Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Changshu Bank, with a target price of 9.59 CNY, compared to the current price of 7.87 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - Changshu Bank's performance remains strong, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.10% to 6.062 billion CNY and a net profit growth of 13.51% to 1.969 billion CNY in the first half of 2025 [2][6]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 489.53% [2][6]. - The bank has initiated a mid-term dividend with a payout ratio of 25.3%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 12.028 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.20% [8]. - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 4.320 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 13.30% [8]. - The bank's total assets are expected to grow to 406.872 billion CNY by 2025, with a loan total of 255.314 billion CNY [9][12]. Asset Quality Summary - The non-performing loan ratio is projected to remain stable at 0.77% for 2025, with a provision coverage ratio expected to decrease to 441.60% [10][11]. - The bank's credit impairment losses are anticipated to increase by 11.2% to 1.494 billion CNY [6][10]. Dividend and Capital Management - The bank has announced a cash dividend of 0.15 CNY per share, totaling 4.97 billion CNY, which represents 25.27% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [6][7]. - The bank's capital management strategy includes a potential redemption of convertible bonds, which could support capital replenishment and facilitate healthy credit issuance [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market Review: The overall market showed a volatile upward trend in July. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.7%, and the average return of active equity - oriented funds was 4.6%, with institutions slightly outperforming the market. Trading volume increased significantly, with the average daily trading volume of the whole A - shares in July reaching 1.6 trillion yuan (compared to 1.4 trillion yuan from January to June this year). The cycle + growth sectors led, and the dumbbell configuration adjusted. In terms of style, small - cap growth continued to dominate. Fund heavy - holding stocks and the non - changing - face sub - new stock portfolio significantly outperformed, while strong - performing stocks and the quantitative sub - new stock portfolio significantly underperformed [4]. - Market Outlook: Wait for the second half of the physical re - inflation. Focus on ten - bagger stocks, quantitative sub - new stocks, and reversal strategies. The report adheres to the view that before the return of physical inflation, the stock market will be the carrier of surplus liquidity. As inflation returns with the progress of "anti - involution", the bull market may gradually evolve from the first half of financial re - inflation to the second half of physical re - inflation. Some positive changes have occurred, such as the year - on - year growth of M1 (old caliber) turning positive for two consecutive months. If the decline of PPI significantly narrows in the next 6 - 12 months, the repair of corporate EPS will become a new driving force. In the current stage of continuous monetary easing but without confirmed EPS repair, it is recommended to focus on the combination of ten - bagger stocks, quantitative sub - new stocks, and reversal strategies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Growth - type Strategies 3.1.1 Sub - new Stock Combinations - Non - changing - face Sub - new Stock Combination: If a stock's ROE and net profit growth rate attributable to the parent company in the year of listing and the following year are higher than the average of the three years before listing, it is considered that the stock's fundamentals continue to perform well. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 311% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 6% in the past month. The screening criteria include that the net profit growth rate of the year of listing and the following year is greater than the average of the three years before listing, and the ROE of the year of listing and the following year is greater than the average ROE of the three years before listing multiplied by an adjustment coefficient. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Yifang Biotech and Yahong Pharmaceutical [16][17]. - Quantitative Sub - new Stock Combination: Through quantitative back - testing, key factors affecting the performance of sub - new stocks are found. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 324% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 3% in the past month. The screening criteria include ROE (TTM) in the top 40%, net profit growth rate attributable to the parent company in the top 40%, sales gross margin (TTM) in the top 40%, sales expense ratio (TTM) in the top 40%, and total market capitalization less than 20 billion yuan. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Tiancheng Technology and Zhongrun Optics [21][22]. 3.1.2 Ten - bagger Stock Combinations - Ten - bagger Stock Individual Stock Combination: Special genes of ten - bagger stocks are searched from five perspectives: price movement, company, performance, valuation, and industry, and screening criteria for potential ten - bagger stocks in the future are constructed accordingly. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 176% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and no excess return in the past month. The screening criteria involve multiple aspects such as maximum increase, management compensation, major shareholder's pledge ratio, financial indicators, and market capitalization. