证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W18-19） [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工定期报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W18-19)：证监会印发 《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》 [Table_ReportDate] ...

Market Outlook - The initial bull market's consolidation period is likely to extend due to the complexity of U.S. tariffs, shifting the short-term outlook from optimistic to high-level fluctuations[2] - The current market fluctuation is seen as an extension of the volatility since October 8, 2024, with potential for a policy and capital-driven breakthrough later this year[2] - The tariff impact from April has disrupted the profit expectations for A-shares, necessitating time for digestion, which may limit future upward movements[2] Economic Analysis - The economic conditions during the consolidation phase may be weaker than the lowest points of previous bear markets, but the market is unlikely to revert to a bear state[3] - Historical precedents indicate that prolonged consolidation periods can occur due to new economic pressures, similar to the 2013 liquidity crisis and the early 2020 pandemic[3] - The likelihood of a one-year consolidation period has increased, with a return to a bull market rhythm expected later this year[3] Scenario Projections - **Pessimistic Scenario (Low Probability)**: A sudden, larger shock than the April tariff impact could lead the market back to the lows seen in April[3] - **Neutral Scenario (High Probability)**: Gradual economic impacts from tariffs will lead to 1-2 quarters of narrow fluctuations before a return to a bull market driven by policy and capital inflows[3] - **Optimistic Scenario (Low Probability)**: Successful U.S.-China negotiations leading to significant tariff reductions could prevent further market downturns[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include unexpected downturns in the real estate market, significant volatility in U.S. equities, and the potential failure of historical patterns to hold[3]

AI 扩散规则或被取消，产业链相关公司有望修复 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 杨宇轩 电子行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525010001 邮箱：yangyuxuan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] AI 扩散规则或被取消，产业链相关公司有望 修复 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates a shift from optimism to high-level fluctuations due to the complexity of U.S. tariffs, suggesting that the current market fluctuation is an extension of the volatility observed since October 8, 2024, with a potential breakthrough later this year driven by policy and capital [2][9]. - The report suggests that the initial phase of the bull market typically experiences a rapid rise followed by a period of consolidation lasting six months to a year, but the recent tariff shocks have introduced more disturbances, making a six-month optimistic scenario less likely and increasing the probability of a one-year fluctuation [3][10]. - It is noted that during the fluctuation period, the economy may be weaker than at the lowest point of the bear market, but the market is unlikely to revert to a bear market, as the extended fluctuation is primarily due to high uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, which has led to pessimistic profit expectations [3][17]. Group 2 - The report outlines three potential scenarios for the upcoming quarter: a pessimistic scenario where a larger unexpected shock could lead the market back to April's lows, a neutral scenario where tariffs gradually impact the economy leading to narrow fluctuations for 1-2 quarters, and an optimistic scenario where successful U.S.-China negotiations could prevent further downturns [20][26]. - The analysis indicates that the recent tariff shocks are likely to prolong the fluctuation period without altering the overall bull market trend, drawing parallels to past events such as the 2013 liquidity crisis and the early 2020 pandemic [27][30]. - The report emphasizes that the market's rebound is expected to be limited in scope due to the recent tariff impacts, with a potential for a small pullback from late May to July, but the overall market valuation remains low, suggesting that the recent lows may represent a significant support level [30][34]. Group 3 - The report provides a configuration suggestion favoring value-oriented sectors such as banking, real estate, and military industry, while also highlighting the potential for new consumption models and sectors benefiting from geopolitical dynamics [32][30]. - It is noted that the market's performance this week saw significant gains in indices such as the ChiNext 50 and the ChiNext Index, with defense and military sectors leading the gains, while real estate and electronics showed smaller increases [33][34]. - The report mentions that the recent inflow of capital into the A-share market, particularly from foreign investors, is based on recognition of policy, long-term valuation, and industry trends, which may stabilize the market [9][3].

- The report primarily focuses on the weekly market review and the impact of the new regulations issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on May 7, 2025, aiming to promote high-quality development in the public fund industry[12][13][14] - The CSRC's new regulations emphasize long-term performance evaluation, floating management fee mechanisms, and strengthening the role of performance benchmarks to shift fund managers' focus from short-term speculation to long-term value investments[13][14] - The report highlights the weekly performance of major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3342 points (+1.92%), Shenzhen Component Index at 10126.83 points (+2.29%), and ChiNext Index at 2011.77 points (+3.27%) during the week of May 5-9, 2025[13][15][16] - The report discusses the allocation trends of active equity funds, showing a slight reduction in average positions to 86.84%, with ordinary stock funds at 89.65%, mixed equity funds at 87.25%, and allocation funds at 84.74%[22][23][24] - Active equity funds demonstrated defensive adjustments and structural shifts, with increased allocations to mid-cap balanced styles and decreased allocations to small-cap growth styles, which still dominate at 48.6%[29][30][31] - Sector-wise, active equity funds increased allocations to industries like computers (+0.71%), media (+0.44%), and automobiles (+0.42%), while reducing allocations to sectors like communication (-0.98%) and national defense (-0.56%)[33][34][35] - The report tracks ETF market trends, noting a net outflow of 83.48 billion yuan from broad-based ETFs, while industry-specific ETFs like TMT recorded net inflows of 25.55 billion yuan[42][43][68] - Newly established funds during the week include 15 domestic funds, with significant issuances like the "Build Trust SSE STAR Board Comprehensive Linkage A" fund, totaling 19.55 billion yuan[72][73][74]

