2025 年 8 月 4 日 行业研究 如何看待股债跷跷板和 8 月流动性？ ——流动性观察第 114 期 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 6 月金融数据前瞻——流动性观察第 113 期 7 月流动性：自发宽松——流动性观察第 112 期 5 月金融数据前瞻——流动性观察第 111 期 6 月流动性展望——流动性观察第 110 期 4 月金融数据前瞻及 5 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 109 期 3 月金融数据前瞻及 4 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 108 期 2 月金融数据前瞻及 3 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 107 期 1 月金融数据前瞻及 2 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 106 期 12 月金融数据前瞻及 1 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 105 期 11 月金融数据前瞻及 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has a complete industrial chain in the silicon-based new materials sector, covering upstream silicon mining, organic silicon monomer synthesis, and downstream product manufacturing, making it the most comprehensive player in the domestic organic silicon industry [2]. - The company has established a fully integrated development model in crop protection, offering a complete range of herbicides and other agricultural products, and is a leader in global herbicide varieties [3]. - The company is accelerating its globalization efforts, establishing multiple overseas production bases and expanding its marketing network to over 130 countries and regions [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a registered capital of 15 million yuan for its new subsidiary, Zhejiang Xin'an Yushi Silicon Technology Co., Ltd., which focuses on synthetic materials and high-quality synthetic rubber sales [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 283 million yuan (down 29.7%), 472 million yuan (down 12.6%), and 684 million yuan, respectively [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 14.63 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.59 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.5% [5]. Profitability and Valuation - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 12.5% in 2023 to 13.4% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 96 in 2023 to 20 in 2027, reflecting an anticipated recovery in earnings [13]. Market Position - The company is the only domestic player with full coverage of downstream terminal products, offering over 3,000 types of products across various applications [2]. - It has established partnerships with several Fortune 500 companies, enhancing its market presence and credibility [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant downward revision in the US non-farm employment data for June, with a total adjustment of 90,000 jobs, primarily affecting government, leisure, and construction sectors, indicating potential economic instability due to tariffs [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance on inflation, with a possibility of 1-2 rate cuts in the second half of the year as trade negotiations progress [3] - The market is anticipated to enter a new upward phase in the second half of the year, with a focus on cyclical sectors and emerging industries [4][5] Group 2 - The FDCA industry is projected to grow significantly due to increasing demand for PEF as a superior alternative to PET, with recommended investments in companies like Tongkun Co., New Fengming, and Zhenhai Refining [13] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, benefiting sectors like photovoltaic materials, with a focus on price elasticity in the supply chain [14][16] - The coal industry is seeing improved price expectations due to recent policy measures, with recommendations for investments in major coal companies [18] Group 3 - Qingdao Bank reported a 7.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a net profit growth of 16%, indicating strong performance and asset quality [20] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, but maintains a "buy" rating based on long-term competitive advantages [23] - Huaneng International's second-quarter net profit increased by 50% year-on-year, driven by lower fuel costs and expansion in renewable energy [24] Group 4 - Ningde Times reported a 33.73% year-on-year increase in net profit for the second quarter of 2025, with strong market positioning in lithium batteries and new product developments [25] - Tencent is expected to see strong growth in core gaming and advertising revenues, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [26] - Meta Platforms exceeded revenue expectations in Q2 2025, with plans for increased investment in AI infrastructure [27]

2025 年 8 月 3 日 FY26Q2 指引相对平淡，自主芯片设计挑战和机遇并存 ——ARM（ARM.O）FY2026Q1 业绩点评 要点 事件： FY26Q1 业绩符合指引，FY26Q2 指引平淡。1）FY26Q1：FY26Q1 营 收 10.53 亿美元，YoY+12%，QoQ-15%，符合此前公司 10-11 亿美元指引区 间，市场预期 10.54 亿美元。授权收入 4.68 亿美元，YoY-1%；版税收入 5.85 亿美元，YoY+25%，系 Armv9 架构占比提升、Arm 芯片在数据中心的使用量 增长、CSS 芯片放量。盈利方面，FY26Q1 Non-GAAP EPS 0.35 美元， YoY-12.50%，符合此前公司 0.30~0.38 美元指引区间，市场预期 0.351 美元。 2）FY26Q2 利润指引偏弱：公司指引 FY26Q2 营收 10.1~11.1 亿美元，中值 对应 YoY+25.6%，QoQ+0.7%，市场预期 10.59 亿美元；指引 FY26Q2 Non-GAAP EPS 0.29~0.37 美元，中值较市场预期的 0.349 美元低 5.4%。公 司计划加大研发投入聚 ...

