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轮胎开工率季节性下降
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 07:53
化工日报 | 2026-02-13 轮胎开工率季节性下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面,昨日收盘RU主力合约16450元/吨,较前一日变动-125元/吨;NR主力合约13370元/吨,较前一日变动-75 元/吨;BR主力合约12715元/吨,较前一日变动-305元/吨。 现货方面,云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16250元/吨,较前一日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15350元/吨,较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1990美元/吨,较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1930 美元/吨,较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12800元/吨,较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价12600元/吨,较前一日变动-50元/吨。 2025年12月我国汽车产销分别完成329.6万辆和327.2万辆,环比分别下降6.7%和4.6%,同比分别下降2.1%和6.2%。 2025年全年,汽车产销量分别为3453.1万辆和3440万辆,同比分别增长10.4%和9.4%,产销量再创历史新高,连续 17年稳居全球第一。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年12月报告预测 ...
印尼镍矿事件持续发酵,镍价高位震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 07:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, due to continuous fermentation of the Indonesian nickel mine event, nickel prices are in high - level oscillations. Near the Spring Festival, prices are expected to fluctuate, and interval operations are recommended. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips [2][3][4] - For the stainless - steel market, influenced by the cost support from nickel and factors such as pre - holiday capital withdrawal and stagnant spot trading, prices are also expected to fluctuate near the Spring Festival. Interval operations are recommended, and buying on dips can be considered when the price drops substantially [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 139,960 yuan/ton and closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, a change of 1.79% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 433,838 (-84,787) lots, and the open interest was 70,629 (-5,811) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose with a reduction in positions and closed up. Driven by the significant reduction of the Indonesian nickel mine quota policy, the price rebounded strongly, but near the Spring Festival, funds and trading were cautious. On February 11, the Indonesian government planned to significantly cut the production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel. Its ore production quota this year dropped from 42 million tons to 12 million tons, a decrease of up to 71%, far exceeding market expectations [2] - **Nickel Mines**: The RKAB quota of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons. With a large - scale mine's quota reduced by over 70%, the premium of Indonesian nickel mines continued to rise, driving up the nickel - iron quotation. The supply of nickel mines was tight, and the premium of some large - island Indonesian nickel mines rose to 32 - 35 US dollars/wet ton, strongly supporting the bottom price of nickel - iron. In January, the nickel - iron production in Indonesia decreased significantly due to raw - material shortages and pre - holiday centralized maintenance of some projects. It is expected that the production will continue to decline in February. Currently, the quotes of high - nickel pig iron from suppliers are mainly concentrated around 1,060 - 1,070 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the market quotes tend to rise [3] - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 149,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market basically entered the vacation state, and spot transactions were suspended. The spot premiums and discounts of various refined - nickel brands mostly remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 750 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,386 (636) tons [3] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct interval operations. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel - ore supply interference, there is a certain support at the cost end. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly conduct interval operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 14,190 yuan/ton and closed at 13,970 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,890 (+3,307) lots, and the open interest was 100,602 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened high and closed low, fluctuating and closing down. Supported by the cost of Shanghai nickel but suppressed by pre - holiday capital withdrawal and stagnant spot trading, its overall performance was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel. Near the Spring Festival, downstream processing enterprises basically stopped work, spot - market transactions were suspended, and traders gradually took holidays. Stainless - steel social inventories entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and supply pressure gradually emerged [4][5] - **Spot**: Spot trading was basically suspended, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 8.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,051.5 yuan/nickel point [5] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct interval operations. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel - ore supply interference, there is a certain support at the cost end. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly conduct interval operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5] Figures - There are 14 figures in the report, including LME closing price and spot price, Shanghai nickel main - contract closing price and SMM spot price, refined - nickel import profit and loss, Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts, LME nickel registered warehouse receipts, SMM nickel six - region total inventory, red - soil nickel - ore mainstream quotes, Chinese mainstream nickel - iron prices, Chinese mainstream imported chrome - ore prices, main - producing - area high - carbon ferrochrome prices, Foshan stainless - steel coil prices, 304/2B cold - rolled stainless - steel coil prices, 304 stainless - steel mainstream production profit margins, and stainless - steel total inventory. The data sources mainly include SMM and Mysteel [6][7][8]
购销逐渐转淡,肥标价差走扩
