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华泰期货流动性日报-20260202
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 05:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of different market sectors on January 30, 2026, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 11884.99 billion yuan, a +10.93% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 18368.76 billion yuan, a - 1.55% change; the trading - holding ratio was 64.31% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 3402.57 billion yuan, a -1.70% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 8866.10 billion yuan, a +1.13% change; the trading - holding ratio was 38.16% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 19890.90 billion yuan, a +43.70% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 7896.08 billion yuan, a -5.94% change; the trading - holding ratio was 234.64%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 27499.98 billion yuan, a +67.63% change; the holding amount was 6811.24 billion yuan, a -8.35% change; the trading - holding ratio was 426.00% [1] V. Energy Chemical Plate - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 10753.22 billion yuan, a +60.58% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 5194.85 billion yuan, a -2.45% change; the trading - holding ratio was 174.57% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 3604.70 billion yuan, a +14.87% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 6321.50 billion yuan, a -3.26% change; the trading - holding ratio was 52.24% [1] VII. Black Building Material Plate - On January 30, 2026, the trading volume of the black building material plate was 2498.60 billion yuan, a +25.48% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3116.39 billion yuan, a -1.51% change; the trading - holding ratio was 75.28% [2]
新能源专题报告:114号文对储能及碳酸锂品种的影响分析
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-01 13:36
Group 1: Report Summary - The report analyzes the impact of Document No. 114 on the energy storage and lithium carbonate sectors [1] - On January 30, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Tariff Mechanism on the Power Generation Side", aiming to support energy transformation [3][8] - The notice and the 15th Five - Year Plan form policy synergy, and the new energy storage in China has entered a new stage of large - scale development [3] - In the next 5 years, new energy storage will steadily reach 642GW, doubling the 15th Five - Year Plan target, with an average annual growth rate of 4.2%, and will drive the demand for lithium carbonate to increase by nearly 1 million tons [3] Group 2: Hedging Strategy - In the short term, it will continue to support the upward trend of lithium carbonate prices [4] Group 3: Core Content of the Notice - The notice constructs a "classified improvement + unified compensation + supporting optimization" system, filling the gap in the capacity tariff for independent new energy storage on the power grid side [9] - The classified capacity tariff mechanism is established, and a unified compensation mechanism for reliable capacity is set up after the continuous operation of the spot market, covering coal - fired power, gas - fired power, and eligible independent new energy storage on the power grid side [9] - Supporting measures include adjusting the lower limit of the medium - and long - term transaction price of coal - fired power, standardizing the settlement of energy storage charging and discharging electricity fees, and optimizing the cost sharing of regional pumped - storage [9] Group 4: Core Policies for Different Power Sources - For coal - fired and gas - fired power, the proportion of fixed cost recovery by coal - fired power capacity tariff is ≥50%, and gas - fired power can establish a capacity tariff [10] - For pumped - storage, existing projects maintain government pricing, and new projects adopt a "unified capacity tariff + market revenue sharing" model [10] - For independent new energy storage on the power grid side, capacity tariff can be given, calculated according to the coal - fired power capacity tariff standard combined with peak - shaving capacity, and managed by a list system [10] Group 5: Core Impact on the Energy Storage Industry - Policy synergy: The capacity tariff policy in the notice activates the energy storage market, promoting new energy storage to move from a "supplementary role" to a "main support" [11] - Technical orientation: Focus on long - duration energy storage, promoting the transformation of lithium - ion batteries and the large - scale development of non - lithium long - duration energy storage and sodium - ion batteries [11] - Market expansion: The notice helps to achieve the 300GW new energy storage installation target in the 15th Five - Year Plan [11][12] - Industrial linkage: It drives the growth of demand in the energy storage industry chain and upstream raw materials, and promotes the technological iteration of non - lithium energy storage [11] Group 6: New Energy Storage Installation Forecast - From 2026 - 2030, the cumulative new installation of new energy storage will reach nearly 500GW, and the cumulative installation will increase from 144.7GW to over 640GW [12] - From 2026 - 2029, it is a steady promotion period with a gradually slowing growth rate, and in 2030, new installation will decline [12][16] - Sodium - ion batteries and other technologies will penetrate at a moderate pace, and long - duration energy storage will become the mainstream in 2030 [12][16] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Demand Calculation - Core assumptions include the proportion of different technical routes, consumption standards, and conversion standards [14] - From 2026 - 2030, the cumulative new installation of new energy storage will be close to 500GW, with an average annual growth rate of about 4.2%, and will drive the demand for lithium carbonate to change [14][15][16] - The demand for lithium carbonate will increase from 12.30 million tons in 2025 to 23.43 million tons in 2029, and then drop to 12.66 million tons in 2030 [15]
地产上涨,上证50反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 07:38
FICC日报 | 2026-01-30 地产上涨,上证50反弹 市场分析 关注中外关系。宏观方面,国家主席习近平会见来华访问的英国首相斯塔默,国务院总理李强同斯塔默举行会谈。 中英双方达成一系列积极成果,其中:双方致力于发展中英长期稳定的全面战略伙伴关系;双方欢迎成立中英金 融工作组并召开首次会议;中方积极考虑对英国公民实施单方面免签政策;中方将威士忌酒进口关税税率由10% 降至5%。2026年全国春节文化和旅游消费月正式启动。从即日起持续至3月初,各地将举办约3万场次文旅消费活 动,发放超3.6亿元消费券等消费补贴,推出门票减免、票根联动优惠、跨区域文旅优惠等举措。海外方面,美国 国会参议院在程序性投票中未能推进已获众议院通过的政府拨款法案,美国联邦政府再次面临部分"停摆"的危机, 美国数个联邦部门的运转资金将于1月30日耗尽。 沪指收涨。现货市场,A股三大指数震荡,上证指数涨0.16%收于4157.98点,创业板指跌0.57%。行业方面,板块 指数涨多跌少,食品饮料、传媒、房地产、非银金融行业领涨,电子、国防军工、电力设备、机械设备行业跌幅 居前。当日沪深两市成交额升至约3.2万亿元。海外方面,美国三大股 ...
