1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the secondary - market prices of publicly - offered REITs in China showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, with the secondary - market prices of both equity - type REITs and franchise - type REITs rising, and the equity - type REITs having a larger increase. The trading enthusiasm in the REITs market increased compared to the previous month, and the total net inflow of the main funds reached 588.19 million yuan. The total amount of block trades also increased compared to the previous month [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Listed Projects - As of January 31, 2026, there were 78 publicly - offered REITs products in China, with a total issuance scale of 20.1749 billion yuan (excluding expansion and fundraising). Among them, the transportation infrastructure - type REITs had the largest issuance scale of 6.8771 billion yuan, followed by the park infrastructure - type REITs with a scale of 3.2933 billion yuan. No new REITs products were listed in January 2026 [11][12]. 3.1.2 Projects to be Listed - As of January 31, 2026, there were 22 REITs in the state of being to be listed, including 20 initial - offering REITs and 2 REITs to be expanded and raised. In January, the project status of AVIC Beijing Changbao Rental Housing Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering) and CICC Xiamen Torch Industrial Park Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering) was updated to "inquired". Additionally, 8 commercial real - estate REITs were declared [15]. 3.2 Secondary - Market Performance 3.2.1 Price Trend - **At the large - asset level**: From January 1 to January 31, 2026, the secondary - market prices of publicly - offered REITs in China showed a fluctuating upward trend. The CSI REITs (closing) and CSI REITs total return index closed at 809.56 and 1052.42 respectively, with monthly returns of 3.98% and 4.22%. The weighted REITs index had a monthly return of 4.83%. Compared with other major asset classes, the return of REITs was 4.83%, ranking behind gold, crude oil, convertible bonds, and A - shares, but ahead of US stocks and pure bonds [17]. - **At the underlying - asset level**: Both equity - type REITs and franchise - type REITs saw price increases, with the equity - type REITs having a larger increase. The return of equity - type REITs was 5.7%, and that of franchise - type REITs was 3.42%. Among different underlying - asset types, water - conservancy facilities - type REITs had the largest increase this month. The underlying - asset categories with better returns this month were water - conservancy facilities, new - type infrastructure, and consumption, with returns of 9.7%, 8.38%, and 7.6% respectively [21][23]. - **At the single - REIT level**: Among the publicly - offered REITs this month, 74 rose, 1 remained the same as last month, and 3 fell. The top three in terms of increase were Huaan Bailian Consumption REIT, Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial REIT, and CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT, with increases of 17.43%, 13.68%, and 13.62% respectively. The top three in terms of decrease were E Fund Guangzhou Development Zone High - tech Industrial Park REIT, Huaxia Nanjing Transportation Expressway REIT, and Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT, with decreases of 3.17%, 1.46%, and 0.07% respectively [25]. 3.2.2 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying - asset level**: The trading volume of publicly - offered REITs this month increased compared to last month, and the new - type infrastructure - type REITs led in the average daily turnover rate during the period. As of January 30, the total trading volume of the 78 listed REITs within the month was 36.38 billion yuan, and the average daily turnover rate during the period was 0.62%. In terms of trading volume, the top three REITs categories were transportation infrastructure, consumption infrastructure, and park infrastructure, with trading volumes of 7.39 billion, 6.52 billion, and 6.42 billion yuan respectively. In terms of turnover rate, the top three REITs categories in the average daily turnover rate during the period were new - type infrastructure, water - conservancy facilities, and municipal facilities, with rates of 0.96%, 0.84%, and 0.67% respectively [28]. - **At the single - REIT level**: The trading volume and turnover rate of single REITs continued to show differentiation. In terms of trading volume, the top three within the month were Bosera Shekou Industrial Park REIT, CICC Puluosi REIT, and Huaxia Hefei High - tech REIT, with trading volumes of 122 million, 121 million, and 120 million shares respectively. In terms of trading amount, the top three within the month were Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, and CICC Puluosi REIT, with trading amounts of 819 million, 433 million, and 398 million yuan respectively. In terms of turnover rate, the top three within the month were CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT, AVIC Yishang Warehouse Logistics REIT, and Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT, with turnover rates of 35.05%, 28.66%, and 25.80% respectively [30]. 