2025 年 8 月 3 日 行业研究 佛山启动突发公共卫生事件Ⅲ级响应，关注基孔肯雅热检测相关标的 ——医药生物行业跨市场周报（20250803） 要点 行情回顾：上周，医药生物（申万，下同）指数上涨 2.95%，跑赢沪深 300 指 数 4.70pp，跑赢创业板综指 3.23pp，在 31 个子行业中排名第 1。港股恒生医 疗健康指数上周收涨 1.87%，跑赢恒生国企指数 5.65pp。 上市公司研发进度跟踪：上周，映恩生物的注射用 DB-1419、恒瑞医药的 SHR-7782 注射液的临床申请新进承办；海思科的 HSK39004 吸入粉雾剂的 IND 申请新进承办。上周，石药集团的 SYHX1901、恒瑞医药的 SHR-1905 正在进行 三期临床；恒瑞医药的 HRS-7249 正在进行二期临床；凯因科技的 KW-040 正在 进行一期临床。 本周观点：佛山启动突发公共卫生事件Ⅲ级响应，关注基孔肯雅热检测相关标的 基孔肯雅热在国内外引发广泛关注。7 月 29 日佛山市人民政府发布公告，决定 启动佛山市突发公共卫生事件Ⅲ级响应。截至 7 月 31 日，佛山累计报告基孔肯 雅热确诊病例超过 6000 例。8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has achieved significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a revenue of 40.03 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.36%, and a net profit of 4.75 billion yuan, up 16.02% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is advancing its nuclear medicine research, with the innovative nuclear drug INR102 entering a new phase of clinical trials [1][3]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and innovation in traditional Chinese medicine, with multiple projects in various stages of development [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 40.03 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.75 billion yuan, marking a historical high [2]. - The operating cash flow reached 4.30 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.68% [2]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 27.9% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 11.9% [12]. Research and Development - The company is actively pursuing both short-term and long-term projects in traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drugs, with several products in various clinical trial phases [3]. - The nuclear medicine segment is a key focus, with two innovative nuclear drugs entering clinical trials [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been slightly adjusted upwards to 5.27 billion yuan and 5.85 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong rebound in meat and poultry prices due to increased stocking and the arrival of the consumption peak season [1][2]. - The pig price has shown a week-on-week increase of 1.27%, with the average price reaching 14.33 yuan/kg as of August 1 [23]. - The white feathered chicken price rose by 1.94% to 6.83 yuan/kg, while chick prices surged by 33.16% to 2.57 yuan/bird, driven by limited market supply and increased stocking enthusiasm among farmers [2][35]. - Corn and wheat prices have decreased slightly, while soybean meal prices have increased, indicating mixed trends in feed costs [3][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agricultural sector underperformed against the broader market, with the agricultural index declining by 2.97% [14]. - The animal husbandry segment saw a significant drop, particularly in pig farming, which fell by 4.63% [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking - Pig prices increased to 14.33 yuan/kg, while the average weight of pigs at slaughter was 127.98 kg, reflecting a slight decrease [22][23]. - The white feathered chicken price reached 6.83 yuan/kg, and chick prices rose significantly, indicating a recovery in the poultry market [35][21]. - Yellow chicken prices improved due to seasonal demand, with medium-speed chicken prices increasing by 8.33% to 5.46 yuan/jin [45]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, anticipating a favorable supply-demand balance in August, with key companies to watch including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [4][71]. - For the feed and veterinary sectors, companies like Haida Group and Reap Bio are