Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 16.65 CNY per share [1][3] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on its 2024 performance forecast, with expected net profit for 2024 projected to be between 0.85 billion to 1.20 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decline of 67.22% to 53.64% [3][5] - The company plans to raise up to 725 million CNY through a private placement to expand its coffee production capacity, which is expected to enhance its growth trajectory and mitigate declines in its other business segments [3][5] - The company is actively investing in new media platforms to enhance its marketing efforts and has initiated a strategic partnership in the oat processing sector [3][5] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 2,258 million CNY, a decrease of 20.5% year-on-year, with a recovery projected in subsequent years [5][8] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to be 17.6% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 18.3% by 2026 [5][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 103 million CNY in 2024, with a recovery to 135 million CNY in 2025 and 158 million CNY in 2026 [5][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.26 CNY in 2024, increasing to 0.34 CNY in 2025 and 0.40 CNY in 2026 [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Supply optimization and demand improvement are highlighted, with a focus on investment opportunities in the rare earth industry [15]. - The report indicates a significant increase in rebar consumption and prices, with a notable rise in steel prices across various categories [16][41]. - The industrial metals sector is expected to see continued copper price increases due to rising demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Macro Overview - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public opinion on regulations for rare earth mining and processing, which is expected to stabilize prices and optimize supply [15]. - The report suggests that the rare earth industry is poised for high-quality development, benefiting from emerging applications in humanoid robots and magnetic materials [15]. 2. Steel Industry - Rebar consumption reached 1.69 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 162.77% [20]. - The average price of rebar is reported at 3,491 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 1.38% week-on-week [41]. - The overall steel price index increased by 1.29%, with hot-rolled prices rising to 3,453 CNY/ton [41]. 3. New Energy Metals - In January 2025, China's lithium carbonate production was 54,410 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.55% [47]. - The report notes a significant rise in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, with January 2025 production at 965,800 units, up 27.85% year-on-year [51]. 4. Industrial Metals - The report indicates that the TC/RC remains negative, with copper prices expected to rise due to increased demand from various sectors [18]. - The LME aluminum price was reported at 2,702 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.50% [18]. 5. Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen to 2,949.6 USD/ounce, with a week-on-week increase of 1.93% [18]. - The report anticipates continued support for gold prices due to global central bank purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks [18].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 64.86 for Beike [4]. Core Views - Beike, as a leading real estate brokerage in China, is expected to benefit from the 2025 policy goal of stabilizing the market, leading to a recovery in transaction volumes and housing prices. The "three wings" business model is rapidly developing and maturing [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 60,669 million in 2022, with a projected increase to HKD 126,029 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2018 to 2023. The adjusted net profit is expected to grow from HKD -1,386 million in 2022 to HKD 8,547 million in 2026 [6][27]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to be HKD 2.41, HKD 2.60, and HKD 3.12 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a reference PE of 23 times for 2025 [4][6]. Business Model and Strategy - Beike is transitioning from a traditional real estate brokerage to a technology-driven integrated housing service platform, having completed approximately 4.4 million property transactions in 2023, with a total transaction value of HKD 31,429 billion [11][27]. - The "one body and three wings" strategy includes core brokerage services and expansion into home decoration, rental services, and other housing-related services, which are becoming significant growth drivers [27][28]. Market Position - Beike holds approximately 25% market share in the existing housing brokerage sector, with significant growth potential as the market shifts towards existing homes. The company maintains a strong bargaining position with commission rates consistently above industry averages [11][27]. - The new housing brokerage business is also performing well, with Beike's quality coverage and de-stocking capabilities allowing it to outperform the market [11][27]. Growth Drivers - The non-brokerage business segments, particularly home decoration and rental services, are increasingly contributing to revenue, with their combined revenue share rising to 36% in the first three quarters of 2024, up from 25% in 2023 [27][28]. - The company has seen a significant rebound in net profit, achieving HKD 59 billion in 2023, a 245% increase in adjusted net profit compared to the previous year, driven by improved transaction volumes and profitability in non-brokerage services [38][41].