华泰期货股指期权日报-20260130
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 07:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various index options on January 29, 2026, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On January 29, 2026, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1045400 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1397500 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1868600 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 70200 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1291100 contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 69300 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 94900 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 332200 contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of different index ETF options on that day, such as the total trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1299600 contracts [19] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.55, with a month - on - month change of - 0.28; the position PCR was 0.85, with a month - on - month change of + 0.12. Similar data for other options are also provided [2] - The table presents the turnover PCR, its month - on - month change, position PCR, and its month - on - month change of different index ETF options [33] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 18.35%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.05%; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 18.33%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03%. Similar data for other options are also given [3] - The table shows the VIX and its month - on - month change of different index ETF options [46]
成本端维持强势,盘面延续上行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 06:14
石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-30 成本端维持强势,盘面延续上行 市场分析 1、1月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情:主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3478元/吨,较昨日结算价上涨114元/吨,涨幅 3.39%;持仓170058手,环比下跌5221手,成交402578手,环比下跌51997手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价:东北,3506—3550元/吨;山东,3130—3300元/吨;华南,3250—3350元/吨; 华东,3200—3230元/吨。 中东局势依然较为紧张,市场担忧美国对伊朗发动军事打击。由于伊朗自身产量规模较大,且临近全球石油运输 最重要的隘口"霍尔木兹海峡",因此一旦发生军事冲突,对石油市场的影响将十分显著。因此在美国打击伊朗风 险增加的背景下,油市隐含的地缘溢价大幅抬升。此外,近期大宗商品宏观情绪整体升温,在贵金属、有色领涨 的引领下,部分资金流入能源化工等相对低位板块,促进了市场的涨幅。在地缘与宏观因素的催化下,国际油价 持续走高,沥青成本端支撑增强。此外,沥青在美国逐步控制委内瑞拉石油资源后,国内沥青生产的核心原料供 应收紧,需要在中东等地寻找替代资源,如果中东地区再爆发危机,可 ...
苹果果农交易不畅,红枣节日走货回暖
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 06:11
果蔬品日报 | 2026-01-30 中性。 风险 苹果果农交易不畅,红枣节日走货回暖 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘苹果2605合约9642元/吨,较前一日变动+110元/吨,幅度+1.15%。现货方面,山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP05-1642,较前一日变动-110;陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP05-1242,较前一日变动-110。 近期市场资讯,产区整体行情运行以稳为主,目前客商发前期包装好货源为主,整体包装发运略有加快,主产区 果农统货成交量不佳,多以高次、三级果走货为主,部分果农急售情绪加重。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货 源为主,仍以客商发自存货源为主;甘肃产区客商按需调果农货源,包装发货较为稳定,走货尚可。山东产区成 交一般,礼盒开始零星包装,少量75#货源、三级货源出库为主,交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.2-4.5元/ 斤,80#统货2.5-3元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤,半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/ ...
