Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the electricity sector [3] Core Viewpoints - March electricity consumption growth was 4.8%, highlighting the importance of coal power upgrades and flexible regulation value [10][12] - The national electricity consumption in March reached 828.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [12] - The new three-year coal power upgrade plan emphasizes deep peak regulation and energy-saving carbon reduction [11][12] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In March, the electricity consumption by industry was as follows: primary industry 10.6 billion kWh (9.9% growth), secondary industry 557.8 billion kWh (3.8% growth), tertiary industry 148.4 billion kWh (8.4% growth), and urban and rural residents 111.4 billion kWh (5.0% growth) [12][66] - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to March was 238.46 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [66] Power Generation - In March, industrial power generation was 778 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [12] - Coal power generation in March decreased by 2.3%, while hydroelectric and nuclear power generation increased by 9.5% and 23.0%, respectively [12][10] Coal Power Upgrade Plan - The new coal power upgrade plan (2025-2027) aims to enhance existing units and establish new ones with improved performance metrics [11][12] - Key upgrade indicators include minimum output levels, load change rates, and carbon emission reductions [11][12] Investment Recommendations - Focus on coal power sector opportunities, with coal prices dropping to 674 RMB/ton, supporting improved profitability [13] - Recommended stocks include Huadian International, Waneng Power, and Zhejiang Energy, among others [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The national housing prices continue a slight downward trend, with core cities showing resilience. In March 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and fell by 5.0% year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while second-tier cities remained flat, and third-tier cities decreased by 0.2% [1][11] - The report emphasizes that the true stabilization of housing prices is contingent upon increased transaction volumes, especially as the market may face seasonal weaknesses post-April [2][11] - The report highlights that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate equates to investing in economic trends [4] Summary by Sections 1. National Housing Price Trends - In March 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 5.0% year-on-year. First-tier cities increased by 0.1%, second-tier cities remained unchanged, and third-tier cities decreased by 0.2% [1][11] - Second-hand home prices in March 2025 decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 7.3% year-on-year, with first-tier cities increasing by 0.2% and second-tier cities decreasing by 0.2% [1][11] 2. Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 3.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.81 percentage points, ranking second among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][14] - In the week, 30 cities recorded new home transaction areas of 149.8 million square meters, a decrease of 0.1% month-on-month and 8.2% year-on-year [2][14] 3. Key Company Credit Bond Situation - The report indicates that 11 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 9.351 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.596 billion yuan from the previous week [3][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to several reasons, including the expectation of stronger policy measures compared to previous years and the improved competitive landscape favoring leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [4] - Recommended companies include: - H-shares: Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Yuexiu Property - A-shares: Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Development, Huafa Group, Jianfa Shares [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations [1][35] - The report highlights the mixed performance of industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, with market direction remaining uncertain due to tariff policies and supply-demand dynamics [2] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are facing cost pressures that are limiting production, while the demand for lithium remains stable [3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by increased ETF holdings, with a notable weekly increase of 2.58 tons in SPDR Gold ETF [1] - The market is shifting from a "hot economy + inflation" narrative to a stagflation outlook, which historically benefits gold prices [1][35] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a flat performance, with global copper inventories at 695,000 tons, down by 62,000 tons week-on-week [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to U.S. tariff policies, with theoretical operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry at 43.81 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [2] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased slightly, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 70,000 yuan/ton, while production is constrained by cost pressures [3] - The report notes a 3% decrease in lithium