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 64.86 for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the 2025 policy goal of stabilizing the market, which is expected to lead to a recovery in transaction volumes and housing prices. The "three wings" business model is rapidly developing and maturing [4][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 60,669 million in 2022, with a projected increase to HKD 126,029 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2018 to 2023. The adjusted net profit is expected to grow from HKD 5,883 million in 2023 to HKD 8,547 million in 2026 [6][27]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to be HKD 2.41, HKD 2.60, and HKD 3.12 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a reference PE of 23 times for the target price calculation [4]. Business Model and Strategy - The company is transforming from a traditional real estate agency to a technology-driven integrated residential service platform, leveraging a digital infrastructure that includes the ACN network and property dictionary [11]. - The "one body and three wings" strategy includes core brokerage services and expansion into home decoration, rental services, and development services, which are becoming significant growth drivers [27][11]. Market Position - The company holds approximately 25% market share in the existing housing brokerage business, with significant growth potential as it expands into lower-tier cities [11]. - The company completed around 4.4 million property transactions in 2023, with a total transaction value of HKD 31,429 billion, indicating strong market presence [11]. Revenue Composition - The revenue from non-brokerage businesses has been increasing, contributing 25% in 2023 and projected to rise to 36% in 2024, highlighting the diversification of income sources [28][27]. - The company’s gross margin has improved since 2022, driven by higher profitability from existing housing and home decoration services [32]. Management and Governance - The company has a dual-class share structure, with the core management team holding nearly 50% of the voting rights, ensuring strong governance and strategic direction [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a 20x PE valuation for the years 2024-2026 [3][6]. Core Views - The company has signed a deep cooperation agreement with Huawei, which is expected to help reverse the challenges faced by its self-owned brands. The collaboration will focus on exploring innovations in smart automotive technology and business models, enhancing product definition, manufacturing, supply chain management, and sales services [2][8]. - The company's sales have shown marginal improvement, with January 2025 total sales reaching 264,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. This marks the first positive year-on-year growth since March 2024 [8]. - The company is undergoing significant reforms in its self-owned and joint venture brands, aiming for stabilization and upward momentum in 2025. The establishment of a "large passenger vehicle sector" is part of these reforms, which will enhance management efficiency and decision-making processes [8]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 720,988 million CNY, with a projected decline to 611,672 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 721,878 million CNY by 2026 [5]. - Operating profit is expected to drop significantly to 2,577 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 20,402 million CNY in 2025 and 22,102 million CNY in 2026 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease to 1,771 million CNY in 2024, with a substantial recovery anticipated in the following years [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.15 CNY in 2024, increasing to 1.07 CNY in 2025 and 1.16 CNY in 2026 [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum, with a target price of 10.17 CNY based on a 9x PE valuation for 2025 [1][4]. Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is positioned as a leading integrated aluminum industry player with significant overseas resource investments and a strong vertical integration model, which is expected to drive continuous growth in performance [2][4][20]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.93 CNY, 1.13 CNY, and 1.32 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by lower alumina costs and stable aluminum prices [4][6]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 34.18 billion CNY, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach 4.32 billion CNY, marking a 95.7% increase [6][23]. Company Overview - Tianshan Aluminum has established a comprehensive aluminum production chain, including electrolytic aluminum, power generation, and alumina, making it one of the few companies with a complete vertical integration advantage in China [15][20]. - The company has a total share capital of 465.19 million shares, with a market capitalization of 40.15 billion CNY as of February 20, 2025 [1]. Industry Analysis - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is severely constrained, with the industry reaching a production capacity ceiling of approximately 45.1 million tons, limiting future growth in supply [39][42]. - The report indicates that the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow steadily, driven by emerging sectors, despite a decline in traditional sectors [39][40]. Production and Capacity - Tianshan Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is currently at 1.2 million tons, with an additional 200,000 tons of compliant capacity pending construction [8][20]. - The company has made significant investments in overseas alumina resources, securing exclusive purchasing rights for alumina from projects in Guinea and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance its cost advantages [8][20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shandong Steel, with a target price of 1.69 CNY per share based on a projected PB of 0.94X for 2025 [3][6]. Core Views - Shandong Steel, a traditional steel enterprise, is undergoing a transformation supported by synergies from Baowu Steel Group, which has acquired a significant stake in the company. This partnership is expected to enhance operational efficiency and cost reduction [7][18]. - The steel industry is currently facing a downturn due to weak demand, particularly from the real estate sector, but there are signs of a potential recovery as costs decline and new demand from shipbuilding and infrastructure projects emerges [7][39]. - The company's advanced products, such as section steel and ship plates, are well-positioned to meet future demand, providing opportunities for profitability despite current challenges [7][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shandong Steel was established in 2011 through the merger of Jinan Steel and Laiwu Steel, focusing on plate and coil products as its main profit sources [12][21]. - The company is controlled by the Shandong State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with Baowu Steel holding a strategic stake [16][17]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has declined significantly, with 2022 revenue at 102.3 billion CNY, down 7.7% year-on-year, and 2023 revenue projected to