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 07:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the pig and egg sectors are neutral [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The national average pig price continues its narrow - range oscillation, with regional price differentiation. Most areas are stable or slightly rising, while the Northeast is experiencing a slight decline. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter volume has decreased after peaking, and the market's buying and selling sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival price callback and post - festival restocking [2] - The national egg spot price continues to decline, and the daily average decline has widened. With the approaching Spring Festival, logistics are restricted, leading to inventory accumulation in production areas and a weakening of egg prices. The terminal consumption is light, and there is a lack of substantial support for prices. The post - festival price callback range needs to be tracked [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2605 contract yesterday was 11,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 15.00 yuan/ton (- 0.13%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary pigs was 12.38 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.26 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 11.93 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.17 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 10.79 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product prices: On February 12, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 129.48, up 0.03 points from the previous day; the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index was 132.31, up 0.04 points. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 18.07 yuan/kg, down 0.5% from the previous day; beef was 66.57 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 65.06 yuan/kg, up 0.7%; eggs were 8.28 yuan/kg, up 0.5%; and white - striped chickens were 17.24 yuan/kg, down 0.9% [1] Market Analysis - The national average pig price shows a narrow - range oscillation, with regional differences. As the Spring Festival approaches, the scale farms' slaughter volume has decreased slightly, but the supply remains abundant. Some farmers are resisting price cuts, which supports price stability. The pre - festival centralized stocking is almost over, and the market's buying and selling sentiment has weakened. The slaughter volume has decreased after peaking, and southern regions will stop slaughtering later than the north. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival price callback and post - festival restocking [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for the pig market is neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2603 contract yesterday was 3200 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 277.00 yuan (+ 9.48%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.51 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.45 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.89 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The national egg spot price continues to decline, and the daily average decline has widened. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics are restricted, leading to inventory accumulation in production areas and a weakening of egg prices. The terminal consumption is light, and there is a lack of substantial support for prices. The post - festival price callback range needs to be tracked [4][5] Strategy - The investment strategy for the egg market is neutral [6]
下游整体开工环比上升
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 07:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall downstream start - up of propylene increased month - on - month. The supply of propylene is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand has a rigid support but may be limited due to cost pressure. The cost side is volatile, and the future trend mainly depends on the cost end and downstream demand [1][2] - For investment strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period and inter - variety trading [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6225 yuan/ton (-47), the East China spot price is 6430 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price is 6445 yuan/ton (+0). The East China basis is 205 yuan/ton (+47), and the Shandong basis is 220 yuan/ton (+47) [1] - Figures related to this section include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, 03 - 04 contract spread, PL03 - 05 contract spread, and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][6][15] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene production capacity utilization rate is 73% (+1%), the China CFR - Japan naphtha CFR is 208 US dollars/ton (-5), and the import profit is - 387 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Figures related to this section include China CFR - Japan naphtha CFR, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH production capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins production capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery production capacity utilization rate, South Korea FOB - China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][21][31] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder production capacity utilization rate is 26% (-5.74%) with a production profit of - 245 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane production capacity utilization rate is 71% (+1%) with a production profit of - 352 yuan/ton (+20); n - butanol production capacity utilization rate is 86% (+1%) with a production profit of 242 yuan/ton (-180); octanol production capacity utilization rate is 95% (+4%) with a production profit of 88 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid production capacity utilization rate is 84% (+2%) with a production profit of 235 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile production capacity utilization rate is 72% (+3%) with a production profit of - 1252 yuan/ton (+0); phenol - acetone production capacity utilization rate is 89% (+3%) with a production profit of - 716 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Figures related to this section include the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5][38][53] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene in - plant inventory is 43330 tons (+2860) [1] - Figures related to this section include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5][63]
华泰期货股指期权日报-20260212
