- The report tracks industry prosperity signals using quantitative models and indicators, focusing on coal, livestock, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining industries[9] - For the coal industry, the model uses price factors and capacity factors to estimate monthly revenue and profit growth rates. The formula is based on the monthly price index of thermal coal, which determines the sales price for the following month[10][14] - In the livestock industry, the "slaughter coefficient method" is applied to predict the supply-demand gap for pigs six months ahead. The formula is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Pig Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (lagged 6 months)}} $ This method effectively identifies pig price upcycles based on historical data[15][16] - For the steel industry, the model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators (e.g., iron ore, coke, coal, and scrap steel) to predict monthly profit growth and calculate per-ton profit[18][21] - In the structural materials sector, profitability changes in glass and cement manufacturing are tracked using price and cost indicators. These changes are used to design allocation signals. Additionally, manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data are analyzed to assess potential infrastructure investment expectations[24][26] - For the fuel refining and oil services industry, the model uses changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and cracking spreads to estimate profit growth and design allocation signals. The model also considers changes in new drilling activities[27][34][35]

- The report introduces a quantitative model for calculating IPO returns based on the formula: **Single account IPO return = min(account size, subscription limit) * winning rate * return rate** **A/B class investors full subscription return = subscription limit * A/B class offline winning rate * return rate** The winning rate considers actual offline IPO results, and the return rate is calculated using the first-day average transaction price relative to the issue price for registered IPOs, or the average transaction price on the opening day for non-registered IPOs[42][43][48] - The model evaluates IPO returns across different market segments (Main Board, ChiNext, STAR Market) and investor classes (A/B). For November 2025, the calculated IPO return rates for a 5-billion-scale account are: **Main Board:** A class: 0.037%, B class: 0.035% **ChiNext:** A class: 0.058%, B class: 0.058% **STAR Market:** A class: 0.046%, B class: 0.045%[43][44][47] - The cumulative IPO return rates for 2025 are: **A class:** 1.716% **B class:** 1.399% These values are based on a 5-billion-scale account participating in all IPOs during the year[49][50][51] - Full subscription returns for November 2025 are calculated as follows: **Main Board:** A class: 19 million yuan, B class: 17.9 million yuan **ChiNext:** A class: 31.3 million yuan, B class: 31.2 million yuan **STAR Market:** A class: 22.8 million yuan, B class: 22.6 million yuan[52][53][55]

Market Overview - The market is currently in a bull phase, but may enter a wide fluctuation stage in the short term, with significant upward potential remaining[3] - The domestic equity market indices experienced a downward trend this week, with various industry-themed funds performing poorly, while financial and real estate funds showed relative resilience[3] ETF and Fund Performance - Different investment range ETFs saw inflows, with broad-based theme ETFs significantly increased by passive funds, while active equity funds raised their positions compared to last week[3] - The public research stock selection strategy achieved an excess return of 3.63% relative to the CSI 800 index, while private equity research tracking strategy achieved an excess return of 3.32%[3] Credit Market Insights - A total of 433 credit bonds were issued this week, with a total issuance scale of 5890.11 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.34%[23] - The weighted REITs index closed at 182.04, with a weekly return rate of -0.07%, ranking lower than other major asset classes such as US stocks and gold[27] Industry-Specific Trends - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of stabilization, driven by improved exports, with new export orders and small enterprise PMI significantly rebounding compared to last month[13] - The steel sector is expected to recover to historical profit levels, with the PB ratio likely to improve, although risks from futures price volatility remain[5] Recommendations - The investment strategy suggests focusing on "dividend + technology" as a long-term theme, with a positive outlook for the "red dividend" in terms of volatility[3] - In the lithium sector, companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential are recommended, including Salt Lake Co., Zangge Mining, and Tianqi Lithium[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The consensus among CSPT member companies to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026 indicates a significant tightening in copper supply, which is expected to drive copper prices to new highs [4][1]. - The disruptions in copper mining in 2025, including production guidance reductions from major mines, are likely to exacerbate the supply constraints [2]. - The current low processing fees (TC) for copper smelting, coupled with reliance on by-product revenues, poses profitability challenges for smelting companies [3]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity - CSPT members account for approximately 70% of China's electrolytic copper production capacity, with a total capacity of over 10 million tons per year [1]. Mining Disruptions - Significant production guidance reductions from various mines in 2025, totaling a decrease of 42,000 tons and 35,000 tons for 2025 and 2026 respectively, represent about 1.8% and 1.5% of global copper mine production [2][19]. Profitability - The processing fee (TC) for copper smelting has reached historical lows, with spot prices at -43 USD/ton and long-term contracts dropping to 0 USD/ton, forcing smelting companies to depend on by-product revenues for profitability [3][11]. Inventory Levels - Global copper inventories are at a six-year high, with LME copper at 159,000 tons and COMEX at 419,000 tons, but the distribution is uneven, leading to potential tightness outside the U.S. [3][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining, while also suggesting to monitor Tongling Nonferrous, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [5] - The report notes that the liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved slightly, with