3.2.3 Main - Fund Net Inflow and Block - Trade Situation - **Main - fund net inflow situation**: This month, the total net inflow of main funds reached 588.19 million yuan, and the trading enthusiasm in the market increased compared to last month. From the perspective of different underlying - asset REITs, the top three underlying - asset types in terms of net inflow of main funds this month were consumption infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and transportation infrastructure, with net inflows of 366.47 million, 58.62 million, and 44.97 million yuan respectively. From the perspective of single REITs, the top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds this month were Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, CICC Yinli Consumption REIT, and Huaxia Joy City Commercial REIT, with net inflows of 193.33 million, 68.38 million, and 42.48 million yuan respectively, and the consecutive inflow days were +1, +5, and +1 days respectively [33]. - **Block - trade situation**: The total amount of block trades this month was 1.55 billion yuan, an increase compared to last month. There were 20 trading days with block trades this month, and the total block - trade turnover was 1.55 billion yuan. The block - trade turnover on January 19, 2026, was the highest within the month, reaching 236.09 million yuan. In terms of single REITs, the top three in terms of block - trade turnover within the month were CITIC Construction Investment State Power Investment New Energy REIT, Ping An Ningbo Traffic Investment REIT, and Penghua Shenzhen Energy REIT, with turnovers of 195.04 million, 180.62 million, and 145.72 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding average discount - premium rates were - 0.19%, - 1.66%, and - 0.47% respectively [37]. 3.3 Related Policies - On January 4, the "Notice of the Ministry of Commerce and Other 9 Departments on Implementing the Action to Promote Green Consumption" was issued, emphasizing support for eligible projects to issue infrastructure - sector real - estate investment trusts (REITs). On January 15, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held the 2026 system work conference, proposing to promote the improvement of quality, adjustment of structure, and expansion of the total amount of the bond market, and to ensure the smooth implementation of the pilot program for commercial real - estate REITs [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Apple Inc. (AAPL.O) [1] Core Insights - Apple achieved record revenue of $143.8 billion in FY1Q26, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.7%, significantly exceeding market expectations and the company's previous guidance of 10%-12% growth [4][5] - Net profit reached $42.1 billion, up 15.9% year-over-year, with a basic EPS of $2.85, marking an 18.5% increase [4] - The overall gross margin rose to 48.2%, surpassing the previous guidance of 47%-48% [4] Revenue Performance - iPhone revenue was $85.3 billion, reflecting a 23% year-over-year increase, with strong performance across all regions, validating the robust product cycle of the iPhone 17 series [5] - Service revenue reached $30 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, setting a new record, with multiple sub-segments like advertising and cloud services also achieving historical highs [5] - Other hardware categories showed mixed results, with Mac revenue declining by 7% due to high base effects from last year's M4 chip launch, while iPad revenue grew by 6% and wearables saw a slight decline of 2% due to supply constraints [5] Guidance and Strategic Initiatives - For FY2Q26, Apple projects total revenue growth of 13%-16%, with service revenue expected to maintain similar growth rates as FY1Q26 [6] - Gross margin guidance is set at 48%-49%, despite acknowledging rising storage costs, indicating strong pricing power and supply chain management capabilities [6] - Apple is deepening its AI strategy, collaborating with Google to develop next-generation foundational models, enhancing user experience with new AI features [6] Profit Forecasts - Based on the strong performance in FY1Q26 and optimistic guidance, the report raises the GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 to $121.1 billion, with corresponding EPS estimates of $8.38 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Apple Inc. (AAPL.O) [1] Core Insights - Apple achieved record revenue and profit in FY1Q26, with revenue reaching $143.8 billion (yoy +15.7%) and net profit at $42.1 billion (yoy +15.9%), surpassing market expectations and previous guidance [4][5] - The overall gross margin increased to 48.2%, exceeding the previous guidance of 47%-48% [4] - The strong performance was driven by a robust recovery in iPhone sales, with iPhone revenue at $85.3 billion (yoy +23%) [5] - Service revenue also reached a record high of $30 billion (yoy +14%), indicating strong user engagement and monetization capabilities [5] - Despite supply chain challenges, the guidance for FY2Q26 remains optimistic, with expected revenue growth of 13%-16% and gross margin guidance of 48%-49% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY1Q26 revenue was $143.8 