要点 基本面：进口减量有限，产增需减导致过剩。（ 1）2025Q1，我国煤炭进口总量 1.1 亿吨，同比-0.9%，总体仍维持高位，其中，由印尼进口煤炭 5259 万吨，同 比-6.6%，由澳大利亚进口煤炭 1645 万吨，同比+3.7%，由蒙古进口煤炭 1749 万吨，同比+3.1%，由俄罗斯进口煤炭 1962 万吨，同比+7.9%；（2）2025Q1， 我国原煤产量 12.0 亿吨，同比+8.8%，其中，新疆、山西、陕西、内蒙古原煤 产量同比增速分别为 16.9%、19.8%、4.1%、2.1%；（3）2025Q1，我国火电 发电量 1.5 万亿千瓦时，同比-4.4%，生铁产量 2.2 亿吨，同比+1.4%，水泥产 量 3.3 亿吨，同比-1.7%，化工耗煤量 0.8 亿吨，同比+14.8%。 煤价：长协煤价稳健，现货煤价显著下行。（1）2025Q1，港口 5500 大卡现货 动力煤均价 721 元/吨，同比-20%，环比-12%；（2）2025Q1，港口 5500 大卡 长协动力煤均价 690 元/吨，同比-3%，环比-1%；（3）坑口煤价跟随港口煤价 下行，2025Q1，榆林、大同、鄂尔多斯动力煤均价 ...

2025 年 5 月 7 日 行业研究 1-4 月百强全口径销售额同比降 8%，楼市稳定态势需巩固 ——百强房企销售跟踪（2025 年 4 月） 要点 1-4 月百强房企全口径销售额累计同比-8%，全口径销售面积累计同比-20%。 1）2025 年 4 月，TOP10 房企的全口径销售金额、权益销售金额、全口径销售 面积分别为 1,411 亿元、990 亿元、658 万平，同比分别为-15.0%、-13.2%、 -20.6%，环比分别为-20.3%、-21.0%、-14.1%。 2）2025 年 1-4 月，TOP10 房企的全口径销售金额、权益销售金额、全口径销 售面积分别为 5,190 亿元、3,717 亿元、2,414 万平，同比分别为-10.3%、-8.7%、 -23.0%，累计同比较 1-3 月变化-1.9pct、-1.8pct、+0.9pct。 3）2025 年 4 月，TOP100 房企的全口径销售金额、权益销售金额、全口径销售 面积分别为 3,089 亿元、2,263 亿元、1,473 万平，同比分别为-9.2%、-6.9%、 -21.8%，环比分别为-10.4%、-10.9%、-10.2%。 ...

2025 年 5 月 7 日 公司研究 短期业绩承压，25 年积极应对 ——千味央厨（001215.SZ）2024 年年报及 25 年一季报点评 要点 事件：千味央厨发布 2024 年年报与 2025 年一季报，公司 24 年实现总营收 18.68 亿元、同比下滑 1.71%，实现归母净利润 0.84 亿元、同比下滑 37.67%，扣非 归母净利润 0.83 亿元、同比下滑 32.57%，剔除股权激励费用影响，24 年归母 净利润 1 亿元、同比下滑 31.99%。25Q1 总营收 4.7 亿元、同比增加 1.5%，归 母净利润 0.21 亿元、同比下降 37.98%。 24 年传统产品收入有所承压，直营渠道保持稳健发展。1）产品端，24 年油炸 类/烘焙类/蒸煮类/菜肴类及其他产品收入分别为 7.67/3.40/3.93/3.60 亿元，同 比-11.87%/-4.28%/+5.41%/+21.84%，油炸类和烘焙类产品收入承压，主要受 部分老品生命周期影响、同时新品仍处于上市初期贡献有限，油条、芝麻球、春 卷、蛋挞皮等传统单品收入有所下滑。蒸煮类产品收入增长主要为咸包产品收入 贡献、以及子公司味宝食品并表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company experienced short-term pressure on performance, with expectations for improvement on the cost side [1] - The sales decline in Q1 2025 was significantly impacted by the timing of the Spring Festival, leading to increased promotional efforts [2] - Rising raw material prices have put pressure on profit margins, with a notable decrease in gross margin in Q1 2025 [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised downwards due to anticipated recovery in terminal sales and cost pressures [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, and a net profit of 849 million yuan, up 5.82% year-on-year [1] - Q1 2025 saw a revenue drop to 1.571 billion yuan, down 13.76% year-on-year, with net profit falling to 77 million yuan, a decrease of 67.88% [1][2] Product Segments - Revenue from sunflower seeds, nuts, and other products in 2024 was 4.382 billion yuan, 1.924 billion yuan, and 773 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 2.60%, 9.74%, and 8.04% [2] - The company plans to enhance the sales of everyday products in response to competitive pressures in the nut category [2] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 28.78%, with Q1 2025 dropping to 19.47%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.97 percentage points [3] - The company aims to reduce costs further, with a sales expense ratio of 10.60% in Q1 2025, down 1.75 percentage points year-on-year [3] Profit Forecasts and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 703 million yuan and 872 million yuan, representing decreases of 34.7% and 28.9% respectively [4] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at 1.39, 1.72, and 1.94 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [4]

