Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the industry, highlighting strong growth potential and market leadership of the company in the dried fruit snack sector [5][6]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading brand in the dried fruit snack market in China, benefiting from the expansion of emerging sales channels and a robust product matrix [6][19]. - Revenue growth has accelerated, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.3% projected from 2022 to 2024, and a significant increase in net profit, which is expected to double over two years [5][19]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and sales channels, including direct sales, supermarkets, and membership stores, which are contributing to its rapid growth [6][43]. Financial Performance - Revenue increased from 11.7 billion yuan in 2022 to 16.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 22.2% in 2024 [5][19]. - Net profit rose from 0.7 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 46.9% [5][19]. - The gross margin decreased slightly, but the net margin improved, reaching 9.1% in 2024, up from 7.5% in 2023 [5][24]. Business Performance - The company has successfully developed a second growth curve through its product lines, with significant growth in its plum and jelly products [36][39]. - The dried plum snacks, plum products, and jelly products generated revenues of 9.7 billion yuan, 2.2 billion yuan, and 4.1 billion yuan respectively in 2024, with respective CAGRs of 9.7%, 35.5%, and 33.5% from 2022 to 2024 [39][40]. - The company has established a comprehensive sales channel network, leveraging both online and offline platforms, with emerging channels showing high growth rates [43][44]. Industry Situation - The demand for snack foods is expanding, with the dried fruit market, particularly for plums, experiencing high growth rates [75][76]. - The overall market for fruit snacks in China is projected to grow significantly, with the plum snack segment leading the growth [76][79]. - The natural jelly market is also benefiting from an increase in consumption scenarios, aligning with consumer trends towards healthier options [78][79].

- The China Securities Biotechnology Theme Index was launched on August 26, 2015, by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. The index selects listed company securities involved in gene diagnosis, biopharmaceuticals, blood products, and other human biotechnology as index samples to reflect the overall performance of biotechnology listed company securities[3][38] - The index sample space is the same as the China Securities All Index sample space, consisting of A-shares and depository receipts issued by red-chip companies that meet the following conditions: "(1) Non-ST, *ST securities; (2) Other securities: listed for more than one quarter, unless the average daily market value ranks in the top 30 since listing; (3) STAR Market and Beijing Stock Exchange securities: listed for more than one year and two years, respectively"[39] - The index sample selection method includes: (1) Ranking the securities in the sample space by average daily turnover over the past year and removing the bottom 20%; (2) Selecting biotechnology-related companies from the remaining securities as biotechnology theme candidates; (3) Ranking the candidates by average daily market value over the past year and selecting the top 50 securities as index samples[39] - The index's top ten constituent stocks are highly concentrated, focusing on the pharmaceutical industry. As of November 19, 2025, the top ten constituent stocks accounted for 55.26% of the total weight, forming a "CXO + innovative drugs + medical devices" golden triangle combination[40][41] - The index constituent stocks are evenly distributed across different market value ranges, with weights of 35.79% for stocks with a market value of over 100 billion, 44.24% for stocks with a market value between 200-1000 billion, and the rest distributed among other ranges[42][43] - The index constituent stocks are mainly concentrated in the biological medicine III, medical services, chemical preparations, and medical devices industries, with weights of 42.33%, 20.99%, 17.33%, and 11.97%, respectively[44][46] - The index constituent stocks have high exposure to concepts such as industry leaders, comprehensive private enterprises, main trading forces, dual circulation, fund heavy positions, and innovative drugs, with exposure rates of 70.56%, 64.78%, 64.58%, 62.60%, 62.48%, and 62.16%, respectively[47][48] - The index's current style is characterized by small market value, high liquidity, and high momentum. As of October 31, 2025, the index's market value style is significantly negatively exposed compared to the China Securities 800 Index, with higher liquidity and trading activity[48][51][52] - The index's PE valuation is near the historical average, and the PB valuation is near the historical -1 standard deviation, indicating a high safety margin and potential for upward valuation[53][54] - The index's profitability is outstanding, with expected revenue growth rates of 6.54%, 6.00%, and 13.76% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, and expected net profit growth rates of 52.09%, 18.58%, and 24.11% for the same years[55][56][57][58]

Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive advantage of Tabo (滔搏) in the retail sector, emphasizing its strong retail capabilities and high dividend payouts to investors [4][5] - The report projects Tabo's revenue and net profit for FY2025 to FY2027, indicating a slight decline in revenue but a recovery in net profit growth by FY2027 [4][5] Company Overview - Tabo is identified as the largest sports retail and service platform in China, collaborating with major brands such as Nike and Adidas [4] - The company experienced a revenue decline of 7% in FY2025 and a projected decline of 6% in FY2026H1, with net profit dropping by 42% and 10% respectively [4][5] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Tabo are set at 946 billion, 953 billion, and 1,005 billion RMB for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.2%, 0.8%, and 5.5% [4] - The net profit estimates are 37.1 billion, 52.8 billion, and 61 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of -8.7%, 42.4%, and 15.5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Tabo, citing its robust dividend payout history of 107.3% since its IPO in 2019 and a current cash position of 2.54 billion RMB [5] - The expected price-to-earnings ratio for FY2026 is 14.6, with a dividend yield of 7% [5] Industry Context - The report discusses the broader retail environment, noting challenges such as fluctuating consumer demand and the need for effective e-commerce strategies [5] - It emphasizes the importance of Tabo's strong brand partnerships and retail efficiency in maintaining its competitive edge in the market [4][5]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 21 年 月 日 宏观点评 迟到的超预期——9 月美国非农就业点评 事件：北京时间 11 月 20 日 21:30，美国公布 9 月非农就业数据。 