Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the methanol market, indicating that port inventories have declined slightly from high levels. The import pressure in December is expected to reach an annual high, and the short - term port inventory pressure remains significant. On the mainland, coal - based methanol production is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the inventory of mainland factories has increased slightly. The report also provides corresponding trading strategies [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Section I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are presented to show the basis between methanol spot prices in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China, and the import price differences between different regions [27][31][32] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol decreased to 1349430 tons (- 14070 tons), with Jiangsu port inventory decreasing and Zhejiang port inventory increasing. The mainland factory inventory was 361320 tons (- 12392 tons), and the MTO/P开工 rate was 89.93% (+ 0.28%) [1][2][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report presents price differences between different regions, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, and between Taicang and Inner Mongolia [2][39][47] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [53][57] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on MA2605 for hedging - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when the spread is low - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the pig industry, the decline in pig prices has led to an accumulation of frozen - product inventory, affecting the growth of slaughter volume. End - of - year demand may have limited impact on pig prices, and the current large supply pressure has a more prominent suppressing effect on short - term pig prices [2] - In the egg industry, although capacity reduction has started, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the short - term supply pressure cannot be substantially alleviated. The demand side has limited ability to boost egg prices, and the price increase space is expected to be relatively limited [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,490 yuan/ton, a change of +35.00 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.18 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.05 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.37 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.12 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.33 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.17 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On December 2, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.29 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.34 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.2%; beef was 66.88 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.5%; mutton was 63.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3%; eggs were 7.44 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.5%; and white - striped chickens were 17.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.6% [1] Market Analysis - Pig price decline has led to the accumulation of frozen - product inventory, affecting the growth of slaughter volume. End - of - year pickling demand is slightly lower than expected, and the demand at the end of the year may have limited ability to boost pig prices. The subsequent demand recovery strength remains to be seen, and the current large supply pressure has a more prominent suppressing effect on short - term pig prices [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract yesterday was 3138 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 64.00 yuan (-2.00%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shandong, it was 3.20 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.03 yuan [3] - Inventory: On December 3, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.97 days, an increase of 0.05 days (5.43%); the circulation - link inventory was 1.21 days, an increase of 0.02 days (1.68%) [3] Market Analysis - Although capacity reduction has started, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the short - term supply pressure cannot be substantially alleviated. Against the background of high supply, the demand side has limited ability to boost egg prices, and the current price increase space is expected to be relatively limited [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short-term cost support, limited rebound space under weak supply-demand pattern, likely to fluctuate in the bottom range [4] - Inter-period: LL01 - 05 sell high and buy low; PP01 - 05 sell high and buy low [4] - Inter-variety: None [4] Core Viewpoints - PE faces supply pressure due to low maintenance, new capacity release, and entering the demand off-season, resulting in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited short-term rebound space [2] - PP has a short-term weak supply-demand situation, with supply pressure from existing devices and insufficient demand follow - up. The expected rebound height of the futures market is limited, and attention should be paid to cost disturbances [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures display plastic and polypropylene main contracts and LL East China basis [11][8] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit (crude oil), PE capacity utilization rate, PP production profit (crude oil), PP production profit (PDH method), polypropylene capacity utilization rate, and PP weekly output are presented [16][19][25] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China price differences are shown [6][29][32] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL and PP import and export profits, as well as price differences between overseas regions and China, are provided [37][41][57] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film operating rates, PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, and injection molding operating rates, and PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP production gross margins are presented [58][63][70] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE and PP inventory in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports are shown [72][77][81]