证券研究报告 降息落地后资金利率中枢有望继续向政策利率靠拢 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250511 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 3降息落地后资金利率中枢有望继续向政策利率靠拢 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 ➢ 4 月政府债净融资 7938 亿元，其中国债净融资 2658 亿，地方债净融资 5281 亿元。本周披露的 10Y 附息国债和中央金融机构注资特别国债规模低于预 期，而 63D 贴现国债发行规模略高于预期，我们预计 5 月国债净融资规模约 8600 亿元；同时维持 5 月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [12][13] - The coal price is expected to remain weak in May due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but there is a bottom support for prices, and a gradual recovery is anticipated as the peak season approaches [3][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still present [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 635 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The international thermal coal price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.8 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1380 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 96.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points week-on-week [47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 33.80 thousand tons/day, a rise of 12.17% week-on-week [12] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 12.40 thousand tons/day, a decline of 6.67% week-on-week [12] Inventory Situation - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port has increased to 753 thousand tons, up 8.0% week-on-week [5] - The inventory of coking coal at production sites has risen to 390.43 thousand tons, an increase of 8.9% week-on-week [5] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown a 1.47% increase this week, underperforming the broader market [15] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for stable operations and solid performance [13]

山东省出台首份 136 号省级承接文件，欧盟计划 2027 年终止进口俄能源 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 10 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that daily pig iron production remains high, with an average of 2.4564 million tons as of May 9, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.22 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 149,700 tons [5][6]. - The steel market has shown a positive performance, with the steel sector rising by 2.09%, outperforming the broader market [5][13]. - The report indicates a marginal improvement in downstream demand, supported by increased funding availability for construction projects, which is expected to bolster steel demand [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 2.09%, with sub-sectors such as special steel up by 3.41% and long products up by 1.90% [5][15]. - The average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 92.1%, a week-on-week increase of 0.09 percentage points [28]. 2. Production Data - As of May 9, the total production of five major steel products was 7.64 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 93,600 tons, or 1.21% [27]. - Daily pig iron production was reported at 2.4564 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.49% [28]. 3. Consumption Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.452 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 125,660 tons, or 12.94% [38]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 103,000 tons, down 8.58% week-on-week [38]. 4. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products reached 10.33 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 93,500 tons, or 0.91% [46]. - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.43 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 19.62%, or 4.63% [46]. 5. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,453.7 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 37.38 yuan/ton, or 1.07% [52]. - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,650.3 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase of 2.55 yuan/ton [52]. 6. Profitability - The average cost of pig iron was reported at 2,297 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.0 yuan/ton [60]. - The profit per ton for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 90 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 38.0 yuan/ton [60]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ningbo Huaxiang (002048.SZ) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's strategic partnerships and potential growth in the robotics sector [2][3]. Core Insights - Ningbo Huaxiang signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Xiangshan Industrial Investment Group and Shanghai Zhiyuan New Technology Co., Ltd. to enhance collaboration in various areas including joint ventures, robot assembly, supply chain, and overseas business expansion [2]. - The partnership aims to accelerate the commercialization, industrialization, and globalization of domestic robotics, with clear division of roles among the three parties [3]. - The company plans to establish a joint venture to purchase robots from Zhiyuan for its own production and warehousing applications, facilitating data collection and training for performance optimization [4]. - Ningbo Huaxiang will invest in building an assembly production line for embodied robots and participate in related fund investments to enhance the humanoid robot industry's progress [4]. - The company achieved overseas revenue of 5.64 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 21.4% of total revenue, and has R&D centers in China, the US, and Germany, which positions it well for global market expansion [4]. Summary by Sections Commercialization - The establishment of a joint venture will allow Ningbo Huaxiang to utilize robots for diverse applications, aiding in data collection and training for performance optimization [4]. Industrialization - Ningbo Huaxiang will leverage its advanced construction experience to invest in an assembly production line for embodied robots, positioning itself as an original equipment manufacturer [4]. Globalization - The strategic cooperation is expected to enhance Ningbo Huaxiang's global market competitiveness by utilizing its resource network in overseas regions [4].