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Boke New Materials and Jack Co., Ltd. [28][29]. - Ten - bagger Stock Fund Manager Combination: Starting from the perspective of fund managers, their aesthetic preferences and trading behaviors are analyzed to screen out 20 potential ten - bagger stocks. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 44% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 1% in the past month. The screening criteria are based on the frequency of ten - bagger stocks held by funds in the past 10 quarters. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Dongshan Precision and Wuxi AppTec [36][37]. 3.2 Value - type Strategies 3.2.1 High - dividend Stock Combination - The high - dividend strategy is a relatively mature strategy overseas. A high - dividend stock combination constructed in the CSI 300 index has also achieved significant excess returns. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 133% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 2% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 20 stocks with the highest dividend yield from the CSI 300 index constituents, and the portfolio is re - balanced on April 30 every year. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Lu'an Environmental Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [46]. 3.2.2 High Free - cash - flow Return Combination - In the era of a stock economy, companies shift from pursuing scale to pursuing profit and cash flow. A combination is constructed from the perspectives of "high free - cash - flow return" and "low investment and high profit distribution to shareholders". Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 243% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 2% in the past month. The screening criteria involve free - cash - flow return, dividend + share - repurchase ratio, capital expenditure ratio, and net working - capital increase ratio. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Yabao Pharmaceutical and Shantui Construction Machinery [54][55]. 3.2.3 PEG and PB - ROE Combinations - PEG Combination: The PEG strategy comprehensively considers the matching of valuation and growth. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 120% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 2% in the past month. The screening criteria include that the stock's PE/G is lower than the median of its Shenwan primary industry, positive PE, positive net profit growth rate in the past three years and the next two years, low standard deviation of net profit growth rate, and more than one - year listing time. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Tianfu Communication and Tebao Bio - Pharm [65]. - PB - ROE Combination: The PB - ROE strategy also considers the matching of valuation and profitability, and is more applicable to value - type stocks in cyclical and financial real - estate industries. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 63% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 2% in the past month. The screening criteria include that the stock's PB/ROE is lower than the median of its Shenwan primary industry, excluding stocks with negative ROE. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include Shengde Xintai and New China Life Insurance [72][73]. 3.3 Momentum - type Strategies 3.3.1 Buying Strong - performing Stocks Combination - The strategy of buying strong - performing stocks is based on the idea of trend investment. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of - 155% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 4% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 100 stocks with the highest monthly gains and exclude ST stocks, and the portfolio is re - balanced on the first trading day of each month. The stocks with high monthly gains in July include GuangShengTang and Shangwei New Materials [81][82]. 3.3.2 Reversal Strategy Combination - The reversal strategy aims to bet on the inflection point of individual stocks, based on the mean - reversion concept. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of 190% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of - 2% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 100 stocks with the highest monthly losses and exclude ST stocks, and the portfolio is re - balanced on the first trading day of each month. The stocks with high monthly losses in July include Yuandao Communication and Shanda Electric Power [92][93]. 3.3.3 Buying Fund Heavy - holding Stocks Combination - The idea of buying fund heavy - holding stocks is to "copy the homework", aiming to build a safety margin by following the market consensus in a weak market. Since 2010, it has achieved an excess return of - 44% compared to the Wind All - A Index, and an excess return of 7% in the past month. The screening criteria are to select the top 20 stocks held by three types of active equity - oriented funds, and the portfolio is re - balanced at the end of each quarter. The stocks in the current pool with high monthly gains include New H3C Technologies and Zhongji Innolight [100][101].