billion, net profit was $42.1 billion, and basic EPS was $2.85 [4] - The gross margin for FY1Q26 was 48.2%, reflecting strong pricing power and supply chain management [6] Business Segments - iPhone revenue was $85.3 billion, marking a 23% year-over-year increase [5] - Service revenue reached $30 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year, with multiple sub-segments achieving record highs [5] - Other hardware segments showed mixed results, with Mac revenue declining by 7% and iPad revenue increasing by 6% [5] Future Outlook - The guidance for FY2Q26 includes a revenue growth forecast of 13%-16% and a gross margin of 48%-49% [6] - The company is focusing on AI development, including partnerships with Google for next-generation models and enhancing user experience through new AI features [6][7] - Long-term growth potential is supported by a large active device ecosystem of over 2.5 billion [7]

- The report primarily focuses on the performance of various fund types, including equity funds, bond funds, and ESG products, during the week of January 26-30, 2025[1][3][4] - It highlights the net inflows and outflows of ETFs, with significant inflows observed in commodity ETFs and cyclical theme ETFs, while large-cap broad-based ETFs experienced substantial outflows[3][56][63] - ESG funds are categorized into themes such as "low carbon," "social responsibility," and "green," with a total of 211 ESG funds in the domestic market, amounting to a combined scale of 1560.47 billion yuan[4][74][78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the commercial aerospace sector [6]. Core Insights - SpaceX plans to deploy up to 1 million AI satellites to create the world's first space data center, expanding the demand for commercial aerospace [1][2]. - The new satellites will operate at altitudes of 500km, 1000km, and 2000km, providing large-scale AI inference and data center services to billions of users globally [1]. - The focus of competition in commercial aerospace is shifting from communication services to the development of orbital computing infrastructure [2]. Summary by Sections Satellite Deployment - SpaceX's initiative aims to establish a "space-based computing network" that leverages solar energy and the unique environment of space to handle high-intensity computing tasks, overcoming the limitations faced by terrestrial data centers [2]. Rocket Manufacturing and Launch Capabilities - SpaceX has reduced the cost of launching payloads to approximately $1400-$2000 per kilogram through the regular recovery and reuse of Falcon 9 rocket boosters, with plans to further decrease costs to $100 per kilogram with the next-generation fully reusable Starship [3]. Communication Infrastructure - Inter-satellite laser communication is critical for the SpaceX orbital data center system, facilitating all major data transmission and network routing tasks [4]. Strategic Asset Integration - Elon Musk is considering merging SpaceX with his AI company xAI or Tesla to enhance the space computing layout, potentially allowing SpaceX's orbital data centers to provide significant computing power to xAI [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the rocket sector such as Chaojie Co., Gaohua Technology, and Zhongheng Design, as well as satellite companies like Shaanxi Huada, Shanghai Port, and others [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a revenue growth of 1.1% year-on-year in 2025, primarily impacted by a slowdown in domestic milk powder business [1]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is expected to remain flat compared to the previous year, with a decline in profit anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to slower internal code adjustments and increased industry competition [1][2]. - The company is projected to see a moderate improvement in revenue growth in 2026, supported by the completion of internal code switching and a low base effect from 2025 [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated at 7.487 billion yuan, with a slight increase from 2024 [5]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 236 million yuan, remaining stable compared to 2024 [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.13 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13x [4][5]. Market and Competitive Environment - The internal code switching process has been delayed, affecting the company's growth momentum in the second half of 2025 [2]. - Increased competition in the industry has led to other companies offering subsidies or price reductions, putting the company in a disadvantageous position during its price increase phase [2]. - The company’s overseas business is expected to be a significant growth driver, particularly in markets like the Middle East and Southeast Asia, with plans to launch products in India by 2027 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 236 million, 262 million, and 280 million yuan respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook due to declining birth rates and intensified competition [4]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13x, 12x, and 11x respectively, indicating a relatively stable valuation in the coming years [4].

