Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 11.73 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the earnings for 2025 [2][11][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.29 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.3%, and a net profit of 666 million CNY, up 4.4% year-on-year [10]. - The almond milk segment showed steady growth, with revenue reaching 3.19 billion CNY in 2024, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year, driven by improved penetration in the northwest region [10]. - The company is expected to benefit from lower raw material costs in 2025, leading to a significant increase in gross margin, projected at 48.1% in Q1 2025, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to generate revenues of 3.36 billion CNY in 2025, 3.57 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.75 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of 2.3%, 6.1%, and 5.1% [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit is expected to reach 726 million CNY in 2025, 787 million CNY in 2026, and 831 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 8.9%, 8.5%, and 5.6% respectively [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to be 0.69 CNY in 2025, 0.75 CNY in 2026, and 0.79 CNY in 2027 [4][11]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to improve to 43.5% in 2025, with a slight increase to 43.6% in the following years [4]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 25, 2025, was 9.92 CNY, with a 52-week high of 10.31 CNY and a low of 6.73 CNY [5]. - The company has shown strong absolute performance over various time frames, including a 14.29% increase over the past three months [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.62 yuan, based on a valuation of 160 billion yuan [2][5][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a decline in revenue and gross margin for 2025-2026 due to the gradual ramp-up of mid-range and high-end liquor sales. The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 0.27, 0.36, and 0.45 yuan respectively [2][11]. - The low-end liquor segment has contributed to the growth of the liquor business, and the expansion into external markets has supplemented revenue [10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 10,593 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 9,126 million yuan, reflecting a further decline of 13.8% [4][10]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 is 31.8%, expected to improve to 36.0% in 2024, and further to 37.5% by 2027 [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is reported at -296 million yuan, with a forecasted recovery to 231 million yuan in 2024 [4][10]. - The company’s operating profit for 2023 is 75 million yuan, with a significant increase projected for 2024 at 528 million yuan [4][10]. Revenue Breakdown - The liquor business generated 70.41 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19%. The sales volume for liquor reached 369,400 kiloliters, with revenue contributions from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor at 9.7 billion, 10.9 billion, and 49.7 billion yuan respectively [10]. - The pork business reported a revenue of 16.90 billion yuan in 2024, down 29.64% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 96,700 tons, a decrease of 33.82% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 53.01 CNY [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve strong performance in 2025, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.11 CNY, 1.44 CNY, and 1.85 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.97 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 342 million CNY, up 31.7% year-on-year [7]. - The online channel transformation has shown positive results, with online revenue reaching 2.54 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 86% of total revenue, and growing by 35.8% year-on-year [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 3.78 billion CNY in 2025, 4.67 billion CNY in 2026, and 5.66 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of 27.2%, 23.6%, and 21.3% [2][11]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve to 74.8% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 11.8% [2][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase to 12.4% in 2025 and further to 16.4% by 2027 [2][11]. Brand and Product Performance - The main brand, Marubi, achieved a revenue of 2.06 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 31.69%, while the PL brand, Lianhuo, saw a revenue increase of 40.72% to 905 million CNY [7]. - Revenue growth rates for product categories in 2024 were as follows: eye care at 61%, skincare at 22%, cleansing at 9%, and makeup at 40% [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully transitioned from a traditional cosmetics firm to a biotechnology beauty company, as indicated by its rebranding to "Marubi Biotechnology" [7]. - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and cost control, which has contributed to the improvement in gross margins [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 40.32 CNY, based on a projected average PE of 36 times for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is actively expanding new projects and developing its robotics business to cultivate a second growth curve [1]. - The financial performance for 2024 is in line with expectations, with a projected revenue of 2.352 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, and a net profit of 163 million CNY, up 11.9% year-on-year [8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its global presence and expanding its product offerings in the new energy sector, including partnerships with major clients in the automotive industry [8]. Financial Forecasts - The forecasted net profits for the years 2025 to 2027 are 244 million CNY, 305 million CNY, and 375 million CNY respectively, with a significant increase of 49.