2025 年 5 月 7 日 行业研究 国补及服务消费表现突出，离岛免税销售额跌幅收窄 ——2025 年劳动节假期零售免税数据点评 要点 增速环比回升，国补品类及服务消费延续亮眼表现 商务部商务大数据显示，2025 年劳动节期间，全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额 （下称"2025 五一销售额"）比去年同期提升 6.3%。2025 五一销售额的同比 增速相较 2024 年同期的 6.8%下降 0.5pct，但环比 2025 年春节的同比增速 4.1% 提升 2.2pct，环比有所转暖。 从细分品类的维度来看，2025 年春节表现亮眼的赛道仍有较强动能：1）国补相 关品类销售额增长显著。根据商务部数据，五一假期期间商务部重点监测零售企 业家电、汽车、通讯器材销售额同比分别增长 15.5%、13.7%与 10.5%，商务部 重点监测电商平台智能家居产品销售额同比增长超 20%。 2）服务类消费维持高增。商务部数据显示，2025 年劳动节期间重点监测餐饮企 业营业额同比增长 8.7%，表现亦优于大盘。美团旅行数据显示，2025 年五一假 期期间，文旅订单量较 2023 年同期增长 30%，美团酒店预定量创下历史峰值； 抖 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.835 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 268 million yuan, a significant increase of 266.94% [1]. - The company's cream business continues to show strong growth, with the UHT cream series sales exceeding 500 million yuan in 2024 [2]. - The company has optimized its expense ratio significantly, with a decrease in sales expense ratio from 12.1% in 2024 to 10.1% in Q1 2025, and a reduction in management and R&D expense ratios [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 1.118 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.99%, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 85 million yuan in Q4 2023 [1]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.046 billion yuan, up 14.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 88 million yuan, an increase of 15.11% [1]. Business Segments - In 2024, revenue from various product categories was as follows: frozen baking (2.133 billion yuan, down 3.53%), cream (1.058 billion yuan, up 61.75%), fruit products (166 million yuan, down 11.34%), sauces (225 million yuan, down 3.58%), and other baking materials (226 million yuan, up 20.66%) [2]. - The traditional pastry shop channel accounted for approximately 57% of revenue in 2024, growing by 15%, while the supermarket channel saw a slight decline due to product adjustments by core clients [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.47%, while it decreased to 29.99% in Q1 2025, primarily due to rising raw material costs [4]. - The net profit margin improved to 8.45% in Q1 2025, reflecting the company's ongoing efforts to optimize costs and improve efficiency [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 332 million yuan for 2025, 386 million yuan for 2026, and 442 million yuan for 2027, translating to EPS of 1.96, 2.28, and 2.61 yuan respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 22 for 2025, 19 for 2026, and 17 for 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [4] Core Viewpoints - Tencent showcased 46 products at the SPARK 2025 game launch event, highlighting its comprehensive capabilities in development, publishing, and investment [1] - The report emphasizes Tencent's strong research and development capabilities, particularly in adapting popular PC game IPs into mobile formats, which is expected to yield ongoing benefits [1][2] - Tencent's investment in external companies is anticipated to enhance its IP portfolio and improve its capabilities in the overseas PC gaming market, contributing to long-term growth [1][2] Summary by Sections Product Development and Investment - Tencent's game publishing strategy has evolved to include a focus on investment, showcasing successful overseas ventures and a clear direction for future IP and PC game development [1] - The report notes that the Chinese mobile gaming market is expected to maintain a significant global share, with Tencent's investments likely to bolster its competitive edge in the PC gaming sector [1] User Engagement and Market Position - Tencent's gaming user engagement remains robust, with a reported 66.5% share of industry usage time, indicating a strong operational advantage [2] - The upcoming release of new titles is expected to mitigate growth pressures from high baseline comparisons in the latter half of 2025 [2] Financial Projections - The report projects Tencent's Non-IFRS net profit to reach 254.72 billion RMB in 2025, with a slight upward revision from previous estimates [2][10] - The target price for Tencent's stock has been adjusted to 605 HKD, reflecting confidence in its sustained performance across gaming and digital content sectors [2][4]