highlighted due to rising demand from increased pig stocks [4][71]. - In the planting chain, companies such as Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang are recommended as grain prices are expected to rise [4][71]. - The pet food sector is also noted for growth potential, with companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. being highlighted [4][74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5] Core Insights - The report indicates a strong rebound in meat and poultry prices due to increased stocking and the arrival of the consumption peak season [1][2] - The pig price has shown a week-on-week increase of 1.27%, with the average price reaching 14.33 yuan/kg as of August 1 [23] - The white feather broiler price has risen by 1.94% to 6.83 yuan/kg, while chick prices surged by 33.16% to 2.57 yuan/bird [33] - Corn and wheat prices have decreased slightly, with corn averaging 2402.75 yuan/ton (down 0.21%) and wheat at 2440.5 yuan/ton (down 0.17%) [48] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural, forestry, and fishery sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 2.97% in the sector index [14] - The animal husbandry segment saw a significant drop of 4.63% [14] 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine - The average weight of market pigs is 127.98 kg, down 0.5 kg week-on-week, with a frozen meat inventory rate of 14.54% [23] 2.2 White Feather Broilers - The market is experiencing limited supply, leading to price increases for both broilers and chicks [33] 2.3 Yellow Feather Broilers - Yellow chicken prices have increased by 8.33% to 5.46 yuan/jin, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics during the summer [43] 2.4 Feed Sector - The report notes a slight decrease in corn and wheat prices, while soybean meal prices have increased by 0.49% to 2977.71 yuan/ton [48] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the swine breeding sector, highlighting companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Juxing Agriculture [4] - It also suggests monitoring the feed and animal health sectors, particularly Haida Group and Reap Bio [4] - In the planting chain, companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang are recommended due to favorable grain price trends [4] - The pet food sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [4]

2025 年 8 月 3 日 行业研究 政治局会议强调"反内卷"及"科技创新"，关注龙头白马及国产替代 ——基础化工行业周报（20250728-20250803） 要点 中共中央政治局召开会议，强调"产能治理"及"科技创新"。 7 月 30 日， 中共中央政治局召开会议，会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工 作。会议认为，今年以来，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成 效。主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重 点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我国经济展现强 大活力和韧性。但同时，会议指出，当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑 战。此外，会议指出，要坚定不移深化改革。坚持以科技创新引领新质生产 力发展，加快培育具有国际竞争力的新兴支柱产业，推动科技创新和产业创 新深度融合发展。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞争秩序持续优 化。依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。 新一轮供给侧改革来临，利好化工细分子行业龙头。近期各有关部门和部分 地方政府陆续发布重点行业产能治理、老旧装置摸底评估相关政策与文件。 伴随着"反内卷"相关政策的陆续出台，老旧产能 ...

2025 年 8 月 3 日 行业研究 四大石化央企召开年中工作会议，政治局会议再度强调"反内卷" ——石油化工行业周报第 414 期（20250728—20250803） 要点 四大石化央企召开年中工作会议，强调深化改革、科技创新与能源安全。本 周中国石油、中国石化、中国海油、中国中化集团分别召开 2025 年中工作会 议，中国石油要求深化体制改革和科技创新，结合发展新质生产力的需要，持 续推进公司治理体系和治理能力现代化。中国石化强调推动产业转型升级和科 技创新融合，加快管理体系变革。中国海油坚持降本增效、科技创新，加快培 育海洋能源新质生产力，纵深推进国企改革深化提升行动。在国企改革深化的 背景下，"三桶油"有望推进体制机制改革和管理创新，不断清除制约高质量 发展、新质生产力培育的体制机制障碍，有望不断向高端产业链延伸，同时突 破各项"卡脖子"技术，引领我国石化产业高质量发展。同时，"三桶油"持 续深化数智赋能和数智化转型，有望推进数智赋能创新，驱动主业与数智产业 协同发展。此外，"三桶油"强调能源安全保障，有望增强能源高效供给能力， 深化油气业务结构优化和质量效益提升。 政治局会议强调治理无序竞争与产 ...