大势研判：从布局黄金坑到震荡判断，当下重结构、轻方向。行至当下，我们 依然认为指数层面短期或维持区间震荡的格局，上下空间有限：1）向下看国 家队资金托底，无论是去年 924 市场底部、抑或是今年 4 月关税冲击市场回 调，国家队资金均通过大力增持 ETF 稳定股市；2）向上看基本面和政策都仍 需等待，一方面是外部关税事件对于出口和外需影响的不确定性仍在，另一方 面国内在价格低位运行的基础上，4 月经济数据显示基本面修复持续性和力度 仍需观测；政策来看，货币方面降准降息落地、财政方面地方新增专项债发行 进度达 34%已高于去年 5 月末 30%，但如此前 5/9《走出黄金坑——策略周聚 焦》所述，当下政策更多是既有工具的加速使用，更大力度的刺激及创新型工 具的推出可能要等待 7 月政治局会议。综上所述，后续市场表现更应注重结构 配置、轻方向。 策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 杠铃依旧：旧红利与新成长 ——策略周聚焦 ❖ 从布局黄金坑到震荡判断，当下重结构、轻方向 ❖ 旧红利与新故事 25 年至今行情：杠铃领涨的背后，大盘成长弹性有限。从今年以来单风格指 数表现来看，明显表现为小市值、低估值占优； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment sentiment for the automotive sector, with an optimistic outlook for annual sales growth, projecting a retail growth rate of 5.2% and a wholesale growth rate of 8.4% for the year [2][3]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a recovery in sales, particularly in April, with a year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of 11.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.0%. The report anticipates that sales levels will remain strong, especially for high-end brands priced above 200,000 yuan, with a forecasted wholesale growth rate of 31% for new energy passenger vehicles [2][4]. - The report highlights the strong performance of new energy vehicle manufacturers, with BYD delivering 380,089 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 21%, and other new players like Leap Motor and Xpeng showing significant growth [4][20]. - Traditional automakers like Geely and SAIC also showed notable sales increases, with Geely's sales up by 53% year-on-year in April [4][24]. Data Tracking - In April, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.22 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0% and a month-on-month decline of 10.0%. The export sales for the same month were 430,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4% and a month-on-month increase of 5.0% [4][24]. - The average discount rate in early May was 7.2%, slightly down from the previous month, with an average discount amount of 10,613 yuan [4][25]. - The report recommends key companies in the automotive sector, including JAC Motors, Li Auto, Geely, and BYD, highlighting their competitive advantages and potential for upward price elasticity [5][6]. Industry News - The report notes that as of late April, the national inventory of passenger vehicles reached 3.5 million units, indicating a slight increase in inventory pressure compared to previous years [31]. - Recent collaborations, such as the strategic partnership between Dongfeng Motor Group and Huawei, aim to enhance smart vehicle technologies and digital transformation within the automotive sector [31][32]. - The report also mentions the overall market performance, with the automotive sector index rising by 1.80% in the latest week, ranking third among 29 sectors [8][33].

