Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market had expected certain negative factors in the bond market in June, mainly related to liquidity. However, these factors may have been fully anticipated and priced in, suggesting potential repair opportunities in the bond market in June. The report is not pessimistic about the bond market in June, expecting bond yields to experience a slight repair [5][8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking - Market expectations of negative factors in the bond market in June include seasonal liquidity tightness, large government bond supply, and significant maturing interbank certificates of deposit (ICDs), which may pose liability pressure on banks. However, these factors may have been fully anticipated by the market, and in the absence of new negative factors, their impact on the bond market may be controllable [5][8]. - Non - bank liquidity is relatively abundant, with wealth management products increasing their purchases of ICDs from April to May. Insurance companies' bond - allocation willingness has decreased recently but may improve in June due to potentially large maturing insurance deposits [5][8]. - Last week, long - term bond yields adjusted and then marginally recovered. Market concerns about central bank actions and liquidity, uncertainties regarding the bond - and fund - product allocation enthusiasm of banks and insurance companies, and strong stock market performance all pressured the bond market. Eventually, long - term yields recovered as yields rose to around 1.73% and cross - month liquidity fluctuations were relatively stable. On May 30, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year government bonds changed by 0.6, - 1.4, - 0.1, 1, and - 4 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [5][44]. 2. Fixed Income Market Outlook 2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Releases - This week, important data to be released include China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the US May unemployment rate, and the Eurozone's ECB deposit facility rate [18][19]. 2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest - Bearing Bonds - This week, approximately 715.6 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds are expected to be issued, which is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, 446 billion yuan of government bonds, 109.6 billion yuan of local government bonds, and about 160 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds are expected to be issued [19][20]. 3. Interest - Bearing Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Liquidity Injection and Funding Conditions - The central bank significantly increased reverse repurchase operations. The net liquidity injection through open - market operations this week was 656.6 billion yuan. Cross - month funding pressure was manageable, with the volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase transactions seasonally declining and the overnight share averaging around 83%. Funding rates increased only slightly at the end of the month. On May 30, overnight and 7 - day DR rates changed by - 8.3 and 7.9 basis points respectively compared to the previous week, while overnight and 7 - day R rates changed by - 4.5 and 7.1 basis points respectively [22][23]. - ICD issuance was concentrated in state - owned banks, and the proportion of longer - term issuance increased. From May 26 to June 1, the issuance volume was 669.5 billion yuan, the maturity volume was 652.7 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1.68 billion yuan. In terms of issuing banks, state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks issued 366.2, 92.2, 178.1, and 30.4 billion yuan respectively, with net financing of 140.6, - 900, - 23, and - 24.9 billion yuan respectively [28]. 3.2 Long - Term Yield Adjustment and Recovery - Last week, long - term bond yields adjusted and then recovered. Market concerns about central bank actions and liquidity, uncertainties regarding the bond - and fund - product allocation enthusiasm of banks and insurance companies, and strong stock market performance all pressured the bond market. Eventually, long - term yields recovered as yields rose to around 1.73% and cross - month liquidity fluctuations were relatively stable. On May 30, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year government bonds changed by 0.6, - 1.4, - 0.1, 1, and - 4 basis points respectively compared to the previous week. The 10 - year government bond yield declined the most, by about 4 basis points, while the 1 - year Agricultural Development Bank bond yield increased the most, by 3.2 basis points [44]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, the operating rates were mixed. The blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the asphalt operating rate decreased. The average daily crude steel production in mid - May decreased year - on - year [54]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales remained high. The year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales area fluctuated significantly. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by 30.7% and 0.9% respectively [54]. - In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices diverged, and coal prices also showed divergence. In the mid - stream, building material prices, cement prices, and glass prices all decreased. Rebar production continued to decline slightly, inventory decreased at an accelerated pace, and futures prices declined. On the consumer side, vegetable prices increased, while fruit and pork prices decreased [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the US debt crisis and tariff shocks, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in the gold sector [12]. - Steel prices are experiencing a significant decline, with the overall price index dropping by 1.90% [37]. - The supply and prices of new energy metals are both on the decline, indicating potential challenges in this sector [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The US debt crisis and tariff shocks are leading to a focus on gold investment opportunities, with expectations of continued high gold prices due to market conditions [12]. - Steel consumption has slightly increased, but overall prices are down, with rebar prices falling to 3217 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.94% [13][37]. 