carbonate production to 17,400 tons, with an operating rate of 46% [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals; Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for industrial metals; and Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including 惠城环保 (Hui Cheng Environmental) and 高能环境 (Gao Neng Environment) [4][29]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued guidelines to strengthen the management of new pollutants and construction waste, marking a shift towards precise pollution control in China. This is expected to create new opportunities in environmental monitoring, industrial pollution control, and hazardous waste treatment [10][18]. - The report highlights the importance of companies with core competencies in industrial pollution control and environmental monitoring equipment, recommending 聚光科技 (Juguang Technology) and 雪迪龙 (Xuedilong) as potential investment targets [18]. - The construction waste management sector is entering a phase of refined management, with new technical specifications aimed at reducing, classifying, and recycling construction waste. Companies like 翰蓝环境 (Hanlan Environment) and 洪城环境 (Hongcheng Environment) are identified as having technological advantages in this area [19][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Views - The report discusses the Ministry of Ecology and Environment's guidelines on new pollutants, emphasizing the prohibition of projects that do not meet pollution control requirements [10]. - It also covers the draft technical specifications for construction waste pollution control, which aim to enhance management practices [19]. 2. Market Performance - The environmental sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with a decline of 0.69% against a 1.19% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [31]. - Notable stock performances include 国中水务 (Guozhong Water) with a gain of 13.07% and 易世达 (Yishida) with a loss of 14.61% [31]. 3. Industry News - Recent developments include the establishment of a regular supervision mechanism for urban sewage treatment plants in Guizhou and the release of a draft management method for ecological environment-oriented development projects in Shandong [40]. - A new standard for greenhouse gas emissions reporting in the liquor industry has been introduced, effective from April 19, 2025 [41][42]. 4. Key Announcements - The report includes performance forecasts for various companies, indicating significant growth in net profits for some firms, such as 甘肃能源 (Gansu Energy) and 银星能源 (Yinxing Energy) [43].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 20 年 月 日 建筑材料 关注内需刺激主线，等待政策落地 2025 年 4 月 14 日至 4 月 18 日建筑材料板块（SW）下跌 0.02%，其中 水泥（SW）下跌 0.09%，玻璃制造（SW）下跌 0.15%，玻纤制造（SW） 下跌 1.79%，装修建材（SW）上涨 0.73%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益-0.38%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为 0.02 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周国常会指出"要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展"， "扩大有效投资，大力提振民间投资积极性"等，后续内需刺激有望加码。 根据 wind 统计，2025 年 3 月地方政府债总发行量 9788.03 亿元，发行金 额同比 2024 年 3 月增长 55.5%，截至目前，2025 年一般债发行规模 0.47 万亿元，同比-0.10 万亿元，专项债发行规模 2.78 万亿元，同比+1.61 万 亿元。化债下加码政府财政压力有望减轻，企业资产负债表也存在修复的 空间，市政工程类项目有望加快推进，市政管网及减隔震实物工作量 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 20 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W16：全国房价延续小跌趋势，核心城市房价展现韧性 2025 年 3 月 70 城新房房价环比-0.1%，跌幅连续 4 个月持平，同比- 5.0%。一线、二线、三线城市环比分别+0.1%、+0.0%、-0.2%。新房 价格环比上涨 24 城（+6，较上月变化，下同），环比下跌 41 城（-4）。3 月 70 城二手房房价环比-0.2%，跌幅较上月小幅收窄，同比-7.3%。一 线、二线、三线城市环比分别+0.2%、-0.2%、-0.3%。二手房价格环比上 涨 10 城（+7），环比下跌 56 城（-9）。 全国新房二手房仍延续小跌趋势，核心城市房价展现韧性。具体看核心城 市新房价格方面，上海当月环比+0.7%继续领跑全国，深圳环比+0.1%涨 幅有所收窄，北京、广州环比小幅下降。二手房价格方面，上海当月环比 由负转正+0.4%，北京、深圳环比分别+0.5%、+0.3%，广州环比-0.2%。 值得关注的是，杭州当月二手房价格环比+1%领跑全国，整体看核心城市 房价韧性更强，全国其余多数城市仍在下行通道中。随 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In March, the growth of general fiscal revenue remained weak, while fiscal expenditure increased significantly. In the context of tariff policy shocks and limited urban investment financing, it is expected that fiscal policy will further strengthen in the future, including accelerating the issuance of government bonds within the budget and potentially expanding fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Revenue Side - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In March 2025, the monthly general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year (previous value -1.6%), with tax revenue down 2.2% year-on-year (previous value -3.9%) and non-tax revenue up 5.9% year-on-year (previous value 11.0%). Central general public budget revenue decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, while local general public budget revenue increased by 2.79% [1][11]. - **Tax Revenue**: In March, tax revenue was down 2.2% year-on-year. Among the four major taxes, domestic VAT increased by 4.9% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 1.1% year-on-year), domestic consumption tax increased by 9.6% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 0.3% year-on-year), corporate income tax increased by 16.0% year-on-year (1 - 2 months -10.4% year-on-year), and personal income tax dropped by 58.5% year-on-year. Export tax rebates increased by 8.3% year-on-year, tariffs decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, real