FICC日报 | 2026-02-13 人民币升破6.9关口，关注美国1月CPI数据 市场分析 关注凯文.沃什观点。1月30日，特朗普总统宣布将提名凯文·沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替5月任期届满的现任主 席鲍威尔；凯文·沃什较为知名的政策主张是"降息+缩表"的政策组合拳，随后市场计价"美联储独立性回顾"，白银 一度跌超30%，黄金一度跌11%创下1980年3月以来的最大单日跌幅，并且当周比特币、贵金属、美股均有所承压， 短期需要警惕极端情绪反转所带来的波动。趋势上，我们认为本轮大跌并不改全球通胀的叙事，本轮海外的核心 驱动是来自特朗普的"一言堂"及其政策，对于凯文·沃什的提名更核心诉求在于降息和推降信用卡利率，以及带动 房地产市场，而相对的，在当下流动性略偏紧的环境中，沃什的"缩表"若想实现，需要更激进的"降息"进行对冲和 配合。美国国会预算办公室（CBO）周三再次警告称，美国正走在一条不可持续的财政道路上，并将未来十年的 赤字预测上调了1.4万亿美元，部分原因是总统特朗普2025年的税法以及移民政策。 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the previous panic selling, market sentiment has recovered, and bullish confidence has gradually returned, which is an important reason for the recent rebound of lithium carbonate. Although the demand is in the off - season before the Spring Festival, the expected significant rebound in lithium - battery production in March supports the price increase. Overall, the support of energy - storage demand, the short - term supply tightness, and the strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector will keep the current price at a high level [1] Market Analysis - On February 12, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 150,000 yuan/ton and closed at 149,420 yuan/ton, with a 3.66% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 304,798 lots, and the open interest was 353,975 lots (the previous trading day's open interest was 356,531 lots). The current basis is - 5,480 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 37,282 lots, a change of 1,755 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 138,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton, a change of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 135,000 - 143,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 4,500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,005 US dollars/ton, a change of 25 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The spot inventory is 102,932 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,531 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,920 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,436 tons; the downstream inventory is 44,492 tons, a month - on - month increase of 835 tons; other inventories are 41,520 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,930 tons. In February, the demand market is in the traditional off - season. Although the medium - and long - term expectations for energy - storage demand remain optimistic, and there is "rush - to - export" support due to the adjustment of export tax - rebate policies in the first quarter, the short - term procurement demand has slowed down [2] Strategy - Currently, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. With the Spring Festival approaching, attention should be paid to the position - holding risk. Short - term range trading is the main strategy. However, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still good. If the price correction is too large, one can consider going long at low prices after the Spring Festival [3] - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. If the correction is large, consider going long at low prices [3] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views - Due to pre - holiday trading slump and factors such as South American soybean bumper harvest and the extension of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the prices of the three major oils are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8782.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 124 yuan or 1.39% compared to the previous period [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8082.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.00 yuan or 0.35% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9047.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84.00 yuan or 0.92% [1] Spot Prices and Basis - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8780.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.79%, and the spot basis was P05 - 2.00, an increase of 54.00 yuan [1] - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was Y05 + 308.00, an increase of 28.00 yuan [1] - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.00 yuan or 0.81%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 753.00, an increase of 4.00 yuan [1] US Soybean Sales and Shipment - The net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 28.2 tons, down from 43.7 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, it was 0.1 tons, up from 0 tons the previous week [2] - The export shipments of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 112.9 tons, down from 138.8 tons the previous week [2] - The net sales of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 28.6 tons, up from 23.3 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, it remained 0 tons [2] - The cumulative sales of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year reached 1017.3 tons, up from 988.7 tons the previous week [2] - The export shipments of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 74.6 tons, down from 80.9 tons the previous week; the cumulative shipments were 507 tons, up from 432.4 tons the previous week; the unshipped volume was 510.3 tons, down from 556.3 tons the previous week [2] Brazilian Soybean Forecast - CONAB predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would reach 177.985 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5045 million tons or 3.8% [2] - The sown area of soybeans in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was expected to reach 48.4344 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.0883 million hectares or 2.3% [2] - The soybean yield in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was expected to be 3.67 tons per hectare, a year - on - year increase of 52.918 kilograms per hectare or 1.5% [2] Other Market Information - The IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 in its February report, expecting a growth of 850,000 barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 930,000 barrels per day [2] - The investigation period for anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed has been extended to March 9, 2026 [2] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 10 was 273,472 tons, a 16.1% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$17.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,480 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 10 yuan per ton to 24,450 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,430 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 12, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,750 yuan per ton and closed at 24,650 yuan per ton, up 165 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,396 lots, and the open interest was 51,593 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,775 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,415 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 160,400 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 103,500 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [3]

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-13 下游开工节前走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4938元/吨（-52）；华东基差-208元/吨（+42）;华南基差-98元/吨（+32）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4730元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2945元/吨（+15）；电石利润67元/吨（+15）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-698元/吨（-39）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利129元/吨（+26）；PVC出口利润15.4美元/吨（+0.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存31.2万吨（+2.4）；PVC社会库存61.4万吨（+2.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.78%（+0.41%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.69%（+0.44%）；PVC开工率78.62%（+0.41%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量101.3万吨（-5.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1958元/吨（+4）；山东32%液碱基差-83元/吨（+27）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价600元/吨（+10）；山东50%液碱报价1 ...

