Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][21]. Core Insights - The company achieved profitability in Q2 2025, driven by high-margin products and a broadening product portfolio, which opens up growth opportunities [1][6]. - The demand for AI terminals and the acceleration of domestic substitution are expected to benefit the company, as it continues to expand its product offerings [6][7]. - The company reported a revenue of 283 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%, but with a gross margin improvement to 29.58% [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected total revenue for 2024A is 688 million yuan, increasing to 839 million yuan in 2025E, with a CAGR of 21.8% through 2027E [2][7]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The company is expected to turn a profit with a net income of 9 million yuan in 2025E, growing to 75 million yuan by 2027E, reflecting a significant growth rate of 362.6% in 2026E [2][7]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to improve from -0.25 yuan in 2024A to 1.08 yuan in 2027E [2][7]. Product and Market Development - The company is actively expanding its product matrix, including high-power fast charging and power supply applications, and has successfully entered the supply chain for international brands [6][7]. - The introduction of new products, such as specialized driver chips for micro-stepping motors, has seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of over 245% in motor driver control chip products [6][7]. - The company maintains a high R&D investment strategy, with a research expense ratio of 25.42% in H1 2025, focusing on markets such as home appliances and industrial power [6][7].

Policy Updates - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy was implemented on August 12, with a subsidy rate of 1% for one year, covering loans for daily consumption under 50,000 yuan and major purchases like cars and education[3] - The subsidy for service industry loans also has a 1% rate for one year, with a maximum loan amount of 1 million yuan per entity and a maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan[11] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China emphasized the importance of preventing fund idling in its Q2 2025 monetary policy report, aiming for a balance between supporting the real economy and maintaining financial health[13] - The report highlighted the need for structural monetary policy tools to support consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade[13] Environmental Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission is advancing carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, establishing a dual control mechanism for energy consumption and carbon emissions, and focusing on managing high-energy-consuming projects[4][13] Trade Relations - Recent US-China trade talks showed progress, with a 90-day suspension of a 24% tariff on US imports while maintaining a 10% tariff[4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [6][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.04 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 350 million yuan, up 13.1% year-on-year [1]. - The global mobile and chemical distribution segments showed significant growth, with the global mobile business revenue increasing by 50.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company is actively expanding its global footprint and is poised for recovery as market conditions improve [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.04 billion yuan, with a net profit of 350 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.4% and 13.1% respectively [1]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 was 3.34 billion yuan, and for Q2 2025, it was 3.69 billion yuan, showing a growth of 15.4% and 19.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s global freight forwarding business generated 1.69 billion yuan in revenue, up 4.85% year-on-year, while the chemical distribution business saw a revenue increase of 27.1% to 3.38 billion yuan [1]. Business Segment Performance - The global mobile business reported a revenue of 700 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 50.9% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 88 million yuan [1]. - The chemical distribution segment achieved a gross profit of 270 million yuan, with a gross margin of 8%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The integrated warehousing and distribution business experienced a slight decline in revenue, down 1.9% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 18.67% [1]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 661 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 17% [2]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 13.7 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2024 to 2027 [2]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 71.1 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of 58.93 yuan [2].

Investment Strategy - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index is at 71.97, down 1.21% week-on-week and down 23.14% year-on-year, indicating a challenging market environment [11] - The industry price percentile is at 17.96% over the past 10 years, down 0.43%, while the industry spread percentile is at 0.00%, down 1.14% [11] - The industry inventory percentile is at 81.38% over the past 5 years, down 1.09%, and the industry operating rate is at 66.57%, up 0.40% [11] - Notable price increases this week include: polyester POY cash flow (+98.0%), polyester FDY cash flow (+30.7%), and acrylic acid butyl ester spread (+26.3%) [11] - Significant price decreases include: maleic anhydride spread (-388.7%), acrylonitrile spread (-41.4%), and acrylic acid spread (-27.9%) [11] Chemical Industry Overview - The lithium carbonate market average price is 78,000 CNY/ton, up 9.6% week-on-week, driven by supply disruptions and strong demand [4] - The 3-cyanopyridine market average price is 32,000 CNY/ton, up 8.5% week-on-week, with tight supply and strong demand from downstream industries [4] - The acrylic short fiber market average price is 14,700 CNY/ton, up 7.7% week-on-week, with stable operating rates and demand primarily driven by long-term contracts [4] Market Trends - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to be a turning point for the chemical industry, with recent government meetings emphasizing this goal [12] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a high operating rate, with core products generally above 65%, indicating a healthier supply-demand balance compared to other sectors [12] - The fixed asset investment in the chemical industry turned negative in May 2025, suggesting a potential bottoming out of the market [12] Investment Recommendations - Focus on low-valuation chemical leaders such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, which are positioned for upward potential [13] - Consider companies benefiting from export quotas with expected Q3 performance improvements, such as Hubei Yihua and Xingfa Group [13] - Monitor industries experiencing price increases, such as organic silicon and glyphosate, with companies like Xingfa Group and Xin'an Chemical [13] - Pay attention to sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics, such as long filaments and spandex, with companies like Tongkun Co. and Huafeng Chemical [13] Phosphate Fertilizer Market - Phosphate fertilizer export prices have been rising due to strong overseas agricultural demand, with diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate FOB prices at 768.0 and 581.0 USD/ton, respectively [14] - The price increases represent year-to-date changes of +24.4% and +18.1%, with significant domestic and international price differentials indicating substantial export profits [14] - Companies such as Yuntianhua and Hubei Yihua are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][44]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights optimism in sectors such as gaming, intellectual property (IP), artificial intelligence (AI), and film, indicating a favorable market outlook [1][3]. - The media sector is currently experiencing a resurgence, with AI applications gaining traction and cultural confidence being bolstered through content output [3][6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the AI application industry, particularly in public cloud services and user engagement scenarios [3][6]. Market Performance Overview - The media sector index rose by 1.00% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.37%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 1.37% [7][10]. - The media sector's total market capitalization is approximately 178.65 billion yuan, with 140 listed companies [3]. Gaming Sector Insights - The gaming market shows positive trends, with high-frequency data indicating upward movement and favorable mid-year report expectations [3][15]. - Notable games such as "Peacekeeper Elite" and "Honor of Kings" continue to dominate the iOS sales rankings, reflecting strong daily active user (DAU) engagement [15][16]. Film Market Analysis - As of August 15, 2025, the film box office has reached 33.006 billion yuan, recovering approximately 85% of the pre-pandemic levels in terms of box office revenue [20][21]. - The average ticket price is reported at 32.6 yuan, with a total of 20.879 million viewers during the week of August 11-15, 2025 [21][26]. AI Sector Developments - The report notes the ongoing advancements in AI applications, with a focus on companies like Kuaishou and Youzan, which are expected to benefit from AI integration [3][29]. - The launch of new AI technologies and products by major companies like Huawei and Apple is anticipated to further drive growth in the sector [29][30][31]. Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Meitu, which are well-positioned to leverage the current market dynamics [3][6]. - Specific stocks like Giant Network, G-bits, and Perfect World are highlighted as potential investment opportunities within the gaming sector [3][6].

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Global oil and gas capital expenditure has declined significantly since the Paris Agreement in 2015, with a 122% reduction from 2014 highs to $351 billion in 2021, leading to cautious investment from major oil companies [8][30][31] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened concerns over global energy supply, with the EU aiming to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [9][31] - Current oil prices are under pressure, with Brent crude at $67.89 per barrel and WTI at $63.31 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 2.01% and 2.17% respectively [10][32][50] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has shown resilience, with the average market price at Qinhuangdao port reaching 692 yuan per ton, up 2.61% week-on-week, supported by increased demand from power plants [11][12] - The supply side is gradually improving as coal mines resume production, but demand remains strong due to high temperatures increasing electricity consumption [11][12] - The focus on domestic coal production and the impact of international energy dynamics, particularly from the EU's renewed coal demand, are expected to enhance the profitability of domestic coal companies [12] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal - The price of coke remains stable at 1280 yuan per ton, with downstream steel mills showing a need for replenishment despite high raw material costs [13][14] - Coking coal prices are also stable at 1610 yuan per ton, with market sentiment cautious as procurement slows down after previous stockpiling [13][14] - Steel production remains robust, with an average daily output of 240.73 million tons, indicating ongoing demand for coke [13] Group 4: Natural Gas Trends - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a slowdown in global natural gas demand growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025, with expectations of accelerated growth in 2026 [15][16] - Natural gas prices have decreased, with NYMEX natural gas averaging $2.86 per million British thermal units, down 5.6% week-on-week [15][16] - The EU's agreement on a natural gas price cap may exacerbate liquidity issues in the market, potentially leading to supply shortages [16][17] Group 5: Oilfield Services Sector - The oilfield services industry is experiencing a recovery in activity levels, supported by government policies aimed at increasing oil and gas production [18][19] - Global active rig counts