estate-related taxes decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 63.2% year-on-year [2][13]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In March, government fund revenue decreased by 11.7% year-on-year (1 - 2 months -10.7% year-on-year), mainly due to weak land transfer revenue. From January to March, government fund revenue decreased by 11% year-on-year. Although high-frequency land transaction data improved at the beginning of the year, the sustainability is expected to be limited [3][15]. Expenditure Side - **General Public Budget Expenditure and Government Fund Expenditure**: In March, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.7% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 3.4% year-on-year), and government fund expenditure increased by 27.9% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 1.2% year-on-year). From January to March, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.2% year-on-year, and government fund expenditure increased by 11.1% year-on-year [3][17]. - **Fiscal Expenditure Structure**: In March, the growth rate of traditional infrastructure expenditure was low, and the increase was mainly concentrated in social and cultural education and debt interest payments. Infrastructure fiscal expenditure increased by 0.49% year-on-year, with significant differences among sub - items. Expenditure on education, social security and employment, and debt interest payments had relatively high growth rates [4][17]. Fiscal Deficit As of March, the cumulative general fiscal deficit was 2.3 trillion yuan. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current cumulative general fiscal deficit rate is 1.6%, higher than in previous years and close to 2020, indicating increased fiscal efforts [4][25]. Future Outlook In the context of tariff policy shocks and limited urban investment financing, it is expected that fiscal policy will further strengthen. This includes accelerating the issuance of special treasury bonds and special bonds, and there is still room for further expansion of fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds. The subsequent Politburo meeting is an important observation window [5][30].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 20 年 月 日 环保 加强新污染物与建筑垃圾管控，环境治理精细化 加强新污染物管控与建筑垃圾治理，推动生态环境质量提升。1、生态环 境部发布《关于加强重点行业涉新污染物建设项目环境影响评价工作的意 见》，提出禁止审批不符合新污染物管控要求的建设项目，要求优化原料、 工艺与治理措施，核算新污染物产排污情况，严格达标排放要求，强化跟 踪监测，并落实新化学物质登记要求。该政策标志着我国污染治理向"隐 形污染"精准攻坚阶段迈进，环境监测、工业污染治理及危废处理领域将 迎来新增量。建议关注在工业污染治理、环境监测设备方面具有核心竞争 力的企业，如聚光科技、雪迪龙等。2、生态环境部发布《建筑垃圾污染控 制技术规范》（征求意见稿），规范建筑垃圾产生、收集、运输、处理等 环节的污染控制，明确源头减量、分类收集、资源化利用等技术措施，推 动建筑垃圾治理进入精细化管理阶段。建议关注在建筑垃圾处理、资源化 利用方面具有技术优势的企业，如翰蓝环境、洪城环境等。 当周碳交易行情：本周（4.14-4.18）全国碳市场综合价格行情为：最高价 85.38 元/吨，最低价 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the electricity sector [3] Core Viewpoints - In March, national electricity consumption growth was 4.8%, with significant growth in the internet and automotive manufacturing sectors [10][12] - The future three-year coal power upgrade action plan emphasizes the importance of coal power upgrades and flexible adjustment capabilities [11][12] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In March, total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. By sector, the first, second, and third industries, along with urban and rural residents, consumed 106, 557.8, 148.4, and 111.4 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates of 9.9%, 3.8%, 8.4%, and 5.0% [12][65] - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to March was 23,846 billion kWh, up 2.5% year-on-year [12][66] Power Generation - In March, industrial power generation was 778 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with a narrowing decline in thermal power generation [12][10] - Water and nuclear power generation increased by 9.5% and 23.0% respectively, while wind and solar power generation growth slowed [12][10] Coal Power Upgrade Plan - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released a new coal power upgrade action plan for 2025-2027, focusing on enhancing existing units and developing new generation units with improved performance indicators [11][12] - Key upgrade requirements include deep peak regulation, load change rates, and clean carbon reduction measures [11][12] Investment Recommendations - Emphasize investment opportunities in the electricity sector, particularly in thermal power stocks such as Huadian International, Waneng Power, and Zhejiang Energy, as well as in leading companies in thermal power upgrade equipment like Qingda Environmental Protection [6][7] - Recommend focusing on undervalued green electricity sectors, including Hong Kong-listed green electricity and wind power operators [6][7]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 20 年 月 日 有色金属 避险与滞涨逻辑演绎，金价延续强势 黄金：ETF 黄金增持斜率提升，继续看好滞涨逻辑下黄金确定性。周内无重大宏观数据更新， 4 月 17 日鲍威尔出席芝加哥经济俱乐部活动讲话中释放偏鹰派言论："目前的趋势是失业率 和通胀水平将上升"、"美联储的职责是确保通胀预期不演变为持续性的通胀"。市场对此解 读偏鹰，造成 17 日黄金小幅回调，美股继续下跌。短期看，黄金上涨的动能在于：1）特朗 普关税政策已然对市场信心造成打击，黄金避险需求增加；2）央行与 ETF 购金支撑需求并 为市场提供信心，2 月以来 SPDR 黄金 ETF 增持黄金斜率显著提升，周增持 2.58 吨；3）美 国经济滞涨风险提升。中期来看，美国经济数据疲弱在特朗普超预期的关税政策公布前已初 现端倪，市场由特朗普胜选初期的"过热+通胀"逻辑转向滞涨，而回顾历史，1974-1975 年 和 1979-1980 年两轮典型的滞涨时期，黄金均有不俗表现。建议关注：紫金矿业、山东黄 金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 分析师 张航 执业证书编号：S0680524 ...