化债持续推进，部分环保企业应收问题改善 【】【】[Table_Industry] 环保周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 156.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 环保 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 郭雪 环保联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 邮 箱：guoxue @cindasc.com 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮 箱：wuboying@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 化债持续推进，部分环保企业应收问题改善 2025 年 6 月 29 日 本期内容提要: ...

The provided content does not contain any quantitative models or factors, nor does it include any related construction processes, formulas, evaluations, or backtesting results. The documents primarily focus on industry analysis, company updates, and market trends across various sectors such as light manufacturing, exports, new tobacco products, home furnishings, and others. There is no mention of quantitative models or factors in the provided text.

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Momentum Model - Construction Idea: The momentum model is designed to capture the trend-following behavior in the market, particularly effective during the end-of-quarter period when funds tend to adjust their positions based on recent performance trends [13][37] - Detailed Construction Process: The model identifies stocks with strong recent performance and allocates more weight to them. The formula used is: $ \text{Momentum Score} = \frac{\text{Price}_{t} - \text{Price}_{t-1}}{\text{Price}_{t-1}} $ where $\text{Price}_{t}$ represents the current price and $\text{Price}_{t-1}$ represents the price at the previous time period [13][37] - Evaluation: The momentum model performs well during the end-of-quarter period, aligning with the characteristic fund allocation behavior [13][37] Model Backtesting Results Momentum Model - Information Ratio (IR): 1.75 [38] - Excess Return: 1.95% [38] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Value Factor - Construction Idea: The value factor aims to identify undervalued stocks by comparing their market price to fundamental metrics such as earnings, book value, and cash flow [13][29] - Detailed Construction Process: The factor is constructed using the following formula: $ \text{Value Score} = \frac{\text{Earnings}}{\text{Price}} + \frac{\text{Book Value}}{\text{Price}} + \frac{\text{Cash Flow}}{\text{Price}} $ where $\text{Earnings}$, $\text{Book Value}$, and $\text{Cash Flow}$ are fundamental metrics, and $\text{Price}$ is the current market price [13][29] - Evaluation: The value factor has shown a significant shift in fund allocation from growth to value stocks since April, indicating its effectiveness in capturing the market's structural adjustments [29][33] Factor Backtesting Results Value Factor - Information Ratio (IR): 1.38 [38] - Excess Return: 1.45% [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - Oil prices have retracted from geopolitical premiums due to recent diplomatic developments, including a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, and a request from Trump for energy producers to lower prices. As of June 27, 2025, Brent and WTI prices were $66.80 and $65.52 per barrel, respectively [7][28]. - The report highlights a decrease in oil prices, with Brent down by 11.50% and WTI down by 11.27% compared to the previous week. Russian Urals prices remained stable, while ESPO prices fell by 11.13% [28]. - The report notes a slight increase in U.S. crude oil production to 13.435 million barrels per day, while the number of active drilling rigs decreased to 432 [48][49]. - U.S. refinery crude processing increased to 16.987 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 94.70%, up by 1.5 percentage points [59]. - The total U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 5.599 million barrels to 818 million barrels, with commercial inventories down by 5.836 million barrels [69]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of June 27, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $66.80 per barrel, down by $8.68 per barrel (-11.50%) from the previous week. WTI crude futures settled at $65.52 per barrel, down by $8.32 per barrel (-11.27%) [28]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 378, an increase of 1 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling platforms decreased to 134, down by 2 [37]. U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.435 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.04 million barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs decreased by 6 to 432 [48]. U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing increased by 125,000 barrels per day to 16.987 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 94.70% [59]. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory was 818 million barrels, a decrease of 5.599 million barrels (-0.68%) from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels (-1.39%) [69]. Related Stocks - Key stocks mentioned include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, and China Oilfield Services [1].