2. Steel Industry - Steel consumption for rebar reached 2.49 million tons, a slight increase of 0.63% week-on-week [17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 933 thousand tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar steel shows divergence, with long process profitability slightly increasing while short process profitability decreased [32]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in April 2025 was 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.87% [41]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 61,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.17% [50]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper smelting fees (TC) have slightly increased, with the current fee at -43.50 USD/thousand tons, up 1.69% week-on-week [61]. - The overall production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang decreasing by 3.79% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the overall sentiment in the fixed - income market was relatively optimistic, but the cost - effectiveness of chasing the upward trend was decreasing. The supply pressure of secondary perpetual bonds throughout the year was controllable, and the risk mainly came from the non - redemption of small banks. It was recommended to control the duration at around 5Y and not to be too long. The strategy of appropriately extending the duration proposed at the beginning of May relatively outperformed [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Enterprise Perpetual Bonds 3.1.1 Primary Market - In May, 82 enterprise perpetual bonds were issued, raising a total of 103.7 billion yuan, a decrease of about 37% compared to the previous month. The repayment scale dropped to 72.3 billion yuan, a significant 49% decrease month - on - month, resulting in a net inflow of 31.4 billion yuan. The proportion of issuance by AAA high - grade entities rose to 90%. The issuance costs of AAA and AA were 2.21% and 2.78% respectively, with the former decreasing by 8bp and the latter increasing by 9bp month - on - month, while the AA+ issuance rate dropped back to 2.77%. The top three industries in terms of issuance volume were public utilities, building decoration, and urban investment, with the comprehensive industry remaining in the fourth place [5][10]. 3.1.2 Secondary Market - In May, the yields of industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds fluctuated downward. The risk - free yield decreased at the short end and increased at the long end, leading to a narrowing of the credit spread at the short end and a widening at the long end. The urban investment variety spread mainly narrowed, while the high - and low - grade trends of the industrial variety spread diverged. The trading volume of enterprise perpetual bonds decreased slightly, and the turnover rate increased slightly. No new cases of non - redemption of enterprise perpetual bonds occurred in May [5]. 3.2 Financial Perpetual and Subordinated Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - In May, the issuance volume of financial perpetual bonds increased significantly month - on - month, with the issuance of bank perpetual bonds doubling. A total of 11 financial perpetual bonds were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of 194.3 billion yuan, doubling month - on - month. The issuance scale of financial subordinated bonds decreased month - on - month, with the bank issuance scale shrinking slightly. A total of 111.7 billion yuan of financial subordinated bonds were issued in May, with bank secondary capital bonds accounting for the largest proportion [37][41]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market - In May, the spreads of financial institutions narrowed across the board, with the narrowing of long - term bank spreads being particularly obvious. Except for the 27bp widening of the spread of AA+ insurance capital supplementary bonds, the spreads of other grades of financial institutions narrowed by 3 - 10bp. The total trading volume and turnover rate of bank perpetual bonds increased simultaneously, while the trading volume of bank secondary capital bonds decreased slightly, but the turnover rate also increased slightly. No new cases of non - redemption of bank secondary capital bonds occurred in May, but the redemption date of "20 Changchun Rural Commercial Secondary 01" was postponed by 3 months to September 29, 2025 [5][53][58]. 3.3 ABS 3.3.1 Primary Market - In May, a total of 159 ABS projects were issued, raising a total of 151.9 billion yuan. The number of projects decreased by 26% month - on - month, and the total financing amount decreased by 29% compared to April. Personal consumption loan ABS had the largest issuance scale, followed by financial leasing and accounts receivable. The financing cost of ABS projects decreased significantly [64]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - In May, the yields to maturity of ABS at all grades and terms decreased across the board, with a consistent decline of around 5bp. The long - term spreads narrowed more significantly. The secondary trading enthusiasm of ABS continued to decline month - on - month, and a small amount of discount trading occurred in Gemdale ABS [70][72]. 