市场资讯汇总：昨日东北大豆现货价格整体持稳。市场整体表现较为稳定，不过从贸易环节反馈来看，当前出货 节奏有所放缓，终端需求的释放力度仍需提升。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车 报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市 场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.33元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场 国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.30元/斤。 油料日报 | 2026-01-30 豆一库存偏松惜售，花生备货收尾震荡 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4436.00元/吨，较前日变化+61.00元/吨，幅度+1.39%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+4，较前日变化-61，幅度32.14%。 昨日豆一期货主力合约价格震荡上行。目前上游种植户与贸易商普遍存在惜售心理，偏向持货观望年后走势，市 场库存预计约剩四到五成。同时，下游加工企业在前期收购 ...

油脂日报 | 2026-01-30 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9362.00元/吨，环比变化+92元，幅度+0.99%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8382.00 元/吨，环比变化+56.00元，幅度+0.67%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9446.00元/吨，环比变化+116.00元，幅度+1.24%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9300.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.20%，现货基差P05-62.00，环比变 化+18.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8640.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.23%，现货基差Y05+258.00， 环比变化-36.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10280.00元/吨，环比变化+120.00元，幅度+1.18%，现货基差 OI05+834.00，环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(3月船期)C&F价格1215美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调13美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(5 月船期)C&F价格1149美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调12美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿大菜油(2月船期)1040 美元/吨，与上个交易日 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - International oil prices improved compared to last week, and prices of eggs, palm oil, copper, and zinc continued to rise [2] Midstream - PX and urea prices remained high, power plant coal consumption was low, and road asphalt construction was at a low level [3] Downstream - Commercial housing sales in first, second, and third-tier cities declined seasonally, while domestic flight frequencies increased [3] Industry Events Production Industry - The Commercial Spacecraft and Application Industry Chain Co-chain Action Conference announced that China will layout more "space +" future industries, and China Aerospace Science and Technology Group will implement five major projects during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] Service Industry - The State Council issued a work plan to support service consumption, focusing on key and potential areas, and encouraging the improvement of infrastructure for residential services [1] Key Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of eggs | 8.5 yuan/kg | 4.28% | | Agriculture | Spot price of palm oil | 9296.0 yuan/ton | 5.30% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 103206.7 yuan/ton | 2.97% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price of zinc | 25280.0 yuan/ton | 4.05% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 63.2 dollars/barrel | 4.27% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 67.4 dollars/barrel | 3.26% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 5314.8 yuan/ton | 4.24% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 6905.0 yuan/ton | 3.11% | [34]

原油日报 | 2026-01-30 美国考虑对伊朗实施石油封锁可能性 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨2.21美元，收于每桶65.42美元，涨幅为3.5%；3月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.31美元，收于每桶70.71美元，涨幅为3.38%。SC原油主力合约收涨2.98%，报481元/ 桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 1月30日，特朗普政府颁发了一份通用许可证，扩大了石油公司在委内瑞拉的经营能力，这标志着在美国支持 的新领导层掌控了委内瑞拉后，美国放松对委制裁迈出了重要一步。美国财政部的许可证涵盖了出口、销售、储 存和推广委内瑞拉原油所需的各种活动，包括安排运输和物流服务。此前，委内瑞拉立法者批准了该国油气政策 的历史性改革，一些美国石油公司高管称，这项改革对于在委内瑞拉开展业务至关重要。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 1月29日，伊朗周四警告商业船只，其计划于下周初在霍尔木兹海峡进行实弹海军演习，此举可能会对这条全 球最重要的石油运输路线之一的航运造成影响。通过无线电向船舶广播的警报称，演习将于周日和周一在这条狭 窄水道举行。该水道承担着全球约20% ...

贵金属日报 | 2026-01-30 停摆危机再现 贵金属走出"过山车"行情 市场分析 贵金属市场再度上演"过山车"行情。1月29日，黄金、白银在亚市、欧市交易时段强势走高，现货黄金一度逼近5600 美元/盎司关口，现货白银则连续突破117、118、119、120和121美元/盎司五道关口。纽约市场交易时段金银价格 急转直下，现货黄金直线跳水跌近6%失守5100美元/盎司关口，现货白银则跌超8%失守107美元/盎司，但随后跌幅 双双收窄。美国方面，美国国会参议院在程序性投票中未能推进已获众议院通过的政府拨款法案，美国联邦政府 再次面临部分"停摆"的危机。美国数个联邦部门的运转资金将于1月30日耗尽。地缘方面，伊朗已于1月29日通过 高频无线电向过往船只发布通告，宣布将于2月1日至2日在霍尔木兹海峡举行军事演习，演习内容包括实弹射击。 整体看贵金属避险溢价支撑仍在。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-29，沪金主力合约开于1189.60元/克，收于1249.12元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动5.30%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1246.00元/克，收于1202 ...