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 05:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On February 11, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 524,000 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 744,400 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,114,900 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 42,900 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,030,100 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 20,400 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 67,000 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 201,000 contracts [1] - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes for each option type on the same day is as follows: SSE 50 ETF options (call: 265,400, put: 302,800, total: 568,300); CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) (call: 255,700, put: 370,500, total: 626,200); CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) (call: 465,700, put: 480,900, total: 946,600); Shenzhen 100 ETF options (call: 33,900, put: 15,200, total: 49,100); ChiNext ETF options (call: 466,700, put: 563,500, total: 1,030,100); SSE 50 index options (call: 7,500, put: 12,900, total: 20,400); CSI 300 index options (call: 28,100, put: 21,500, total: 61,400); CSI 1000 index options (call: 108,300, put: 92,800, total: 201,000) [21] Option PCR - The turnover PCR and position PCR, along with their环比 changes, for different options are as follows: SSE 50 ETF options (turnover PCR: 0.72, 环比 change: +0.06; position PCR: 0.82, 环比 change: -0.01); CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) (turnover PCR: 1.05, 环比 change: +0.17; position PCR: 0.88, 环比 change: +0.00); CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) (turnover PCR: 0.69, 环比 change: -0.24; position PCR: 1.20, 环比 change: +0.01); Shenzhen 100 ETF options (turnover PCR: 1.29, 环比 change: +0.24; position PCR: 1.18, 环比 change: +0.00); ChiNext ETF options (turnover PCR: 0.86, 环比 change: +0.26; position PCR: 1.04, 环比 change: -0.04); SSE 50 index options (turnover PCR: 0.36, 环比 change: -0.14; position PCR: 0.65, 环比 change: +0.01); CSI 300 index options (turnover PCR: 0.42, 环比 change: -0.07; position PCR: 0.65, 环比 change: -0.01); CSI 1000 index options (turnover PCR: 0.56, 环比 change: -0.04; position PCR: 0.93, 环比 change: +0.01) [2][34] Option VIX - The VIX and its环比 changes for different options are as follows: SSE 50 ETF options (VIX: 16.49%, 环比 change: +0.24%); CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) (VIX: 16.80%, 环比 change: +0.20%); CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) (VIX: 24.78%, 环比 change: +0.23%); Shenzhen 100 ETF options (VIX: 20.45%, 环比 change: +0.03%); ChiNext ETF options (VIX: 25.86%, 环比 change: -0.10%); SSE 50 index options (VIX: 17.14%, 环比 change: -0.18%); CSI 300 index options (VIX: 17.77%, 环比 change: -0.18%); CSI 1000 index options (VIX: 26.22%, 环比 change: +0.55%) [3][49]
节前氛围平淡,现货大体持稳
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 05:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral investment rating is neutral [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - The pre - holiday atmosphere is dull, and domestic LPG spot prices are generally stable with partial slight declines [1] - The upstream in the East China market has good sales volume, no inventory pressure, and industry players are actively supporting the market. The East China market is still at a low level considering the main delivery areas of PG futures [1] - Recently, overseas LPG supply has tightened marginally, especially due to the significant decline in US production and inventory affected by the cold wave, providing phased support to the outer - market. But there are still resistance factors in the market [1] - High raw material costs suppress the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, causing negative demand feedback. Although some devices restarted this week, the profit situation has not improved significantly [1] - The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk [1] - The game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbs the market, and the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts is more obvious for the main PG2603 contract [1] - The potential uncertainty in the market before the Spring Festival comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between Iran and the US escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic LPG supply, which is a potential upward risk factor for the disk. Otherwise, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied after the impact of the US cold wave fades [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Regional Prices - On February 11, the regional prices of LPG in different markets were as follows: Shandong market 4380 - 4480 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3740 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market 4150 - 4460 yuan/ton; East China market 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4590 - 4830 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] Imported Prices in March 2026 - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane in East China and South China increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 643 US dollars/ton and 633 US dollars/ton respectively, and the CIF prices of butane also increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 633 US dollars/ton and 623 US dollars/ton respectively. The corresponding RMB - converted prices of propane and butane increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Strategy Summary - Unilateral strategy: Be neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, and operate with a light position before the Spring Festival [2] - No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]
主力合约短期走势震荡,关注节后马士基3月第二周开价态度
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 05:04
FICC日报 | 2026-02-12 主力合约短期走势震荡,关注节后马士基3月第二周开价态 度 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation:马士基上海-鹿特丹 WEEK8 报价1210/1920,WEEK9报价 1200/1900,WEEK11报价 1205/1910(其中上海-伦敦基本港WEEK11周报价涨至1320/2100);HPL 2月上半月船期报价1135/1835,2月下半 月船期报价1135/1835,3月份船期报价1835/2935 。HPL发布3月份涨价函1900/3100 MSC+Premier Alliance:MSC 2月上半月价格1280/2140,2月下半月船期价格1280/2140;ONE 2月上半月船期报 价1290/2035,2月下半月船期报价1290/2035,3月上半月船期报价1620/2535;HMM上海-鹿特丹2月上半月船期报 价1233/2036,2月下半月船期1233/2036 ,3月份船期报价1783/3136.MSC发布3月份涨价函1800/3000. Ocean Alliance:CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船期价格1359/229 ...
