1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of global inflation remains unchanged, and the core driver overseas is Trump's policies. His nomination of Kevin Warsh aims to cut interest rates, lower credit - card rates, and boost the real - estate market. Although there was a significant short - term decline in assets such as silver, gold, Bitcoin, and US stocks, the long - term inflation narrative persists [1][2]. - Domestic policies clearly aim to boost inflation, including the central bank's interest - rate cuts and the finance ministry's policy releases. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2]. - In the short term, be vigilant against market fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different investment outlooks, and it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh advocates a "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" policy. After the news, silver fell over 30%, and gold dropped 11%, hitting the biggest single - day decline since March 1980. Bitcoin, precious metals, and US stocks were all under pressure in the short term. Trump hopes to stimulate the economy to grow at a 15% rate, indicating a pursuit of significant rate cuts and higher inflation tolerance [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption - boosting and anti - "involution" measures. The central bank cut interest rates on January 15, and the finance ministry released five important policy documents on January 20. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy and conduct regular treasury bond transactions. China's January CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI declined 1.4% year - on - year [2]. - The US manufacturing activity expanded unexpectedly in January, with the fastest growth rate since 2022. The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January, much higher than the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The US and India reached a trade agreement framework, and Trump confirmed that India would stop importing Russian oil. Japan's ruling coalition won the election, and the prime minister will discuss food tax cuts [2]. Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous sector, Indonesia cut the annual production quota of the world's largest nickel mine to 1.2 billion tons, a 71% drop from 2025, causing the LME nickel price to rise over 2.6%. Precious metals have allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, OPEC + will keep oil production stable in March, and the US will "sell on behalf of" Venezuelan oil. Trump hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel. In the chemical sector, PTA, PVC and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline. Agricultural products need attention on weather and short - term pig diseases, and the black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [3]. News - US employment growth in January exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased. The actual new employment from March 2025 was about 900,000 less than initially reported. November and December non - farm employment numbers were revised down [4]. - After the base - period rotation of China's CPI and PPI, the average impact on the year - on - year index was about 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points respectively. China's January CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI declined 1.4% year - on - year [2][4]. - Indonesia will significantly reduce the production quota of PT Weda Bay Nickel to 1.2 billion tons this year, down from 4.2 billion tons in 2025. Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if the negotiation with Iran fails [2][4].

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-12 1月非农超预期，国债期货大多收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 1月CPI同比上升0.2%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算收 入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：2025年前12个月份社会融资规模增量累计为 35.6万亿元，比去年同期3.34万亿：12月末，M2 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-02-12 标猪供应充足，肥标价差走扩 当前全国生猪均价延续震荡下行态势，单日跌幅较前一交易日大幅收窄，区域市场呈现分化特征，企稳回升区域 数量有所增加，且主要集中于北方产区。从时间节点来看，南北小年相继结束后，市场正式进入春节前最后出栏 窗口期，行业对节后市场走势预期整体转向谨慎，预期下行传导至养殖端，推动出栏积极性提升。普遍采取降重 出栏、加速去库存的经营策略，叠加前期压栏生猪逐步释放，当前市场标猪供给持续充裕，对现货价格形成常态 化压制。消费在小年节日效应支撑下，屠宰量维持高位，然受制于下游增量相对于供应增量仍显承接不足，屠企 多普遍采取降价收购策略。后续需继续跟踪猪价的承压程度以及节后首周的出栏恢复情况。 策略 中性 风险 疫病情况 鸡蛋观点 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2605合约11555元/吨，较前交易日变动+85.00元/吨，幅度+0.74%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.12元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.09元/公斤，现货基差 LH05+565，较前交易日变动-175；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.76元/公斤，较前交易日变动- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PE market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although the cost - side is supported by rising oil prices, the overall fundamentals are weak. The market is expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and post - holiday inventory levels [1][3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. Cost - side support exists, but demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategies are to wait and see for single - side trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,787 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,693 yuan/ton (+5). LL North China spot is 6,550 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 6,700 yuan/ton (+0), and PP East China spot is 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 237 yuan/ton (-12), LL East China basis is - 87 yuan/ton (-12), and PP East China basis is - 13 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 165.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), PP oil - based production profit is - 425.2 yuan/ton (+27.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 517.0 yuan/ton (-54.4) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 106.7 yuan/ton (+11.4), PP import profit is - 251.5 yuan/ton (+53.3), and PP export profit is - 64.1 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE Market**: The macro - sentiment is generally weakening. The plastic market fluctuates in a range. The cost - side support is strengthened by rising oil prices. The supply is under pressure due to more restarted devices and more imported resources, while the demand remains weak in the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - **PP Market**: The cost - side support exists, but the supply increase is limited due to some device overhauls. The demand is expected to decline seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and macro - level guidance [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see, as the rising oil prices and raw material propane provide cost support, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [5] - **Inter - period**: No operation [5] - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Keep an eye on the restart progress of subsequent plants. The production profit of styrene has started to peak and decline, and the market is worried about the possibility of supply returning more than expected under the current production profit. The seasonal inventory build - up of styrene at ports before the festival has not been realized as expected. [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 64 yuan/ton (- 65), and the spread between the spot in East China and M2 is - 135 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton). [1] - Styrene: The main basis is 118 yuan/ton (+ 36 yuan/ton). [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Internal - external Spread of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The processing fee of CFR China is 154 dollars/ton (- 13 dollars/ton), and the processing fee of FOB South Korea is 152 dollars/ton (- 13 dollars/ton). The profit of adipic acid production is - 154 yuan/ton (+ 78), and the profit of aniline production is 1061 yuan/ton (- 73). [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is 420 yuan/ton (+ 41 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. [1] 3.3 Inventory and Operating Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 29.70 million tons (- 0.80 million tons), and the operating rate starts to bottom out and rebound. [1][2] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 96,200 tons (- 12,400 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 54,000 tons (- 6,800 tons). The operating rate is 70.0% (+ 0.7%), and the domestic operating rate has passed the lowest point. [1][2] 3.4 Operating Rate and Production Profit of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 311 yuan/ton (- 59 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.24% (+ 2.98%). [2] - PS: The production profit is - 339 yuan/ton (- 59 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 55.20% (- 0.40%). [2] - ABS: The production profit is - 657 yuan/ton (- 26 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 64.40% (- 1.70%). [2] 3.5 Operating Rate and Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 660 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 73.16% (- 0.41%). [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 716 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the phenol operating rate is 86.00% (- 2.00%). [1] - Aniline: The production profit is 1061 yuan/ton (- 73), and the operating rate is 89.04% (+ 0.51%). [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 154 yuan/ton (+ 78), and the operating rate is 69.10% (+ 0.60%). [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][6] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The 25/26 global cotton supply-demand pattern is loose, with slow US cotton export sign - up. The short - term ICE US cotton will likely remain low - level volatile, and the medium - to - long - term downward space is limited. In China, the 25/26 cotton production increased significantly, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced. There may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. The short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range [1] - **Sugar**: The 25/26 global sugar market is in a surplus pattern, and the raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation. The long - term supply has potential positive factors. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation [5][6] Group 3: Market News and Key Data - **Cotton**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,745 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.61%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,756 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 16,029 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton. As of February 6, the new cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 90%, 22 percentage points higher than the previous week and faster than last year's 80%. As of the end of January, the 2026 new cotton sales progress in Mato Grosso was about 55% [1] - **Sugar**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.23%). The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan, was 5,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The US 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.41 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.308 million short tons of cane sugar. The sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 15.9% [3] - **Pulp**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,236 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.65%). The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,310 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,885 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price mostly remained stable, with individual prices slightly loosening [5] Group 4: Market Analysis - **Cotton**: Internationally, the short - term ICE US cotton will remain low - level volatile, and the long - term downward space is limited. Domestically, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be tight inventory at the end of the year. The key factors to watch are the reduction of planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation in the short - to - medium - term, and there are potential positive factors in the long - term. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure will ease, and the demand is expected to improve. However, the port inventory is high, and the overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [5] Group 5: Strategies - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range. Key factors to watch are the reduction of new - year planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1][2] - **Sugar**: Adopt an idea of bottom - building through fluctuations in the short - to - medium - term. Key factors to watch are the macro situation and domestic import sugar control policies [5] - **Pulp**: The short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation. The overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply side has significantly shrunk, providing obvious price support, but high polysilicon inventories suppress demand, and prices lack upward momentum. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [1][2]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Although the supply side has shrunk significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains weak due to downstream cost constraints, and the large - scale inventory reduction is slow, suppressing price increases. There is currently no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and the market awaits the supply - demand game [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 11, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8370 yuan/ton, a change of (-40) yuan/ton or (-0.48)% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2605 held 303387 positions at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts on February 10, 2026, was 18117, a change of 1368 from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9400 (0) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 56.2 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1]. - The demand for industrial silicon continued to be sluggish. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were few new orders, polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1]. - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the supply is expected to shrink [1]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading, or options [2]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 11, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon oscillated upward, opening at 48125 yuan/ton and closing at 49180 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 38313 positions (38617 the previous day), and the trading volume was 4793 [2]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 48.50 - 58.80 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [2]. - Polysilicon manufacturer inventories and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.10, with a 2.40% month - on - month change, and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, a 3.77% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 20100.00 tons, a (-0.50)% month - on - month change, and silicon wafer output was 10.38GW, a (-11.66)% month - on - month change [2]. Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Short - term range operation is recommended for single - side trading, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight oscillation in the short term. No strategies are provided for inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures trading, or options [2][4][5]. Other Products - In the silicon wafer market, domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were priced at 1.13 (-0.05) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm at 1.43 (-0.05) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers at 1.23 (-0.05) yuan/piece [3]. - In the battery cell market, the prices of various types of battery cells remained stable, such as the efficient PERC182 battery cell at 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W [3][4]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction prices of various components remained stable, such as PERC182mm at 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W [4]. - Two photovoltaic cell renovation projects in Hefei, Anhui, with a total investment of 34,637 million yuan, were publicly announced for environmental assessment [4].

市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3764元/吨（较前一交易日变动+31元/吨，幅度+0.83%），EG华东市场现货价 3663元/吨（较前一交易日变动+38元/吨，幅度+1.05%），EG华东现货基差-114元/吨（环比-4元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-58美元/吨（环比-2美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-955 元/吨（环比-16元/吨）。 化工日报 | 2026-02-12 卫星转产兑现，EG小幅反弹 核心观点 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为93.5万吨（环比+3.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港实际到港总数11万吨，副 港到港量3万吨；2.9~2.23华东主港计划到港总数18.1万吨，副港到港量5.8万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位，1~2月高供应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大，但卫星计划 2月转产，关注价格上涨后乙烯下游各品种估值的相对变化；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月 底前后进口压力将有所缓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the market liquidity overview of various sectors on February 11, 2026, including trading volume, position value, and trading - position ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Catalog I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading volume, position value, and trading - position ratio of different sectors, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On February 11, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 5054.80 billion yuan, a +2.31% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 15974.82 billion yuan, a +0.06% change; the trading - position ratio was 31.07% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On February 11, 2026, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 5135.73 billion yuan, a +30.17% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 9380.43 billion yuan, a +0.81% change; the trading - position ratio was 53.06% [1] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On February 11, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metals plate was 5233.07 billion yuan, a +15.19% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 6528.19 billion yuan, a +1.40% change; the trading - position ratio was 85.02%. The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 6468.62 billion yuan, a -9.18% change; the position value was 5112.69 billion yuan, a +0.79% change; the trading - position ratio was 158.76% [1] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On February 11, 2026, the trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 3741.54 billion yuan, a -17.06% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 4803.18 billion yuan, a -0.15% change; the trading - position ratio was 65.59% [1] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On February 11, 2026, the trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 2349.22 billion yuan, a -0.73% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 6066.20 billion yuan, a -0.09% change; the trading - position ratio was 41.11% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On February 11, 2026, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 1131.09 billion yuan, a -15.41% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 3175.65 billion yuan, a -0.79% change; the trading - position ratio was 34.73% [2]

尿素日报 | 2026-02-12 厂内库存节前去库 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-02-11，尿素主力收盘1797元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1800 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1810元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：3元 /吨（-12）；河南基差：3元/吨（-12）；江苏基差：13元/吨（-12）；尿素生产利润235元/吨（+0），出口利润1048元/ 吨（-15）。 供应端：截至2026-02-11，企业产能利用率89.14%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为83.47 万吨（-8.38），港口样本 库存量为16.50 万吨（+2.10）。 需求端：截至2026-02-11，复合肥产能利用率32.46%（-9.33%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为57.95%（-8.50%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数11.12日（+2.30）。 厂家春节收单无压力，预计春节前价格坚挺维持为主。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求 端农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中，厂家春节收单基本结束。部分淡储货源2月投放10%。复合肥开工 ...