证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20250519-20250525） 商业银行一季度经营仍有承压，息差降幅同 推荐（维持） 比收窄 分银行类型来看，商业银行内部表现分化，国有行表现较好，城商行有所改善， 股份行和农商行则经营继续承压。1）国有行主要靠量增维持净利润正增长。 1Q25国有行净利润同比+0.09%。我们推算1Q25国有行贷款同比增速环比+3bp 至 9.29%，贷款增量占比同比+4pct 至 61%。1Q25 净息差环比下降 11bp（1Q24 为-15bp)；2）股份行规模增速放缓，利润增速转负：1Q25 股份行净利润同比 -4.5%，主要是贷款增速放缓（1Q25 贷款同比增速环比-0.28pct 至 4.06%）， 息差同比降幅收窄；3）城商行量价均有改善，利润增速降幅较 24 年收窄： 1Q25 城商行净利润同比-6.68%，增速较 24 年末+6.45pct。一方面是规模加快 扩张，1Q25 贷款增速环比+0.29pct 至 7.98%；另一方面是息差表现较优，1Q25 环比仅下降 1bp 至 1.37%（1Q24 息差降幅为 12bp）；4）农商行息差同比降幅 有所收窄，净利润降幅也 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 钢铁行业周报（20250519-20250523） 推荐（维持） 原料价格回落，钢厂盈利率持续修复 ❑ 行业观点：需求显现淡季特征，钢材价格走弱 事件一：截至 5 月 23 日，五大品种螺纹钢、线材、热轧、冷轧、中板价格分 别报收 3280 元/吨、3617 元/吨、3295 元/吨、3731 元/吨、3521 元/吨，周环比 分别变化-1.50%、-1.09%、-0.75%、-0.97%、-0.52%。本周五大品种产量 872.44 万吨，周环比上升 4.09 万吨。247 家钢铁企业日均铁水 243.6 万吨，周环比下 降 1.17 万吨，高炉产能利用率 91.32%，周环比下降 0.44 个百分点，高炉开工 率 83.69%，周环比下降 0.46 个百分点。短流程企业，电炉产能利用率 59.5%， 周环比上升 2.93 个百分点，电炉开工率 77.18%，周环比上升 1.98 个百分点。 库存方面，本周钢材总库存 1398.54 万吨，周环比下降 32.12 万吨。其中社会 库存环比下降 33.11 万吨至 960.56 万吨；钢厂库存环比增加 0.99 万吨至 437.98 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [10][20]. Core Insights - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue but significantly improved its AI capabilities. In Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.53%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 30 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 390.89%. For 2024, total revenue was 6.203 billion yuan, down 4.93%, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 116.19% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company reported a total revenue of 6.240 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 4.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 251 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 116.2% [5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.27 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 54, 38, and 28 [5][10]. - **Target Price**: The target price is set at 16.2 yuan, compared to the current price of 13.88 yuan [6]. Business Development Summary - **Digital Cost Business**: In 2024, revenue from this segment was 4.986 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.55%. The business is evolving from single-tool applications to comprehensive cost management solutions, increasing coverage from 53.78% to 79.25% [10]. - **Digital Construction Business**: This segment generated 787 million yuan in revenue for 2024, down 8.71%. The company made advancements in smart construction technologies [10]. - **Digital Design Business**: Revenue increased by 3.28% to 90 million yuan in 2024, with a growing number of application projects [10]. AI and International Expansion - The company has enhanced its AI capabilities, launching new AI-driven products and platforms. In 2024, overseas revenue reached 203 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.07% [10]. Employee Incentives - A new stock option incentive plan was introduced, covering 485 employees with a target net profit of 563 million yuan for 2025, aiming for a 30% growth in 2026 [10]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.443 billion yuan, 6.710 billion yuan, and 6.980 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 448 million yuan, 646 million yuan, and 871 million yuan [10].

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20250519-20250523） 几内亚撤销矿权被列为战略储备区，支撑矿 推荐（维持） 石价格上行 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 1、行业观点：几内亚将撤销矿权列为战略储备区，支撑铝土矿价格 事件：几内亚时间 5 月 20 日晚，在几内亚国家电视台上宣读的命令中，过渡 当局决定将几个采矿权归类为战略储备区，包括特许权、工业和半工业开采许 可证，以及铝土矿、铁、金、钻石和石墨的勘探许可证。根据几内亚政府发言 人表示，失去许可证的企业(若有意愿)未来在矿业特许权投放市场时仍可参与 竞标，但需满足相关条件。 观点：我们认为战略储备区内矿石短期复产较难，考虑涉及在产矿山约影响年 化产量接近 4000 万吨，停产后或造成 2025 年几内亚地区铝土矿到中国的增 量从停产前的 3600 万吨下降为 1300 万吨左右，国内铝土矿年化供需处于平 衡点附近。根据 ALD 数据，本周主流成交价格上涨至 74-75 美元/干吨，考虑 几内亚发运到中国需要 1-2 月时间，当前暂未影响到实际的矿石供应，但考虑 到几内亚地区雨季即将来临，停产企业为几内亚主要的现货商之一，未来几个 月矿石现货市场 ...