2025 年 5 月 7 日 公司研究 Q1 业绩表现亮眼，医疗和消费品板块协同发力 ——稳健医疗（300888.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：52.22 元 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.82 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 304.09 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 22.99/54.80 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 61.74% | 股价相对走势 -30% -12% 6% 24% 42% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 稳健医疗 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is under pressure, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 15.4% to 614.07 billion yuan and a significant drop in net profit by 88.2% to 1.67 billion yuan. The first quarter of 2025 shows a sequential improvement in profit, with net profit turning positive at 3.02 billion yuan, driven by a 13.3% increase in vehicle sales [1][3]. - The company is facing challenges in its joint ventures, particularly with SAIC-GM, which reported a 56.5% decline in sales in 2024, resulting in a net loss of 26.69 billion yuan. In contrast, SAIC-GM Wuling showed strong performance with a 12.3% increase in net profit [2][3]. - The company is adapting to market conditions by increasing its export sales and enhancing its self-owned brand presence, with self-owned brand sales accounting for approximately 60% of total sales in 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 614.07 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 9.4%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 137.68 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 8.1% [1][5]. - The net profit for 2024 was 1.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 88.2% from the previous year, while the first quarter of 2025 showed a net profit of 3.02 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year [1][5]. Joint Ventures and Partnerships - The investment income from joint ventures and associates in 2024 was -1.33 billion yuan, a significant drop from 10.72 billion yuan in 2023. The first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery with investment income of 1.54 billion yuan [2][3]. - SAIC Volkswagen's sales in 2024 decreased by 5.5% to 1.148 million vehicles, while SAIC GM's sales plummeted by 56.5% to 435,000 vehicles, leading to substantial losses [2][3]. Export and Self-Owned Brands - The company's export retail sales in 2024 increased by 2.6% to 1.082 million vehicles, with efforts to mitigate the impact of EU anti-subsidy investigations [3]. - The self-owned brand sales are projected to grow, supported by the integration of the Roewe and Feifan brands and the launch of new models in collaboration with Huawei [3].

——伊利股份（600887.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：伊利股份发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报，2024 全年实现营业收入 1157.80 亿元，同比-8.24%；归母净利润 84.53 亿元，同比-18.94%；扣非归母 净利润 60.11 亿元，同比-40.04%。其中，24Q4 单季度实现营业收入 267.40 亿 元，同比-7.07%；归母净亏损 24.16 亿元，23 年同期盈利 10.48 亿元；扣非归 母净亏损 24.98 亿元，23 年同期盈利 15.73 亿元。25Q1 实现营业收入 330.18 亿元，同比+1.35%；归母净利润 48.74 亿元，同比-17.71%；扣非归母净利润 46.29 亿元，同比+24.19%。 2025 年 5 月 7 日 公司研究 轻装上阵，调整向好 低温品类逆势增长，奶粉业务增势良好。1）液体乳 24 年实现收入 750.03 亿元， 同比-12.32%，主要系终端需求偏弱及常温奶主动去化库存带来的销量下降。低 温品类 24 年收入同比实现逆势增长。液体乳 25Q1 实现收入 196.40 亿元，同比 -3. ...