央行 Q2 例会新增信息有限 跨季后资金有望延续宽松 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250629 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 3央行 Q2 例会新增信息有限 跨季后资金有望延续宽松 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [123]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in costs, leading to an overall improvement in refining product margins. The domestic refining project margin reached 2575.82 CNY/ton, up by 190.23 CNY/ton (+7.97%), while the international margin was 1229.14 CNY/ton, increasing by 226.59 CNY/ton (+22.60%) [1][2]. - Brent crude oil's average price decreased to 69.25 USD/barrel, down by 8.31% [1]. - The report indicates that geopolitical tensions initially raised oil prices, but subsequent signals from the U.S. government and diplomatic efforts led to a price drop [1][12]. - The chemical sector saw improved profitability due to a notable drop in costs, with prices for polyethylene and polypropylene rising, while other chemical products experienced slight price declines but improved margins [1][49]. - The polyester sector also showed a rise in price levels, with PX prices following crude oil trends, leading to a significant expansion in price differentials [1][79]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The refining sector experienced a significant increase in product price differentials, with domestic and international margins improving due to falling crude oil prices [1][2]. - The report notes that the average prices for domestic diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel increased, with respective price differentials also rising [12]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector's profitability improved as costs decreased, with notable price increases for polyethylene and polypropylene, while other products like EVA and pure benzene saw slight price drops but improved margins [1][49][62]. - The report indicates that the price of MMA decreased slightly, but the price differential improved [1][66]. Polyester Sector - The polyester industry saw an upward trend in price levels, with PX prices influenced by crude oil prices, leading to a significant expansion in price differentials [1][79]. - The report highlights that the average price for PTA increased slightly, while the industry faced challenges with profitability [1][91].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The electronic sub-industry index has seen significant growth, with the semiconductor sector increasing by 2.70% year-to-date and 4.55% this week [8] - NVIDIA's stock price has reached a new high, with a market capitalization of $3.85 trillion, making it the highest valued public company globally. The CEO indicated that the data center market is transitioning to a trillion-dollar market driven by AI infrastructure [2][8] - Micron's FY25Q3 revenue was $9.3 billion, exceeding guidance, with a year-over-year increase of 37% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 15%. The gross margin was reported at 39.0%, up 10.9 percentage points year-over-year [2][26] - The report suggests focusing on companies in the AI sector, including both overseas and domestic firms, as well as companies in the Apple supply chain [2] Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Performance - The electronic sub-industry index has generally risen, with notable increases in various sectors this week, including a 4.55% rise in semiconductors and a 7.88% rise in other electronics [8] - Key North American stocks have also shown positive performance, with NVIDIA increasing by 9.66% this week [11] NVIDIA Insights - NVIDIA's stock price reflects positive market expectations for the AI industry chain, with significant order growth driven by investments in cloud and sovereign AI infrastructure [2][8] Micron Financial Performance - Micron's FY25Q3 results showed a revenue of $9.3 billion, with a gross margin of 39.0%, indicating strong performance in the DRAM and NAND segments [26][27] - The company anticipates further growth in HBM market share, potentially matching DRAM levels by the second half of 2025 [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring various companies in the AI sector, including both international and domestic players, as well as those in the Apple supply chain [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant growth in wind power installations, with a 134.2% year-on-year increase in new installations from January to May 2025, totaling 46.28 GW [20] - The report emphasizes the potential recovery in profitability for the electric vehicle battery sector, driven by a decrease in lithium carbonate prices and advancements in fast-charging technology [2][3] - The energy storage sector is expected to maintain high growth, with commercial storage opportunities emerging through virtual power plants and increased demand for household storage as summer approaches [3] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing strong demand in Europe and domestic ground power stations, with new technologies like TOPCON and HJT accelerating production [3][18] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The lithium battery sector is anticipated to recover, with a potential turning point in supply excess and a decrease in lithium carbonate prices stimulating downstream demand [2] - In May 2025, new energy vehicle sales reached 1.307 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36.9% [14] - The installed capacity of power batteries in May 2025 was 57.1 GWh, up 61.3% year-on-year [15] Power Equipment and Energy Storage - The report suggests that 2025 is likely to be a significant year for grid investment, with increasing demand for power equipment driven by new industries and the need for grid upgrades due to renewable energy development [2][3] - The energy storage market is expected to thrive, with large-scale storage and commercial storage gaining traction [3] Photovoltaics - The report notes that the photovoltaic industry is benefiting from high demand in Europe and a robust domestic market, with new technologies expected to drive further growth [3][18] Wind Power - Wind power installations have seen a substantial increase, with a reported 134.2% growth in new installations from January to May 2025 [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown resilience during the off-peak season, with a notable increase in iron and steel production, indicating a potential investment opportunity [3][4] - The report highlights that despite challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [4][6] - The report suggests that certain steel companies are undervalued and presents structural investment opportunities, especially for high-margin special steel enterprises and leading companies with strong cost control [4][6] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector rose by 2.16%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products seeing increases of 2.64% and 3.70% respectively [3][11] - The average daily pig iron production reached 2.4229 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase [25][40] Supply Data - As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.8%, with a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.703 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 1.59% [25][24] Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products decreased to 8.799 million tons, a decline of 0.49% week-on-week [33][29] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders increased slightly, indicating stable demand in that segment [33] Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 9.065 million tons, down 0.72% week-on-week [40][37] - Factory inventory increased to 4.335 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 1.82% [40][38] Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel decreased to 3344.6 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.49% week-on-week [46] - The comprehensive index for special steel fell to 6591.1 yuan/ton, down 0.29% week-on-week [46] Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 145 yuan, a decrease of 6.45% week-on-week [54] - The average cost of pig iron was reported at 2138 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline [54] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [4][70]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector stocks [11][12] - The coal price has stabilized and is expected to continue its upward trend due to safety inspections in production areas, ongoing inventory depletion at ports, and the initiation of peak season demand [11][12] - The valuation of the coal sector remains low, and the continuous improvement in fundamentals and price expectations has not yet been fully reflected, highlighting the sector's investment value [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of June 28, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 614 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][29] - The international thermal coal offshore price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 65.3 USD/ton, down 1.3 USD/ton week-on-week [11][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1250 CNY/ton [11][31] Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 92.9%, down 1.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the coking coal mine utilization rate is 82.48%, down 2.0 percentage points [11][48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 14.5 thousand tons/day (+4.13%), while consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 1.6 thousand tons/day (-0.84%) [11][49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Power Investment [12][13] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, high cash flow, and high dividend yields, making it an attractive investment opportunity [12][13]