3.4 June Strategy for Secondary Perpetual Bonds - In May, the increased issuance of secondary perpetual bonds brought supply pressure, and there was a certain selling pressure in the secondary market. The turnover rate fluctuated upward at a high level, and the spread narrowed slightly. Looking forward to June, the annual supply pressure was controllable, and the risk mainly came from the non - redemption of small banks. If seeking returns, it was necessary to extend the duration of large banks, but the cost - effectiveness of continuing to chase the upward trend was decreasing. It was recommended to control the duration at around 5Y [5].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 波动行情中有韧性，继续下沉挖掘 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 | 报告发布日期 | | --- | 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 建议在 3Y 左右做下沉挖掘：固定收益市场 | 2025-05-27 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 存单利率重回下行时间点或早于预期：固 | 2025-05-26 | | 定收益市场周观察 | | | 降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化？ | 2025-05-22 | 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 美债危机叠加关税冲击，关注黄金板块的 投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 22 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 积极关注稀土等战略金属板块的投资机 | 2025-05-18 | | --- | --- | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 20 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，继续关注钢铁板 | 2025-05-11 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 19 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，积极关注钢铁板 | 2025-04-27 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 17 周） | | 有关分析师的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo with a target price of $135.58 per ADS [5][12]. Core Views - The Q1 performance of Pinduoduo fell short of expectations, with revenue of CNY 956.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10.2%, but below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of CNY 1,016.0 billion [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 was CNY 169.2 billion, a significant decline of 44.7% year-over-year, also missing the consensus estimate of CNY 278.8 billion [9]. - The report highlights that while advertising revenue showed good performance, commission income was under pressure due to increased merchant support policies and adjustments in the Temu business [9]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for Pinduoduo are adjusted to CNY 4,403 billion, CNY 4,883 billion, and CNY 5,250 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are revised to CNY 1,072 billion, CNY 1,317 billion, and CNY 1,499 billion for the same years [3][11]. - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the main e-commerce platform's value at $143.9 billion, the Duoduo grocery business at $5.9 billion, and the Temu business at $42.7 billion [12][14]. Key Financial Metrics - For 2025, the expected operating revenue is CNY 440,349 million, with a year-over-year growth of 12% [10]. - The projected operating profit for 2025 is CNY 112,152 million, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous year [10]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 61.1% and a net margin of 22.1% for 2025 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth with a focus on global expansion, particularly through its Galaxy series [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.36, 1.54, and 1.94 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 20.40 RMB or 22.26 HKD, based on a 15x PE ratio [2] Financial Information - Revenue is projected to grow from 179,204 million RMB in 2023 to 424,141 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18% [4] - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 3,806 million RMB in 2023 to 18,417 million RMB in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 100.8% in 2024 [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,308 million RMB in 2023 to 19,553 million RMB in 2027, despite a projected decline in 2025 [4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 15.3% in 2023 to 16.7% in 2027 [4] - The net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 4.5% to 4.6% from 2025 to 2027 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 6.6% in 2023 to 13.8% in 2027 [4] Sales Performance - In May 2025, the company’s total sales reached 235,200 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.4% [9] - The Galaxy series saw a remarkable sales increase of 273.2% year-on-year in May 2025, with 101,800 units sold [9] - The company is expanding its international presence, with plans to enter new markets in Southeast Asia and Europe [9]

造纸轻工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 本周文化纸价格下跌，包装纸价格上涨 ——造纸产业链数据每周速递（2025/05/30） 核心观点 ⚫ 本周轻工制造行业指数上涨 0.14%，跑赢大盘 1.23pct；造纸子板块下跌 0.52%， 跑赢大盘 0.57pct。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.08%，轻工制造(申万)指数上涨 0.14%，跑赢大盘 1.23pct，在 28 个申万一级行业中位列第 15 位；二级行业中，造 纸子板块下跌 0.52%，跑赢大盘 0.57pct。本周轻工四大子板块按涨幅由大到小分别 为文娱用品、包装印刷、造纸和家具板块，分别上涨 1.87%、1.46%、-0.52%、- 1.08%。 产业链数据跟踪 投资建议与投资标的 | 近期木浆系纸品价格下行：——造纸产业 | 2025-05-18 | | --- | --- | | 链数据每周速递（2025/05/16） | | | 本周木浆系纸品价格下跌：——造纸产业 | 2025-05-11 | | 链数据每周速递（2025/05/11） | | | 本周成品纸价格下跌：——造纸产业链数 | 2025-05-05 | | 据每周速递（202 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 02 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 进入政策观察期：——策略周报 0525 | 2025-05-25 | | --- | --- | | 关税降级提振市场风险偏好：——策略周 | 2025-05-19 | | 报 0518 | | | 逆周期政策提振市场信心：——策略周报 | 2025-05-12 | | 0512 | | | 物来顺应：——策略周报 0505 | 2025-05-06 | | 以稳为主：——策略周报 0428 | 2025-04-28 | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：——策略周报 | 2025-04-17 | | 0414 | | ...

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