国债期货日报 | 2025-12-04 央行买债不及预期，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。（2）通胀:10月CPI同比上升0.2%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅增 2%，连续三个月放缓，主 要受上半年财政前置发力后劲不足以及基建类支出走弱影响，社 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The decline in the lithium carbonate futures market on the day was mainly affected by the expected weakening of consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end. Short - term inventory continued to be depleted, but the depletion rate slowed down significantly. The resumption of production at the mine end is advancing, and lithium salt supply has increased significantly. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter, with a predicted decrease in the power battery segment and high - level maintenance in the energy storage segment. Short - term interval operation is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 96,560 yuan/ton and closed at 93,660 yuan/ton, with a - 2.82% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 643,323 lots, and the open interest was 562,836 lots (the previous day's open interest was 552,239 lots). The current basis was - 1,970 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 9,652 lots, a change of 660 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,500 - 96,200 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,000 - 92,800 yuan/ton, also a - 50 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,205 US dollars/ton, a - 10 US dollars/ton change from the previous day. The actual transaction prices in the market were mostly concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are ongoing, with the focus on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2]. - It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In December, new energy vehicle sales are expected to be strong, the energy storage market will continue to have strong supply and demand, and the supply shortage pattern remains. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. Overall, lithium carbonate inventory is expected to continue to be depleted in December, but the depletion rate will slow down compared to November [2]. - In November 2025, Chile exported 18,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 28% month - on - month decrease; the volume exported to China was 14,700 tons, a 9% month - on - month decrease. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 207,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and the volume exported to China was 151,800 tons, a 15% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, Chile exported 10,132 tons of lithium sulfate, all to China, a 493% month - on - month increase. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 82,000 tons of lithium sulfate, a 33% year - on - year increase [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Short - term interval operation [4] - Cross - period: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 下游承压价格走弱，多晶硅基本面表现仍较弱 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-03，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8955元/吨，最后收于8920元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-145）元/吨，变化（-1.60）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓193926手，2025-12-03仓单总数为6892手，较前 一日变化108手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 根据SMM调研，南北地区工业硅开工率分化，川滇硅企继续枯水期减产节奏开工率延续下行趋势。北方个别硅企 有增开或复产开工率上行。增减变化之下预计12月工业硅产量或基本持平于11月。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13200-13500（150）元/吨。SMM报道，在单体企业减排和持续挺价预期 背景下，刺激 ...

油料日报 | 2025-12-04 豆一市场延续僵局，花生供需僵持承压回落 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4139.00元/吨，较前日变化+16.00元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-39，较前日变化-16，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆价格持稳为主。基层余粮逐步见底，农户普遍持粮惜售，对当前价格形成 底部支撑。从贸易环节来看，市场流通节奏相对平缓，多数粮商已完成前期订单履约，当前购销活跃度不高，买 卖双方观望情绪较浓。综合来看，在供需相对平衡的格局下，预计短期内大豆价格将平稳运行。黑龙江哈尔滨市 场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白 中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03 元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前一日平； 黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标 一等 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 2025-12-03，沪铜主力合约开于 89100元/吨，收于 89210元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.33%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 90,070元/吨，收于 90,760 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨2.01%。 美铜维持高溢价 带动铜价整体上行 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货报价升水40-240元/吨，均价升水140元/吨，较昨日上涨20元。1#电解铜价格区 间为88730-89230元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约于88700-89000元区间震荡，临近午盘冲高至89150元附近。市场采销情 绪均较前期改善，但上海地区可流通货源依旧偏紧，支撑现货升水于高位继续攀升。早盘少数升水20元货源被迅 速消化，主流交易时段多数平水铜升水集中在80-130元。常州地区虽有压价，但成交仍维持在升水60元左右。好铜 如金豚大板升水报至200元，金川大板则高达280-300元，供应持续紧张。跨月价差维持C80-C40结构，当月进口亏 损扩大至近1500元。预计今日现货升水将延续坚挺格局，实际成交情况仍有待观察。 重要资讯汇总： 宏 ...

