证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 石头科技（688169.SH） 积极市场策略下收入进一步提速，短期盈利水平下滑 风险提示：消费恢复不及预期、行业竞争加剧、新品开拓不及预期。 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 8,654 | 11,945 | 16,060 | 19,355 | 22,995 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 30.5 | 38.0 | 34.5 | 20.5 | 18.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,051 | 1,977 | 2,080 | 2,542 | 3,071 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 73.3 | -3.6 | 5.2 | 22.2 | 20.8 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元/股） | 11.10 | 10.70 | 11.26 | 13.76 | 16.63 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 18.0 | 15.4 | 14.1 | 14.9 ...

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 新天绿能（600956.SH） 风电量增价稳，业绩具备增长弹性 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告。公司 2025 年一季度实现营业收入 69.11 亿元，同比减少 12.6%；实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 9.54 亿元，同比增长 14.71%；扣非归母净利润 9.52 亿元，同比+15.38%； 经营活动产生的现金流量净额同比+131.45%，基本每股收益 0.23 元， 同比增长 15.0%。其中，天然气售气量同比下滑影响营业收入，风电 电量修复增长带动利润提升。 风电量增价稳，装机增量有望带动增长。电量方面，2025 年一季度公 司风电实现发电量 44.63 亿度，同比+9.44%；风电上网电量 43.65 亿 度，同比+9.55%。实现光伏发电量 0.81 亿度，同比+107.27%；上网 电量 0.78 亿度，同比+105.58%。公司市场化交易电量 19.86 亿千瓦 时，交易电量占比 44.71%，同比增加 9.04pct。电价方面，公司平均 上网电价（不含税）为 0.43 元/千瓦时，较去年同期持平。一季 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is progressing smoothly in new business initiatives, aiming to become a supplier of intelligent chassis systems [1] - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 9.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and a net profit of 1.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36% [3] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and a net profit of 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29% [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 12.619 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28%, and a net profit of 1.556 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.7% [4] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 18.0%, down 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company has a strong order backlog and is expanding its product lines, including electric control steering systems and air suspension systems [3] Market Demand and Expansion - The domestic demand for new energy vehicles in Q1 2025 reached 3.075 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47% [1] - The company is expanding its overseas presence with R&D and production bases in the US and Mexico, which is expected to support future growth [1][2] - The company has successfully developed and validated several new products, including the WCBS 2.0B platform and electric control steering products [3] Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 1.556 billion yuan in 2025, 2.0 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.58 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 18, and 14 times [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Railway Construction Corporation (601186.SH) [4][6] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance remains under pressure due to fluctuating gross margins and a need for improvement in traditional infrastructure investments. However, cash flow has shown some improvement [1][2] - The company has a substantial backlog of contracts, amounting to 78,613 billion, which is 7.4 times the revenue expected for 2024, indicating a strong order book that could stabilize future revenue as new funding sources are deployed [1] - New contracts in emerging sectors such as mining and electricity have seen significant growth, while overseas orders continue to increase [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 256.8 billion, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.15 billion, down 14.5% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 7.51%, a decline of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio improved slightly to 4.15% [2] - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 38.95 billion, which is an improvement compared to a larger outflow in the previous year [2] Contract and Order Summary - In Q1 2025, the new contract value was 492.8 billion, down 10.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure projects accounting for 85% of the total new contracts [3] - Emerging engineering orders, particularly in railways, mining, and electricity, have seen substantial increases, with growth rates of 66%, 139%, and 29% respectively [3] - Domestic and overseas new contract values were 448.7 billion and 44.2 billion respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 13% for domestic contracts but a 30% increase for overseas contracts [3] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 21.5 billion, 21.6 billion, and 21.9 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.58, 1.59, and 1.61 [4]

Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a key theme in the current economic landscape [1] Research Insights Machinery Equipment - XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) reported a total revenue of CNY 91.66 billion in 2024, a decrease of 1.28% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.2% to CNY 5.976 billion. In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 10.92% to CNY 26.815 billion, and net profit rose by 26.37% to CNY 2.022 billion, with a net profit margin of 7.6% [6] Construction Decoration - China Railway (601390.SH) faced a 19% decline in net profit in Q1 2025, attributed to pressure in traditional infrastructure sectors, although overseas orders showed strong growth. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is CNY 28.1 billion, CNY 28.3 billion, and CNY 28.9 billion, respectively [7] Steel - Hunan Steel (000932.SZ) saw a significant improvement in Q1 2025, with net profit increasing by 43.55% to CNY 562 million. The overall profitability of the steel industry is recovering, with a gross profit margin expected to improve [8] Automotive - Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. (002126.SZ) reported a revenue of CNY 3.4 billion in Q1 2025, a 15% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 11% to CNY 210 million. The company is well-positioned for growth in the automotive sector [11] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) achieved a revenue of CNY 79.118 billion in Q1 2025, a 10.06% increase, with net profit rising by 15.09% to CNY 5.487 billion. The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory [14] Food and Beverage - Hengshun Vinegar (600305.SH) reported a revenue of CNY 626 million in Q1 2025, a 35.97% increase, with net profit rising by 2.36% to CNY 57 million. The company is focused on strengthening its core business and expanding into new markets [15] Construction Materials - Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ) faced challenges in Q1 2025, with a decline in performance due to reduced demand in new construction areas. The company is optimizing its distribution channels [22] Power - Zhejiang Energy Power (600023.SH) reported stable performance in Q1 2025, with revenue projected to be CNY 87.698 billion in 2025, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year. Net profit is expected to be CNY 6.25 billion [20] Textile and Apparel - Jian Sheng Group (603558.SH) reported a 2% increase in revenue in Q1 2025, but net profit decreased by 27%. The company is adjusting its production capacity to match orders [29] Coal - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) reported a revenue of CNY 90.26 billion in Q1 2025, a decrease of 14.46%, with net profit down by 28.33% to CNY 6.81 billion. The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth of 2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 27% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to see healthy growth in orders for cotton socks in 2025, despite a slight decline in Q1 2025 due to customer order shipment schedules [2]. - The company is expanding its overseas integrated