decrease by 11.5% [3][21]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders has also suffered, with a forecasted loss of 2.1 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 425.6% year-on-year decline [3][36]. Industry Status - The steel industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with a decline in crude steel apparent consumption for three consecutive years, and a projected further decrease in demand from the real estate sector [39][50]. - Despite the challenges, there are expectations for a gradual recovery in demand, particularly in the shipbuilding and infrastructure sectors, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating the economy [52][56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the machinery equipment industry [4] Core Insights - Two leading overseas construction machinery companies forecast a pessimistic demand for global construction and mining equipment in 2025, while Chinese manufacturers are expected to enhance market share through proactive market strategies and targeted product development [2][23] - The overseas agricultural machinery leaders anticipate a significant decline in agricultural equipment demand in North America for 2025, with slight declines in other markets [2][23] - Chinese agricultural machinery products are expected to perform better in overseas markets outside North America, where demand is contracting at a slower pace [2] Summary by Sections 1. Latest Financial Status of Overseas Machinery Leaders - Caterpillar reported Q4 2024 revenue of $16.215 billion, a 5% year-on-year decline, with operating profit of $2.924 billion, down 6.7% [11][12] - Komatsu achieved revenue of ¥989.2 billion in FY2024 Q3, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with operating profit of ¥162.6 billion, up 4% [11][12] - John Deere's FY2025 Q1 revenue was $8.508 billion, down 30.2% year-on-year, with operating profit of $1.724 billion, down 42.9% [11][12] 2. Latest Business Conditions of Overseas Machinery Leaders - Caterpillar's construction and resource sectors faced demand pressure, while the energy sector remained stable, with a 27% increase in power generation demand [14][15] - Komatsu's construction, mining, and public utility equipment sales remained stable, with growth in Oceania and Indonesia, despite declines in other regions [16][17] - John Deere's sales across its main business segments saw significant declines due to reduced shipment volumes [19] 3. Future Expectations of Overseas Machinery Leaders - Caterpillar expects a slight revenue decline of about 1% in 2025, with construction and resource sectors facing downturns, offset by growth in the energy sector [19][20] - Komatsu has raised its demand forecast for North America and China for FY2024, expecting a 3.2% revenue increase [20][21] - John Deere predicts a significant decline in demand for large agricultural equipment in the U.S. and Canada, with expectations of recovery later in the year [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6][10] Core Views - The company is expected to enhance shareholder returns with the implementation of its first interim dividend plan, distributing a cash dividend of 0.35 yuan per 10 shares [9] - The product structure is rapidly improving, leading to better profitability, with significant growth expected in high-end products [9] - The company is committed to executing its five-year plan, aiming to double its net profit margin by 2027, supported by product upgrades and cost control measures [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.66, 0.78, and 0.97 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a target price of 17.16 yuan based on a 22x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10] - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 10,006 million yuan in 2022 to 12,507 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.6% [7][15] - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly, from 403 million yuan in 2022 to 1,029 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [7][15] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 24.0% in 2022 to 29.5% in 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [7][15] - The net profit margin is expected to rise from 3.6% in 2022 to 6.7% in 2026, showcasing improved profitability [7][15] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 14.0% in 2022 to 18.6% in 2026, reflecting better capital utilization [7][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [4][6][10] Core Views - The company is expected to enhance shareholder returns with the implementation of its first interim dividend plan, distributing a cash dividend of 0.35 yuan per 10 shares [9] - The product structure is rapidly improving, leading to better profitability, with significant growth expected in high-end products [9] - The company is committed to executing its five-year plan, aiming to double its net profit margin by 2027, supported by product upgrades and cost control [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.66, 0.78, and 0.97 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a target price of 17.16 yuan based on a 22x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10] - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 10,006 million yuan in 2022 to 12,507 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.6% [7][15] - The gross profit margin is expected to increase from 24.0% in 2022 to 29.5% in 2026, indicating improved operational efficiency [7][15] Shareholder Returns and Dividend Policy - The company plans to increase both the frequency and rate of dividends in 2024, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [9] - The five-year plan emphasizes reducing debt and financial costs, which will positively impact cash flow and dividend capacity in the long term [9] Product Development and Market Position - The company is experiencing double-digit revenue growth in its low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt segments, indicating strong market demand [9] - The introduction of high-end products is expected to continue driving revenue growth, with a focus on direct-to-consumer channels [9] Financial Ratios and Performance Metrics - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 3.6% in 2022 to 6.7% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [7][15] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 14.0% in 2022 to 18.6% in 2026, indicating effective management of shareholder equity [7][15]