证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 20 年 月 日 建筑材料 关注内需刺激主线，等待政策落地 2025 年 4 月 14 日至 4 月 18 日建筑材料板块（SW）下跌 0.02%，其中 水泥（SW）下跌 0.09%，玻璃制造（SW）下跌 0.15%，玻纤制造（SW） 下跌 1.79%，装修建材（SW）上涨 0.73%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益-0.38%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为 0.02 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周国常会指出"要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展"， "扩大有效投资，大力提振民间投资积极性"等，后续内需刺激有望加码。 根据 wind 统计，2025 年 3 月地方政府债总发行量 9788.03 亿元，发行金 额同比 2024 年 3 月增长 55.5%，截至目前，2025 年一般债发行规模 0.47 万亿元，同比-0.10 万亿元，专项债发行规模 2.78 万亿元，同比+1.61 万 亿元。化债下加码政府财政压力有望减轻，企业资产负债表也存在修复的 空间，市政工程类项目有望加快推进，市政管网及减隔震实物工作量 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 20 年 月 日 建筑装饰 聚焦扩内需宽财政，继续推荐基建龙头/一带一路/钢结构/新疆煤 化工 本周核心观点：2025 年 1-3 月基建投资提速，预计主因前期密集发行的专项 债、化债等财政资金落地使用，其中中央资金重点支持的水利与电力投资持 续高增，显示中央加杠杆持续发力。在当前地产低迷，外需承压背景下，基 建是稳增长必选项之一。本周国务院总理在多场合表态要"扩内需"，后续增 量财政政策有望加快出台，重点关注 4 月底政治局会议定调。从财政政策发 力方向上看，一方面将加快现有财政政策落地实施，专项债、特别国债、特 殊再融资债等预计将显著加快发行和使用；另一方面有望根据需要扩充各类 政府债券额度，同时政策性金融等"准财政"工具也有望发力。后续基建资 金面有望持续改善，基建景气有望修复，建筑央国企收入与业绩有望提速。 重点推荐：1）受益国家战略腹地加快建设的西南交通基建龙头四川路桥 （25PE 9.5X，股息率 6.3%）；2）受益财政加码、基建景气修复的央国企龙 头中国建筑（PB-LF 0.50，股息率 4.1%）、中国交建（PB-LF 0 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 04 19 年 月 日 量化分析报告 择时雷达六面图：资金面有所弱化 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、" 宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生 成[-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比有所下降，宏观基本面中性，市场 的资金&趋势信号有所弱化信号偏空，拥挤度&反转指标显著偏多，综合打 分位于[-1,1]之间，当前的综合打分为 0.10 分，整体为中性偏多观点。当 前六面图各个维度的观点如下： 流动性。本周货币方向、货币强度、信用方向均发出看空信号，信用强 度发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为-0.50 分，综合来看发出看空信号。 经济面。本周增长方向、通胀方向与通胀强度指标发出看多信号，而增 长强度发出看空信号，当前经济面得分为 0.50 分，综合来看发出看多信 号。 估值面。由于市场上行，本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE ...