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Oscillating and Bullish [3] Core View - The apple market is in a slow - moving state with regional price differentiation. In the short - to - medium term, prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong due to the approaching Christmas and New Year's Day holidays and the tight supply of high - quality goods [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2605 contract was 9712 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, up 0.35 yuan/jin from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day [1] - The inventory of late Fuji is in light trading. In the western and Shandong production areas, merchants' procurement enthusiasm is low, and the market is mainly supplied by self - stored goods or small - quantity purchases. The sales area has a slow digestion rate, and citrus fruits have a significant impact on medium - and low - grade apple supplies [1][2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated and closed lower. The overall apple market trading is light, the production area's delivery rhythm is slow, and prices show regional differentiation. The market is in a slack season, and prices are expected to be stable, waiting for festival stocking [2] Strategy - The strategy is oscillating and bullish. Quality issues will be the key factor affecting the long - term apple market trend. In the short - to - medium term, prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong due to the approaching festivals and the tight supply of high - quality goods [3] Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - Red dates: Neutral [7] Core View - The red date market is in a critical "new - old season transition" period. There is a strong expectation of a new - season production reduction, but the extent is undetermined. The current market has high inventory pressure and a pessimistic future outlook [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract was 9055 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] - The acquisition of gray dates in Xinjiang's main production areas is about 80% complete. The mainstream prices in different regions vary. The sales areas' markets have different trading situations, with some price differences and weak transactions [4][5] Market Analysis - The red date futures price declined yesterday. The sales area is in a state of "new - old season transition." The new - season production reduction expectation is strong, but the extent is undetermined, and the quality is better than last year. The inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, leading to a pessimistic market outlook [6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season spot, it will drive the futures price to approach the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to decline. Due to the changes in the delivery rules, the old - season red dates can still participate in delivery with lower costs, so the near - month contracts may still have some room for decline [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [4][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, domestic cotton demand is expected to be resilient, and after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [4] - For sugar, short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' price - holding intention limit the downside. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend may be pessimistic [6] - For pulp, recent price increases are driven by the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions, but the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.14%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,862 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2] - The expected cotton planting area in Australia in 2025/26 is 406,000 hectares (6.09 million mu), a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The total cotton output is expected to be 943,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [2] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA significantly increased the global cotton output in 2025/26, while consumption only slightly increased. The global ending inventory rose significantly compared to September and returned to inventory accumulation. US cotton production increased significantly due to higher yields, but exports only increased by 40,000 tons, increasing sales pressure. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the medium - to - long - term upward drive is unclear [3] - Domestically, cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to increase. The expected output in Xinjiang is 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. In the fourth quarter, new cotton is concentrated on the market, commercial inventory is seasonally rising, and short - term supply is abundant. Zhengzhou cotton's upward movement will be suppressed by hedging orders. Downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but spinning profits have improved, and inventory pressure is acceptable, limiting the downside [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, domestic cotton demand is expected to be resilient, and after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [4] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.30%. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,410 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 26 less than the same period last year. Cumulative cane crushing was 1.4411 million tons, 3.2521 million tons less than last year. Sugar production was 133,900 tons, 378,500 tons less than last year. The sugar production rate was 9.29%, 1.63 percentage points lower. Cumulative sugar sales were 89,400 tons, 195,600 tons less than last year. The sales rate was 66.77%, 11.15 percentage points higher. The industrial inventory of new sugar was 44,500 tons, 182,900 tons less than last year [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly sorted. In the international market, Brazil's strong supply strengthened the oversupply expectation, and India's sugar production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to rebound significantly, suppressing the market. In the short - term, India's exports are difficult to increase, and Brazil's supply pressure is gradually weakening, limiting the downside of raw sugar prices. