Group 1: Report Core View - As of April 18, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.95 years and 2.15 years respectively, both at relatively high levels since March 2021 [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index slightly declined, currently at the 45.7% level since March 2024 [12]. Group 2: All - Variety Term Overview - Urban investment bonds and industrial bonds' trading terms decreased slightly from the previous period but remained at high levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.69 years, 2.97 years, and 1.93 years respectively. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.26 years, 1.79 years, 3.72 years, and 1.36 years respectively [2][10]. Group 3: Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The average duration of urban investment bonds continued to decline slightly, with the weighted trading term around 1.95 years. Sichuan provincial and Beijing district - county - level urban investment bonds had a trading duration close to 4 years, while the durations of Guangdong prefecture - level and Shandong provincial urban investment bonds shortened significantly. The duration historical quantiles of Zhejiang district - county - level, Beijing district - county - level, Shandong prefecture - level, Henan prefecture - level, and Jiangxi prefecture - level urban investment bonds exceeded 90%, with Beijing district - county - level and Shandong prefecture - level approaching the highest since 2021 [3][17]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading term of industrial bonds shortened from the previous period, generally around 2.15 years. The marginal trading term of the commercial retail industry shortened significantly to 1.39 years. Industries such as transportation and commercial retail were at relatively low historical quantiles, while industries like public utilities, food and beverage, building materials, and pharmaceutical biology were above the 90% historical quantile [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of bank perpetual bonds slightly shortened to 2.97 years, at the 36.30% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds significantly shortened to 3.69 years, at the 67.4% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.93 years, at the 33.9% historical quantile, lower than the same period last year [3][24]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 88.2%, 18.8%, 3.3%, and 84.9% historical quantiles respectively. The duration of leasing company bonds slightly increased from last week [4][27].

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/04/14-2025/04/18）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数下跌 0.73%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 27；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.59%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 1.10%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 7；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 4.13%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 燃机国产化加速推进，应流股份燃机叶片订单高增。燃气轮机是关系国家安全和国民经济增长的重大动力装 备，国产化的重要程度高。叶片是燃机的核心零部件，价值量占比 35%左右，技术壁垒较高，也是燃机国产化 率提升的主要突破点。近年来，随着国家政策的不断支持，我国叶片制造技术不断提升。截至 2024 年末，国内 叶片龙头应流股份的燃机叶片已经覆盖 E、F、G/H 等级多款型号燃气轮机，随着技术提升叠加行业需求上行， 公司 2024 年燃机领域订单同比+103%。近日，应流股份子公司应流航源承担的某型重型燃气轮机透平第二级动 叶铸件在霍山通过首 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 681 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.51%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.65 billion RMB, down 48.64% year-on-year [2] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 182.24 billion RMB, an increase of 24.34% quarter-on-quarter and 7.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7.81 billion RMB, marking a turnaround from losses and a year-on-year increase of 1835% [2] - The increase in sales volume and prices in the rare earth business significantly improved the company's profitability [3] - The company continues to maintain high R&D investment while reducing period expenses [3] - The product structure is continuously optimized, with a 9.65% year-on-year increase in steel sales and a record production of over 1.5 million tons of rare earth steel [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue of 681 billion RMB for 2024, down 3.51% from the previous year, and a net profit of 2.65 billion RMB, down 48.64% year-on-year [2][10] - Q4 2024 revenue was 182.24 billion RMB, up 24.34% quarter-on-quarter and 7.