业绩短期承压，看好自研转化业务长期成 长性 ——百诚医药 24 年三季报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 事件：公司 24 年前三季度实现营业收入 7.21 亿元，同比增长 1.07%，实现归母净 利润 1.42 亿元，同比-29.69%，实现扣非归母净利润 1.25 亿元，同比-37.74%。其 中，单三季度实现营业收入 1.96 亿元，同比-32.26%，实现归母净利润 0.07 亿元。 ⚫ 基于公司一体化综合服务能力，受托业务稳健发展。按业务类型看，1）受托研发服 务 24H1 实现收入 2.06 亿元，同比+5.77%。新签方面，24 年上半年公司新增订单 7.11 亿元，同比增长 13.38%。公司继续利用上市许可持有人制度的政策红利，加强 与医药研发投资企业合作，此类客户占营业收入比重为 59.53%。2）自研成果转化 业务 24H1 实现收入 2.9 亿元，同比+52.43%。高速增长得益于公司在高端仿制药、 创新药、中药领域的研发优势，公司建立了缓控释制剂、吸入制剂、透皮制剂等特 色技术平台，受托品种以复杂制剂、难仿、首仿为主，技术壁垒较高，有望维持可 观的毛利率水平。3）赛默制药 24H1 对内对外合计取 ...

行业深度调整期，公司尽力保证安全性 核心观点 事件：公司近期发布 2024 年三季报，前三季度实现营业收入 2198.9 亿元，同比下降 24.3%；归母净利润为-179.4 亿元，同比下降 231.7%。 ⚫ 开发业务结算及毛利率下降叠加计提减值影响业绩。前三季度营收 2198.9 亿元， 同比-24.3%，归母净利-179.4 亿元，同比-231.7%，主要系开发业务结算规模同比24%，其贡献收入下降 29%，其结算毛利率（扣土增税前）同比下降 10.2pct 至 8.3%、投资净收益大幅下滑 97%，叠加计提减值损失 74.7 亿元 (较 23 年增加 36 亿元)。行业处于深度调整期，房企普遍为获取现金流压降销售毛利率、在房价下 行趋势下对存货进行计提减值，我们预计公司短期结算毛利率或较难有明显改善。 ⚫ 截至目前，年内公开债全部兑付；持有的经营性资产具有融资空间，短期内公开债 信用风险较低。公司 1-9 月累计销售额 1812 亿，且其同比降幅小于行业及头部房 企，仍保持韧性，同时回款率超 100%。此外，公司开展存量资源盘活，2023 年至 今累计盘活项目 36 个；推进大宗资产交易，1-9 月签 ...

业绩增速小幅提升，个贷增长向好 沪农商行 24Q3 季报点评 核心观点 == ● 营收、利润增速小幅回升，非息收入边际改善。截至 24Q3，沪农商行营收、 PPOP、归母净利润累计同比增速分别较 24H1 提升 0.1pct、1.2pct 和 0.2pct 至 0.3%、-3.3%以及 0.8%。拆分营收来看,净利息收入增速环比下降 0.5pct，或主要 来自息差持续收窄的影响。净手续费收入尽管同比依然负增长，但降幅环比继续收 窄 0.9pct，预计伴随基数走低，后续增速有望延续改善;净其他非息收入增速环比 提升 3.3pct，绝对增速超 30%，继续为营收提供支撑。 ● 规模扩张提速，个贷增长边际向好。截至 24Q3，沪农商行总资产、贷款增速分别环 比提升 0.9pct、0.4pct 至 7.9%、6.0%，其中，个人贷款增速环比改善 1.6pct，贡献 主要增量，地产和消费利好政策支撑下，需求回暖和提前还款的改善有望继续推动 个贷规模增长；对公贷款增速环比小幅下降 0.3pct，重点领域优势依然稳固，科技 型企业贷款余额超 1100 亿元,较年初增幅接近 20%。负债端，截至 24Q3，总负 债、存款增速 ...

Regional Investment Performance - Qinghai's fixed asset investment shows significant government-driven growth, with mining investment up 14.3% and power, heat, gas, and water supply investment up 13.7% in the first three quarters[9] - Ningxia's investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water supply surged by 41.2% in the first three quarters, with water conservancy investment growing by 38.2%[10] - Xinjiang saw a 26.8% year-on-year increase in investment from newly registered projects, with an average project size growth of 56.7%[10] Regional Consumption Trends - Ningxia's retail sales grew by 15.2% in September, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment sales up 33.9% due to trade-in policies[11] - Gansu's retail sales growth outpaced the national average by 0.6 percentage points, with home appliances and audio equipment sales up 29% in the first nine months[12] Macroeconomic Indicators - Industrial added value in September increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with manufacturing up 5.2% and power, gas, and water supply up 10.1%[16] - Exports in the first nine months grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with strong performance in automotive exports, up 20.7%[17] Policy and Risk Factors - The continuation of pro-growth policies is crucial for sustaining macroeconomic recovery, with expectations of further signals from upcoming central economic and political meetings[4] - Risks include potential volatility from U.S. monetary policy and domestic policy implementation uncertainties[21]

