半导体、核工业、医药领域需求广阔，看好离子交换树脂龙头 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 63 期（20250514） 要点 在半导体领域，离子交换树脂主要应用于超纯水生产装置。在电子元器件的 生产过程中无论是清洗用水，还是溶液、浆料，都需要使用超纯水。集成电 路的生产工艺是蚀刻和清洗反复进行，每生产一片集成块需要消耗超纯水 3~5 升，平均 6 英寸的晶片需消耗 1.2 吨的超纯水。随着半导体技术的发 展，元器件尺寸的缩小和精细程度的提高，对超纯水的水质要求日趋严格。 离子交换树脂应用于超纯水生产中的 EDI 装置或 CDI 装置中，可获得电阻率 为 18MΩ/cm 的 I 级电子级超纯水。 在核工业领域，离子交换树脂主要用于反应堆一回路和二回路的给水和水处 理系统。核级树脂主要用于反应堆一回路和二回路的给水和水处理系统。向 蒸汽发生器二回路提供质量可靠的超纯水是保证其稳定运行以及提供品质合 格蒸汽的关键技术，核级超纯水可以降低二回路侧的污垢沉积，降低一回路 向二回路传热的热阻，提高蒸汽产量，同时超纯水可以减少污垢在发电机透 平叶片上的沉积。另外，应用于核电站一回路水处理系统的核级树脂必须具 备很高的再生转型率、 ...

1-4 月核心 30 城新房成交均价累计同比+5%，10 城二手房均价同比+2% ——光大核心城市房地产销售跟踪（2025 年 4 月） 要点 新房：1-4 月光大核心 30 城住宅成交面积同比+2%，成交均价同比+5%。 1）2025 年 4 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交面积为 1,086 万㎡， 同比-5.2%，环比-25.1%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交面积 374 万㎡，同比+8.3%， 环比-18.3%，余下二线 24 城成交面积 712 万㎡，同比-11.0%，环比-28.2%。 2）2025 年 1-4 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交面积为 4,376 万㎡， 同比+2.3%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交面积 1,435 万㎡，同比+14.2%，余下二 线 24 城成交面积 2,941 万㎡，同比-2.7%。 2025 年 5 月 15 日 行业研究 3）2025 年 1-4 月，光大核心 30 城商品住宅(不含保障)成交均价为 24,553 元/ ㎡，同比+4.8%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交均价 40,461 元/㎡，同比+0.2%，余 下二线 24 城成交均价为 16, ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 is under pressure, with a revenue decline of 6.3% year-on-year to 42.12 billion yuan in 2024 and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion yuan, compared to a net profit of 150 million yuan in 2023 [1][2] - The company is facing operational difficulties, with total vehicle sales in 2024 down 7.4% year-on-year to 403,000 units, driven by a significant decline in passenger vehicle sales [2] - The launch of the new model, Zun Jie S800, in collaboration with Huawei is a focal point, with pre-orders showing promising initial demand [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 42.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.3% year-on-year, and a net loss of 1.78 billion yuan, a significant drop from the previous year's profit [1] - Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 9.8 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year, with a net loss of 220 million yuan [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 10.5%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 10.0%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Sales and Market Position - Total vehicle sales in 2024 were 403,000 units, a decline of 7.4% year-on-year, with passenger vehicle sales down 16.6% to 167,000 units [2] - The new model Zun Jie S800 has received 2,108 pre-orders within 48 hours of its announcement, indicating strong market interest [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on the Zun Jie S800's market performance post-launch and the allocation of resources from Huawei's distribution channels [3] - Profitability is expected to improve in 2026 with the gradual production of new platform models from Volkswagen and subsequent models from Zun Jie [3]

2025 年 5 月 15 日 总量研究 我国哪些产品可以无惧关税压力？ ——《见微知著》第二十二篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513066 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：周可 执业证书编号：S0930524120001 021-52523677 zhouke@ebscn.com 相关研报 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇（2025-05-12） 出口为何展现韧性？——2025年4月进出口 数据点评（2025-05-10） 关税压力将如何扰动出口？——2025年3月 进出口数据点评（2025-04-14） 要点 核心观点： 当前美国对自华进口关税税率整体水平大概在 47.1%-49.9%。在新关税水平下，我 国产品仍然具备较强的价格优势。美自华进口单价低于自全世界（除中国外）进口 单价的产品种类占比小幅下降 7.9 个百分点至 54.5%。毛毯、动植物油脂、人造纤 维针织品、吸尘器、椅子、手套、壁挂式空调、鞋靴、运动用品、床上用品等细分 产品的价格优势或面临挑战。 由于前期积压订单释放以及美国进入圣诞备货 ...

