Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dividend Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to predict the impact of dividends on index futures contracts by estimating the dividend points based on historical and current financial data of index constituent stocks[7][18][21] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Estimate Net Profit**: Use annual reports, earnings forecasts, and other financial disclosures to estimate the net profit of constituent stocks[19][21] 2. **Calculate Pre-Tax Dividend Total**: Assume a constant dividend payout ratio (dividend amount/net profit) to calculate the pre-tax dividend total for each stock[21][22] 3. **Impact on Index**: - Calculate the dividend yield: $$\text{Dividend Yield} = \frac{\text{Post-Tax Dividend Total}}{\text{Latest Market Value}}$$ - Calculate the dividend points' impact on the index: $$\text{Dividend Points Impact (\%)} = \text{Stock Weight} \times \text{Dividend Yield}$$ - Adjust stock weights using the formula: $$\mathrm{w_{it}={\frac{w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\(1+R\)}}{\sum_{1}^{n}w_{i0}\times\mathrm{\(1+R\)}}}}$$ where \(w_{i0}\) is the initial weight, and \(R\) is the stock's return over the period[22] 4. **Forecast Dividend Impact on Contracts**: - Estimate ex-dividend dates based on historical patterns or announced schedules - Aggregate dividend impacts before the contract's settlement date to calculate the total dividend points and percentage impact on the futures contract[23][24][26] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to quantify dividend impacts, but its accuracy depends on assumptions about dividend payout ratios and ex-dividend dates[18][21][24] 2. Model Name: Futures Pricing Model with Discrete Dividends - **Model Construction Idea**: This model calculates the theoretical price of index futures by incorporating the present value of discrete dividend distributions during the contract period[27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assume the following parameters: - \(F_t\): Futures price at time \(t\) - \(S_t\): Spot price at time \(t\) - \(D\): Present value of dividends during the contract period - \(r\): Risk-free rate over the contract period 2. Calculate the present value of dividends: $$\mathbf{D}=\sum_{\mathrm{i=1}}^{\mathrm{m}}\mathbf{D}_{\mathrm{i}}\,/(1+\phi)$$ where \(\phi\) is the risk-free rate for the interval between dividend payments[27] 3. Derive the futures price using the no-arbitrage pricing formula: $$F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r)$$[27] - **Model Evaluation**: This model is effective for scenarios with discrete dividend distributions but may require adjustments for continuous dividend flows or irregular dividend schedules[27] 3. Model Name: Futures Pricing Model with Continuous Dividends - **Model Construction Idea**: This model assumes dividends are distributed continuously and uniformly over the contract period, simplifying the pricing process[28] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assume the following parameters: - \(F_t\): Futures price at time \(t\) - \(S_t\): Spot price at time \(t\) - \(d\): Annualized dividend yield - \(r\): Annualized risk-free rate - \(T-t\): Time to maturity 2. Derive the theoretical futures price: $$F_t = S_t e^{(r-d)(T-t)}$$[28] - **Model Evaluation**: This model is suitable for markets with frequent and evenly distributed dividends but may oversimplify real-world scenarios with irregular dividend patterns[28] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Dividend Forecast Model - **Dividend Points Prediction for August Contracts**: - **SSE 50 (IH)**: 3.62 points - **CSI 300 (IF)**: 7.76 points - **CSI 500 (IC)**: 9.18 points - **CSI 1000 (IM)**: 6.25 points[3][8][10] - **Annualized Hedging Costs (Excluding Dividends)**: - **SSE 50 (IH)**: -3.44% - **CSI 300 (IF)**: -1.03% - **CSI 500 (IC)**: 7.79% - **CSI 1000 (IM)**: 11.11%[3][8][10] 2. Futures Pricing Model with Discrete Dividends - **Remaining Dividend Impact on August Contracts**: - **SSE 50 (IH)**: 0.13% - **CSI 300 (IF)**: 0.19% - **CSI 500 (IC)**: 0.15% - **CSI 1000 (IM)**: 0.10%[11][18][24] 3. Futures Pricing Model with Continuous Dividends - **Not explicitly tested in the report** --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Dividend Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dividend yield of index constituent stocks to assess their contribution to the overall index dividend impact[22] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the dividend yield for each stock: $$\text{Dividend Yield} = \frac{\text{Post-Tax Dividend Total}}{\text{Latest Market Value}}$$ 2. Aggregate the weighted dividend yields of all constituent stocks to determine the index-level dividend yield[22] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a direct measure of dividend contributions but may be sensitive to changes in stock weights and market values[22] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Dividend Yield Factor - **Dividend Yield Impact on August Contracts**: - **SSE 50 (IH)**: 3.62 points - **CSI 300 (IF)**: 7.76 points - **CSI 500 (IC)**: 9.18 points - **CSI 1000 (IM)**: 6.25 