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.11 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported steady growth in revenue and profit, with H1 2025 revenue reaching 9.398 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.63%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 951 million CNY, up 28.98% year-on-year [2]. - The company continues to deepen its integrated supply chain strategy, which is expected to enhance profitability and operational efficiency [9]. - The revenue from phosphate fertilizers has steadily increased, with the proportion of new fertilizers rising, contributing to improved gross margins [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 18.21%, an increase of 2.48 percentage points year-on-year, with specific segments showing varied performance: phosphate fertilizers at 19.81%, conventional compound fertilizers at 12.56%, and new compound fertilizers at 24.48% [9]. - The company has been expanding its production capacity for new fertilizers, including a 350,000-ton/year project in Xinjiang and a 1 million-ton/year project in Bengbu [9]. - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a projected revenue growth rate of 9.7% in 2025, with net profit expected to grow by 21.7% [5][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully increased its market share in new fertilizer products, with sales growing from 548,500 tons in 2018 to 1,380,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 16.63% [9]. - The strategic focus on product innovation and market expansion is expected to continue driving revenue and profit growth, reinforcing the company's competitive position in the industry [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the yellow wine industry Core Insights - The yellow wine industry is experiencing a revival, driven by its health benefits and cultural significance, aligning with new consumer trends towards health and quality [8][9] - The industry is currently in a phase of stock competition, with market concentration increasing among leading companies [21][31] - The yellow wine market is primarily concentrated in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions, which account for approximately 75% of the total production [38][41] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report focuses on the yellow wine industry, analyzing its current state and exploring effective paths for value reconstruction [8] 2. Overview of Yellow Wine - Yellow wine is one of the three ancient wines globally, with a history dating back over 9,000 years, deeply intertwined with Chinese culture [9][10] - It is defined as a low-alcohol fermented beverage made from various grains, with an alcohol content of 14%-20% [10][11] 3. Industry Development Status - The yellow wine industry is characterized by a small market share, accounting for less than 2% of the total wine sales in China as of 2023 [21][24] - The number of large-scale yellow wine enterprises has decreased by approximately 28% from 2016 to 2023, indicating a trend towards market concentration among leading firms [21][26] - The industry faces challenges such as limited national promotion, reliance on traditional distribution channels, and an aging consumer demographic [23][43][45] 4. Restructuring the Value of the Yellow Wine Industry - The industry is entering a golden period for value reconstruction, focusing on high-end product positioning, innovation, and cultural empowerment [8][23] - Companies are actively developing new products to cater to younger consumers, such as fruit-flavored and health-oriented yellow wines [50] - There is a shift from product consumption to cultural consumption, leveraging the historical and cultural significance of yellow wine to attract younger demographics [50] 5. Future Outlook for the Industry - The yellow wine industry is expected to enter a phase of value enhancement, with initial signs of transformation becoming evident [8][21] - Despite challenges in market penetration and consumer recognition, the industry is poised for sustainable growth as it overcomes existing difficulties [8][21]

Core Insights - The overall recovery of actively managed public funds has reached 95% since the last bull market peak. A 5% increase in the equity fund index could correspond to a 5% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, targeting around 3800 points [9][32][40] - Among the 3 trillion new funds, the thematic funds have a scale of 500 billion, with consumption funds at 40%, manufacturing funds at 31%, and pharmaceutical funds at 19%. The new funds have faced greater pressure, with an overall recovery to an average of 94% of the initial net value, while the pharmaceutical funds have returned to positive, consumption funds at 82%, and manufacturing funds at 88% [9][46] - The asset allocation of Chinese residents is primarily concentrated in housing and stocks, with the adjustments in the stock and real estate markets over the past three years being the main reason for the shrinkage of residents' balance sheets. Stabilizing these markets is crucial for improving residents' income [9][10][22] - Compared to real estate, the stock market is a key foundation for the future recovery of residents' balance sheets and the enhancement of property income. The current recovery of the 3 trillion new funds reflects the significant impact of this bull market on the repair of residents' balance sheets [10][23] Fund Performance Analysis - The performance of old funds has been significantly lower than that of new funds, with old funds showing an average net value return of -12%, while new funds have achieved an average return of 2%. The disparity in returns is primarily due to the higher base of net value calculations for old funds [38][40] - As of August 6, 2025, the overall average return of new and old funds has improved by 25 percentage points since the low in January 2024, with old funds recovering by 20 percentage points and