2025 年 5 月 15 日 行业研究 半导体、核工业、医药领域需求广阔，看好离子交换树脂龙头 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 63 期（20250514） 要点 在半导体领域，离子交换树脂主要应用于超纯水生产装置。在电子元器件的 生产过程中无论是清洗用水，还是溶液、浆料，都需要使用超纯水。集成电 路的生产工艺是蚀刻和清洗反复进行，每生产一片集成块需要消耗超纯水 3~5 升，平均 6 英寸的晶片需消耗 1.2 吨的超纯水。随着半导体技术的发 展，元器件尺寸的缩小和精细程度的提高，对超纯水的水质要求日趋严格。 离子交换树脂应用于超纯水生产中的 EDI 装置或 CDI 装置中，可获得电阻率 为 18MΩ/cm 的 I 级电子级超纯水。 在核工业领域，离子交换树脂主要用于反应堆一回路和二回路的给水和水处 理系统。核级树脂主要用于反应堆一回路和二回路的给水和水处理系统。向 蒸汽发生器二回路提供质量可靠的超纯水是保证其稳定运行以及提供品质合 格蒸汽的关键技术，核级超纯水可以降低二回路侧的污垢沉积，降低一回路 向二回路传热的热阻，提高蒸汽产量，同时超纯水可以减少污垢在发电机透 平叶片上的沉积。另外，应用于核电站一回路水处理 ...

2025 年 5 月 15 日 公司研究 依托中国石油平台优势，天然气终端业务高质量发展可期 ——昆仑能源（0135.HK）首次覆盖报告 要点 中国石油旗下天然气终端业务公司，盈利修复分红提升。公司是中国石油旗 下唯一从事天然气终端销售和综合利用的平台企业，业务涵盖城市燃气、LNG 工厂、LNG 接收站等，2024 年公司实现归母净利润 60 亿元，同比增长 4.9%。 公司制定派息率提升计划，2024 年派息率达到 45%。公司聚焦天然气销售主 业，在天然气需求中长期增长的趋势下，公司毛差有望持续修复，业绩和估值 有望持续上行。 天然气销售市场开拓大力推进，中国石油优质气源构筑资源端优势。公司天 然气销售业务保持良好的成长性，2016-2024 年，公司天然气销售业务营收 CAGR 为 13.7%，税前利润 CAGR 为 15.7%。公司中西部地区城燃项目占比 较高，持续开拓零售气市场，其中工业用气增长迅速，2018-2024 年公司工 业用气销售量 CAGR 为 24.35%。控股股东中国石油天然气股份公司为公司提 供可靠稳定的资源保障，助力公司有效执行价格联动长效机制，公司 24 年购 气成本为 2.4 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Yongxin Co., Ltd. (002014.SZ) [3][13] Core Viewpoints - Yongxin Co., Ltd. is a leading domestic soft plastic packaging company with a long-term stable growth in performance, projecting a revenue CAGR of 7.1% and a net profit CAGR of 12.9% from 2018 to 2024 [2][22] - The company operates in a billion-dollar market, with the domestic plastic soft packaging market reaching approximately 120.5 billion RMB (17.22 billion USD) in 2023, and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2% from 2024 to 2027 [2][69] - The company has four key highlights that underscore its long-term investment value: strong demand linked to essential consumer goods, a rising gross margin due to vertical integration and product innovation, robust profitability metrics, and a solid dividend policy with an average payout ratio exceeding 70% since its listing [2][3][14] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yongxin Co., Ltd. specializes in high-tech products such as vacuum coating, multifunctional films, and composite packaging materials, with a production layout centered in Huangshan and extending to Guangdong, Hebei, and Shaanxi [22][23] - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with 2023 revenue reaching 3.379 billion RMB, and a projected revenue of 4.541 billion RMB by 2027 [7][43] Market Size and Industry Concentration - The plastic soft packaging market is characterized by stable long-term demand, with advantages such as low cost and practicality leading to its replacement of other packaging forms [2][64] - The market is expected to see increased concentration as the demand for safety, environmental protection, and innovation rises, favoring leading companies [2][64] Investment Highlights - The company benefits from a diversified customer base across essential sectors such as food, pharmaceuticals, and daily chemicals, providing a degree of demand stability [2][14] - The gross margin is expected to rise due to the company's focus on high-margin overseas business and product innovation [2][10] - The company's return on equity (ROE) and net cash ratio are positioned favorably within the industry, indicating strong profitability [2][14] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 511 million RMB, 569 million RMB, and 638 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.83, 0.93, and 1.04 RMB [3][7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 13, 12, and 10 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [3][7] Catalysts for Stock Price Increase - Short-term catalysts include the current downtrend in domestic interest rates, making high-dividend stocks more attractive [12] - Long-term catalysts involve the ongoing shift towards soft plastic packaging and the trend towards recyclable and renewable materials, which will likely benefit leading companies [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy (0135.HK) [6]. Core Views - Kunlun Energy, as a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation, is positioned to benefit from the high-quality development of its natural gas terminal business, with a projected net profit of 6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [1][4]. - The company aims to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% by 2024, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1][46]. - The natural gas sales business is expected to maintain strong growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.7% in revenue from 2016 to 2024, supported by a stable supply of high-quality gas from its parent company [2][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Kunlun Energy is the largest natural gas terminal utilization enterprise in China, focusing on natural gas sales and comprehensive utilization, with operations covering 28 provinces and municipalities by the end of 2024 [17][26]. - The company achieved a natural gas sales volume of 54.2 billion cubic meters in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [17][26]. 2. Business Development - The natural gas sales business is expanding, with a significant focus on industrial gas sales, which is projected to grow at a CAGR of 24.35% from 2018 to 2024 [2][58]. - The company has established two LNG receiving stations with a total unloading capacity of 13 million tons per year, contributing a pre-tax profit of 3.577 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit margin of 75% [3][72]. 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 6.649 billion yuan, 7.124 billion yuan, and 7.598 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.77 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.88 yuan [4][5]. - The report highlights a stable financial structure with a projected revenue of 187.046 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.46% [5][28]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Kunlun Energy benefits from a strong resource supply from its parent company, which allows it to maintain a competitive edge in purchasing costs compared to other gas companies [2][64]. - The company is gradually transitioning from upstream oil exploration to focus on natural gas terminal utilization, reducing its cyclical exposure [3][89].