印尼镍配额大降,镍不锈钢价格反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 05:02
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quota has reversed the market's expectation of a "continuous surplus" in 2026, leading to supply - tightening pricing and a sharp rise in nickel prices. The continuous upward trend in the nickel ore market also supports the increase in nickel prices. For stainless steel, it is a passive follow - up rise driven by cost, with weak fundamentals [1][2][3][4] - Near the Spring Festival holiday, both nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply interference and cost - side support [3][4] Summary of Each Section Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 133,350 yuan/ton and closed at 139,360 yuan/ton, a change of 4.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 518,625 (+237,189) lots, and the open interest was 76,440 (-3,802) lots. The main contract showed a strong unilateral upward trend, breaking through the key pressure level of 140,000. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel mining quota was the main reason for the price increase [1] - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota is 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, a significant reduction of about 30% compared to 3.79 billion tons in 2025. The reduction of a large - scale mine's quota by over 70% has led to an increase in nickel ore premiums. The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the bottom price of ferronickel is strongly supported. In January, the ferronickel production in Indonesia decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [1][2] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 146,700 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,750 (0) tons [2] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 13,735 yuan/ton and closed at 14,145 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,583 (+50,518) lots, and the open interest was 100,625 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, following the rebound of Shanghai nickel, but overall weaker than nickel, being a passive follow - up rise driven by cost [3] - **Spot**: Spot trading basically stopped, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 160 to 360 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,043.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [4]
原油日报:印度考虑采购更多美国与委内原油-20260212
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 05:02
原油日报 | 2026-02-12 印度考虑采购更多美国与委内原油 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨67美分,收于每桶64.63美元,涨幅为1.05%;4月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨60美分,收于每桶69.40美元,涨幅为0.87%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.82%,报480元/桶。 (来源:Bloomberg) 2、 2月11日,印度已要求国有炼油商考虑购买更多美国和委内瑞拉原油,此前特朗普政府称双方达成的贸易协议 中包含印度承诺停止进口俄罗斯原油。熟悉情况的炼油厂高管表示,炼油商通过招标从现货市场寻购原油时,已 被敦促优先考虑美国原油。他们补充说,政府对委内瑞拉原油也提出了类似要求,不过这些原油将通过私下与贸 易商谈判采购。自特朗普称印度作为贸易协议的一部分同意停止购买俄罗斯原油以来,印度的石油采购一直受到 密切关注,而新德里方面尚未对此公开回应。印方的一贯表态是正寻求能源来源多元化,且能源安全仍是重中之 重。尽管如此,印度炼油商能够吸纳的美、委原油数量有限。(来源:Bloomberg) 3、 2月11日,美国政府发布了一项通用许可,允许油田服务公司在委内瑞拉开 ...
有色板块回暖,中证500领涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 05:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector has recovered. If the non - ferrous metals sector stabilizes and rebounds, it will drive the CSI 500 index to rise further, and its sustainability should be monitored [3]. - Before the holiday, trading tends to be cautious, and the market is expected to maintain a pattern of volume - shrinking repair [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economy - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, with the core CPI up 0.8% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, rising for four consecutive months, with the year - on - year decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4% [1]. - In the US in January, the non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and the hourly wage increased by 0.4% month - on - month. However, job growth was concentrated in a few industries, with the healthcare sector adding 124,000 jobs [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - A - share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09% to close at 4131.98 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. Sector indices showed mixed performance. Building materials, non - ferrous metals, and petroleum and petrochemical industries led the gains, while communication, media, and social services industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was less than 2 trillion yuan [2][13]. - Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.16% at 23066.47 points [2]. 3.3 Futures Market - In the futures market, the basis of IC and IM rebounded, with near - month contracts at a premium. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IH and IM increased simultaneously [2][14]. - The trading volume of IF was 62,400, a decrease of 2,853; the open interest was 281,980, a decrease of 464. The trading volume of IH was 30,833, an increase of 1,354; the open interest was 101,315, an increase of 254. The trading volume of IC was 101,790, an increase of 7,140; the open interest was 294,295, a decrease of 1,888. The trading volume of IM was 133,571, an increase of 401; the open interest was 380,005, an increase of 1,372 [14]. - For the basis of futures contracts: for IF, the basis of the current - month contract was 2.38, a decrease of 1.52; for IH, it was 3.14, a decrease of 2.25; for IC, it was 16.59, an increase of 14.03; for IM, it was 20.69, an increase of 16.39 [41]. - For the inter - delivery spread of futures contracts: for the spread between the next - month and the current - month contracts, the spread of IF was - 1.40, an increase of 2.80; the spread of IH was - 0.20, a decrease of 1.00; the spread of IC was - 6.00, an increase of 12.20; the spread of IM was - 19.20, an increase of 6.40 [45].