new funds by 29 percentage points [40][41] - The analysis of thematic funds indicates that the performance of new funds in thematic sectors has been under pressure, with the average net value return for thematic funds in old funds at -17% and for new funds at -6% [46][51] Market Dynamics - The stock market's role as a vehicle for excess savings is emphasized, with the potential for an influx of 10 trillion yuan into the stock market if it returns to the average ratio of the past five years [10][12] - The report highlights the importance of policy support in stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, which has been a focus since September 2024, aiming to restore residents' balance sheets and enhance property income [10][22] - The recovery of residents' financial confidence is evident, with personal housing loan balances showing a positive trend after a period of decline, indicating a shift back to an expansion state for residents' balance sheets [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Runben Co., Ltd. with a target price of 43.5 CNY per share [1]. Core Viewpoints - Runben Co., Ltd. is transitioning from a mosquito repellent leader to a comprehensive brand in baby and child care products, with plans to expand into the youth market. The company aims to build a growth model that combines vertical specialization and horizontal ecosystem development [13]. - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.5% from 2019 to 2024, increasing from 280 million CNY to 1.32 billion CNY [25][26]. - The mosquito repellent industry is experiencing expansion due to diversified consumer needs and increased outdoor activities, with the market expected to reach 10.17 billion CNY by 2027 [46][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Runben Co., Ltd. was established in 2006 and has successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2023. The company follows a "big brand, small category" strategy, focusing on integrated research, production, and sales [14]. - The company has three core business lines: mosquito repellent products, baby care products, and essential oils. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.32 billion CNY, with a net profit of 300 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.6% and 32.8%, respectively [14][25]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a net profit CAGR of 53.1% from 2019 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved from 54.1% in 2019 to 58.2% in 2024 [26][34]. - The revenue from baby care products has been a significant growth driver, with a year-on-year increase of 32.4% in 2024 [35]. Mosquito Repellent Industry - The mosquito repellent market is projected to grow significantly, driven by changing consumer preferences towards natural ingredients and increased outdoor activities. The market size is expected to reach 10.17 billion CNY by 2027, with a CAGR of 6.4% from 2022 to 2027 [46][52]. - Runben has successfully captured market share in the online channel, achieving a 19.9% market share in 2022 for mosquito repellent products [14]. Baby Care Industry - The baby care market is characterized by a broad customer base and continuous expansion, with a market share of 1.9% for Runben in 2022. The company is well-positioned to leverage its existing customer base from mosquito repellent products to enhance its baby care offerings [19][46]. - The industry is highly fragmented, providing opportunities for new domestic brands like Runben to emerge and capture market share [19]. Essential Oil Industry - The essential oil market is transitioning from a niche segment to a mainstream necessity, with a global market size expected to reach 27.82 billion USD by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 10.7% [6]. - Runben is expanding its essential oil product line, which currently includes products aimed at children, and is exploring further opportunities in this segment [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 69 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 44 times for 2025 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.432 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 203 million CNY, up 42.56% year-on-year [2]. - The overseas business achieved a revenue of 1.575 billion CNY, growing 17.61% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 4.04 percentage points to 27.95% [3]. - Domestic revenue reached 857 million CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 38.89% year-on-year, driven by the growth of the "Wanpi" brand [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 4.465 billion CNY in 2024, 5.746 billion CNY in 2025, 7.235 billion CNY in 2026, and 9.144 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of 19.1%, 28.7%, 25.9%, and 26.4% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 394 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 878 million CNY by 2027, with growth rates of 68.9%, 21.8%, 36.2%, and 34.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 1.29 CNY in 2024 to 2.89 CNY in 2027 [4]. Business Growth and Strategy - The company's main grain business saw a remarkable revenue increase of 85.79% in the first half of 2025, significantly contributing to overall revenue growth [8]. - The domestic brand revenue growth target for the second half of 2025 has been raised to no less than 35%, with the "Xiaojindun" series emerging as a key product [8]. - The company plans to leverage its overseas factories in Canada and Mexico to sustain growth, with new product launches and collaborations expected to enhance brand visibility [8].