points[3][8][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [5][8] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the dual drivers of smelting and precious metals, leading to significant profit growth and potential for dividends in the future [2][7] - The forecasted earnings per share for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.02, 1.15, and 1.32 yuan, respectively, up from previous estimates of 0.93, 1.03, and 1.15 yuan [3][8] - The target price based on a 16X PE valuation for comparable companies is set at 16.32 yuan [3][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 19,406 million, 19,759 million, 22,583 million, 23,814 million, and 25,281 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.9%, 1.8%, 14.3%, 5.5%, and 6.2% respectively [4][11] - Operating profit is expected to grow from 755 million in 2023A to 1,732 million in 2027E, with growth rates of 14.7%, 28.9%, 38.0%, 12.1%, and 15.1% [4][11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 611 million in 2023A to 1,416 million in 2027E, with growth rates of 24.0%, 28.7%, 39.0%, 12.7%, and 15.0% [4][11] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 8.5% in 2023A to 10.9% in 2027E, while the net margin is projected to rise from 3.1% to 5.6% over the same period [4][11] Market Context - The company is positioned in the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically focusing on zinc and precious metals [5][7] - The company has a significant smelting capacity of 680,000 tons of zinc products, which is expected to support profit growth amid rising processing fees [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the industry, particularly highlighting the demand for new drugs for rosacea [9][25]. Core Insights - There is a significant demand for new drugs to treat rosacea, with an estimated prevalence of 3.48% in China, translating to approximately 49 million patients [9][13]. - The current clinical treatment options for rosacea are limited, with many recommended drugs not available in China, creating a pressing need for safe and effective innovative products [4][25]. - CKBA shows potential as a treatment for rosacea, with a clinical pipeline that is currently sparse, indicating a favorable competitive landscape for future development [9][19][23]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Demand for New Drugs - Rosacea is a chronic inflammatory disease affecting the central face, with a high psychological burden on patients, leading to a strong desire for treatment [13]. - A survey indicated that 95.3% of patients express a need for treatment, highlighting the urgency for new therapeutic options [13]. Section 2: CKBA Potential - CKBA has been shown to strongly inhibit the differentiation of Th17 cells, which are implicated in the pathogenesis of rosacea, suggesting its potential efficacy across various clinical manifestations of the disease [19][23]. - The global pipeline for rosacea treatments is limited, with only six active candidates since 2020, and domestic development is nearly non-existent [23]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Given the high demand and limited treatment options, the report recommends focusing on companies like 泰恩康 (Tainkang) for potential investment opportunities in the rosacea treatment space [4][25].

Group 1: Tariff Impact and Market Sentiment - The second round of tariffs is expected to be implemented in July-August, but it is unlikely to reverse the current improvement in market risk appetite[6] - The market perceives the new tariffs as pressure tactics before agreement deadlines, with delayed economic transmission effects[11] - Despite tariff increases, the market remains resilient, driven by micro-level trading and positive earnings guidance from the upcoming earnings season[13] Group 2: Economic Data and Future Outlook - Economic data will be crucial in determining market direction, with a key observation window in Q3 mid to Q4[18] - The economic impact of tariffs may not fully materialize until Q4, with initial effects from the first round of tariffs expected to show in Q3 data[18] - A significant slowdown in economic growth is anticipated due to tariffs, but inflation risks are expected to remain contained[21] Group 3: Market Performance and Indicators - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced slight declines of 0.31% and 0.08% respectively during the week of July 5-12, 2025[22] - The NFIB small business optimism index fell from 98.8 to 98.6, indicating concerns over high inventory levels affecting business confidence[27] - The technology sector continues to lead market performance, reflecting a recovery in earnings expectations post-tariff easing[13]

——机器人产业跟踪 核心观点 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国产机器人有望引领全球产业发展 | 杨震 | 021-63325888*6090 | | --- | --- | | | yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 | | 丁昊 | dinghao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080002 | | 量产积极信号频现，海内外共振有望开启 | 2025-07-11 | | --- | --- | | 新行情：——机器人产业跟踪 | | | 龙头继续加码智能物流，看好无人叉车加 | 2025-07-08 | | 速产业化：——无人叉车系列报告 | | | 人形机器人将加速落地，零部件估值有望 | 2025-07-06 | | 提升：——机器人产业跟踪 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 投资建议与投资标的 国产人形机器人正加速突破，有 ...