华泰期货流动性日报-20260130
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 06:10
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation on January 29, 2026, detailing the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Liquidity Overview - On January 29, 2026, the stock index sector had a trading volume of 1071.417 billion yuan, a +22.39% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1865.860 billion yuan, a +3.93% change; the trading - holding ratio was 57.34% [1]. - The treasury bond sector had a trading volume of 346.135 billion yuan, a +20.47% change; the holding amount was 876.678 billion yuan, a +2.26% change; the trading - holding ratio was 39.23% [1]. - The basic metal sector had a trading volume of 1384.210 billion yuan, a +14.59% change; the holding amount was 839.499 billion yuan, a +3.71% change; the trading - holding ratio was 162.85% [1]. - The precious metal sector had a trading volume of 1640.563 billion yuan, a - 7.46% change; the holding amount was 743.180 billion yuan, a +1.35% change; the trading - holding ratio was 238.08% [1]. - The energy - chemical sector had a trading volume of 669.654 billion yuan, a +4.95% change; the holding amount was 532.511 billion yuan, a +1.60% change; the trading - holding ratio was 111.36% [1]. - The agricultural product sector had a trading volume of 313.797 billion yuan, a +4.17% change; the holding amount was 653.433 billion yuan, a +0.73% change; the trading - holding ratio was 44.67% [1]. - The black building materials sector had a trading volume of 199.126 billion yuan, a +37.04% change; the holding amount was 316.419 billion yuan, a +0.23% change; the trading - holding ratio was 61.99% [2]. 3.2 Graphs and Data - There are multiple graphs showing various data such as the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, and price change rate of each sector and its varieties, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][6]
现货表现乏力,豆粕延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 06:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic soybean meal price is expected to be weak in the long - term due to high inventory and future supply pressure from Brazilian new - season soybeans, despite short - term strength influenced by US soybeans [3] - Corn prices may be affected by downstream stocking demand, snow - affected arrivals, and inventory changes [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2802 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2325 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (+1.22%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong had stable soybean meal spot prices, with their basis to M05 decreasing by 20. Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was stable, with its basis to RM05 decreasing by 28 [1] - South American Situation: Argentina's soybean sowing was 96.2% complete as of January 21, with a 10 - percentage - point drop in the proportion of normal - to - excellent crop ratings. Brazil's expected January 2026 soybean exports were 323 million tons, lower than the previous estimate and up 188% from last year [2] Market Analysis - Soybean meal and soybean inventories are high. The domestic soybean meal price is currently strong due to US soybeans, but will likely weaken as Brazilian new - season soybeans are supplied [3] Strategy - The strategy for soybean meal is cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2281 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.31%); the corn starch 2603 contract was 2535 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [4] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was stable, with its basis to C03 decreasing by 7. Jilin's corn starch spot price was stable, with its basis to CS03 decreasing by 5 [4] - Brazilian Exports: Brazil's expected January 2026 corn exports were 339 million tons, lower than the previous estimate but up 6.4% from last year [4] Market Analysis - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking starts. Snow affects corn arrivals, causing prices to rise and deep - processing enterprise inventories to increase. North port inventories increase slightly, while south port domestic inventories are consumed [5] Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [4]
铜价冲高回落,暂时或仍维持震荡格局
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 06:08
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-30 铜价冲高回落 暂时或仍维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情: 2026-01-29,沪铜主力合约开于 102540元/吨,收于 109110元/吨,较前一交易日收盘5.87%,昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 110,310元/吨,收于 106,900 元/吨,较昨日午后收盘上涨0.20%。 现货情况: 据 SMM 讯,昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2602合约报价贴水240至100元/吨,均价贴水170元,上涨70元。现货价格 区间为102450-105920元/吨。期铜主力单边强势上涨,早盘于102600-103100元区间波动后加速上行,盘中触及 108920元历史新高,收于108230元。隔月Contango价差在490-340元之间,当月进口盈亏介于亏损370元至盈利110 元。早间好铜贵溪报贴水140元,平水铜贴水250-200元,中条山等以贴水250元成交,祥光等报贴水240-200元,湿 法铜货紧报贴水290-280元。午后持货商挺价上调,中条山等报贴水190元,JCC报贴水150元。近期若铜价维持高 位将抑制下游采购。月差走扩增强交仓意愿,市场流 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:基本面偏将但需警惕情绪影响-20260130
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals are relatively strong, but the social inventory has not shown an accumulating trend despite entering the consumption off - season. The overall spot premium is stable, but it is declining in Tianjin. The domestic ore supply is weak, but the winter stockpiling of domestic smelters is basically completed with the supplement of imported ore. The imported ore continues to decline, and it's difficult for the imported ore TC to rise before the new Benchmark signing. Comprehensive smelting still faces losses, and the supply pressure of zinc ingots is not obvious. Consumption is still optimistic in the long - term, with low inventory pressure, but short - term sentiment has a great impact. Be vigilant against the overall correction driven by the non - ferrous sector [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$32.06/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 25,290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 25,360 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 25,240 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On January 29, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 25,450 yuan/ton and closed at 25,950 yuan/ton, up 735 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 329,041 lots, and the open interest was 114,501 lots. The highest price during the day was 26,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 25,260 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 117,200 tons, up 400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 109,750 tons, down 625 tons from the previous trading day [3]