production capacity, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive strength in the medium to long term [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 560 million yuan, with a net profit of 60 million yuan, reflecting a decrease in net profit margin by 4.3 percentage points to 10.7% [1]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 26.8% in Q1 2025 [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 340 million, 388 million, and 441 million yuan respectively, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 9 times for 2025 [4][5]. Business Outlook - The company is focusing on matching production capacity with orders, particularly in the cotton socks and seamless apparel segments, with expectations of improved profitability in the seamless apparel business [2]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in Vietnam, with projects expected to be completed in 2024, which will further enhance its production capabilities [3]. - The company has a solid cash flow management strategy, with a net operating cash flow of 200 million yuan in Q1 2025, approximately 3.3 times the net profit for the same period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown stable performance with a revenue of 6.42 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 444 million yuan, down 1.98% year-on-year [1] - The decline in electricity demand and prices has been partially offset by falling costs and new installed capacity, with the average coal price in Q1 2025 dropping to 733 yuan per ton, down 174 yuan year-on-year [2] - The company is expanding its installed capacity with new projects, including a 1.32 million kW unit in Xinjiang and a 1 million kW coal-fired unit that began operation in March 2025, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [3] Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 29.06 billion yuan, 29.63 billion yuan, and 29.58 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.4%, 1.9%, and -0.2% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.12 billion yuan, 2.35 billion yuan, and 2.41 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.04, and 1.06 yuan per share [3] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 7.9, 7.2, and 7.0 times [3] Market Context - The company is positioned as a leading power provider in Anhui Province, with ongoing expansion in both traditional and renewable energy sectors [3] - The average electricity price in Anhui for 2025 is projected to decline by approximately 5.35% to 412.97 yuan per MWh compared to 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gansu Energy Chemical [3][5] Core Views - The company is experiencing a decline in both coal sales and prices, with a significant drop in net profit expected for 2025 [2][3] - The company is actively advancing its coal-electricity integration strategy, with several projects under construction that will enhance its production capacity [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 9.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and a net profit of 1.214 billion yuan, down 30.1% year-on-year [4] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a drastic decline in net profit to 51 million yuan, a 90.48% drop year-on-year and a 72.04% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 360 million yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 30%, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.8% based on the closing price on April 28 [3] Production and Capacity - The company has successfully launched the Jingtai Baiyanzi coal mine, which is expected to improve coal price elasticity due to its high-quality coal [2] - As of the end of 2024, the company has three pairs of mines under construction, with a total planned production capacity of 6.9 million tons [2] - The total coal production capacity is expected to reach 23.14 million tons and power generation capacity to 4,829 MW upon completion of ongoing projects [2] Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 465 million yuan, 915 million yuan, and 1.206 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.5X, 14.0X, and 10.6X [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 14 times for 2025 [6][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue is projected to grow by 13% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 4 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to decline by 14% to 780 million yuan [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its main brand's competitiveness and nurturing a second growth curve through the development of sub-brands [4][6]. - E-commerce is experiencing high-quality and rapid growth, while offline stores are expanding steadily [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's revenue is expected to be 4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 780 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 19.5%, down 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue is projected to be 1.29 billion yuan, with a net profit of 330 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8% [2]. Sales Channels - In 2024, sales revenue from various channels is expected to be: e-commerce 263 million yuan (+35%), direct sales 2.568 billion yuan (+7.2%), franchise 1.139 billion yuan (+24.1%), and others 34 million yuan (+19.9%) [3]. - The company plans to open approximately 100 new stores in 2025, contributing to its growth strategy [3]. Brand Strategy - The main brand is focusing on youth-oriented marketing and product differentiation, while the sub-brand K&C is progressing well in store openings [4]. - The company is enhancing its brand image through strategic partnerships and sponsorships in sports [4]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - The company has maintained healthy cash flow management, with operating cash flow of 750 million yuan in 2024, approximately 1.0 times the net profit [5]. - Inventory levels increased by 34.3% year-on-year to 950 million yuan by the end of 2024, with inventory turnover days improving [5]. Financial Projections - The company expects steady revenue growth of over 10% in 2025, driven by ongoing store expansion and new brand investments [5]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 707 million yuan, 797 million yuan, and 890 million yuan, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to improve its performance through multi-channel cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 [1][2] - The company has significant coal resource advantages, with a total coal resource reserve of 6.53 billion tons and additional exploration rights acquired for 0.953 billion tons of coal and 55.61 million tons of bauxite [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.25 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 40.2%, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.4% based on the closing price on April 28 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 45.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.108 billion yuan, down 54.1% year-on-year [1][4] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 is projected at 9.026 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.46% year-on-year, with a net profit of 681 million yuan, down 28.33% year-on-year [1] - The company’s total coal production for 2024 is expected to be 47.22 million tons, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal is projected to be 25.6 million tons, a decrease of 20% year-on-year [8] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 is expected to be 1,037 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.0% year-on-year, while the average cost is projected to be 495 yuan per ton, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year [8] Future Earnings Estimates - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2 billion yuan, 2.3 billion yuan, and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.9X, 15.8X, and 14.7X [3][4]