Macro Insights - The US retail sales growth slowed down in July, decreasing from 0.9% in June to 0.5%, with core retail sales showing even weaker performance at 0.3%, significantly below the previous value of 0.8, indicating a continued downward trend in the US economy [1] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound after the high-temperature weather ends and funding is gradually allocated to projects, while the "double interest subsidy" policy will support consumption [2] Market Strategy - The domestic policy is actively promoting, with medium to long-term funds and individual investors flowing into the equity market, which supports a strong performance in the A-share market [3] - The focus on mid-year performance reports is increasing, with sectors such as steel, building materials, telecommunications, electronics, and light manufacturing expected to show improved performance [3] Bond Market - The credit bond issuance decreased by 23.5% week-on-week, with a total issuance of 335 billion yuan, and the total transaction volume fell by 12.25% [5] - The REITs market showed a downward trend in prices, with a weighted REITs index returning -1.44% [7] Industry Research - The wind power equipment sector remains strong, with a significant order backlog reported by Dongfang Cable, indicating high industry prosperity [12] - The prices of electric carbon and rhodium have been rising, with lithium prices expected to increase due to supply disruptions [13][16] - The performance of major international oil companies declined in H1 2025, with IEA revising down the global oil demand forecast [14] Company Research - Jiangyin Bank reported a revenue of 2.4 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, with net profit rising by 16.6% [21] - Huafeng Chemical's profitability is under pressure due to the downturn in spandex and adipic acid markets, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [22] - Geely Auto's H1 2025 performance was strong, driven by four major brands, with a projected net profit of 16.16 billion yuan for 2025 [23] - Crystal Morning's Q2 revenue reached a historical high, driven by the launch of new Wi-Fi products [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The pesticide industry is experiencing a recovery in market demand, leading to a significant improvement in the company's net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 2.083 billion yuan in 25H1, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and a net profit of 42 million yuan, up 117.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and accelerating overseas market registration to capture orders, resulting in export sales of 1.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.61% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 25H1, the company reported revenues from herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and regulators of 1.06 billion, 790 million, 170 million, and 80 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +14.8%, +0.5%, -3.3%, and +40.1% [2]. - The gross margins for these products were 11.1%, 15.7%, 13.9%, and 26.9%, with year-on-year changes of -4.1, +8.6, -0.1, and +17.3 percentage points [2]. Capacity and Production - As of the end of 2024, the company has a raw material production capacity of 43,910 tons per year and a formulation capacity of 20,000 tons per year, with an additional 5,500 tons per year of raw material capacity under trial operation or construction [3]. - The company is advancing its production debugging and safety production for the relocation project along the Yangtze River, which is expected to support its performance in 2025 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2026 downwards, with the expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 74 million, 128 million, and 181 million yuan respectively [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the release of its construction capacity, which will support sustainable and healthy development [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The performance of major international oil companies declined in H1 2025 due to falling oil prices and low refining margins, with net profits for ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, Total, and BP showing year-on-year decreases of -15.3%, -39.7%, -22.9%, -31.2%, and -31.8% respectively [1][9][10] - The IEA has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, primarily due to weaker-than-expected demand from emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil [3][24] - Despite the oversupply pressure on oil prices, geopolitical risks from sanctions on Russia and Iran add uncertainty to the market [3][24] Summary by Sections Section 1: Performance of Major Oil Companies - In H1 2025, the average Brent crude oil price was $70.81 per barrel, a decrease of 15.1% year-on-year, with Q2 averaging $66.71 per barrel, down 21.5% [1][10] - Refining margins for Shell, Total, and BP fell by 24.4%, 44.4%, and 26.2% respectively, indicating a challenging refining market [1][10] - Natural gas prices increased, with Henry Hub and TTF averages rising by 66.8% and 38.9% year-on-year, but major companies like Shell and BP did not achieve year-on-year growth in their gas business due to lagging contract prices and production declines [1][10] Section 2: Oil and Gas Production Growth - The total oil and gas equivalent production of the five major international oil companies grew by 2.96% year-on-year in H1 2025, with ExxonMobil achieving a 15.5% increase in crude oil production due to rapid output from the Guyana block [2][18] - Cost control measures helped mitigate some performance volatility, with ExxonMobil's upstream profit only declining by 4.5% due to effective cost management [2][21] Section 3: IEA Oil Demand Forecast - The IEA has lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day, now expecting an increase of 680,000 barrels per day [3][24] - The IEA anticipates that OPEC+ will increase production by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025, contributing to a total supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day [3][24] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for major Chinese oil companies and oil service sectors, as well as for chemical products in the long term [4] - Specific companies to watch include China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, CNOOC, and various oil service engineering firms [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in performance in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year revenue drop of 