have increased to 1621, with a slight rise in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating a positive trend in exploration and production activities [19] - The overall capital expenditure in the oil sector is expected to continue growing, driven by high oil prices and geopolitical factors [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - Continuous efforts to combat "involution" in the aviation industry are underway, with expectations for ticket prices to stabilize and improve [9] - The demand side remains resilient due to endogenous growth in domestic demand and ongoing recovery in international routes [9] - Supply constraints are expected to persist, and a decrease in oil prices will alleviate cost pressures [9] - Positive outlook on domestic regional market leader Huaxia Airlines and low-cost airline leader Spring Airlines, which leverage their core competitiveness to optimize "traffic-cost-price" dynamics [9] - Anticipation of elasticity release from major airlines represented by Air China, with a favorable recovery in international routes and efficient operation of wide-body aircraft expected to benefit Juneyao Airlines [9] Summary by Sections 1. Airline Data Analysis for July - In July, the overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines (10.4%), followed by Eastern Airlines (7.4%), Southern Airlines (6.7%), Air China (2.3%), and Juneyao Airlines (-3.0%) [2] - RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth rates for July were highest for Eastern Airlines (9.4%), followed by Spring Airlines (8.6%), Southern Airlines (7.3%), Air China (2.2%), and Juneyao Airlines (-3.2%) [2] - Cumulative ASK growth from January to July showed Spring Airlines (9.6%) leading, followed by Eastern Airlines (7.5%) and Southern Airlines (5.7%) [2] - Cumulative RPK growth for the same period was highest for Eastern Airlines (11.8%) [2] 2. Passenger Load Factor - In July, the passenger load factor was highest for Spring Airlines at 91.9%, followed by Juneyao Airlines and Eastern Airlines both at 84.8% [4] - Cumulative load factor from January to July showed Spring Airlines at 90.7%, with Southern Airlines at 85.3% [4] 3. Fleet Size - As of July 2025, the five listed airlines collectively added 7 aircraft, with a year-on-year fleet size increase of 3.5% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, specifically for new materials, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector outperformed the broader market and the basic chemical sector, with a weekly change of 5.69% for the new materials index compared to 1.09% for the basic chemical index [10]. - The report highlights significant growth in the Middle East smartphone market, with a 15% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q2 2025, reaching 13.2 million units, driven by consumer demand and economic momentum [13]. - The global robot market is projected to exceed $400 billion by 2029, with China expected to capture nearly half of this market share, indicating strong growth potential in robotics materials [14][15]. Industry Updates - The report notes that the new materials sector is characterized by high demand growth and strong technological barriers, with various subcategories including high-end engineering plastics and renewable energy materials [18]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is actively addressing low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to promote sustainable development and the exit of outdated production capacity [11]. - Recent policies from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration allow for tax deductions on hydrogen and methanol usage, which could stimulate growth in the hydrogen energy sector [15]. Trading Data - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stands at 71.97, reflecting a 1.21% decrease week-on-week and a 23.14% decrease year-on-year [19]. - The industry inventory percentile is at 81.38%, indicating a relatively high level of inventory compared to the past five years [19]. Price Movements - Notable price increases this week include 6F (+9.45%), lithium iron phosphate (+5.05%), and oxygen (+2.81%), while significant declines were observed in valine (-3.24%), threonine (-2.28%), and lysine (-1.93%) [10][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the automotive industry in the second half of the year, with a focus on electric vehicles outperforming traditional fuel vehicles [3]. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates policy changes for the next year, leading to an optimistic sales outlook for the second half of the year [3]. - Investment recommendations include continuing to focus on Jianghuai Automobile, SAIC Motor, and Great Wall Motors for complete vehicles, while suggesting a watch on Geely and Li Auto for potential opportunities [3]. - For auto parts, the report recommends selecting stocks based on low valuations and expected growth of over 15% next year, highlighting Xingyu Co., Aikedi, and others [3]. Data Tracking - In July, new energy vehicle deliveries showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 344,296 units (up 0.6% YoY, down 10.0% MoM), and Leap Motor increasing deliveries by 126.9% YoY [3][18]. - Traditional automakers also saw growth, with Geely's sales up 57.6% YoY, and SAIC Motor leading with 338,000 units sold [20]. - The average discount rate in early August was 10.1%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 3.21%, ranking 8th out of 29 sectors [6]. - The overall market indices also showed positive growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.70% and the ChiNext Index up 8.58% [6]. Industry News - In July, the automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively [28]. - New energy vehicles accounted for 48.7% of total new car sales in July, with production and sales of 1.243 million units [28]. - The report highlights the launch of new models, including the Great Wall Tank 500 and the 2026 Deep Blue L07, indicating ongoing innovation in the sector [28][29].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 50 期） 发改委低空司举办专题培训，我们建议关注 推荐（维持） 低空产业或将从顶层设计到加速落地 交通运输 2025 年 08 月 17 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 ❑ 国家发改委低空司举办推进低空经济高质量发展专题培训。自 5 月 20 号以 来，发改委频频发声提及低空经济，我们在 7 月发布的低空 60 系列第 21 篇报 告 ...