国产化继续加速，核心算力厂商迎基本面重大拐点 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 19 年 月 日 计算机 外部博弈持续加深，自主可控迎来新机遇。1）当地时间 2025 年 4 月 13 日，美 国商务部长卢特尼克表示，美政府 2025 年 4 月 11 日晚间宣布对一系列电子设备 免除关税，而这些相关产品将被归为半导体类别，为确保它们回归本土生产，美国 预计将在"一两个月内"出台专项"半导体关税"。当地时间 2025 年 4 月 15 日， 美国芯片制造商英伟达发布通知称，美国政府于 2025 年 4 月 9 日告知，该公司 H20 芯片出口到中国需要许可证，此后又于 2025 年 4 月 14 日告知，这些规定将 无限期实施。2）2025 年 4 月 11 日，中国半导体行业协会发布关于半导体产品 "原产地"认定规则的紧急通知，"集成电路"原产地按照四位税则号改变原则认 定，即流片地认定为原产地。中国半导体行业协会建议"集成电路"无论已封装或 未封装，进口报关时的原产地以"晶圆流片工厂"所在地为准进行申报。以美国 CPU 厂商英特尔为例，2024 年财年，英特尔在中国大陆 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the C-REITs sector [5][6]. Core Insights - The C-REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment and ongoing macroeconomic recovery in 2025, presenting investment opportunities [5]. - The report highlights that the C-REITs sector has already undergone valuation recovery in 2024, making timing crucial for secondary market investments [5]. - Weak-cycle assets continue to attract attention due to risk aversion, suggesting a focus on asset resilience and secondary market prices [5]. REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.84% this week, closing at 1074.3 points as of April 18 [10][12]. - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has risen by 11.00%, ranking first among various indices [2][10]. - The report notes that the real estate (Shenwan) index had the highest weekly increase of 3.40% [10]. REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs showed an upward trend, with a total market capitalization of approximately 188.15 billion yuan and an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [3][12]. - Among the listed REITs, 52 increased in value while 12 decreased, with an average weekly increase of 1.49% [3][12]. - The best-performing sectors included consumption infrastructure and warehousing logistics, while ecological and transportation infrastructure lagged [3][12]. REITs Trading Activity - The housing security sector exhibited the highest trading activity, with an average daily trading volume of 2.032 million shares and a turnover rate of 0.8% [4][12]. - The top three REITs by turnover rate were Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Industrial Park REIT, E Fund Shen High-Speed REIT, and Huatai Jiangsu Traffic Control REIT, each with a turnover rate of around 1.7% [4]. REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs showed a continuous trend, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT (11.6%), Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (10.9%), and Zhongjin Anhui Traffic Control REIT (9%) [4][12]. - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for listed REITs ranged from 0.7 to 1.7, with the top three being E Fund China Electric Power Clean Energy REIT, Huaxia Beijing Housing Security REIT, and Huaxia Shichuang Outlets REIT, all at 1.7 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of the "Protein Degradation 2.0" era, focusing on domestic companies involved in this field [12][18]. - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to experience a structural bull market in 2025, driven by supportive policies for commercial health insurance and innovation in drug development [14]. Summary by Sections Recent Review - During the week of April 14-18, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index decreased by 0.36%, outperforming the ChiNext Index but underperforming the CSI 300 Index [12]. - The market showed a recovery with small-cap innovative drugs performing well, while the overall pharmaceutical sector remained volatile [13]. Future Outlook - Short to medium-term strategies focus on self-sufficiency in research instruments and upstream components, deepening the exploration of innovative drugs, and identifying high-growth companies based on Q1 reports [14]. - By 2025, a positive trading atmosphere is anticipated, with structural growth likely in the pharmaceutical sector [14]. Investment Strategy - **Pharmaceutical Style Rhythm**: Key companies include innovative drug firms such as Sanofi, BeiGene, and others focusing on self-sufficiency like BGI Genomics and others [15]. - **Pharmaceutical Industry Logic**: Emphasis on innovative drugs with commercial potential, self-sufficiency in medical devices, and new technologies like AI in medicine [16]. Protein Degradation Sector - The report discusses the rapid advancement in the targeted protein degradation (TPD) field, with over 95 projects in clinical development globally, including 35 in China [24]. - Notable domestic companies in the TPD space include Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and others, with several new drugs recently approved for clinical trials [26][25]. Subsector Performance - The innovative drug index decreased by 0.60% during the week, while the generic drug sector saw a 1.80% increase, indicating a shift in market focus [36]. - The traditional Chinese medicine index outperformed the overall pharmaceutical index, highlighting a potential area for investment [43]. Key Events - The report notes significant events such as the approval of innovative drugs by companies like CanSino Biologics and the performance of various pharmaceutical firms in their quarterly reports [41][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - OpenAI has released two groundbreaking models, o3 and o4-mini, which enhance visual reasoning and tool usage capabilities, marking a significant leap in ChatGPT's intelligence [11][12]. - The MCP (Model Context Protocol) is