17.8% and a net profit decrease of 42.6% [1][2]. - Despite the current downturn in the market for spandex and adipic acid, the company is expanding its production capacity and enhancing its supply chain, which is expected to strengthen its market position in the long term [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 12.1 billion yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 983 million yuan, down 35.2% year-on-year [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenues of 5.8 billion yuan and a net profit of 479 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.8% and 42.6%, respectively [1][2]. Market Conditions - The domestic price spread for spandex in Q2 2025 was 10,625 yuan/ton, down 1,827 yuan/ton year-on-year, indicating a supply surplus in the market [2]. - The adipic acid price spread was 2,859 yuan/ton, down 404 yuan/ton year-on-year, further highlighting the challenging market conditions [2]. Production Capacity and Strategic Initiatives - The company is a global leader in spandex, adipic acid, and polyurethane raw materials, with production capacities of 325,000 tons for spandex and 1,355,000 tons for adipic acid as of H1 2025 [3]. - Ongoing projects include an 8 billion yuan investment to expand spandex production capacity and a 50.2 billion yuan integrated natural gas project, which aims to enhance the company's supply chain and competitive edge [3]. Profitability Forecast - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to the current market conditions, with expected net profits of 2.128 billion yuan in 2025, 2.621 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.242 billion yuan in 2027 [4][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability, with a projected EPS of 0.43 yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.65 yuan by 2027 [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Views - The release of the new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" indicates a tightening of safety supervision in the coal mining sector, with significant revisions made to the previous regulations [1]. - Recent trends show an increase in coal prices at ports, while international oil and gas prices have decreased [2]. - The operating rates of coking coal mines remain low, but the average daily pig iron output is at a high level compared to the same period last year [3]. - Coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port and the Bohai Rim ports are at high levels compared to the same period last year [4]. - The report suggests that recent news regarding "anti-involution" and "checking overproduction" has positively impacted the medium to long-term expectations for coal prices, indicating significant upside potential for coal stocks [4]. Summary by Sections Safety Regulations - The new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" consist of 34 chapters and 777 articles, with 56 new articles added and 353 articles substantially revised, marking the most comprehensive revision to date [1]. Price Trends - Qinhuangdao Port's average price for thermal coal (5500 kcal) is 692 RMB/ton, up by 18 RMB/ton (+2.61%) week-on-week [2]. - The average price for thermal mixed coal in Yulin, Shaanxi (5800 kcal) is 547 RMB/ton, up by 4 RMB/ton (+0.74%) [2]. - Newcastle Port's thermal coal FOB price (5500 kcal) is 69 USD/ton, up by 2.05% [2]. Production and Utilization Rates - The capacity utilization rate for 462 thermal coal mines is 93.9%, up by 0.54 percentage points week-on-week but down by 1.57 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The operating rate for 523 coking coal mines is 83.7%, down by 0.19 percentage points week-on-week and down by 7.14 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Inventory Levels - As of August 15, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 5.67 million tons, up by 3.66% week-on-week and up by 5.78% year-on-year [4]. - Bohai Rim ports have a total coal inventory of 23.635 million tons, down by 4.15% week-on-week and down by 4.64% year-on-year [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends accumulating shares of China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, with a focus on coking coal stocks such as Lu'an Environmental Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to continue rising in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights that the short-term copper price remains volatile, with SHFE copper closing at 79,060 CNY/ton and LME copper at 9,760 USD/ton as of August 15, 2025 [1][17]. - The report indicates that the inventory dynamics are shifting, with domestic copper social inventory decreasing by 4.8% and LME copper inventory increasing by 0.1% [2][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Update - The copper stocks mostly increased, with SHFE copper price up by 0.73% and LME copper price down by 0.08% compared to the previous week [1][16]. - The report notes a decrease in domestic cable operating rates by 0.6 percentage points [3][79]. 2. Supply - Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports decreased by 10% to 558,000 tons as of August 15, 2025 [2][48]. - The report states that the production of old scrap copper in July increased by 3% month-on-month and 1% year-on-year [2][60]. - The report mentions that the copper concentrate production in China for May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [2][53]. 3. Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate reported at 69.3% [3][79]. - The report indicates that air conditioning production is expected to decline by 2.8% to 12.1% year-on-year from August to October 2025 [3][96]. - The report highlights that the production of copper pipes decreased by 6.4% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year in July [3][96]. 4. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 5% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 36% [4][32]. - The report notes that the COMEX non-commercial net long position reached 28,000 contracts, which is at the 63rd percentile since 1990 [4][32]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

2025 年 8 月 17 日 公司研究 营收盈利高增，息差逆势改善 ——江阴银行（002807.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：4.63 元 作者 非息高增带动营收提速，盈利回归双位数增长。江阴银行 2025 年上半年营收、拨 备前利润、归母净利润同比增速分别为 10.5%、14.7%、16.6%，增速分别较 1Q 提升 4.4、6.3、14.4pct。上半年净利息收入、非息收入增速分别为-0.2%、30.3%， 增速较 1Q 分别提升 1.2、9.4pct。上半年成本收入比、信用减值损失/营业收入分 别为 23.7%、36.1%，同比下降 2.7、5.1pct。拆分盈利增速结构：规模、非息为主 要贡献分项，分别拉动业绩增速 12.7、31.8pct。从边际变化看，非息增长提速对 业绩拉动作用增强，息差降幅收窄、拨备计提放缓对盈利增速拖累减弱。 点评： 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 24.61 | | 总市值(亿元 ...

