Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures oscillated and closed higher this week, with the main 2603 contract closing at 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from last week. The US corn is entering the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions support its price. In China, the corn purchase in the Northeast has exceeded half, reserve and imported corn supplies are increasing, and farmers are still reluctant to sell. Feed and deep - processing enterprises' inventories are rising, and low inventories at ports and downstream enterprises support the price. However, the driving force for continuous increase needs further observation, so it's advisable to wait and see [6]. - Dalian corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher, with the main 2603 contract closing at 2535 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of January 7, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was at a high level, indicating supply pressure. But some downstream customers are repurchasing corn starch due to the large increase in tapioca starch price, so it's necessary to pay attention to the pre - Spring Festival stocking. Affected by the rise in corn price, starch prices followed suit, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Zhoudu Yaodian Xiaojie (Weekly Key Points Summary) Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The US corn is in the export peak season with high supply pressure, but good exports support the price. In China, as of December 29, 1.17 billion tons of corn had been purchased in the Northeast. After New Year's Day, reserve and imported corn supplies increased, farmers were reluctant to sell, deep - processing enterprises' inventories rose, and feed enterprises maintained rigid procurement. Low inventories at ports and downstream enterprises support the price, but the driving force for continuous increase needs observation [6]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2535 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: As of January 7, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 1.125 million tons, up 0.20 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14%. High inventory means supply pressure, but some downstream customers are turning back to corn starch due to tapioca starch price increase. Pay attention to pre - Spring Festival stocking [8]. 2. Qixian Shichang Qingkuang (Futures and Spot Market Situation) Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 1,049,843 lots, up 40,582 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 197,160 lots, up 1,671 lots from last week [14]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 146,474, compared with - 168,889 last week, indicating a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 40,680, compared with - 31,610 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [20]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 36,555 lots, and those of corn starch were 12,477 lots [26]. Spot Price and Basis - As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2351.37 yuan/ton. The basis between the active 3 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 88 yuan/ton [31]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton in Shandong, remaining stable this week. The basis between the 3 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 165 yuan/ton [35]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 9 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 43 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [41]. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contracts of starch and corn was 272 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 424 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from last week [48]. Substitute Spread - As of January 8, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2511.44 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2351.37 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 160.07 yuan/ton. In the second week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 626 yuan/ton, narrowing 35 yuan/ton from last week [55]. 3. Chan Ye Qingkuang (Industrial Chain Situation) Corn Supply Side - As of January 2, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 478,000 tons, up 93,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 294,000 tons, down 30,000 tons. The total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 1.538 million tons, down 75,000 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 593,000 tons, down 74,000 tons week - on - week [45]. - As of January 8, the overall corn selling progress was 48%, up 4% from last week and 3% from the same period last year. Different provinces showed varying progress [57]. - In November 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons (86.67%) from the same period last year and 200,000 tons from the previous month [61]. - As of January 8, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.10 days, up 0.18 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.81% [65]. Demand Side - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, up 9.86 million (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million, down 450,000 (1.12%) month - on - month [69]. - As of January 2, 2026, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 34.59 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 48.35 yuan/head [73]. - As of January 8, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 49 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 510 yuan/ton in Henan, - 826 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 289 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [78]. Corn Starch Supply Side - As of January 7, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.54 million tons, with an increase of 1.32% [82]. - From January 1 - 7, 2026, the national corn processing volume was 627,900 tons, down 3,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 324,800 tons, down 2,700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 59.37%, down 0.49% from last week. As of January 7, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.125 million tons, up 2,000 tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14% [86]. 4. Qiquan Shichang Fenxi (Option Market Analysis) - As of January 9, the main 2603 contract of corn oscillated and rose, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 12.23%, up 0.91% from 11.32% last week. The implied volatility rebounded this week and was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [89].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 沪镍不锈钢市场周报 利润修复产量回升 镍不锈钢震荡调整 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 获取更多资讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 3 周度回顾：本周沪镍主力冲高回调，周线涨跌幅为+4.70%，振幅12.50%。