Macro Insights - In January, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors fell into contraction territory, influenced by seasonal factors such as colder weather and pre-Spring Festival personnel returns, leading to a slowdown in economic activity [2] - The end of the overseas stocking season has resulted in a decline in export sentiment, putting pressure on the equipment manufacturing sector [2] - There is an increasing divergence between old and new growth drivers, with high-tech manufacturing continuing to expand while consumer goods manufacturing has entered a contraction phase [2] - Raw material prices have risen significantly faster than finished product prices, impacting profits for some companies [2] Fiscal Insights - In December 2025, both revenue and expenditure of the general public budget fell short of initial budget targets, primarily due to a sluggish real estate market and pressures on revenue growth in certain industries [3] - Special bonds and remaining limits continue to supplement local government financial capacity, with government fund expenditures showing improvement compared to historical averages [3] - High growth in spending on urban renewal and water conservancy projects in December 2025 is expected to support infrastructure investment [3] - The issuance of new local bonds at the beginning of 2026 is faster than in previous years, indicating a strong push for fiscal front-loading [3] Policy Insights - Kevin Warsh's nomination as the new Federal Reserve Chair suggests a policy path that may include further interest rate cuts while being cautious about balance sheet expansion, indicating a potential "dovish-hawkish" policy mix [4] - Market reactions have shown a notable pullback in gold and U.S. equities, reflecting concerns over Warsh's opposition to balance sheet expansion [4] - It is anticipated that the pace of balance sheet reduction will not accelerate quickly under Warsh, with interest rate cuts likely occurring before any balance sheet contraction [4] Investment Strategy - The upcoming spring market is expected to be promising, with potential positive news on both policy and fundamentals in the coming months [5] - A brief period of market correction may occur before the Spring Festival, but investors are advised to hold onto stocks as trading activity is expected to pick up post-holiday [5] Bond Market Insights - The convertible bond market is experiencing a downturn, with a recommendation for careful selection of bonds based on their terms and underlying stock performance [10] - The overall issuance of credit bonds has increased, with a total of 445 bonds issued this week, amounting to 470.374 billion yuan, a 21.90% increase from the previous week [7] - Credit spreads across various industries are mixed, with the automotive sector seeing the largest increase in AAA credit spreads, up 3.6 basis points [7] Industry Insights - The recent policy on capacity pricing for the power generation sector is expected to promote orderly and fair competition in the energy storage industry, benefiting the sector overall [11] - Uranium prices have risen to $98 per pound, a 29% increase since December 2025, driven by strong demand and tight supply conditions [12] - The global uranium supply is concentrated, with the U.S. and China being the largest demand countries, which may further support price increases [12] Company Insights - The report on Keda Manufacturing indicates a significant asset restructuring plan to acquire a 51.55% stake in Tef International, which is expected to substantially enhance the company's net profit [13] - Tesla's valuation has shifted towards an AI-driven model, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, reflecting the company's focus on AI infrastructure and technology advancements [14] - Microsoft's cloud business shows robust growth, with projected net profits for FY2026 to FY2028 indicating a strong long-term growth outlook [15] - TAL Education's revenue for FY26Q3 reached $770.2 million, a 27% year-on-year increase, with net profit significantly improving, leading to upward revisions in profit forecasts [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector [6] Core Insights - The commercial model of the power sector is continuously transforming, with a reduced reliance on annual long-term contracts for electricity and prices. The sector is shifting towards mid-to-long-term markets, spot markets, and