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices [5][6] - In the domestic market, the latest announced sugar and syrup imports are higher than expected, and with the successive start of sugar mills in Guangxi, short - term supply pressure remains [6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' price - holding intention limit the downside, with a possibility of a weak rebound. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend may be pessimistic [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,458 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 2.44%. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,525 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) was 5,050 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [6] - In October 2025, the total inventory at European ports decreased by 10.22% month - on - month and 6.47% year - on - year. Except for a 3.98% month - on - month increase in German port inventory, inventories at ports in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Italy, and Spain decreased by 9.13%, 12.08%, 20.24%, and 2.48% respectively [7] Market Analysis - Yesterday, pulp futures prices rose strongly. On the supply side, there have been continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and maintenance. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill in Canada, with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp. Finns Group announced a temporary shutdown of the Rauma pulp mill with a capacity of 650,000 tons from December 15, expected to resume production gradually on January 7 next year, and is preparing for significant production cuts at the Joutseno pulp mill in 2026 [7] - On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory at European ports in October decreased significantly month - on - month and slightly year - on - year, indicating some improvement in demand. In the domestic market, although there has been a large amount of finished paper capacity put into production this year, terminal effective demand has been insufficient, and the paper industry is in an oversupply situation. Paper mills' operating rates are not high, and overall production has not increased significantly. The oversupply in the paper industry has led to continuous contraction of industry profits. Downstream paper mills are cautious in raw material procurement, resulting in high domestic port inventory [7] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Due to the gradual digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions, pulp futures prices have risen strongly in the past two days. However, the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases. Attention should also be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-04 市场氛围一般，进口成本支撑延续 1、\t12月3日地区价格：山东市场，4430-4500；东北市场，4000-4150；华北市场，4250-4470；华东市场，4270-4500； 沿江市场，4600-4980；西北市场，4350-4480；华南市场，4400-4600。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷588美元/吨，涨8美元/吨，丁烷580美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 市场分析 合人民币价格丙烷4580元/吨，涨60元/吨，丁烷4518元/吨，涨76元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷581美元/吨，涨8美元/吨，丁烷573美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4526元/吨，涨60元/吨，丁烷4463元/吨，涨75元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 沙特阿美公司12月CP上调，LPG进口成本支撑延续。现货方面，昨日华东区域价格温和上涨，其余区域维稳为主， 交投氛围一般，上游库压可控。就基本面来看，近期中东供应边际收紧，科威特阿祖尔炼厂检修延长，国内炼厂 供应相对平稳 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-04 美国"小非农"超预期降温，拖累美元走低 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。中国11月RatingDog服务业PMI微降至52.1，新出口订单表现明显改善。12月3日，法国总统马克龙抵达 北京，开启第四次对华国事访问。A股市场全天震荡调整，创业板 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-04 烧碱库存累积，液氯价格有支撑 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4541元/吨（-34）；华东基差-61元/吨（+24）;华南基差-51元/吨（+4）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4480元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4490元/吨（-30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2880元/吨（+0）；电石利润-50元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-881元/吨（-33）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-9.5美元/吨（-0.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.3万吨（+0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.21%（+2.06%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.12%（-0.19%）；PVC开工率78.85%（+1.37%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.0万吨（-0.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2165元/吨（-46）；山东32%液碱基差116元/吨（+46）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价730元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 1、WTI 1月原油期货收涨0.31美元，涨幅将近0.53%，报58.95美元/桶。布伦特2月原油期货收涨0.22美元，涨幅超 过0.35%，报62.67美元/桶。 2、12月3日，航运数据和文件显示，委内瑞拉11月石油出口小幅上升至约92.1万桶/日，为今年迄今第三高的月度 平均水平。基于油轮动态的数据显示，美国在加勒比海的军事行动并未中断委内瑞拉的石油进出口，委内瑞拉上 月原油和燃料出口较10月增长3%。对美国石油出口增加至约15万桶/日（10月为12.8万桶/日），同时，委内瑞拉石 油副产品和石化产品出口也从10月的19.5万吨上升至约27.7万吨。轻质原油和燃料的进口量从10月份的7.4万桶/日 增至约16.7万桶/日，增幅超过一倍。(来源：Bloomberg) 原油日报 | 2025-12-04 特朗普将下调美国乘用车燃油经济性标准 3、1月（石油重镇Alberta省交易的）Heavy Western Canadian Select与WTI原油期货贴水扩大至13美元/桶，创美国 总统特朗普的政府对加拿大石油加征10%关税以来最大。1月（美国墨西哥湾沿岸交易的）加拿大重油/WTI原 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 现货贴水扩大难以阻碍铝价上涨 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21800元/吨，较上一交易日变化90元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-50元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21680元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-170元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21690元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-160元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-03日沪铝主力合约开于21940元/吨，收于21940元/吨，较上一交易日变化85元/吨，最 高价达21970元/吨，最低价达到21825元/吨。全天交易日成交161612手，全天交易日持仓249248手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-03，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库存66833 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存533400吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-03SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2825元/吨，山东价格录得2760元/吨，河南价格录得 2850元/吨，广西 ...