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7.81 billion RMB, indicating a significant recovery [2] Business Performance - The rare earth business saw both volume and price increases, with sales volume for key products rising significantly in Q4 2024 [3] - The company’s gross profit and gross margin improved, with gross profit increasing by 58.04% quarter-on-quarter [3] Strategic Outlook - The outlook for rare earth prices is positive due to export controls and reduced overseas supply, which may enhance the company's strategic value [4] - The steel business is expected to benefit from reduced production and a weakening iron ore market [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 617 billion RMB, 635 billion RMB, and 646 billion RMB, with net profits expected to rise to 22 billion RMB, 36 billion RMB, and 45 billion RMB respectively [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, emphasizing its role in boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the market [1][12]. Core Insights - The real estate market is transitioning back to its residential function, with significant declines in new home sales and construction activities projected for 2022-2024 [1][12]. - The implementation of new policies on May 17, 2024, aims to support the real estate market, including adjustments to loan rates and down payment requirements [1][12]. - Infrastructure projects are also highlighted as key drivers of domestic demand, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Guangxi, with significant investments underway [2][13]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative remains a focal point for international expansion, with ongoing collaborations between China and Vietnam to enhance infrastructure connectivity [2][13]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report discusses the importance of real estate in stimulating domestic demand, noting a shift towards residential needs and a significant drop in key market indicators [1][12]. - It highlights the recent government meetings aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and the potential impact of new policies on housing loans [1][12]. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices have shown a year-on-year increase, with the national average price at 395 RMB/t, while glass prices have also seen slight increases [3][14]. - The report notes a stable demand for aluminum and steel, with expectations for continued high supply levels [3][14]. National Subsidy Tracking - Various regions have successfully implemented consumer subsidies, such as Shanghai's 1.8 billion RMB for home appliance upgrades, significantly boosting sales [4][15]. - The report suggests focusing on companies related to subsidized products in the construction materials sector [4][15]. Important Developments - The report mentions the strengthening of the strategic partnership between China and Vietnam, along with significant stock purchases by major shareholders in various companies [5][16]. - It emphasizes the government's commitment to stabilizing the stock market and supporting the real estate sector [5][16]. Market Performance (April 14-18) - The construction materials index experienced a slight decline, with specific segments like refractory materials and pipes performing better than others [17]. Construction Material Price Changes - Cement prices have slightly decreased in certain regions, while glass prices have shown minor increases, indicating a mixed market response [29][39]. - The report provides detailed statistics on the pricing trends and inventory levels for various construction materials [29][39].

本周观点 投资建议 建议关注国内生成式大模型龙头科大讯飞；AI 硬件有望成为应用落地的新载体，建议关注萤石网络、虹软科技 等；AI 相关功能打磨能够带动 C 端应用月活量、付费率提升，建议关注金山办公、万兴科技等。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧的风险；技术研发进度不及预期的风险；特定行业下游资本开支周期性波动的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 4 月 17 日，火山引擎发布豆包 1.5·深度思考模型，包含两个版本：Doubao-1.5-thinking-pro 和具备多模态能力 的视觉版 Doubao-1.5-thinking-pro-vision，采用 MoE 架构，总参数量为 200B，激活参数为 20B，在数学推理、 编程竞赛、科学推理等专业领域任务以及创意写作等通用任务中均表现突出。4 月 16 日，可灵 AI 发布了两款基 础模型的升级版本，可灵 2.0 视频生成模型和可图 2.0 图像生成模型。该模型在语义理解、动态画面处理和多风 格适配方面进行了优化。视频模型支持复杂时序描述和镜头运动控制，图像模型提升了细节还原能力并扩展了风 格选项。4 月 15 日，中国证监局官网显示，北京智谱华章科技股份有限 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by AI development, including servers, IDC, switches, switch chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling, as well as overseas markets for servers, switches, and optical modules [4]. Core Insights - China Unicom's Q1 2025 financial report shows growth driven by cloud and IDC data center businesses, with cloud revenue at 19.72 billion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, and IDC revenue at 7.22 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1]. - Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 super node cluster, featuring 384 Ascend chips, is expected to accelerate domestic AI chip replacement and boost demand for optical modules [1]. - The demand for inference computing continues to grow as tech companies accelerate their investments in multimodal interaction and AI agents, exemplified by Tencent's AI assistant "Yuanbao" and OpenAI's new models [1][7]. - The three major telecom operators are steadily advancing cloud computing and computing power services, driving rapid growth in AI computing demand [3]. Summary by Sections Subsector Insights - **Servers**: 2025 is projected to be a year of significant growth in inference demand, with a shift from centralized cloud services to mass terminals requiring cost-effective dedicated chips. Domestic ASIC chip manufacturers like ZTE and Unisoc are expected to benefit [2][6]. - **Optical Modules**: The CloudMatrix system's architecture will significantly increase the demand for optical modules, with