the BCI index at 52.50, indicating a positive trend [11] - The report indicates that the total inventory of five major steel varieties is at its highest level for the same period in four years, suggesting potential supply pressures [22] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises in November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [11] - The current price of London gold is $4,219 per ounce, reflecting a 3.80% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The total inventory of five major steel varieties is at a four-year high [22] - The price changes for key materials include rebar up 0.93% and cement price index up 0.22% [22] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 88%, down 0.6 percentage points [43] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year median [3] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down 0.25% and copper up 1.77% [3] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is 69.19%, down 1.88 percentage points [3] Sub-sectors - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 339,000 yuan per ton, up 3.04% from last week [3] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,430 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.33% increase [3] - The price of electrolytic copper is 87,480 yuan per ton, up 1.77% [3] Price Ratio Relationships - The gold-silver price ratio has reached its lowest level since August 2024, at 78 times [4] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.08 this week [4] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 40 yuan per ton [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1,121.80 points, down 0.09% [4] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.90%, up 0.70 percentage points [4] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.64%, with industrial metals performing best at +3.46% [5] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 [5] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is likely to recover, leading to a potential PB ratio recovery [5]

Macro Analysis - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of stabilization in November, indicating a weak recovery driven by improved exports due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the US, with new export orders and small enterprise PMI significantly rebounding [2] - Seasonal disruptions from the October holiday have ended, leading to a rise in production and procurement indices [2] - Both raw material and finished product price indices have increased, suggesting an ongoing improvement in the supply-demand relationship for industrial goods [2] Strategy Insights - The market is expected to remain in a wide fluctuation phase, with a potential bull market direction, although short-term catalysts may be lacking [4] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock monthly stock picks for December include companies like Tencent Holdings, China Petroleum, and Haier Smart Home, indicating a focus on sectors with growth potential [3] Bond Market Overview - The total bond custody volume increased significantly in October, with a net increase in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while financial bonds saw a net decrease [5] - The convertible bond market experienced slight adjustments, with high-priced and high-valuation convertible bonds facing pressure [6] - Credit bond issuance rose to 5,890.11 million yuan, reflecting a 1.34% increase week-on-week, with overall credit spreads trending upwards [7] Chemical Industry Insights - The signing of a major potash fertilizer contract at $348 per ton indicates a tight supply-demand situation, supporting the industry's positive outlook [11] - Oil prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production policies, with Brent and WTI prices reported at $62.32 and $58.48 per barrel respectively [12] Energy Sector Developments - The storage and hydrogen energy sectors are expected to see continued growth, with government support for market-driven adjustments and the promotion of hydrogen ammonia construction [13] Copper Industry Analysis - The China Copper Raw Material Negotiation Group has requested a 10% reduction in copper production capacity for 2026, indicating a tightening supply situation [14] Utility Sector Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission has released new pricing policies for electricity distribution, which may lead to a valuation recovery in the green electricity sector [15] Automotive Sector Performance - Pony.ai reported significant revenue growth in its Robotaxi segment, with expectations for continued expansion and improved profitability [16] - Li Auto's third-quarter performance was under pressure, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts, but the company remains optimistic about its market positioning [17] Apparel Industry Trends - Chow Tai Fook's sales growth turned positive in Q2, with a notable increase in revenue from priced jewelry, prompting an upward revision of profit forecasts [18] - Bosideng's revenue grew by 1.4% in the first half of the fiscal year, supported by stable growth in its branded down jacket business [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors, including Tianjin Pharmaceutical (天士力), Innovent Biologics (信达生物), and Mindray Medical (迈瑞医疗) [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic substitution in the blood purification device sector, highlighting that over 70% of the high-value medical consumables market is currently dominated by imported products. The report suggests that advancements in domestic technology for dialysis machines and filters could enhance local competitiveness [2][21][25]. - The report identifies a long-term growth logic for the blood purification industry, driven by an increasing patient base, improved payment capabilities, technological advancements, and strong government support [25][28]. - The investment strategy focuses on the clinical value of pharmaceuticals, recommending investments in innovative drug chains and high-end medical devices [3][32]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share pharmaceutical index rose by 2.67%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.03 percentage points, while underperforming the ChiNext index by 2.00 percentage points [1][16]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index increased by 3.85%, surpassing the Hang Seng Index by 1.49 percentage points [1][16]. R&D Progress - Recent IND applications include ATG-022 by Deqi Pharmaceutical, CH006 by Gilead Sciences, and FXS887 by Fosun Pharma, indicating ongoing innovation in the sector [37]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Valuation - The report provides