流动性日报 | 2026-02-13 市场流动性概况 2026-02-12，股指板块成交5753.46亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.82%；持仓金额16221.55亿元，较上一交易日变动 +1.54%；成交持仓比为34.89%。 国债板块成交4768.56亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.15%；持仓金额9432.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.56%；成交持 仓比为47.73%。 基本金属板块成交5024.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.98%；持仓金额6499.11亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.45%；成 交持仓比为79.58%。 贵金属板块成交7112.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+9.96%；持仓金额5091.65亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.41%；成交 持仓比为170.09%。 | 一、板块流动性 4 | | --- | | 二、股指板块 5 | | 三、国债板块 6 | | 四、基本金属与贵金属（金属板块） 7 | | 五、能源化工板块 8 | | 六、农产品板块 9 | | 七、黑色建材板块 10 | 能源化工板块成交3614.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.39%；持仓金额4673.74亿元，较上一交易 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical risk premium has boosted oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. However, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the upper - middle reaches after the holiday. For PP, the cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro guidance during the off - season [4][5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and a cautious shorting of the L - PP spread when it is high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,734 yuan/ton (-53), and that of the PP main contract is 6,648 yuan/ton (-45). The spot prices and basis of different regions and varieties have also changed [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 87.3% (+1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (+2.0%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -211.6 yuan/ton (-46.4), and the PP oil - based production profit is -471.6 yuan/ton (-46.4). The PDH - based PP production profit is -546.4 yuan/ton (-29.4) [2]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -109.0 yuan/ton (-2.3), the PP import profit is -253.8 yuan/ton (-2.4), and the PP export profit is -53.7 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (-5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (-18.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.3% (-4.3%) [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure remains high due to the high operating rate and more imported resources. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory in the upper - middle reaches may accumulate after the holiday [4]. - **PP**: The cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak. The supply pressure is acceptable in the short - term, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory accumulation situation should be concerned [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the oil price and raw material propane are strong, providing cost support, and the short - term futures market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [6]. - **Inter - period**: No operation [6]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP spread when it is high [6].

果蔬品日报 | 2026-02-13 苹果备货进入尾声，红枣市场逐渐闭市 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9739元/吨，较前一日变动+138元/吨，幅度+1.44%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1739，较前一日变动-138；陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1339，较前一日变动-138。 近期市场资讯，产区节前交易基本收尾，交易较为零星，库内包装发货逐渐减少。目前产地剩余待发货源打包发 货为主，主产区果农货调货有限。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；甘肃静 庄秦产区多以打包客商货源发货为主，庆阳产区交易有所好转。山东产区成交一般，礼盒发运陆续收尾，少量75# 货源、三级货源出库为主。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.2-4.5元/斤，80#统货2.5-3元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统 货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农半商品5-6元/斤，果农一般通货出库 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean pulp and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Brazilian soybean supply pressure will suppress the prices of US soybeans and domestic bean pulp. With sufficient domestic supply, the bean pulp price will maintain a volatile trend, and future focus should be on US soybean purchases and the Brazilian harvest [2] - The corn supply this season is not expected to be loose. The current corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Pulp - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the bean pulp 2605 contract was 2790 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions showed varying changes, with Tianjin at 3170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; Jiangsu at 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; and Guangdong at 3060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The Argentine Rosario Grain Exchange raised its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 48 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons [1] - **Market Analysis**: Favorable weather in Brazil is expected to lead to a record soybean output of 181 million tons, which will put pressure on US soybeans and domestic bean pulp prices. Feed enterprises have basically completed their stockpiling, oil mill bean pulp inventories have increased again, and soybean inventories remain high, resulting in sufficient domestic supply and a volatile bean pulp price [2] Corn - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous day; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2572 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.04%. Spot prices in different regions also had different changes. On February 11, US exporters reported selling 230,560 tons of corn for the 2025/2026 market year [3] - **Market Analysis**: Last season's corn imports were low, and channel inventories were significantly depleted. Although there was a good harvest in Northeast China this season, affected by floods in North China and without the full implementation of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply this season is not expected to be loose. The current corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4]

策略 谨慎偏空 现货方面：2026-02-12，LME铅现货升水为-48.07美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16575元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 16625元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16575元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至16650元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至 9850元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9975元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-12，沪铅主力合约开于16800元/吨，收于16695元/吨，较前一交易日变化-45元/吨，全天交易日 成交29928手，较前一交易日变化-48手，全天交易日持仓32162手，手较前一交易日变化-5898手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16805元/吨，最低点达到16685元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于16700元/吨，收于16705元/吨，较 昨日午后收盘下降0.30 ...