报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 18 日 | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | --- | --- | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 彭楚榕 | pengchurong@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080005 | | 戴思崴 | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | 东方战略观察：伊以冲突走向缓和，全球 风险偏好提升 2025-06-28 东方战略周观察：伊以地缘冲 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shandong Steel [5][10] Core Views - The company has successfully turned losses into profits in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in gross margin and net profit compared to previous quarters [9] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a target to lower the cost per ton of steel by over 60 yuan in the first half of 2025 [9] - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from favorable industry conditions and cost reductions, leading to sustained profit growth [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for the company's earnings per share for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.77, 1.85, and 1.94 yuan respectively, with a target price of 1.77 yuan based on a 1X PB valuation [3][10] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 25 million yuan in 2025, recovering from losses in previous years [4][10] - The report highlights a projected increase in net profit to 845 million yuan in 2026 and 1.464 billion yuan in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [4][10]

Group 1: Export Performance - June exports showed a slight year-on-year increase of 5.8%, up from 4.8%, exceeding market expectations of 3.2%[4] - Direct "export grabbing" to the U.S. was a major driver in June, with exports to the U.S. seeing a reduced year-on-year decline of -16.1%, compared to -34.5% previously[4] - Consumer goods exports to the U.S. rebounded significantly, as over 45% of U.S. imports from China are consumer products[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The "export grabbing" effect is nearing its end, leading to potential increased pressure on exports in the second half of the year[4] - Indirect trade through regions like South Korea and Latin America has begun to cool, with June's year-on-year export growth to these regions at -6.7% and -2.1% respectively[4] - The expiration of tariff exemptions on July 9 is expected to further impact export growth rates for intermediate goods[4] Group 3: Sector Insights - High-tech sectors are likely to maintain growth despite challenges, with June exports of automobiles and ships showing year-on-year increases of 8.2% and 18.6% respectively[4] - The ongoing tight supply chain connections between China, Japan, and South Korea indicate strong foreign investment in "export grabbing" activities[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is focusing on high-quality development in the new Olympic cycle, despite short-term revenue slowdown [1] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a forecast for 2027, expecting EPS of 0.92, 1.05, and 1.20 RMB respectively [2][8] - The target price is set at 20.07 HKD, based on a 20x valuation for 2025 [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,598 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [2] - Operating profit is expected to decline to 4,256 million RMB in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 21.4% year-on-year [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 3,187 million RMB for 2023, down 21.6% year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates a net decrease of approximately 10 direct stores and an increase of around 40 franchise stores in 2025 [7] - The gross margin is expected to be 48.4% in 2023, with a slight increase to 49.1% by 2027 [2][11] - The net profit margin is projected to decline from 11.5% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2025, before recovering to 9.5% in 2027 [2][11] Market and Competitive Landscape - The retail environment is becoming increasingly competitive, with intensified discounting pressures from international brands [7] - The company is expected to increase marketing expenditures in the second half of 2025 and throughout 2026 to support sustainable growth [7] - The major shareholder has shown confidence in the company's long-term prospects by increasing their stake by approximately 1.11% [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The niche DRAM market is undergoing a supply-demand reshaping, driven by AI and domestic substitution opportunities, indicating a sustained market outlook [3][22] - The niche DRAM market is not only a stock market but also a growth market, with the market size expected to grow from $8.5 billion in 2024 to $12.2 billion in 2026 [8][18] - The supply gap for DDR4 and LPDDR4 is expected to persist, benefiting Tier 2 suppliers like Zhaoyi Innovation [21][22] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended companies to focus on include Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng, Fudan Microelectronics, and others [3][22] Market Dynamics - The demand for DDR4 and LPDDR4 remains stable across various sectors, including consumer electronics, industrial, and automotive markets [8][12] - The contract prices for DDR4 are expected to continue rising, with projected increases of 38%-43% in the PC market and 40%-45% in the consumer market for Q3 [12][15] - NAND product prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with increases of 17.4% and 15.6% for specific NAND Flash products since June [9][12] Supply Chain Insights - Major manufacturers are exiting the DDR4 and LPDDR4 markets, leading to a supply shortage that is expected to drive prices up [21][22] - The ongoing production cuts by Micron are anticipated to exacerbate the LPDDR4 shortage, with price increases expected [12][17] Market Growth Projections - The niche DRAM market is projected to grow significantly, with AI applications driving demand for higher data processing and storage capabilities [18][19] - The overall market for niche DRAM is expected to see a substantial increase in demand due to advancements in technology and new application scenarios [18][19]