盈利预测与投资建议 邮储银行 601658.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 成本收入比优化，对公业务增长较快 ——邮储银行 25Q1 季报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 根据 25Q1 财报数据，上调信贷增速、非息收入增速假设，下调息差假设，预测公司 25/26/27 年归母净利润同比增速为 0.2%/1.3%/1.7%， BVPS 为 8.96/9.57/10.18 元 （原预测值分别为 8.97/9.59/10.24 元），当前股价对应 25/26/27 年 PB 为 0.60X/0.56X/0.53X。相比可比公司维持 20%的估值溢价，对应 25 年 0.80 倍 PB，目 标价 7.17 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 342,507 | 348,775 | 352,082 | 357,736 | 367,162 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.3 ...

商誉减值致 24 年利润承压，25Q1 表现超 预期 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报、25 年一季报，对 25-26 年下调收入、上调毛利率。我们预测公司 25-27年每股收益分别为 1.73、1.97、2.17元（原预测 25-26年为 1.79、1.88元）。 结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 21 倍市盈率，对应 目标价为 36.33 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期、原奶价格持续回落导致竞争加剧、减值损失缩窄幅度不 及预期、食品安全事件风险。 （此处简单列示风险，正文需单独对风险提示详细展开描述） 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 125,758 | 115,393 | 121,413 | 128,328 | 137,195 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.5% | -8.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 11,873 | 1 ...

ESG 研究 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 05 日 | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | --- | --- | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 赵越峰 | 021-63325888*7507 | | | zhaoyuefeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860513060001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPU173 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 首个城市绿证绿电碳业务服务中心在杭成 | 2025-04-27 | | --- | --- | | 立：——ESG 企业动态双周报第三十期 | | | 加快建设农业强国，推进农业全面绿色转 | 2025-04-20 | | 型：——东方证券 ESG 双周报第六十八期 | | | 财政部成功发行首笔人民币绿色主权债 | 2025-04-13 | | ...

首批科创综指增强策略 ETF 获批，指 数公司下调指数许可使用费 金融工程 | 动态跟踪 场内基金动态：截止 2025 年 4 月 30 日，规模最大的 ETF 跟踪标的为沪深 300，总 规模 10359.15 亿元，其次为中证 A500 规模 2113.36 亿元、上证 50 规模 1706.16 亿 元，股票宽基指数中沪深 300、上证 50、中证 A500 规模最大，股票非宽基指数中 证券公司、纳斯达克 100、恒生科技规模最大，纳斯达克 100 是规模最大的境外股 票指数，SGE黄金 9999是规模最大的商品指数。上周，中证短融资金净流入最多为 45.17 亿元，其次，中证 A500 净流出最多为-36.18 亿元；年初至今，沪深 300 净流 入最多 705.08 亿，SGE 黄金 9999 其次，中证 A500 净流出最多-479.49 亿元。 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 05 日 | | | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究结论 | | 1111111111 | 执业证书编号 ...

酒鬼酒 000799.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 动销疲软，静待消费环境回暖 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 根据年报以及一季报，对 25-26 年下调收入、毛利率，上调费用率。 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 0.53、0.62、0.96 元（原预测为 25-26 年 2.13、2.58 元）。考虑到公司现金流充足，我们采用 FCFF 估值法，权益价值为 149 亿元，对 应目标价 45.89 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：消费升级不及预期、内参酒鬼销售不及预期、费用投入居高导致利润不及 预期、食品安全事件风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,830 | 1,423 | 1,248 | 1,318 | 1,572 | | 同比增长 (%) | -30.1% | -49.7% | -12.3% | 5.6% | 19.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 726 | 16 | 179 | 219 | 354 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported strong profit performance in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit by 110% year-on-year, reaching 320 million yuan [1] - The company is a leading publishing and distribution enterprise in Guangdong Province, with stable growth in core businesses such as educational materials and general books, while educational services are expected to become another growth point [2] - The company has announced a record high dividend payout ratio of 61%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, down 53.5% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 9.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, down 36.9% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 110% year-on-year [1][2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.15 billion yuan, 1.19 billion yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.28 yuan, 1.33 yuan, and 1.39 yuan [2] - The target price for 2025 is set at 17.92 yuan, based on a P/E ratio of 14 times [2] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 30, 2025, was 16.49 yuan, with a 52-week high of 17.36 yuan and a low of 10.66 yuan [3] - The company has shown strong relative performance against the market, with a 1-week return of 5.5% and a 1-month return of 3.13% [4]

业绩暂时承压，期待半导体业务提速 ——石英股份 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 调整 2025-2027 年归母净利润至 5.14、7.98、12.42 亿元（原预测 2025 年为 69.43 亿元），主要对预测期高纯石英砂的单价和销量调整。根据可比公司 2025 年平均 37X PE 计算，对应目标价 35.15 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7,184 | 1,210 | 1,618 | 2,173 | 3,011 | | 同比增长 (%) | 258.5% | -83.2% | 33.7% | 34.3% | 38.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5,958 | 395 | 588 | 917 | 1,436 | | 同比增长 (%) | 381.7% | -93.4% | 48.9% | 56.1% | 56.5% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 5, ...

酒鬼酒 000799.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 动销疲软，静待消费环境回暖 风险提示：消费升级不及预期、内参酒鬼销售不及预期、费用投入居高导致利润不及 预期、食品安全事件风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,830 | 1,423 | 1,248 | 1,318 | 1,572 | | 同比增长 (%) | -30.1% | -49.7% | -12.3% | 5.6% | 19.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 726 | 16 | 179 | 219 | 354 | | 同比增长 (%) | -48.9% | -97.7% | 990.2% | 22.9% | 61.2% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 548 | 12 | 171 | 203 | 312 | | 同比增长 (%) | -47.8% | -97.7% | 1272.7% | 18.1% | 54.0% | | 每股收益（元） | 1.69 | ...

电力设备及新能源行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 25Q1 风电行业招标增长，价格企稳 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 陆风周期底部回暖，静待量价修复。建议关注风电产业链复苏金风科技(002202， 未评级)、明阳智能(601615，未评级)、运达股份(300772，未评级)、日月股份 (603218，未评级)、三一重能(688349，未评级)、金雷股份(300443，未评级)等； 海风周期拐点蓄势待发，静待海风边际改善。建议关注风电产业链中海风相关度较 高环节东 方电缆(603606 ，未评级) 、振江 股份(603507，买入) 、起帆 电缆 (605222，买入)、大金重工(002487，未评级)等。 风险提示 能源结构转型速度不及预期、风电需求不及预期、竞争激烈程度增加、地缘风险、汇率 风险。 asdasd 国家/地区 中国 行业 电力设备及新能源行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 顾高臣 | 021-63325888*6119 | | --- | --- | | | gugaochen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S086052008 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported strong profit performance in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit by 110% year-on-year, reaching 320 million yuan [1] - The company is a leading publishing and distribution enterprise in Guangdong Province, with stable growth in core businesses such as educational materials and general books, while educational services are expected to become another growth driver [2] - The company has announced a record high dividend payout ratio of 61%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, down 53.5% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 9.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, down 36.9% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 2.11 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 110% year-on-year [1][2] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.15 billion yuan, 1.19 billion yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.28, 1.33, and 1.39 yuan [2] - The estimated operating revenue for 2025 is projected to be 9.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [9] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 17.92 yuan, based on a P/E ratio of 14 times for 2025 [2] - The company's current stock price is 16.49 yuan, with a market capitalization of 14.77 billion yuan [3]