of at - the - money put options was 19.57%, up 1.51%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.25%, up 1.35%; that of at - the - money put options was 16.25%, up 1.36% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 13.75%, down 0.59%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 12%, up 0.17%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.01%, down 0.62%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 13.17%, up 0.01% [2]. 3.7. Industry News - On January 7 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by optimistic trade expectations and the spill - over effect of the stronger US soybeans. The ICE March rapeseed futures contract rose 6.10 Canadian dollars, settling at 620 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, the short - term supply is abundant, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans means that the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, so there is still pressure on the US soybean market [2]. 3.8. Key Points to Follow - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index decreased slightly, and the expectation of tight ore supply continued, providing strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, due to the continuous tight raw material supply and the approaching holiday, copper smelting capacity may gradually shrink, and the growth rate of domestic refined copper supply will gradually slow down. On the demand side, after the copper price rebounded from its high, the repair strength was strong and remained at a high level, which had a certain inhibitory effect on downstream purchases. Downstream buyers mainly replenished their stocks according to demand, and the trading sentiment in the spot market became increasingly cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and cautious demand, and social inventories have accumulated. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions was 1.42, a month - on - month increase of 0.0986, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines were above the 0 - axis, and the green bars expanded. The suggestion is to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 101,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,190 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 12,805 dollars/ton, a decrease of 94.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 204,090 lots, a decrease of 11,779 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 60,574 lots, a decrease of 16,936 lots. LME copper inventories were 143,225 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories of cathode copper were 145,342 tons, an increase of 33,639 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 108,685 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 102,085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,325 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 102,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 44 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 42.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 865 yuan/ton, an increase of 865 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 14.98 dollars/ton, an increase of 12 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 252.62 million tons, an increase of 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 44.98 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.08 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 93,890 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 94,590 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 2,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north was 1,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The output of refined copper was 123.60 million tons, an increase of 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Social inventories of copper were 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 70,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 85,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Applications - The output of copper products was 222.60 million tons, an increase of 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 560.39 billion yuan, an increase of 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 7,859.09 billion yuan, an increase of 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,392 million pieces, an increase of 215 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 25.96%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 21.40%, an increase of 1.00 percentage point. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 33.04%, a decrease of 0.0060 percentage points; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.42, an increase of 0.0986 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points, reaching the highest level in 2025, indicating continuous active demand for physical - economy logistics services. In December 2025, the retail sales of China's passenger car market were 2.296 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. Among them, the retail sales of the new energy vehicle market were 1.387 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month increase of 5%, with a new energy retail penetration rate of 60.4%. The US "small non - farm" in December last year showed a moderate recovery. ADP data showed that the number of private - sector employees in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. In addition, the number of job openings in the US JOLTS in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market expectation of 7.6 million, reaching the lowest level since September 2024. The director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, Zhang Yuzhuo, visited Sichuan to conduct research in the R & D and production front - lines of relevant central enterprises, emphasizing the need to plan and implement a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance; coordinate the consolidation and improvement of traditional industries and the cultivation and growth of new kinetic energy, vigorously develop strategic emerging industries and future industries, and open up a "second growth curve". The preliminary value of the euro - zone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched service - sector inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. The market expects that unless there is a major change in the economic outlook, the European Central Bank will remain on hold for a long time. According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, in December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and it has been running in the range of 49% - 50% for 10 consecutive months [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will enter an adjustment phase, and investors should pay attention to the battle at the 24,000 yuan mark. The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has intensified, leading to a significant decline in processing fees both at home and abroad, and a contraction in domestic smelter profits, which is expected to continue to limit production. The export window may close again due to the recent decline in LME zinc prices and the rise in the Shanghai-London ratio. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors also weakening, while the automotive sector has some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, with weak procurement recently, high and stable spot premiums, and a significant increase in domestic inventories. The increase in LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position has decreased, the price has adjusted, the bullish sentiment is cautious, and there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355 yuan; the 02 - 03 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,167.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 83.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 225,559 lots, a decrease of 4,684 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 5,885 lots, an increase of 163 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons; the LME inventory is 105,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 45.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8.53 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, a decrease of 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 1.139 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, an increase of 240,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 25.8%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 25.8%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 19.15%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 12.39%, unchanged [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Eight departments plan to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals, aiming to achieve safe and reliable supply of key core technologies in artificial intelligence in China by 2027. The Bloomberg Commodity Index will conduct its annual weight re - balancing from January 8th to 14th, and the "technical selling" of passive funds may cause a liquidity shock. In the US, the ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, reversing the decline in November but lower than expected. The JOLTS job openings in November dropped to a more than one - year low, with the number of job openings less than the number of unemployed for the first time in four years, indicating a slowdown in recruitment. The ISM services PMI in December reached 54.4, a more than one - year high, showing robust demand and a recovery in recruitment [3].