detailed earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, with several receiving a "Buy" rating based on their projected performance [4]. Focus on Blood Purification Devices - Blood purification is a primary treatment for acute and chronic renal failure, with dialysis being the most common method. The report notes that the domestic market for dialysis machines and filters is still largely foreign-dominated, but there is significant room for domestic products to gain market share [2][21][25]. Investment Strategy - The report outlines a three-stage investment strategy based on clinical value, focusing on breakthrough technologies, clinical validation, and operational efficiency in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors [32][34]. Recommended Companies - The report suggests monitoring leading companies in the blood purification device sector, including Shanwaishan, Weigao Blood Purification, Baolai Te, Jianfan Biological, Sanxin Medical, and Tianyi Medical [2][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of electric carbon, reaching a 16-month high, with prices for electric carbon, industrial carbon, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide rising by 4.3%, 4.07%, and 2.9% respectively [1][28] - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for the metal new materials sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, with specific companies recommended for investment due to their cost advantages and resource expansion potential [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Military New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt increased to 400,000 CNY/ton, up 1.8% week-on-week, with a price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder at 0.77, up 1.1% [1][10] - Carbon fiber prices remained stable at 83.8 CNY/kg, with a gross profit of -9.53 CNY/kg [21] New Energy Vehicle Materials - The report notes that the price of lithium carbonate has reached approximately 92,000 CNY/ton, with a recommendation to focus on companies with advantageous costs and expansion potential in the lithium mining sector [4] - The price of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials were reported at 391,000 CNY/ton and 156,800 CNY/ton, with changes of +2.62% and -1.5% respectively [1][39] Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon remained stable at 6.50 USD/kg, with EVA prices at 10,100 CNY/ton, also unchanged [2] Nuclear Power New Materials - Uranium prices increased to 63.96 USD/lb, up 1.7% [2] Consumer Electronics New Materials - Prices for various materials such as cobalt oxide and lithium cobalt oxide remained stable, with cobalt oxide priced at 344,800 CNY/ton [3] Other Materials - Platinum prices increased by 4.6% to 412 CNY/g, while rhodium and iridium prices saw slight declines [3]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental protection sectors [1]. Core Views - The report highlights the continued prosperity of the energy storage industry chain, with hydrogen and ammonia expected to be developed in a coordinated, large-scale, and advanced manner [2][3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recognized the achievements in energy storage and hydrogen energy development, emphasizing the importance of market-oriented mechanisms for reasonable returns [2]. - The investment outlook for energy storage, hydrogen energy, and lithium batteries remains positive, with expectations for sustained demand and favorable bidding data in the domestic market [3][4]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage is expected to maintain a good level of independent storage bidding in 2026, supported by a complete revenue model through energy, capacity, and ancillary service markets [3]. - Overseas energy storage demand is anticipated to rise, particularly in the U.S. due to ongoing electricity shortages, and in regions like the Middle East and Ukraine [3][6]. - The report notes a continuous high level of bidding and production in domestic energy storage, with significant projects being awarded [6][7]. Wind Power - The report states that China's onshore wind power installed capacity is projected to grow by 9.68% year-on-year in 2024, while offshore wind power capacity is expected to decrease by 40.85% [8]. - The bidding capacity for domestic wind power projects has seen a significant increase, with a 90% year-on-year growth in 2024 [11]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is expected to improve due to rising order deliveries and ongoing cost reductions [18]. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing strong demand, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, with expectations for a favorable supply-demand balance [19][22]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in lithium mines and components that are not yet supporting production expansion [22]. - The pricing dynamics for lithium carbonate and other battery materials are expected to remain strong due to tight supply conditions [21][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 38.986 billion for FY2026H1, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year [1] - In FY2026Q2, the sales growth turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim cash dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 85.7% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2026H1, the revenue from priced jewelry increased by 9.3%, while the total revenue from gold jewelry and watches decreased by 3.8% and 10.6%, respectively [2] - The gross profit margin for FY2026H1 was 30.5%, down by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the timing of gold price increases [4] - The company’s operating income for FY2026 is projected to be HKD 90.859 billion, with a net profit of HKD 8.131 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 37.45% [5] Market Segments - The revenue from the mainland China market accounted for 82.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5% [2] - The Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets showed a revenue increase of 6.5% in FY2026H1, with same-store sales growth of 4.4% [3] Sales Channels - The company’s retail revenue grew by 8.1% year-on-year, while franchise revenue declined by 10.2% [2] - Same-store sales in the mainland China market increased by 4.8% for franchises and 2.6% for direct sales [2] Profitability and Valuation - The report projects an increase in net profit for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 by 17.4%, 16.1%, and 16.0%, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.82, 0.91, and 0.97 [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17 for FY2026, 15 for FY2027, and 14 for FY2028 [4]