major domestic suppliers like LightSpeed Technology and Shijia Photonics poised for growth [2][10]. - **IDC**: The three major operators are increasing investments in computing power, with companies like DataPort and Runjian benefiting from the growing demand for data centers [3][13]. Key Data Updates - The telecom sector's main business revenue reached 295 billion yuan in the first two months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [17]. - The number of fixed broadband access users reached 675 million, with gigabit users accounting for 31.7% [18]. - The mobile internet traffic reached 55.39 billion GB, up 13.6% year-on-year [21]. Market Trends - The report indicates a steady upward trend in the telecom sector, with operators, optical modules, and servers showing robust growth [14][17]. - The IDC index has seen a decline of 2.17% this week, reflecting market fluctuations [13]. Company News - OpenAI has launched the GPT-4.1 series models, enhancing performance and cost efficiency, which is expected to drive demand for AI computing power [55]. - Major cloud providers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for AI and cloud services, indicating strong future demand for computing infrastructure [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative model companies such as iFlytek, and AI hardware companies like Yingshi Network and Hongsoft Technology, as well as software companies like Kingsoft Office and Wanjing Technology for potential investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The AI industry is expected to continue thriving due to ongoing iterations of AI models and applications from major internet companies in China. The report highlights the advantages of large internet firms leveraging foundational models and computing power to achieve scalable monetization through MaaS integration into existing applications or cloud platforms [12][14]. - The report indicates that the impact of Trump's tariff policy on computer companies' fundamentals is minimal, with domestic demand expected to benefit from potential growth policies. The overall performance of the computer sector is anticipated to remain stable despite external market pressures [12][14]. - The report identifies high-growth sectors for 2025, including the AI industry chain, intelligent driving, and the Huawei supply chain, while also noting sectors with stable growth such as data elements and industrial software [12][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The report discusses the release of advanced AI models by companies like Huoshan Engine and Keling AI, showcasing significant improvements in capabilities such as semantic understanding and dynamic image processing. The ongoing development in AI applications is expected to enhance user engagement and monetization [12][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of collaboration between AI vendors and industry-specific enterprises to deepen the integration of AI solutions into various sectors, including healthcare and finance [12][14]. Market Review - From April 14 to April 18, 2025, the computer industry index (Shenwan) fell by 0.84%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.43 percentage points, indicating a challenging market environment for the sector during this period [17]. Key Events Outlook - Upcoming conferences related to drones, machine learning, and robotics are highlighted as opportunities for investment in related industry chains [27].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in the express delivery sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding due to its valuation, operational resilience, and shareholder returns [3]. Core Insights - The express delivery business volume increased by 20.3% year-on-year in March, while the single ticket revenue decreased by 8.2%. The total revenue for the express business is projected to reach 124.6 billion yuan by March 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [3]. - The logistics sector is under pressure with domestic shipping prices for liquid chemicals down by 11.2% year-on-year. The report recommends Hai Chen Co. for its focus on smart logistics and strategic partnerships [4]. - The aviation sector benefits from low international oil prices, which could enhance airline profits. The report recommends investing in the airline sector, particularly China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [5]. - The shipping sector shows mixed signals, with the BDTI index increasing by 2.6% week-on-week, while the CCFI index for export container shipping remains under pressure [6]. Summary by Sections Transportation Sector Overview - The transportation index rose by 0.2% from April 12 to April 19, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 0.6% [2][13]. Express Delivery - In March, the express delivery business volume reached approximately 38.13 billion pieces, with a week-on-week increase of 10.8% and a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. The average single ticket revenue was 7.48 yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year [3]. Logistics - The China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) is at 4032 points, down 14.3% year-on-year. The report highlights the revenue growth of Milkrun and Hai Chen Co. for 2024, with Milkrun's revenue expected to rise by 24.3% [4]. Aviation - The average daily flight volume in China increased by 3.11% year-on-year, with international flights showing a significant growth of 23.9%. The Brent crude oil price is currently at $67.96 per barrel, down 24.51% year-on-year [5]. Shipping - The CCFI index for export container shipping is at 1110.94 points, down 6.4% year-on-year, while the SCFI index is at 1370.58 points, down 22.5% year-on-year. The BDTI index for oil transportation is at 1152 points, up 1.6% year-on-year [6][38]. Road and Rail - National railway passenger volume in March was 337 million, up 4.9% year-on-year, while road freight volume increased by 5.7% year-on-year [84][87].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by AI development, including servers, IDC, switches, switch chips, optical modules, and liquid cooling, as well as overseas markets for servers, switches, and optical modules [4] Core Insights - China Unicom's Q1 2025 financial report shows growth driven by cloud and IDC services, with cloud revenue at 19.72 billion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year, and IDC revenue at 7.22 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1] - Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 super node cluster, built on 384 Ascend chips, is expected to boost demand for optical modules, benefiting domestic suppliers [1] - The demand for inference computing continues to grow, driven by advancements in AI applications and multi-modal interactions [1][7] - Major tech companies are increasing investments in AI infrastructure, with Microsoft planning to invest approximately 80 billion USD in data centers for AI model training in FY2025 [7] Summary by Sections Communication Sector - The communication industry in China saw a 0.9% growth in Q1 2025, with operators focusing on cloud and computing services to drive AI demand [1][3] - The three major operators achieved a total telecom revenue of 295 billion yuan in the first two months of 2025, reflecting a 0.9% year-on-year increase [17] Server Sector - The server index increased by 1.28% this week, with a projected significant rise in inference demand in 2025 as AI applications expand from centralized cloud services to mass terminals [6] - Domestic ASIC chip manufacturers and server OEMs like ZTE and Unisplendour are expected to benefit from the restructuring of the chip market due to tariff policies [6] Optical Module Sector - The optical module index decreased by 0.26% this week, with a notable decline of 11.26% for the month [10] - The CloudMatrix 384 system's architecture is expected to significantly increase the demand for optical modules, with 6,912 400G LPO modules utilized [10] IDC Sector - The IDC index decreased by 2.17% this week, with a 12.16% decline for the month [13] - Data centers are expected to benefit from the large-scale construction of computing infrastructure in 2025, with companies like Data Port and Runjian actively participating in operator collaborations [3][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 681 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.51%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.65 billion RMB, down 48.64% year-on-year [2] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 182.24 billion RMB, an increase of 24.34% quarter-on-quarter and 7.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7.81 billion RMB, marking a turnaround from losses and a year-on-year increase of 1835% [2] - The rare earth business has seen both volume and price increases, significantly improving the company's profitability [3] - The company has optimized its product structure, with a 9.65% year-on-year increase in steel sales and a record production of over 1.5 million tons of rare earth steel [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was 70.57 billion RMB, with a projected decline to 68.09 billion RMB in 2024, followed by further declines in 2025 [10] - The net profit for 2023 was 515 million RMB, expected to drop to 265 million RMB in 2024, but forecasted to rebound to 2.24 billion RMB in 2025 [10] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.006 RMB in 2024 to 0.10 RMB by 2027 [10] Business Segments - The rare earth segment has benefited from rising prices and improved demand due to export controls and reduced overseas supply [4] - The steel business is expected to benefit from reduced production and a downturn in iron ore prices, leading to a potential reduction in losses [4] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 61.68 billion RMB, 63.52 billion RMB, and 64.57 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to rise significantly in the following years [5] - The company is positioned to benefit from its strong rare earth resource base and strategic partnerships, which may enhance both performance and valuation in the future [4]