- The report tracks quantitative sentiment indicators, including volume timing signals, which show optimistic views for major broad-based indices except for the Beixin 50 index, which is cautious[24][25] - The "HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio" sentiment indicator is calculated as the proportion of HS300 constituent stocks with positive returns over the past N days. This indicator captures market sentiment and is effective in identifying upward opportunities but has limitations in predicting downward risks[25][26] - The "Momentum Sentiment Indicator" uses two smoothed lines (short-term and long-term) to track sentiment changes. When the short-term line exceeds the long-term line, it signals optimism in the market. Parameters include N=230, N1=50, and N2=35[28][29][32] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" evaluates the HS300 index's trend using eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). When the closing price exceeds the values of more than five moving averages, it signals optimism[32][33][35] - Cross-sectional volatility analysis shows that the Alpha environment has improved in the short term for HS300, CSI500, and CSI1000 indices. However, over the past quarter, the Alpha environment remains average to poor based on historical volatility levels[37][41] - Time-series volatility analysis indicates an improvement in Alpha environment in the short term for HS300, CSI500, and CSI1000 indices. However, over the past quarter, the Alpha environment remains below average based on historical volatility levels[37][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 237.1 HKD, up from the current price of 200.2 HKD [3]. Core Views - The company reported a net revenue of 27.9 billion RMB for Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 9.4%, although slightly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 28.4 billion RMB [1]. - The gaming segment continues to show strong growth, with net revenue of 22.8 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 13.7%, but also below market expectations [1]. - Deferred revenue at the end of the period reached 17 billion RMB, up 24.6% year-over-year, indicating strong future revenue support [1]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing them by 9.9% and 8.2% respectively, and introduced a new profit forecast for 2027 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 operating profit was 9.06 billion RMB, with an operating margin of 32.5%, slightly below the expected 9.35 billion RMB [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 9.5 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 21.9%, also slightly below the expected 9.6 billion RMB [1]. - The company's gross margin improved to 64.7%, up 1.8 percentage points year-over-year, exceeding expectations [1]. Business Segments - The gaming segment's online game revenue was 22.1 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 14.9%, driven by new releases [1]. - Youdao's net revenue was 1.4 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 7.3%, surpassing expectations [1]. - Cloud music revenue reached 2 billion RMB, also up 7.3% year-over-year, exceeding expectations [1]. - Innovative and other businesses saw a decline in revenue, down 17.8% year-over-year [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - Marketing expenses were 3.6 billion RMB, with a marketing expense ratio of 12.8%, indicating a recovery to historical levels [1]. - The company continues to optimize its management and R&D expenses, with management expense ratio at 3.8% and R&D expense ratio at 15.6% [1]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The report projects a 2025-2026 adjusted net profit of 39.02 billion RMB and 41.43 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 44.48 billion RMB [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the high growth potential in the domestic gaming industry and improvements in profitability for its cloud music segment [1].

Report Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the week from August 11 to August 15, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, and the total trading volume also declined month - on - month. The credit spreads showed different trends in various industries, regions, and enterprise types [1][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - A total of 409 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 335.034 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 23.50%. Among them, 185 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 167.545 billion yuan (down 4.78% month - on - month, accounting for 50.01%); 188 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 107.989 billion yuan (down 9.87% month - on - month, accounting for 32.23%); 36 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 59.5 billion yuan (down 58.16% month - on - month, accounting for 17.76%) [1][11]. - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.92 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.55 years, urban investment bonds was 3.36 years, and financial bonds was 2.31 years [1][14]. - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.13%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.08%, urban investment bonds was 2.24%, and financial bonds was 1.88% [2][20]. 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Nine credit bonds cancelled their issuance this week [3][24]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - The overall industry credit spreads increased this week. Different industries, enterprise types, and regions showed different trends in credit spread changes. For example, among the Shenwan primary industries, the largest increase in AAA - rated industry credit spreads was in the public utilities sector (up 4.8BP), and the largest decrease was in the non - ferrous metals sector (down 0.9BP) [3][26]. 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 110.8575 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 12.25%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes [4][29]. 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report lists the top 20 actively traded urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week, including information such as security codes, security names, trading volumes, yields, and issuers [33][36].