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【专题报告】 形态因子研究初探：基于离散形态信号构建 的形态合成因子 ❖ K 线形态与形态信号 K 线的本质内涵是多空双方资金在争夺主导权而留下来的轨迹，K 线形态学研 究的是股票价格在下跌、盘整、上升过程中的价格轨迹的图形、形态及特征， 不同 K 线组合可以表现出多重市场形态。 在之前的报告中，我们根据 1-5 日 K 线总结出了 61 种常见形态，包括正面形 态，负面形态和反转形态，对应着不同的看涨或看跌信号。这些形态信号具有 以下特点：离散化、低覆盖、多样化（同一日不同形态的信号值有重叠或相反 情况），难以因子化。针对这些特点，本报告提出一种基于离散形态信号构建 形态合成因子的方法，希望通过多种"个性"形态的综合效应，挖掘形态背后 的因子"共性"。 ❖ 形态合成因子构建 综合不同形态和不同交易日情况，考虑形态之间的相互影响，基于离散形态信 号构建形态合成因子。首先采用离散信号回归加权法，将每一期各形态的离散 信号作为哑变量，与下一期收益率进行线性回归，并基于历史一段时间的回归 系数对信号值进行加权，得到形态因子。然后将当期形态因子和滞后 d 期形态 因子等权合成，构建形 ...

债券研究 债券深度报告 2025 年 08 月 07 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：靳晓航 电话：010-66500819 邮箱：jinxiaohang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080003 ——日历看债系列之二 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 基本面的季节性及时点观察 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❖ 2024 年以来，债券市场进入低利率区间，交易盘把握收益率运行规律愈渐重 要，本篇重点探讨基本面的季节性规律。 ❖ 一、基本面的日历效应 ❖ 一季度：聚焦经济数据"开门红"与两会定调。（1）1-2 月经济数据近年来表 现均较强势，"开门红"验证概率较高，数据空窗期需要重点关注反映春节消 费、开复工情况的高频指标。年初银行信贷投放"开门红"成色也是市场博弈 的方向，主要通过票据利率观察。（2）3 月两会确定全年经济工作任务，关注 重点包括：GDP 目标、货币政策定调、财政赤字、消费、房地产、通 ...

Group 1 - The overall recovery of existing actively managed public funds has reached 95% since the peak of the last bull market. A 5% increase in the equity fund index could correspond to a 5% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index to around 3800 points [3][17][26] - New funds have surpassed their initial average net value as of July 24, with an overall net return average of 2%. Old funds have recovered to 88% of the previous bull market peak [3][27][28] - The scale of thematic funds among the 3 trillion new funds is 500 billion, with sector allocations of 40% in consumer, 31% in manufacturing, and 19% in pharmaceuticals. New thematic funds are under greater pressure, having recovered to 94% of their initial net value average [3][30][31] Group 2 - The stability of the stock and real estate markets is crucial for improving residents' income. The bull market has facilitated the transfer of excess savings into the stock market, creating a positive feedback loop [4][12][13] - Compared to real estate, the stock market is a key foundation for the future recovery of residents' balance sheets and enhancement of property income. The current structure of second-hand housing transactions limits the consumption of residents' savings [12][13][36] - The adjustment in the stock and real estate markets over the past three years has been the main reason for the shrinkage of residents' balance sheets. Stabilizing these markets can effectively restore residents' confidence and income [12][13][36]