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year [2][4]. - Revenue projections show a steady increase from 2.889 billion CNY in 2025 to 4.032 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 22.8%, 17.8%, and 18.5% respectively [4][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 24.0% in 2024 to 25.7% in 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing strategies [4][8]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 6.9% in 2024 to 9.3% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [4][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to rise from 6.1% in 2024 to 8.9% in 2027, showcasing improved efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 11.04 CNY based on a 16x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company's revenue is under short-term pressure, but there is sufficient growth momentum. The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected earnings per share of 0.69 CNY, 0.80 CNY, and 0.97 CNY respectively [2][8]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.001 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 3.0% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 397 million CNY, down 29.5% year-on-year. However, the gross margin improved to 57.5% due to a higher proportion of high-margin formulations [4][8]. - The company has a clear growth trajectory with new product approvals and ongoing international expansion efforts. In 2024, four generic drug projects were approved, and several others are in various stages of development [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 4,123 million CNY - 2024: 4,001 million CNY - 2025: 4,598 million CNY (14.9% growth) - 2026: 5,361 million CNY (16.6% growth) - 2027: 6,336 million CNY (18.2% growth) [4][10] - **Net Profit**: - 2023: 563 million CNY - 2024: 397 million CNY - 2025: 683 million CNY (71.9% growth) - 2026: 796 million CNY (16.5% growth) - 2027: 961 million CNY (20.8% growth) [4][10] - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2023: 0.57 CNY - 2024: 0.40 CNY - 2025: 0.69 CNY - 2026: 0.80 CNY - 2027: 0.97 CNY [4][10] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 52.9% (2023), 57.5% (2024), 57.0% (2025E), 57.8% (2026E), 58.0% (2027E) - Net Margin: 13.7% (2023), 9.9% (2024), 14.9% (2025E), 14.8% (2026E), 15.2% (2027E) [4][10]

Group 1: Report Core View - The bond market experienced a "roller coaster" in Q1 2025, with interest rates rising unexpectedly and then falling from late March. Currently, interest rates have no clear direction and may continue to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for new catalysts from the fundamentals or the central bank [6][12][13] - The subsequent trend of the capital market remains uncertain. Historically, the capital interest rates tend to fluctuate upward from May to June, and the central bank's over - issuance of MLF has dampened market expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [6][12] - In the credit bond market, the net financing in the week of April 21 - 27 exceeded 100 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and the valuation of credit bonds rose slightly, with spreads widening [6][16][17] - In the convertible bond market, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose last week. It is optimistic about the allocation demand for convertible bonds this year, especially with the decrease in the number of outstanding convertible bonds [6][19] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking 2.1 Interest - rate Bonds - The bond market is waiting for new catalysts. Interest rates may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long - duration interest - rate bonds while maintaining liquidity [6][12][13] 2.2 Credit Bonds - In the week of April 21 - 27, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 546.5 billion yuan, a 28% increase from the previous week. The total repayment was 430.6 billion yuan, also a 28% increase. The net financing reached 115.9 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and the valuation and spreads of credit bonds showed certain changes [16][17][78] 2.3 Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is likely to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to buy on dips. The convertible bond market followed the rise of the equity market last week, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 0.90%. It is optimistic about the allocation demand for convertible bonds this year [18][19] 2.4 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, important data to be released include China's official manufacturing PMI for April, the US ADP employment data for April, and the eurozone's economic sentiment index for April [20][21] 2.5 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest - rate Bonds - This week, the estimated issuance of interest - rate bonds is 233.1 billion yuan, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There are no plans to issue treasury bonds. The planned issuance of local bonds is 93.1 billion yuan, and the estimated actual issuance of policy - financial bonds is about 140 billion yuan [22] Group 3: Interest - rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Conditions - The central bank maintained a net injection through reverse repurchase. The total injection through reverse repurchase was 882 billion yuan, and the MLF was renewed with an unexpected 600 billion yuan. The total net injection in the open - market operations was 774 billion yuan. The trading volume in the capital market remained high, and the prices decreased [26][27] 3.2 The Bond Market Continues to Swing Around the Expectation of Loose Monetary Policy - Recent central bank actions such as the unchanged LPR, the over - issuance of MLF, and the central bank's statements have led to fluctuations in bond market interest rates, which mainly increased. On April 25, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds increased compared to the previous week [38] Group 4: High - frequency Data - On the production side, most of the operating rates increased. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales remained positive, while land and property sales showed different trends. In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices rose, and coal prices were divided [50][51] Group 5: Credit Bond Review 5.1 Negative Information Monitoring - From April 21 to 27, 2025, there were bond defaults and overdue events, and some companies had their ratings or outlooks downgraded or faced other negative events [77][78] 5.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance of credit bonds increased, and the net financing exceeded 100 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and there were 14 bonds whose issuance was cancelled or postponed [78][79] 5.3 Secondary Trading - The valuation of credit bonds rose slightly, and the spreads widened. The turnover rate decreased slightly, and most of the top - ten turnover bonds were issued by central and state - owned enterprises. The number of high - discount bonds decreased slightly, and most of them were real - estate enterprise bonds [17][82][92]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.62 yuan, based on a valuation of 160 billion yuan [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in mid-range and high-end liquor sales, leading to a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026. The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.27, 0.36, and 0.45 yuan respectively [2][11]. - The company’s low-end liquor segment is contributing to the growth of its overall liquor sales, with expansion into external markets supplementing revenue [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 10,593 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9,126 million, 8,662 million, 8,897 million, and 9,152 million yuan respectively, reflecting a continued decline in 2024 and a slight recovery thereafter [4][10]. - The gross profit margin improved to 36.03% in 2024, up by 4.23 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin reached 2.53%, an increase of 5.32 percentage points [10]. - The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected at 231 million yuan, a significant increase of 178.2% compared to the previous year [4][10]. Product Segment Performance - In 2024, the liquor business generated 70.41 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%. The sales volume for liquor reached 369,400 kiloliters, with revenue contributions from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor at 9.7 billion, 10.9 billion, and 49.7 billion yuan respectively [10]. - The company’s pork business, however, saw a revenue decline of 29.64% in 2024, totaling 16.90 billion yuan, with a significant drop in sales volume [10]. Market and Regional Insights - The company’s revenue from the Beijing region decreased by 35.75% in 2024, while revenue from external regions increased by 1.25%, indicating successful market expansion efforts outside of Beijing [10]. Valuation Assumptions - The report utilizes a Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) valuation method, with key parameters including a tax rate of 25%, a perpetual growth rate of 3%, and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.37% [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 53.01 CNY [3][8] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve strong performance in 2025, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.11 CNY, 1.44 CNY, and 1.85 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][8] - The company reported a revenue of 2.97 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 342 million CNY, up 31.7% year-on-year [7] - The online channel transformation has shown positive results, with online revenue reaching 2.54 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 86% of total revenue, and growing by 35.8% year-on-year [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: 3.78 billion CNY in 2025, 4.67 billion CNY in 2026, and 5.66 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of 27.2%, 23.6%, and 21.3% [2][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to increase to 74.8% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 11.8% [2][11] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise to 12.4% in 2025 and 16.4% in 2027 [2][11] Brand and Product Performance - The main brand, Marubi, achieved a revenue of 2.06 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 31.69%, while the PL brand, Lianhuo, saw a revenue increase of 40.72% to 905 million CNY [7] - Revenue growth rates for product categories in 2024 were as follows: eye care at 61%, skincare at 22%, cleansing at 9%, and makeup at 40% [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully implemented a three-year online and offline channel strategy, which has stabilized market order and pricing systems [7] - The rebranding to "Marubi Biotechnology" signifies a strategic shift from traditional beauty products to biotechnology-based beauty solutions [7]

房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 地产政策仍定位于托底和稳信心 核心观点 投资建议与投资标 ⚫ 4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出 "加力实施城市更新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。"2024 年 10 月住 建部提出通过货币化安置房等方式新增实施 100 万套城中村改造、危旧房改造，并 于今年两会上表示将继续扩大规模。多城已出台放票安置政策，我们认为年内旧改 有望继续放量。针对部分项目"征收方案扎实"和"项目资金总体平衡"之间的矛 盾，不排除未来中央财政补贴资金缺口以及央行投放 PSL 以支持城中村改造。"加 快构建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给。"今年"好房子"首次被写入 《政府工作报告》，3 月底，住建部发布国家标准《住宅项目规范》。虽然新房市 场整体成交同比仍有下行压力，但在部分高能级城市，核心区域质量与得房率双高 楼盘陆续推出，释放改善型住房需求，在一定程度上给予新房销售支撑。未来随着 更多四代宅的推出，新房销售有望开始企稳。"优化存量商品房收购政策。"2024 年 10 月，财政部提出专项债收储商品房用作保障性住房；2025 年 3 月， ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 以稳为主 ——策略周报 0428 研究结论 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | | --- | --- | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：——策略周报 | 2025-04-17 | | 0414 | | | ...