- The CSI 2000 Index reflects the overall performance of A-share small and micro-cap listed companies, with a significant small and micro-cap style, superior sales gross margin compared to other small-cap indices, high R&D investment ratio, strong potential growth momentum, and short-term elasticity[2][3][35] - The CSI 2000 Index was officially released on August 11, 2023, with a base date of December 31, 2013, and a base point of 1000[35] - The CSI 2000 Index excludes constituents of the CSI 800 and CSI 1000 indices, and selects 2000 securities with smaller market capitalization and better liquidity as index samples[35] - The CSI 2000 Index has a significant small and micro-cap style, with most constituent stocks having a free float market capitalization of less than 5 billion yuan, accounting for 82.89% of the total weight[37] - The CSI 2000 Index has a strong technology manufacturing attribute, with high holdings in mechanical equipment, electronics, and computer fields[43] - The CSI 2000 Index's overall revenue is stable, with a sales gross margin of 17.62% in Q1 2025, higher than other small-cap indices[51][54] - The CSI 2000 Index's price-to-book ratio is 2.37 times, with a 2025 consensus net profit growth rate of 103.07%[56][57] - The CSI 2000 Index's R&D expenses and their proportion have steadily increased, injecting innovative momentum into performance growth[60][61] - The CSI 2000 Index has outperformed other representative indices in both long and short terms, with a five-year cumulative return of 34.87% and a one-year annualized return of 18.91%[69][72][74]

分析师：高瑞东 2025 年 5 月 15 日 总量研究 信贷增长的非常规性扰动 ——2025 年 4 月金融数据点评 作者 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：王佳雯 执业证书编号：S0930524010001 021-52523870 wangjiawen@ebscn.com 要点 事件：2025 年 5 月 14 日，中国人民银行公布 2025 年 4 月货币金融数据：社 融新增 1.16 万亿元，前值为新增 5.89 万亿元；社融存量同比增速为 8.7%，前 值为 8.4%；人民币贷款新增 2800 亿元，前值为新增 3.64 万亿元；M1 同比增 速为 1.5%，前值为 1.6%。 核心观点： 4 月份金融数据呈现"社融强+信贷弱"的组合。财政持续靠前发力，社融增速 进一步加快，较为符合预期。而信贷偏弱主要是受季节性、清欠加快、关税冲 击等非常规因素扰动。向前看，一揽子金融政策将加快落实，配合二季度财政 发力，而信贷的非常规扰动因素可能弱化，预计主要金融指标有望平稳向好。 一、信贷增长存在非常规扰动 2025 年 5 ...