下游接货积极性略有回升 但铅价暂时仍难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-29，LME铅现货升水为-48.77美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16775元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至45.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 16825元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16750元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至16850元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-100元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 10050元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10125元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-29，沪铅主力合约开于17000元/吨，收于17185元/吨，较前一交易日变化190元/吨，全天交易 日成交87949手，较前一交易日变化34036手，全天交易日持仓59088手，手较前一交易日变化-424手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17370元/吨，最低点达到16960元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于17375 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Cost side is fluctuating around the Iran situation. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and the sensitivity of oil prices to the Iran situation is much greater than that of Venezuela [1]. - PX has a positive medium - term outlook, but the current fundamental situation is weak. The increase in PX profits may lead to an increase in supply, and the demand side's maintenance plans are being gradually implemented [1]. - PTA's short - term supply and demand are accumulating, but the long - term outlook is positive as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends [2]. - The polyester industry's load is accelerating its decline, and the Spring Festival maintenance plans are being gradually implemented [2]. - PF's demand is weak, but the inventory has decreased significantly due to price increases [2]. - PR's processing fees have rebounded, and the pre - holiday inventory reduction has been smooth [3]. - Strategies include going long on PX/PTA/PF/PR for long - term hedging, going long on PTA processing fees for cross - variety trading, and no cross - period strategy [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - TA's main contract spot basis is - 78 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton), and PTA's spot processing fee is 415 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton) [2]. - Relevant figures include TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - glossy natural white basis [6][8][9][14]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PXN is 340 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 5 US dollars/ton). Relevant figures include PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [1][6][16]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [6][22][24]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the load of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the load of PX in China and Asia [6][25][30]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [6][35][38]. Downstream Polyester Load - Polyester's operating rate is 86.2% (a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%). Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, and polyester bottle - chip load [2][6][44]. PF Detailed Data - PF's spot production profit is - 20 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton). Figures show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, pure - polyester yarn start - up rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, and the spread between original and regenerated fibers [2][6][68]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - PR's spot processing fee is 581 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/ton). Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [3][6][83].

农产品日报 | 2026-01-30 市场情绪有所降温，局部区域相对抗跌 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11165元/吨，较前交易日变动-105.00元/吨，幅度-0.93%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.59元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.27元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1425，较前交易日变动-165；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 12.95元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1785，较前交易日变动-85；四 川地区外三元生猪价格12.38元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.20元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1215，较前交易日变动-95。 据农业农村部监测，1月29日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.56，比昨天上升0.05个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.55，比昨天上升0.06个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.60元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；牛肉66.01 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；羊肉63.50元/公斤，比昨天下降1.0%；鸡蛋8.58元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；白条鸡16.68 元/公斤，比昨天下降2. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,957 yuan/ton (a change of -13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.33%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,837 yuan/ton (a change of -6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.16%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -116 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - made EG was -$41/ton (a month - on - month increase of $2/ton), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - made EG was -710 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 858,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 645,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons). The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 147,000 tons, and the arrival at the secondary ports is 28,000 tons, which is slightly high overall, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - On the domestic supply side, the extrusion of the syngas production load is not obvious, the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still large under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. Overseas, with the maintenance of Saudi and Taiwanese plants, the import pressure will ease around the end of February, but it will still be large from January to February, and there will be a slight inventory reduction in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans in mid - January have been gradually implemented, the weaving load and polyester load have accelerated their decline, and the support of rigid demand has weakened [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3,957 yuan/ton (a change of -13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.33%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,837 yuan/ton (a change of -6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.16%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -116 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production gross profit of ethylene - made EG was -$41/ton (a month - on - month increase of $2/ton), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - made EG was -710 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference No specific data presented in the content. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - In mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans were gradually implemented, the weaving load and polyester load accelerated their decline, and the support of rigid demand weakened [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 858,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 645,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons). The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 147,000 tons, and the arrival at the secondary ports is 28,000 tons, which is slightly high overall, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish near the support level of 3,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the capital dynamics and the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2603 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, prices gradually declined, and the pre - holiday freight rate drive was weak. The market is gambling on the price - holding expectation of relatively low capacity pressure in March. The near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt shipping schedules and shipping company pricing strategies. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and the short - selling direction has an advantage before the Spring Festival. The delivery of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the far - month contracts are expected to fluctuate greatly due to the uncertainty of the Suez Canal's reopening time [1][4][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of January 29, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 64,530.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 37,978.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts were 1717.50, 1249.70, 1576.00, 1645.40, 1151.20, and 1413.70 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - On January 23, 2026, the SCFI prices were 1595 US dollars/TEU for Shanghai - Europe route, 2084 US dollars/FEU for Shanghai - US West route, and 2896 US dollars/FEU for Shanghai - US East route. On January 26, 2026, the SCFIS was 1859.31 points for Shanghai - Europe and 1294.32 points for Shanghai - US West [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. For ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 80 ships with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU were delivered, and for ships over 17,000 TEU, 13 ships with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU were delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) are expected to be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) are expected to be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [2][3] - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in February was 283,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 were 340,000, 342,000, 261,100, and 188,300 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March was 295,800 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10 - 14 were 252,400, 338,600, 348,700, 285,200, and 254,500 TEU respectively. There were 13 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors affect shipping routes. Maersk announced on January 15 that it would resume the Suez Canal route for its MECL service as the stability in the Red Sea improved. CMA has decided to divert ships on FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex international situation [2][6] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaics and other products by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping schedules of related industries and further affect shipping companies' pricing strategies. It is necessary to monitor whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5]