capacity markets, indicating a comprehensive push for marketization [19][3] - The capacity price mechanism is being refined, with the aim to optimize the electricity market and ensure fair compensation reflecting the contributions of different power plants to peak demand [15][3] - The report highlights the importance of capacity market development, with current subsidies in Gansu and Yunnan reaching 330 RMB/kW·year, which helps offset the decline in electricity prices [19][3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The SW public utility sector index fell by 1.66% this week, ranking 16th among 31 SW sectors. In comparison, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.44% and 1.62%, respectively [33][33] - Within sub-sectors, thermal power decreased by 2.78%, hydropower increased by 0.3%, while solar and wind power fell by 4.53% and 2.49%, respectively [33][33] Price Updates - Domestic and imported thermal coal prices have rebounded slightly, with domestic Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal rising by 4 RMB/ton, remaining below 700 RMB/ton. Imported coal prices also saw a slight increase [12][12] - The average clearing price for electricity in Shanxi and Guangdong has significantly increased due to cold weather, while the monthly agent purchase electricity costs are trending upwards due to rising capacity prices and the entry of renewable energy into the settlement cycle [13][12] Key Events - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity price mechanism for power generation, which includes optimizing compensation for coal and gas power generation [3][15] - Recent policy changes include relaxing the annual long-term contract signing ratio for coal-fired power companies and the cancellation of time-of-use electricity pricing in multiple regions [3][15] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on national thermal power operators such as Huaneng International and Guodian Power, which are expected to maintain stable cash dividends. The profitability of thermal power is anticipated to gradually detach from coal cost dependency, shifting towards multiple influencing factors [19][3] - For long-term stable investment needs, the report recommends attention to companies like Yangtze Power, State Power Investment Corporation, and China National Nuclear Power [19][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is planning a major asset restructuring to acquire minority stakes in its subsidiary, Tef International, to enhance its overseas building materials business [6][8] - The overseas building materials segment has shown significant growth, with Tef International projected to contribute substantially to the company's net profit [8][10] - The restructuring is expected to solidify the company's position in the overseas market and improve operational synergies [10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 1.918 billion shares and a market capitalization of 33.927 billion yuan [1] - The stock price has fluctuated between 6.92 yuan and 17.89 yuan over the past year [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with Tef International achieving a revenue of 8.19 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.47 billion yuan in 2025 [8][10] - The overseas building materials business accounted for 46% of total revenue and 58% of gross profit in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 36.8% [8] Future Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.569 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 55.89% compared to the previous year [12] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 16.032 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.24% [12] Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a P/E ratio of 22 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 2.7 [12][15] - The expected EPS for 2025 is 0.82 yuan, with a projected ROE of 12.39% [12][15]

2026 年 2 月 1 日 总量研究 警惕转债估值过高的风险 ——2026 年 2 月 1 日可转债观察 要点 1、警惕转债估值过高的风险 金融资产价格的中长期走势在很大程度上取决于其估值，估值越贵则下跌的概率 越大。可转债是其正股的衍生品，因此其价格的走势既取决于正股，也取决于其 相对于正股的估值，后者较可能是主导转债市场波动的决定性力量。 转股溢价率是最重要的估值指标之一。其代表转债价格相对于转换价值的溢价程 度，或者说是为了使转股不亏钱而需要的正股涨幅。在其他条件相同时，转股溢 价率越高则其估值越贵。 2026 年 1 月末，转债市场转股溢价率的中位数为 33.2%，处于自 2018 年初以 来的 71%分位数，估值已偏贵。进一步讲，只有 2022-2024 年中一些月份的转 股溢价率明显超过了 2026 年 1 月末，而这段时间溢价率的抬升主要是正股下跌 所导致的。（注：正股和转债同时下跌而转债跌幅小，因此溢价率抬升。） 为了过滤掉正股下跌的影响，我们剔除了每一时间点净价低于 120 元的转债， 重新计算转股溢价率中位数。2026 年 1 月末，净价在 120 元（含）以上的转债 的溢价率中位数为 ...