核心结论：美国 9 月新增非农就业超预期，失业率小幅上升。数据公 布后，美联储降息预期变化不大，12 月降息概率维持 30%左右。本次 非农数据是 12 月议息会议前的最后一份数据，未能对 12 月是否降息 给出明确信号，一定程度上加剧了市场不确定性，导致风险偏好承压。 继续提示：美国新增非农就业可能接近拐点，从经济基本面角度看2026 年降息空间有限，但需关注主席换届对货币政策独立性的影响。 1、美国 9 月新增非农就业超预期，前值小幅下修，失业率小幅上升。 >整体就业表现：美国 9 月新增非农就业 11.9 万，高于预期值 5 万； 8 月数据由+2.2 万下修至-0.4 万，7 月数据由+7.9 万下修至+7.2 万， 前两月合计下修 3.3 万。失业率 4.4%，略高于预期值和前值 4.3%， 连续 3 个月上升。劳动参与率 62.4%，略高于预期值和前值 62.3%。 每周平均工时 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the coal mining sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes three key viewpoints regarding the coal market dynamics and investment strategies [4][9] - It highlights that the recent price adjustments are a normal digestion of previous rapid increases, and the core logic of rising coal prices due to supply constraints remains unchanged [4] - The report anticipates that as demand (whether speculative or real) activates, coal prices will rise, with expectations for prices to peak at the end of the year, potentially exceeding market expectations [4] Summary by Sections Production - In October, the raw coal production decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with an output of 410 million tons, maintaining the same level as September [15][8] - For the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative production reached 3.97 billion tons, reflecting a growth of 1.5% year-on-year [15] - The forecast for 2025 suggests that the total thermal coal production may reach approximately 3.88 billion tons, with a growth rate narrowing to around 1.4% [15] Imports - In October, coal imports fell by 9.75% year-on-year, totaling 41.73 million tons, which is a decrease of 4.51 million tons compared to the same month last year [21][8] - For the first ten months of 2025, total coal imports amounted to 38.76 million tons, down 11% year-on-year [21] - The report predicts that the annual thermal coal import level may decline to around 38 million tons, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year [21] Demand - In October, the industrial power generation increased by 7.9% year-on-year, with a total of 800.2 billion kWh generated [24][8] - The industrial thermal power generation saw a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, reversing a decline of 5.4% in September [24] - Conversely, crude steel production in October dropped by 12.07% year-on-year, amounting to 72 million tons, with the decline accelerating compared to September [37][8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-performing stocks, particularly in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yancoal [45][9] - It suggests a shift towards second-tier stocks as coal prices continue to rise, emphasizing the importance of selecting stocks based on performance and valuation [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target valuation of HKD 110 billion, corresponding to a 20x P/E for 2026 and 0.9x P/S for 2026, with a target price of HKD 77 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong growth in both domestic and international markets, with Q3 sales reaching 174,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 102%, leading to a revenue growth of 97.3% to CNY 19.45 billion [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 14.5%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to scale effects, product mix optimization, and ongoing cost management [1]. - The company aims for a sales target of 1 million units and a profit of CNY 5 billion by 2026, supported by new model launches and an expanding sales network [2][4]. Sales and Revenue Growth - Q3 sales included 17,397 units exported and 156,000 units sold domestically, with the newly launched B01 model achieving over 10,000 deliveries for three consecutive months [2][3]. - The company plans to introduce four new models by 2026, enhancing its product lineup across various price segments [2]. International Expansion - The company is the leading new force in exports, with Q3 exports totaling 17,397 units and a cumulative export of 37,772 units for the first three quarters [3]. - Strong overseas demand is evident, with October orders reaching 12,000 units and expected to exceed 15,000 units in November [3]. - The company has established over 700 sales and service points across 30 international markets, with plans for local production in Malaysia and Europe by 2026 [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts sales of 610,000, 1,020,000, and 1,320,000 units for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with projected revenues of CNY 67.54 billion, CNY 112.95 billion, and CNY 151.02 billion [4][5]. - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 1 billion, CNY 5.07 billion, and CNY 11.28 billion, respectively, with net profit margins improving to 1.5%, 4.5%, and 7.5% [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company plans to acquire a 24.3% stake in Ningbo Yinqiu Technology Co., Ltd. for 390 million yuan to enhance its precision bearing production capacity and promote synergy in its robotics business [1] - The acquisition is expected to expand the company's precision bearing business and improve its overall competitiveness and profitability through collaboration in key areas such as automotive components and humanoid robot precision bearings [1] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with production bases in Xinchang and Thailand, and is establishing localized service capabilities in North America to support future growth [2] - The company has established a robotics division to capitalize on the upcoming mass production in the robotics industry, focusing on harmonic reducers and other related products [2] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 952 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23% [4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 218 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.5% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated to be 0.94 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 90.3 times [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase to 11.3% by 2025 [4]