大；云南开榨糖厂已达38家，同比增加7家。12月广西糖产量同比减少，白糖价格震荡可能。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5279 | -2 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 429678 | -10268 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 6005 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -71689 | 9715 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 4563 | 0 | | | | | | 4079 | 50 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 4124 | 50 | | 现货市场 | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5168 | 吨) 65 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5227 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas of China decreased by 126,600 tons compared with last week, and the de - stocking speed increased slightly month - on - month but was still lower than the same period last year. The market price of high - quality Fuji apples in the cold storage was relatively stable, and the general fruit farmer's goods were priced according to quality. The overall trading atmosphere in the producing areas was not strong, and most merchants purchased on demand. In the Shaanxi producing area, the trading volume of fruit farmers' goods increased slightly, while in the Shandong producing area, the transactions were sporadic. The downstream traders replenished their stocks cautiously, and the trading of fruit farmers' goods was light. In the sales area, fruits such as cherries and citrus were popular, but as the producing areas entered the festival stocking stage, the short - term price would run strongly [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 9,531 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest was 122,541 lots, a decrease of 11,108 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 5,464 lots, a decrease of 1,061 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) was 5.25 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) was 2.4 yuan/jin, both unchanged. The spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) was 4.2 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 second - grade fruit farmers' goods) was 4 yuan/jin, both unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China was 51.2851 million tons, an increase of 1.6834 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples was 9.43 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.1 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples was 55.35%, a decrease of 0.80%, and that of Shandong apples was 51.85%, a decrease of 0.57%. The total inventory of national apple cold storage was 7.209 million tons, a decrease of 126,600 tons. The monthly export volume of apples was 120,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 11.17946 million US dollars, a decrease of 2.16418 million US dollars. The year - on - year export value of apples decreased by 216,418 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears was 6.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas was 6.93 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons was 5.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg. The average daily arrival volume of trucks in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 17.25 vehicles, a decrease of 1.35 vehicles; that at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market was 21.25 vehicles, and that at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market was 31.75 vehicles, a decrease of 4.05 vehicles [2] Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 25.08%, an increase of 0.1%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples was 25.08%, an increase of 0.09% [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 145,000.00 | +2700.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -154,440.00 | -2377.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 514,467.00 | +7947.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -7,040.00 | -5640.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 25,770.00 | +590.00↑ | | | | ...

的持续性。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 红枣产业日报 2026-01-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 9075 | -75 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 121402 | 3301 0 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -21004 | -573 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 2263 | | | | 有效仓单预报 ...

不锈钢产业日报 2026-01-08 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 货同样不多，因此全国不锈钢社会库存维持季节性小幅下降。技术面，放量减仓价格回调，多头氛围下降 。观点参考：预计不锈钢期价高位调整，关注MA5支撑。 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 13675 | -210 02-03月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -145 | -5 62968 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2026-01-08 [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 12,195 yuan/ton [2] - The open interest of the main contract for synthetic rubber decreased by 3,753 to 30,228 [2] - The 2-3 spread of synthetic rubber is -35 yuan/ton [2] - The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber decreased by 30 to 4,530 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong, Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai, and Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong are 11,800 yuan/ton, 11,800 yuan/ton, 11,800 yuan/ton, and 11,850 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices increasing by 50 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is -305 yuan/ton [2] - Brent crude oil price is 59.96 US dollars/barrel, down 0.74 [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan price is 745 US dollars/ton [2] - Northeast Asian ethylene price is 1,005 US dollars/ton, up 20 [2] - Butadiene CFR China price is 532.75 US dollars/ton, down 1.5 [2] - WTI crude oil price is 55.99 US dollars/barrel, down 1.14 [2] - The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong increased by 150 to 9,300 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change [2] - The weekly butadiene capacity utilization rate increased by 0.56 percentage points to 71.17% [2] - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 1,400 to 44,700 tons [2] - The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units decreased by 0.37 percentage points to 54.57% [2] - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 0.75 to 13.01 million tons [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 0.5 percentage points to 76.76% [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 334 yuan/ton [2] - The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 0.05 to 3.45 million tons [2] - The weekly manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 2,550 to 26,300 tons [2] - The weekly trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 1,490 to 7,180 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 69.35% [2] - The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 59.55% [2] - The monthly production of all - steel tires increased by 59 to 1,301 million pieces [2] - The monthly production of semi - steel tires increased by 663 to 5,831 million pieces [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 47.05 days, with a 0.19 - day increase [2] - The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.05 days [2] Group 3: Industry News - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [2] - In December, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35 million tons (10.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, a 4.65 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 2.68 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year [2] - As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 million tons (1.08%) [2] - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene units, supply has remained high. The cis - butadiene market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of production enterprises have improved, but there is some inventory waiting to be picked up after being sold, and the overall inventory level has changed little [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoints - This period, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber has remained at a high level. The cis - butadiene market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of production enterprises have improved, but the overall inventory level has changed little due to the existence of unsold inventory [2] - The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials have led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. However, due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, they may maintain rigid demand purchases. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase in the short term [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has decreased this week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [2] - The short - term price of the br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,000 and 12,550 [2]