截止本周主力收盘报价139090元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国劳动力市场未显明显压力，上周首次申请失业救济人数环比微增至20.8万，低于预期 21.2万；美债收益率反弹、美元四周新高。基本面，菲律宾进入雨季，镍矿进口量回落趋势；印尼明年RKAB计划 大幅削减配额，原料供应趋紧引发市场担忧，长期仍需看传导进程。冶炼端，印尼镍铁产量维持高位，回流国内 数量预计增加；国内精炼镍产能较大，近期镍价回升，利润得到修复，预计后续精炼镍产量将再度回升。需求端， 不锈钢成本镍铁下跌，钢厂利润改善，预计排产量高位；新能源汽车产销继续爬升，三元电池贡献小幅需求增量。 国内镍库存增长趋势，市场逢回调采买为主，现货升水高位；海外LME库存增长放缓。技术面，放量增仓大幅回 调，多空分歧较大。 观点参考：预计短线沪镍宽幅调整 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot - rolled coil market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors. In the short term, influenced by macro factors, price fluctuations are amplified. It is recommended to operate the HC2605 contract in the range of 3250 - 3350, while paying attention to market changes and risk control [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Summary a. Market Review - As of January 9th, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3294 yuan/ton (+24), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton (+20). Hot - rolled coil production increased to 305.51 million tons (+1), with a year - on - year increase of 1.62 million tons. Apparent demand declined to 308.34 million tons (-2.43), with a year - on - year decrease of 5.33 million tons. Factory inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. The total inventory was 368.13 million tons (-2.83), with a year - on - year increase of 58.22 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and 12.99 percentage points from last year [8] b. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the US Congressional Budget Office predicts a slight interest - rate cut by the Fed this year. Domestically, the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the replacement policy has improved the industry's operating pressure. - **Cost - aspect**: Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, supporting the futures price. Coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded, but may enter a range - bound pattern. - **Technical - aspect**: The HC2605 contract rose and then pulled back. The daily K - line is above multiple moving averages, and the MACD shows an upward rebound [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price Performance - This week, the futures price of the HC2605 contract rose and then pulled back. It was weaker than the HC2610 contract, with a spread of - 24 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [16] b. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On January 9th, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 139,537 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,349 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of hot - rolled coil futures contracts increased by 19,787 contracts to 6,907 contracts [21] c. Spot Price Performance - On January 9th, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3318 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price was weaker than the futures price, with a basis of 36 yuan/ton on the 9th, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [25] 3. Upstream Market a. Raw Material Prices - On January 9th, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1560 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [30] b. Ore Shipment and Arrival - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased. The arrival volume at Chinese ports increased, with the 45 - port arrival volume rising by 155.0 million tons [37] c. Ore and Billet Inventories - This week, iron ore port inventories increased to 170.4444 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2265 million tons. On January 8th, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei, was 1407,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 141,400 tons [42] d. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased to 71.61%, and the coke inventory decreased to 44.17 million tons [46] 4. Industry Conditions a. Supply Side - In November 2025, China's crude steel production decreased year - on - year. The weekly production of hot - rolled coils increased to 305.51 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 368.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.83 million tons [50][53][58] b. Demand Side - In 2025, from January to November, automobile production and sales, as well as home appliance production, increased year - on - year [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a volatile and upward trend this week, with a gain of +17.69% and an amplitude of 21.15%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 143,420 yuan/ton [7]. - The lithium carbonate market fundamentals may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and cautious demand, with industrial inventory basically unchanged from last week and the inventory reduction rate slowing down. It is recommended to conduct light - position volatile trading and pay attention to controlling risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate main contract was volatile and slightly stronger on the weekly line, with a gain of +17.69% and an amplitude of 21.15%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 143,420 yuan/ton [7]. - **Macro Aspect**: Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to implement a green consumption promotion campaign, with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects, supporting consumers to purchase new - energy vehicles [7]. - **Fundamentals - Raw Material End**: Lithium ore prices have been rising with the continuous increase in lithium carbonate prices. Due to the relatively favorable lithium carbonate futures price, there may be a certain hedging space, which has improved the raw material trading situation [7]. - **Supply End**: Due to the existence of hedging space in the futures market, smelters may maintain a relatively active production state after participation, and the domestic supply has shown a slight upward trend [7]. - **Demand End**: Downstream battery cathode material manufacturers generally have a low acceptance of the current high - price lithium, and their procurement strategies are mainly based on rigid - demand purchases. Therefore, the market sentiment remains cautious [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 143,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21,840 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 4,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 140,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21,500 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 3,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 340 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,600 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 140 US dollars/ton. As of the latest data this week, the US dollar - to - RMB spot exchange rate was 6.9807, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13% [22]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of lithiophilite was 16,075 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,050 yuan/ton. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 6,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 894 yuan/ton [26]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply - **Imports and Exports**: As of November 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,055.19 tons, a decrease of 1,825.51 tons or 7.64% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The monthly export volume was 759.243 tons, an increase of 513.33 tons or 208.75% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 249% [32]. - **Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, an increase of 2,840 tons or 5.26% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 50.08%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [32]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Downstream Demand - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 157,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22,500 yuan/ton. As of November 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 231,050 tons, an increase of 12,150 tons or 5.55% from October, and a year - on - year increase of 37.08% [35]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 47,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 269,330 tons, an increase of 440 tons or 0.16% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 32.48%. The monthly operating rate was 60%, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 6% [39]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 60,430 tons, a decrease of 1,090 tons or 1.77% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 16.26%. The monthly operating rate was 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type continued to rise [44]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,030 tons, a decrease of 180 tons or 1.76% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 1.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 49,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 yuan/ton [48]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 388,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13,800 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,770 tons, a decrease of 280 tons or 1.74% from November, and a year - on - year increase of 118.72% [51]. 3.6 Industry Situation - Application - **New - Energy Vehicles - Sales**: As of November 2025, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles was 47.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74% and a year - on - year increase of 7.18%. The monthly production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.09%; the sales volume was 1.823 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% [53]. - **New - Energy Vehicles - Exports**: As of November 2025, the cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles was 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 102.89% [58]. 3.7 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.28, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs has slightly recovered but the pressure is average, and the demand is in the peak season but has declined from the high level. The supply - demand relationship shows a weak balance, and the fundamentals have not changed much. Therefore, the live pig price will mainly fluctuate [6] Summary by Directory 1. 周度要点小结 - The live pig price fluctuated slightly downwards, with the main contract 2603 falling 0.21% weekly [6][10] - According to Mysteel data, the sample enterprises' slaughter plan in January decreased month - on - month. The slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms has recovered compared with that after the Spring Festival, but the overall slaughter volume is average. After the New Year's Day, the demand for cured meat decreased, and the terminal consumption tolerance was limited after the price increase. The slaughter enterprises'开工 rate dropped from the high level [6] 2. 期现市场 Futures Market - The futures fluctuated this week, and the main contract 2603 fell 0.21% weekly [8][10] - As of January 9, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 51,549 lots, a decrease of 49 lots from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 918, a decrease of 95 lots from the previous week [16] - The price difference between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 445, and the price difference between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1,125 [20] Spot Market - The basis of the live pig January contract this week was 950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the March contract was 1,130 yuan/ton [25] - The national average live pig market price this week was 12.45 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 24.48 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.76 yuan/kg from last week [35] - According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the week of December 31, the national pork market price was 22.80 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.32 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [39] - As of the week ending December 31, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.40, an increase of 0.16 from the previous week [44] 3. 产业情况 Upstream - In October 2025, the official inventory of reproductive sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons (1.12%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased 0.18% month - on - month and 0.47% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased 1.19% month - on - month and 1.54% year - on - year [49] - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms decreased 0.23% month - on - month and increased 4.72% year - on - year, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased 0.09% month - on - month and increased 8.17% year - on - year [53] - According to Mysteel data, in December, the live pig slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms increased 3.68% month - on - month and 6.64% year - on - year, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased 6.39% month - on - month and 13.67% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.03 kg from last week [58] Industry - As of January 9, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 2.31 yuan/head, with the loss narrowing by 40.03 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was 11.54 yuan/head, with the loss narrowing by 23.05 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.29 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/head, and the 817 meat - crossbred chicken breeding profit was 0.25 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 yuan/head [63] - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12%. In November, the pork import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [68] - As of the week of January 9, the price of白条 chicken was 13.