10 月多家自主品牌及新势力创销量新高， 继续关注华为产业链相关公司 ——汽车行业周报（1028-1103） 核心观点 ⚫ 新能源车企及部分自主品牌 10 月销量公布，多家车企销量创历史新高。比亚迪 10 月销量达 50.27 万辆，同比增长 66.5%，环比增长 19.8%，在 9 月实现月销首次突 破 40 万辆后，10 月即实现月销首次突破 50 万辆；新势力中，零跑、深蓝、极氪、 小鹏、阿维塔、极狐、岚图 10 月销量分别达 38177 辆、27862 辆、25049 辆、 23917 辆、10056 辆、11122 辆、10157 辆，环比分别增长 13.1%、22.7%、 17.4%、12.0%、121.6%、2.2%、1.6%，7 家车企均创下单月销量历史新高，鸿蒙 智行、埃安、智己等品牌 10 月销量亦实现环比增长；小米 10 月交付量首次突破 2 万辆，预计 11 月将提前完成 10 万台全年交付目标。自主品牌中，吉利、奇瑞 10 月 销量分别达 22.67 万辆、27.22 万辆，同比分别增长 28.0%、35.9%，环比分别增长 12.2%、11.3%，两家车企单月销量均创历史新高。在报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a DCF target valuation of 22.66 RMB [4][9] Core Views - The company reported robust Q3 2024 performance with revenue of 7.262 billion RMB, a YoY increase of 16.89%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 817 million RMB, a YoY surge of 113.97% [2] - Q3 2024 revenue reached 2.658 billion RMB, up 8.68% YoY and 11.02% QoQ, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 267 million RMB, up 32.49% YoY but down 5.34% QoQ [2] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 14.58%, down 2.8 percentage points QoQ, and net margin was 10.03%, down 1.7 percentage points QoQ [3] - The company's upstream pulp layout is becoming more comprehensive, with the Guangxi base's 400,000-ton chemical pulp and PM4 paper machine starting production at the end of Q3, and the Hubei PM3 successfully producing paper in early October [3] Financial Performance - The company's Q3 2024 sales volume increased QoQ, with tonnage profit exceeding 750 RMB/ton, remaining at a historical median level [2] - Investment income from associates and joint ventures (mainly from Xiawang Paper) was approximately 48 million RMB in Q3 2024, down 15% QoQ [2] - The company's revenue growth for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 14.5%, 39.9%, and 18.6%, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 1.079 billion RMB, 1.235 billion RMB, and 1.400 billion RMB [8][9] Industry and Market Position - The company's Guangxi and Hubei pulp and paper integration bases are gradually becoming operational, enhancing the company's upstream and downstream industrial chain and diversifying its product structure [3] - The company's comprehensive competitiveness is increasingly prominent as its pulp and paper integration capacity is realized [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the company's sales volume and paper price assumptions, forecasting net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 at 1.079 billion RMB, 1.235 billion RMB, and 1.400 billion RMB, respectively [4][9] - The DCF target valuation is set at 22.66 RMB, maintaining the "Buy" rating [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.39 RMB [2][3][7] Core Views - The company's 24Q3 revenue was 48.59 billion RMB, up 8.01% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.16 billion RMB, up 0.95% YoY However, 24Q3 revenue and net profit declined by 4.36% and 17.21% YoY respectively [1] - The company outperformed the industry in terms of revenue growth Despite a 10.4%, 12%, and 7.8% YoY decline in gold and jewelry retail sales in July, August, and September respectively, the company's sales were less impacted due to its younger product positioning and better differentiation [1] - The company's gross margin in 24Q3 decreased by 2.3 percentage points YoY, likely due to changes in product and channel structure Sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreased by 0.3, 0.2, and 0 percentage points respectively, while the net profit margin dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 6.1% [1] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with its first overseas store opening in Malaysia's IOI City Mall in August, showing strong sales momentum and enhancing its international presence [1] - The company's differentiated brand and product positioning, catering to younger consumers, and its relatively small sales base provide ample room for future growth, supporting a positive outlook for its medium to long-term prospects [1] Financial Forecasts - The report adjusts the company's EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.38, 0.49, and 0.56 RMB respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.48, 0.59, and 0.70 RMB [2][7] - Revenue is expected to grow by 5.9%, 11.8%, and 10.1% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reaching 6.248 billion, 6.987 billion, and 7.693 billion RMB [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 1.0%, 28.9%, and 15.3% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reaching 337 million, 434 million, and 500 million RMB [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 26.1% in 2023 to 23.6%, 23.3%, and 23.4% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, while the net margin is expected to improve from 5.7% in 2023 to 6.2% and 6.5% in 2025 and 2026 [5] Industry Comparison - The company's valuation is based on a 2025 PE multiple of 11x, in line with peers such as Chow Tai Fook (10x), Chow Sang Sang (9x), and China Gold (12x) [8] - The adjusted average PE multiple for comparable companies is 12x for 2024, 11x for 2025, and 10x for 2026 [8]