Group 1: China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) - The company is positioned as a leading player in the duty-free market, benefiting from policy support for duty-free consumption, with growth potential in offshore, port, and city duty-free sales [2] - The company is enhancing its online, store, and supply chain capabilities, indicating a long-term strategic layout that is expected to yield benefits as domestic travel and consumption gradually recover [2] - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 54.69 billion, 61.02 billion, and 65.67 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.72 billion, 4.65 billion, and 5.32 billion yuan, translating to EPS of 1.80, 2.25, and 2.57 yuan per share [2] Group 2: XPeng Motors (09868.HK) - The company is experiencing pressure on its main business profitability but has exceeded expectations in technical collaborations, with a strong product cycle and rapid growth overseas [3] - Sales forecasts for the company are approximately 440,000, 700,000, and 910,000 vehicles for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with total revenues projected at 77.3 billion, 124.3 billion, and 154.2 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The collaboration with Volkswagen is expected to deepen, with anticipated profits of around 2.7 billion yuan from this partnership in 2026, and the overall valuation of the company is estimated at 228.3 billion HKD [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a strong product cycle, overseas expansion, advancements in autonomous driving, and emerging business opportunities in robotics and Robotaxi [7]. - The company delivered 116,007 vehicles in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 149%, leading to a revenue growth of 102% to 20.38 billion yuan [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 20.1%, with a notable improvement in profitability as the net loss narrowed significantly [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, with automotive sales revenue of 18.1 billion yuan and service revenue of 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 105% and 78% respectively [1]. - The company’s Q3 net loss was 380 million yuan, a significant reduction compared to previous periods, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 150 million yuan, narrowing by 90% year-on-year [1]. - The projected total revenue for Q4 is expected to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [2]. Product and Market Outlook - The company plans to launch the X9 super range extender model on November 20, with additional models set to be released in early 2026 [3]. - The overseas market is showing strong growth, with Q1-Q3 overseas deliveries reaching 29,706 units, a 79% increase year-on-year [4]. - The company is enhancing its autonomous driving capabilities with the introduction of the VLA 2.0 model, which significantly improves performance in complex driving scenarios [5]. Future Projections - The company forecasts total vehicle sales of approximately 440,000, 700,000, and 910,000 units for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with total revenues projected to reach 773 billion yuan by 2025 [7][8]. - The gross margin is expected to remain around 20% for Q4, with a long-term target of achieving a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.1% by 2027 [2][8].

Core Insights - The October fiscal data shows a clear divergence in revenue and expenditure, with tax revenue continuing to grow significantly, likely due to improvements in prices affecting nominal variables [2] - Non-tax revenue growth has hit a five-year low, indicating challenges in revitalizing state-owned assets [2] - General fiscal expenditure growth has notably slowed, with the possibility of either accelerating spending by year-end or rolling over to next year, which will directly impact next year's fiscal spending strength [2] - Land transfer revenue has again shown negative growth, putting pressure on land finance [2] - The urgent task for fiscal policy is to implement existing policies effectively to generate more tangible work output [2] Revenue Analysis - From January to October, fiscal revenue has increased by 0.8% year-on-year, surpassing the initial budget growth target by 0.1%, indicating that achieving the annual target is feasible with a required decline of only 3.7% in November and December [3] - Tax revenue growth has slightly underperformed expectations, and adjustments in the revenue structure have been insufficient [3] - Government fund revenue needs to achieve a 5.3% year-on-year growth in the last two months, with potential for a year-end surge in land transfer revenue [3] Expenditure Analysis - Fiscal expenditure from January to October has increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while the annual budget anticipates a 4.4% increase, necessitating a significant 12.9% growth in the last two months [3] - Government fund expenditure is expected to require a 40.3% year-on-year increase, suggesting a potential for accelerated spending in the coming months, including possible year-end spending spikes [3] Future Outlook - The report maintains the view that fiscal policy in 2026 will likely be proactive and expansionary, focusing on "investment in things" and "investment in people," with an expected fiscal expansion similar to 2025 [2] - The anticipated fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is around 4%, with special bonds projected at 5 trillion and special treasury bonds at approximately 2 trillion, leading to an expected total fiscal expenditure of 43 trillion, an increase of 1.13 trillion from 2025 [2]