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of January 8, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg from last week [72] - As of January 9, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,248.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 79.03 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,351.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.22 yuan/ton from the previous week [77] - As of January 9, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange live pig feed cost index was 906.26, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, the same as last week [80] - As of November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. In November, the sales of piglet feed increased 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85] - As of December 2025, China's CPI increased 0.8% year - on - year [89] Downstream - In the second week of 2026, the slaughter enterprises'开工 rate was 36.63%, a decrease of 3.71 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.68 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh sales rate was 87.54%, a decrease of 0.59% from last week, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.62%, a decrease of 0.29% from last week [92] - As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 24.04%. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97] Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98]

Group 1: Report Summary - The domestic urea market rose strongly this week, with the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized granules in Shandong reaching 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton by Thursday, up 55 yuan/ton from January 4th. The urea market is expected to have limited short - term fluctuations. The production is likely to increase next week, while the agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the downstream is resistant to high - priced goods. The short - term de - stocking of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,750 - 1,800 yuan [6] Group 2: Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 1.6% this week [9] - As of January 9th, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 23 [12] - As of January 9th, there were 12,850 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 469 from last week [19] Group 3: Spot Market - As of January 8th, the mainstream price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [23] - As of January 8th, the FOB price of urea in China was 400 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from last week [27] - As of January 8th, the urea basis was - 16 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from last week [32] Group 4: Upstream - As of January 7th, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [35] - As of January 8th, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [35] Group 5: Industry - As of January 8th, China's urea production was 1371,600 tons, up 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, up 2.93% from the previous period [38] - As of January 8th, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 140,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32,000 tons, a decline of 18.60%. As of January 7th, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,022,200 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [41] - In November 2025, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a month - on - month decline of 49.95% [44] Group 6: Downstream - As of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.17%, a month - on - month increase of 3.28 percentage points. Next week, the enterprise start - up rate is expected to be stable with a slight increase [47] - As of January 8th, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 54.35%, an increase of 6.70 percentage points from last week [47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cost support of the natural rubber market strengthened, and rubber prices showed a strong consolidation after surging. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, but the spot purchase price was lower than that of the far - month contracts. Factory restocking was in moderation. The futures market maintained a strong and volatile pattern, and domestic spot prices followed the upward trend. Downstream purchasing willingness was relatively weak, mainly for moderate and necessary restocking, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions [7]. - The Yunnan rubber - producing area in China is in the non - tapping period, and the Hainan area is at the end of the tapping season. It is expected that the Hainan area will fully enter the non - tapping period next week. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao ports has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases, and the total inventory accumulation rate has expanded compared to the previous period. Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuated at a high level. Some tire enterprises had holiday maintenance and shutdowns. Except for a small amount of restocking at low prices, most enterprises were in a wait - and - see mode, and their purchasing was cautious. The decline in the total outbound volume at Qingdao ports led to a significant increase in the total inventory [7]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume operation, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The cost support of the natural rubber market strengthened this week. Import rubber offers rose, futures were volatile and strong, and domestic spot prices followed the increase. Downstream purchasing was mainly for necessary restocking, and actual transactions were light [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and Hainan is at the end of the tapping season. Qingdao port inventory is accumulating. Before the holiday, rubber prices are high, and tire enterprises' purchasing is cautious. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises decreased this week and may increase slightly next week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,600 - 16,400, and the nr2603 contract between 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 2.72% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber rose by 2.33% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided, only the topics of the top 20 position changes of Shanghai rubber and 20 - grade rubber are mentioned [12][14]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of January 9, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 25, and the spread between the February and March contracts of 20 - grade rubber was - 45 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 9, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 104,490 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber were 56,952 tons, a decrease of 1,007 tons from last week [26]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of January 8, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of January 8, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of January 9, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 56 (+1.8) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.2 (+1.1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 24 US dollars/ton, an increase of 21 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of January 8, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the Yunnan producing area was in the non - tapping period [44]. - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [47]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.80% [51]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, the cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% [57]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles sold [60].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the price of the container shipping index (European line) futures dropped significantly. The main contract EC2602 closed down 8.98%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 5%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index was 1795.83, up 53.19 points from last week, a 3.1% increase. The manufacturing PMI data in China in December showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand boosted by Christmas. [1] - Maersk lowered the quotation for some non - European base ports (such as Gdansk) by $250 in the fourth week of January, and CMA CGM and the Ocean Alliance also lowered their quotations for the first half of January. The market quotation center generally fell to the range of $2300 - 2800 per FEU. The loosening of spot quotations by leading shipping companies broke the market's expectation of consistent price support by shipping companies, leading to a rapid decline in futures prices. [1] - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and European partners have reached a new level, and the conflict with Russia is expected to end in the first half of 2026. The expectation of the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has improved. The euro - zone economy has continued to pick up, and the inflation sub - item has continued to decline, which creates conditions for the European Central Bank to maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude. The euro - zone economy is expected to continue its relative strength since the third quarter. [1] - The planned freight rate increase has not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered their prices, and the support for futures prices has weakened. The geopolitical situation may improve, leading to a significant decline in freight rates. The current freight rate market is generally greatly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner. [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Data Indicators - EC main contract closing price: 1706.000, down 168.3; EC second - main contract closing price: 1163.3, down 58.20 [1] - EC2602 - EC2604 spread: - 54.40 (down), EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 291.00, down 65.20 [1] - EC contract basis: 89.83, up 73.10 [1] - EC main contract open interest: 20008, down 1803 [1] - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1795.83, up 53.19; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1250.12, down 51.29 [1] - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1656.32, up 103.40; Container ship capacity (in 10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged [1] - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1146.67, up 21.94; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1519.06, up 45.16 [1] - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1776.00, up 54.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1317.00, down 13.00 [1] - Average charter price (Panamax ship): unchanged; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 20582.00, down 963.00 [1] Industry News - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and European partners have reached a new stage, and the conflict with Russia may end during Cyprus' term as the rotating EU presidency in 2026. [1] - The US "small non - farm" in December 2025 showed a mild recovery. The number of private - sector employees in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. The number of JOLTS job openings in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market expectation of 7.6 million, hitting the lowest level since September 2024. [1] - The preliminary value of the euro - zone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched service - sector inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. The market expects that unless there is a major change in the economic outlook, the European Central Bank will remain on hold for a long time. [1] Key Points to Watch - Germany's seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate in November on January 9th at 15:00 [1] - China's CPI annual rate in December on January 9th at 09:30 [1] - France's industrial output monthly rate in November on January 9th at 15:45 [1] - Euro - zone's retail sales monthly rate in November on January 9th at 18:00 [1] - US unemployment rate in December on January 9th at 21:30 [1] - US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls (in 10,000 people) in December on January 9th at 21:30 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the near - term, the total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory accumulation rate increasing month - on - month. The rubber price is oscillating at a high level before the holiday. Some tire enterprises are on holiday for maintenance. Except for a small amount of replenishment at low prices, most enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode and are cautious in purchasing. The decline in the total outbound volume at Qingdao Port has led to a significant increase in the total inventory. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has decreased this week. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may slightly rebound next week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,450 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE rubber contract is 16,120 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,065 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan. The SHFE rubber 5 - 9 spread is 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between SHFE rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,055 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The position of the main SHFE rubber contract is 196,468 lots, down 3,654 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 71,121 lots, down 1,611 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE rubber is - 46,456 lots, up 3,840 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 13,566 lots, up 475 lots. The SHFE rubber exchange warehouse receipt is 103,190 tons, unchanged; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipt is 57,154 tons, up 202 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,930 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,925 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's Styrene - Butadiene Rubber 1502 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's Butadiene Rubber BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] 3.3 Basis - The SHFE rubber basis is - 430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main SHFE rubber contract is - 1,080 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,368 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 218 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.31 Thai baht/kg, up 0.72 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 56.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.6 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 55.25 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, down 19.8 US dollars [2] 3.5 Import Volume - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 59.55%, down 2.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 69.35%, down 2.7 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, up 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, up 0.19 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 59,130,100 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58,316,630 pieces [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.8%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.62%, up 0.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.63%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] 3.8 Weather and Market News - From January 3rd to January 9th, 2026, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. North of the equator, there is no red - alert area, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, slightly increasing the impact on tapping. South of the equator, the red - alert areas are mainly in Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, reducing the impact on tapping. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a 16% month - on - month decrease and a 13% year - on - year increase. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 4th, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a 4.48% increase. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an 8.16% increase; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, a 3.8% increase. As of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a 2.75 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease and a 13.97 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.5%, a 2.43 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease and a 3.37 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. In December, the three major official PMI indices in China rebounded from below the boom - bust line to the expansion range, indicating economic repair signs. The important meetings at the end of 2025 set a positive tone for the economic work in 2026, creating a warm macro - environment and strong bottom support for A - shares [2]. - The US labor market shows a mild recovery. However, due to the demand for foreign exchange settlement of export enterprises and the expectation of economic recovery, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel. After the offshore RMB exchange rate weakened on January 7th, it strengthened again, and the strong exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in the first quarter [2]. - As the Spring Festival is relatively late this year, the market has started to trade in advance the policy expectations of the Two Sessions to be held in early March, leading to an obvious pre - positioning of the A - share spring market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - **Contract Prices**: The latest price of the IF (CSI 300) main contract (2603) is 4718.4, down 33.0; the IH (SSE 50) main contract (2603) is 3122.4, down 19.4; the IC (CSI 500) main contract (2603) is 7814.4, up 4.2; the IM (CSI 1000) main contract (2603) is 7820.6, up 52.0 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: The IF - IH spread of the current - month contract is 1616.2, down 12.2; the IC - IF spread is 3151.6, up 54.8; the IM - IC spread is 64.6, up 52.2 [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 20**: The net position of the top 20 in IF is - 31,972.00, up 2406.0; in IH is - 15,637.00, up 327.0; in IC is - 28,190.00, down 1954.0; in IM is - 43,286.00, down 2146.0 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the IF main contract is - 19.3, up 4.4; the IH main contract is 0.3, up 1.7; the IC main contract is - 80.1, down 7.7; the IM main contract is - 552.6, down 151.0 [2]. Spot Market Data - **Index Prices**: The CSI 300 is 4737.65, down 39.0; the SSE 50 is 3122.1, down 23.1; the CSI 500 is 7894.5, up 19.5; the CSI 1000 is not clearly presented in a comparable form [2]. - **Market Turnover and Balance**: A - share trading volume is 7,971.6 billion yuan, up 65.2; margin trading balance is 26,047.42 billion yuan, up 248.42; north - bound trading volume is 3268.59 billion yuan, up 82.68 [2]. Market Sentiment - **Fund Flows**: The main funds' net outflow decreased from - 633.24 billion yuan to - 536.40 billion yuan [2]. - **Option Data**: The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2601) is 40.60, down 21.40; the implied volatility is 14.99%, up 0.28; the closing price of the put option is 49.00, up 12.40; the implied volatility is 14.99%, down 0.10 [2]. - **Volatility and PCR**: The 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index is 13.64%, up 0.24; the volume PCR is 47.47%, down 5.47; the open interest PCR is 75.80%, down 6.80 [2]. Industry News - A - share major indices mostly closed down, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chips. The defense and military industry sector strengthened significantly, while the non - bank financial sector weakened [2]. - In the US, the private - sector employment in December increased by 41,000, reversing the previous month's decline and driving the overnight US dollar index stronger [2]. Key Data to Focus On - On January 8th at 20:30, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in the US in December; on January 9th at 9:30, China's December CPI and PPI; on January 9th at 21:30, the US's December non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].