小米 SU7 十月交付量超两万台，智能手机 出货量持续同增 核心观点 ⚫ 智能手机出货量持续同比增长，坚持高端化战略，小米 15 系列发布。根据 Canalys 最新数据，全球智能手机出货量 24Q3 同比增长 5%，达到约 3.10 亿部，是自 2021 年以来最强劲的第三季度表现。小米本季度出货量为 4280 万，同比增长 3%，连续 五个季度保持增长，稳居全球第三，占据 14%市场份额。10 月 29 日，小米 15 系 列正式发布，小米 15 配备了高通最新发布的骁龙 8 至尊版旗舰处理器，搭载新一代 翼型环冷散热系统，电池容量提升到 5400mAh，配备澎湃 P3 快充芯片 + 澎湃 G1 电池管理芯片，并才有超声波指纹识别。 ⚫ 智能电动汽车 SU7 十月交付量超两万台，开启城市 NOA 全量推送。据小米汽车官 博消息，小米 SU7 单月交付量在 10 月首次突破 2 万台，预计 11 月将提前完成 10 万台全年交付目标。小米 SU7 OTA 1.4.0 已经开启推送，带来城市 NOA 和澎湃智 能座舱升级等更新。小米城市 NOA 实现"全国都能开"的城市 NOA 城市领航辅 助，车端导航能到， ...

行业压力下保持增长韧性，新品牌培育持 续推进 核心观点 ⚫ 公司发布 24Q3 季报，前三季度实现收入 30 亿，同比增长 7.3%，实现归母净利润 7.62 亿，同比增长 0.55%，其中 24Q3 收入和归母净利润分别同比下降 4.37%和 17.32%。 ⚫ 盈利能力方面，24Q3 毛利率同比下降 2pct 至 73.8%；销售、管理和研发费用率分 别同比增长 0.2、5.2 和-0.3pct，我们推测销售和管理费用率提升主要系加大了对新 品牌的投入力度；24Q3 归母净利率同比下降 4.2pct 至 26.6%。 ⚫ 运营数据方面，截至 24Q3，公司存货周转天数为 304 天，同比增加 8 天 ，24Q3 经营活动现金流净额为 1.19 亿，而去年同期为 3.58 亿。截至 24Q3，公司账面货币 资金为 12.1 亿。 ⚫ 新品牌培育持续推进。公司于 9 月 6 日宣布 Daniel Kearns 为 Cerruti 1881 和 Kent&Curwen 品牌首席创意官，负责该两个品牌的男女装成衣、高级定制、皮具、 配饰和生活方式系列。Daniel Kearns 此前曾在 2016 年至 2021 ...

收入增速稳健，关注应收回款情况 ——分众传媒 24Q3 财报点评 核心观点 【事件】公司披露 24Q3 财报：24Q3 实现营业收入 32.94 亿元(yoy+4.30%)，归母净利 润 14.75 亿元(yoy+7.59%)，扣非归母净利润 13.44 亿元(yoy+4.54%)；年初至报告期末 实现收入 92.61 亿元(yoy+6.76%)，归母净利润 39.68 亿元(yoy+10.16%)，扣非净利润 35.41 亿元(yoy+8.71%)。 ⚫ Q3 收入增速有所放缓，消费品等投放保持韧性。 公司 24Q3 收入同比增长 4.30%，增速相较前几个季度有所放缓，但仍然好于大盘表现。根据国家统计局， 7/8/9 月社零同比增速分别为 2.7%/2.1%/3.2%。根据 CTR 数据，7 月/8 月的广告市 场刊例花费同比分别上涨 3.3%/5.2%。我们判断公司收入增速相对稳健主要系奥运 赛事以及中秋节的广告营销效应，公司作为梯媒龙头，在具有挑战的宏观环境下持 续获得广告主青睐，如消费品在公司的广告投放维持韧性。 ⚫ 投资收益增厚利润，建议关注回款情况。24Q3 公司毛利率为 68.19%，与去年同 ...