gaining traction, aiming to standardize how large models access context, thereby accelerating the development of AI applications [3][31]. Summary by Sections OpenAI Model Releases - OpenAI launched o3 and o4-mini on April 16, showcasing advanced reasoning capabilities through image processing and tool utilization, setting new benchmarks in performance [11][12]. - o3 is noted for its superior performance in complex tasks, achieving a 20% reduction in significant errors compared to its predecessor, o1, particularly in programming and creative tasks [12][13]. - o4-mini is optimized for quick and cost-effective reasoning, outperforming o3-mini in various non-STEM tasks [12][13]. Visual Reasoning and Tool Usage - The new models can integrate images into their reasoning processes, allowing dynamic manipulation of images and collaboration with tools like Python for data analysis and web searches [19][23]. - They can generate detailed responses quickly, often within a minute, by effectively utilizing multiple tools to address complex queries [25][26]. MCP Influence and Ecosystem Development - MCP serves as a standardized protocol for connecting AI models to various tools and data sources, enhancing reliability and efficiency in AI systems [3][31]. - The protocol is being adopted by major companies, including Google and Tencent, which is expected to lower development barriers for AI applications [35][36]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on various sectors, including IAAS (e.g., Cambricon, Alibaba), garbage power generation (e.g., Wangneng Environment), and SAAS (e.g., Kingsoft Office, Yonyou Network) [4][36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 780 million yuan, up 28% year-on-year [1] - The digital energy business saw significant growth, with revenue from passenger vehicles reaching 7.1 billion yuan, a 31% increase year-on-year, while the digital and energy management segment achieved 1 billion yuan in revenue, up 47% year-on-year [1][3] - The company is expanding into the digital energy and robotics sectors, with expectations of a rapid market growth in data center temperature control and a projected revenue increase of 950 million yuan from new digital energy projects [3] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 20.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 7.0% [2] - In Q4 2024, the gross profit margin was 20.2%, with a net profit margin of 6.1%, impacted by asset impairment provisions [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 1.05 billion yuan, 1.36 billion yuan, and 1.67 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 14, and 12 times [3] Market Outlook - The global new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 17.53 million units in 2024, a 22% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in the Chinese market [1] - The Chinese data center market is projected to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2025, growing at 25% year-on-year, providing a substantial opportunity for the company's digital energy segment [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [3][6]. Core Insights - Indonesia's new regulations have increased the coal export mining rights tax rate by 1%, which is expected to impact miners' profitability. The tax rate will vary based on calorific value and mining method, with higher rates applicable when the coal reference price exceeds $90 per ton [2][3]. - The report highlights that Indonesia's non-tax state revenue from the mining and coal sector is projected to reach 140.5 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately $8.33 billion) in 2024, accounting for 52.1% of the country's non-tax revenue [2]. - The report suggests that some miners may shift towards domestic supply to mitigate tax pressure, although the domestic market's absorption capacity remains uncertain, potentially leading to production cuts and capacity constraints [2]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report notes fluctuations in global energy prices, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 7.31% to $67.96 per barrel and WTI crude oil futures increasing by 7.67% to $64.68 per barrel [1]. - Coal prices showed mixed trends, with Newcastle coal (6000K) FOB price at $95.1 per ton (up 0.2%), while European ARA coal price decreased by 0.7% to $99.9 per ton [1][34]. Key Companies - The report identifies key investment targets in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong growth potential [6]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their stock repurchase plans, indicating confidence in their future performance [3]. Market Trends - The report provides a graphical representation of coal mining sector trends, indicating a potential recovery in the market after recent declines [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal prices and regulatory changes in Indonesia, which could significantly impact the sector's dynamics [2][3].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 04 20 年 月 日 通信 情绪有波动，算力仍向前 近期市场情绪持续受关税不确定性扰动，避险情绪上升造成算力板块出现 较大波动，但 AI 行业的创新却悄然进入迅速迭代阶段。我们认为，从需 求侧看国内大模型军备竞赛仍在持续中，云厂商 Capex 仍侧重 AI，算力 内需并不会因为关税减弱。同时本周四台积电业绩说明会中发布指引与 1 月设定的目标完全一致，再次验证 AI 叙事并未发生改变，算力刚性需求 仍存在，本周新易盛将公布一季报，可重点关注。 【景气度验证：算力内需与台积电财报的启示】 国内算力需求增长仍持续，AI 商业模式闭环速度加速中。从国内算力需 求看，Deep Seek 对算力效率的改进提升 AI 行业景气度的逻辑并未发 生改变：头部互联网厂商如阿里巴巴、字节跳动等增加 Capex 并向 AI 基础设施倾斜，建设更大规模的算力集群以保持领先地位；中小企业 利用更低成本的 AI 大模型实现降本增效；运营商和 IDC 厂商为企业提 供算力支持。我们认为，AI 叙事并未改变，仍向技术突破、需求迅速 增长的方向前进，AI 算力产业链景气度仍处于 ...