推荐（维持） 高阶智驾渗透率持续提升，商业化进程提速 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 05 月 25 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 政策计算机行业周报（20250519-20250523） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周志浩 邮箱：zhouzhihao1@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 336 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 41,548.90 | 4.19 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 35,628.74 | 4.53 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -1.7% | -2.5% | 30.2% | | 相对表现 | -4.2% | -3.0% | 23.6% | -16% 11% 39% 66% 24/05 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/03 25/05 2024-05-24~2025-05-23 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250519-20250523） 金融工程 本周指数普遍下跌 ❖ 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍下跌，其中沪深 300 下跌 0.18%，中证 500 下跌 1.1%，中证 1000 下跌 1.29%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 13.48%，相对于上周上涨了 1.11%。上证 500 的隐含波动率为 16.97%，相对于上周上涨了 0.72%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率 为 21.37%，相对于上周上涨了 1.76%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 13.25%，相 对于上周下跌了-0.12%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 5 月 12 日到 2025 年 5 月 16 日正 面信号共出现了 2784 次，未来高点平均胜率为 52.18%，负面信号出现 3857 次，未来低点平均胜率为 47.78%。 从宽基择时策略来看，上证 50、恒生可持续发展企业指数出现看多信号，其 余宽基信号为中性。 从行业形态择时策略来看，商贸零售、家电、综合、纺织服装、电力及公用事 业、消费者服务、交通运输出现看多信号，其余行业信号为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [33]. Core Insights - The report highlights an upward trend in computing power leasing and an increase in military information technology exports, driven by rising demand for AI and advanced computing capabilities [5][21]. - The domestic AI investment outlook remains robust despite short-term capital expenditure pressures, with major companies expected to focus on AI as a core investment area [16][17]. - The "Jiutian" drone, a domestically developed heavy unmanned platform, is set to make its maiden flight by the end of June 2025, showcasing significant technological advancements and enhancing China's competitive edge in the military technology sector [21][22][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry saw a decline of 2.31% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [8][9]. - Year-to-date, the communication industry has decreased by 5.56%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.22 percentage points [8][9]. Market Performance - The report notes that the communication sector's valuation (PE-TTM) stands at 28.70, compared to 12.55 for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and 30.68 for the ChiNext index [5]. - The top-performing stocks in the communication sector this week included Fenghuo Electronics (+22.54%) and Dongtu Technology (+14.45%) [12][14]. Computing Power Services - The demand for computing power services is rapidly increasing, with significant growth in leasing and related services due to ongoing chip restrictions [15][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring financing channels, order contracts, technological barriers, and service implementation timelines for companies in this sector [17]. Military Technology - The "Jiutian" drone is expected to redefine the operational boundaries of unmanned aerial vehicles, with capabilities that surpass those of existing military drones [21][22]. - The drone's advanced features and performance metrics position it as a competitive player in the international military technology market, enhancing China's export potential [23]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include major telecommunications operators such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as companies in the military and satellite communication sectors like Haige Communication and Shanghai Hanyun [26].

证 券 研 究 报 告 政策计算机行业周报（20250519-20250523） 推荐（维持） 高阶智驾渗透率持续提升，商业化进程提速 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 05 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周志浩 邮箱：zhouzhihao1@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 2025-05-18 《计算机行业周报（20250506-20250509）：鸿蒙 PC 一小步，国产系统一大步》 2025-05-11 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 ❑ 本周板块走势回顾。本周（5 月 19 日-5 月 23 日）计算机（中信）指数下降 3.00%，创业板指数下降 0.88%，上证指数下降 0.57%。板块周涨幅前三为慧 博云通（69.00%）、*ST 迪威（16.89%）、盛视科技（16.42%），板块周跌幅前 三为汉鑫科技（-12.15%）、宏景科技（-10.68%)、科蓝软件（-10.28%）。 ❑ 高阶智驾渗透率有望加速，助力车厂提升竞争力。2024-2 ...