生产行业：1）据悉，欧盟目前正考虑为包括汽车在内的特定商品，设定高达70%的"欧洲制造"目标，此举旨在优 先采购本土商品，以减少欧盟在清洁技术及部分重工业领域对他国的依赖。根据欧盟拟议的新规，具有可能构成 安全风险的太阳能逆变器产业，其主要部件或将必须在欧洲制造。一位欧盟官员表示，70%的采购比例最终可能下 调，且关于本土化内容规则的谈判进展料将艰难。 宏观日报 | 2025-12-04 地产下游销售持续回暖 中观事件总览 服务行业：1）美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月以来最低水平，预估为增加5000人，前值为增加 4.2万人。美国ADP就业报告公布后，现货黄金小幅上涨，美元指数延续跌势，美国两年期国债收益率进一步下跌。 2）12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主题，进行第十七次 专题学习。李强在听取讲解和交流发言后指出，展望"十五五"时期，新型城镇化发展空间仍然很大。要从中国式 现代化全局的高度把握新型城镇化的使命任务，始终把这项工作摆在战略位置抓实抓好，加快补齐短板弱项，努 力实现人的全面发展、城市品质提升和产业聚集升级的互动并进。 数 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 海外升水高位难降 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为250.98美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至22790元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水55元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22700元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-35元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22690元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-45元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-03沪锌主力合约开于22745元/吨，收于22755元/吨，较前一交易日50元/吨，全天交易日成交 106416手，全天交易日持仓104585手，日内价格最高点达到22800元/吨，最低点达到22695元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-03，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.43万吨，较上期变化-0.38万吨。截止2025-12-03，LME 锌库存为52450吨，较上一交易日变化75吨。 市场分析 海外现货升水高位难下滑，海外库存绝对值处于低位，出口利润扩大，国内现货升贴水持续表现为向好趋势，国 内仓单库存小幅下滑，基本面方面全面偏向利好，国内社会库存持续下滑。11月冶炼端产量环比回 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-04 基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3137元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3319元/吨。现货方面，全国建材成交89788吨。 供需与逻辑：供应端，数据显示成材产量库存下降，需求表现尚可。板材数据产量库存数据回升，需求端稍弱。 当前基本面矛盾不突出，换月完成，宏观预期上升市场交易地位，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化 对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储行情启动情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场观望为主，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日，双焦期货市场呈现涨跌分化态势，焦煤主力合约价格回调，焦炭主力合约延续上涨行情。进 口蒙煤市场表现平淡，贸易商情绪谨慎，市场活跃度一般，交投氛围冷清。 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘799.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交119.1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No core viewpoint is explicitly provided in the given content. The report mainly presents daily data on index option trading, including option volume, PCR, and VIX. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Volume - On December 2, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 596,600 contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was 693,200 contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options was 872,500 contracts; that of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 62,700 contracts; that of GEM ETF options was 1,146,500 contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 16,900 contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 index options was 86,800 contracts; and that of CSI 1000 options was 143,500 contracts [1]. - The table also shows the call volume, put volume, and total volume of various index ETF options on the same day, such as 207,100 call contracts and 224,200 put contracts for Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options, with a total volume of 431,300 contracts [18]. II. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.87, with a month - on - month change of +0.16; the position PCR was 1.01, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03. Similar data are provided for other types of options, like the turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 0.98, with a month - on - month change of +0.16; the position PCR was 1.12, with a month - on - month change of - 0.05 [2]. - A table summarizes the turnover PCR, month - on - month change, position PCR, and month - on - month change of various index ETF options [32]. III. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 14.01%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.06%; the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 15.40%, with a month - on - month change of +0.06%. Similar data are presented for other options, such as the VIX of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 19.91%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.40% [3]. - A table provides the VIX and month - on - month change values of various index ETF options [49].

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-12-03 苯乙烯基差走强 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-119元/吨（+16）。纯苯港口库存22.40万吨（+6.00万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费102美元/ 吨（+4美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费92美元/吨（+6美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差169.8美元/吨（-1.0美元/吨）。华东纯 苯现货-M2价差-140元/吨（+10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-635元/吨（-15），酚酮生产利润-602元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润753元/吨（+254）， 己二酸生产利润-1252元/吨（+12）。己内酰胺开工率86.68%（-1.54%），苯酚开工率81.00%（+2.00%），苯胺开工 率77.19%（+1.51%），己二酸开工率59.40%（+3.90%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差51元/吨（+0元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-161元/吨（+2元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存160600吨（-3600吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存96400吨（+2200吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率67.3%（-1.7%）。 ...