农产品周报 | 2026-02-23 关注关税政策，豆粕价格震荡运行 粕类市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，节前2月13日收盘豆粕2605合约2800元/吨，环比上涨65元/吨，涨幅2.38%；2月13日收盘菜粕2605合约 2309元/吨，环比上涨70元/吨，涨幅3.13%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨，环比持平，现货基差 M05+370，环比下降65；江苏地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，环比上涨40元/吨，现货基差M05+270，环比下跌25； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，环比上涨50元/吨，现货基差M05+260，环比下跌15。福建地区菜粕现货价格2420 元/吨，环比上涨10元/吨，现货基差M05+111，环比下跌60。 豆粕：国际方面，巴西商贸部表示，截止2026年2月第2周，累计装出大豆269.3万吨，去年2月为642.8万吨。日均 装运量为26.9万吨，较去年2月的32.1万吨减少16.22%。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，截至2月18日当周目前75% 的大豆作物评级正常至良好，高于一周前的68%，去年同期68%；66%的种植区水分条件适宜到最佳，高于一周前 的56%，去年同期 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Sell put options [9] 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand continues to decline, and the price of precious metals remains volatile. The price of copper may range from RMB 97,800/ton to RMB 106,600/ton. It is not recommended to hold heavy positions during the Spring Festival holiday [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 12, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at RMB 103,620/ton and closed at RMB 102,330/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at RMB 102,030/ton and closed at RMB 100,030/ton, a 2.58% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of RMB 100 - RMB 20/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of RMB 60/ton, a RMB 10/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price ranged from RMB 101,840 - RMB 102,240/ton. The 2602 contract showed a W-shaped oscillation and closed at RMB 101,950/ton. With the Spring Festival approaching, the market was quiet, and the supply - demand imbalance was expected to widen the spot discount [2]. Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet him. The Sino - US trade "cease - fire" is expected to be extended. Due to investors' concerns about AI eroding corporate profits, the US stock market tumbled, causing copper prices to decline [3]. Mining End - In 2025, Congo (Kinshasa)'s copper exports increased from 3.1 million tons to 3.4 million tons, a 9.7% year - on - year increase, solidifying its status as the world's second - largest copper producer. Chinese - funded enterprises play a major role in Congo's copper production [4]. Smelting and Import - In January, the proportion of Chinese - produced copper in LME's available inventory decreased due to inflows from other countries. The absolute inventory of Chinese - produced copper in LME warehouses increased from 87,475 tons in December to 95,150 tons at the end of January [5]. Consumption - As the Spring Festival nears, spot trading is light. The output and capacity utilization rate of copper rods in January 2026 decreased compared to December. Different regions showed different trends in production volume [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,000 tons to 196,650 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 8,282 tons to 187,179 tons. On February 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 353,600 tons, a change of 22,300 tons from the previous week [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the trading data of various index options on February 12, 2026, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, to reflect the market situation of index options [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Option Trading Volume - On February 12, 2026, the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 626,200 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 946,600 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 49,100 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,275,800 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options was 61,400 contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 252,600 contracts [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai 50 ETF options was 483,400 contracts (253,100 call contracts and 230,300 put contracts); the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 529,400 contracts (262,500 call contracts and 267,000 put contracts); the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,089,800 contracts (589,500 call contracts and 500,200 put contracts); the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 66,900 contracts (51,000 call contracts and 15,900 put contracts); the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,275,800 contracts (539,000 call contracts and 736,800 put contracts); the trading volume of Shanghai 50 index options was 22,100 contracts (8,700 call contracts and 13,400 put contracts); the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options was 71,800 contracts (33,500 call contracts and 23,700 put contracts); the trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 252,600 contracts (141,500 call contracts and 111,100 put contracts) [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai 50 ETF options was 0.57, with a month - on - month change of - 0.15; the position PCR was 0.76, with a month - on - month change of - 0.06; the turnover PCR of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 0.78, with a month - on - month change of - 0.26; the position PCR was 0.84, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04; the turnover PCR of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 0.52, with a month - on - month change of - 0.18; the position PCR was 1.24, with a month - on - month change of + 0.04; the turnover PCR of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 1.48, with a month - on - month change of + 0.19; the position PCR was 1.28, with a month - on - month change of + 0.10; the turnover PCR of ChiNext ETF options was 0.70, with a month - on - month change of - 0.16; the position PCR was 1.15, with a month - on - month change of + 0.12; the turnover PCR of Shanghai 50 index options was 0.49, with a month - on - month change of + 0.13; the position PCR was 0.64, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01; the turnover PCR of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options was 0.40, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03; the position PCR was 0.63, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01; the turnover PCR of CSI 1000 index options was 0.50, with a month - on - month change of - 0.07; the position PCR was 0.96, with a month - on - month change of + 0.03 [2][36] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai 50 ETF options was 16.60%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.11%; the VIX of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 17.13%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.34%; the VIX of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 25.33%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.55%; the VIX of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 20.33%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.11%; the VIX of ChiNext ETF options was 26.20%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.34%; the VIX of Shanghai 50 index options was 17.15%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.01%; the VIX of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options was 17.89%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.12%; the VIX of CSI 1000 index options was 25.64%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.58% [3][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [10] - Options: On hold [10] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the turmoil in the US stock market, market risk sentiment has emerged, and the demand for gold investment may slightly weaken. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the near term, but the bullish logic remains unchanged, maintaining a cautiously bullish view. The Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1050 yuan/gram and 1200 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 18500 yuan/kilogram and 21500 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitically, US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The Sino-US trade "truce" is expected to be extended. In the stock market, concerns about AI eroding corporate profits led to a sharp decline in the US stock market, causing a broad sell - off in risk assets. Technology stocks led the decline, with the Nasdaq down more than 2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3%. Gold and silver also suffered heavy losses under risk - aversion sentiment, with spot gold down more than 4% and spot silver down more than 11% at one point [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 12, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1133.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1126.12 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.38% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1123.94 yuan/gram and closed at 1100.96 yuan/gram, a 2.23% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 21718.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20626.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 1.52% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 509006 lots, and the open interest was 198505 lots. In the night session, it opened at 20400 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19188 yuan/kilogram, a 6.97% decline from the afternoon close [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 12, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.096%, down 7.42 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.65%, up 1.81 basis points from the previous trading day [4] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 4046 lots and the short positions decreased by 2712 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 324449 lots, a 14.97% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 9695 lots and the short positions decreased by 8203 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1109141 lots, a 2.31% change from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1081.32 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16236 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 12, 2026, the domestic gold premium was - 3.89 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 138.31 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contract prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 54.60, a 1.16% change from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 58.89, a - 4.01% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamentals - On February 12, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 24712 kilograms, a - 14.71% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 220352 kilograms, a - 5.23% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. It is recommended to maintain a light position before the Spring Festival and pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The operating rate of PDH has marginally increased due to the restart of some devices, but there is still a gap compared to the previous level. The overseas supply has tightened marginally, and the external market has phased support, but there are still resistance factors in the market. The high raw material cost suppresses the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. The price inversion of ether post - carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk. During the Spring Festival, the main uncertainty in the market comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between Iran and the United States escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supply, which is a potential upward risk factor for the disk. Otherwise, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On February 12, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market, 4380 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3740 - 4200 yuan/ton; North China market, 4150 - 4460 yuan/ton; East China market, 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4590 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 638 US dollars/ton and 628 US dollars/ton respectively, both down 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices were 4878 yuan/ton for propane and 4802 yuan/ton for butane, both down 37 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 628 US dollars/ton and 618 US dollars/ton respectively, both down 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices were 4802 yuan/ton for propane and 4726 yuan/ton for butane, down 37 yuan/ton and 36 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The CP propane - butane swap in the external market had a correction yesterday, while the domestic LPG spot price remained stable overall with partial increases. The East China spot market was mainly stable, with sellers having a low willingness to adjust prices before the festival, and the trading atmosphere was mediocre. The East China market is still at a low level considering the main delivery areas of PG futures. Recently, the overseas supply has tightened marginally, especially in the United States where production and inventory have significantly declined due to the cold wave, providing phased support to the external market. However, there are still resistance factors in the market. The high raw material cost has suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. This week, the restart of some devices has driven the operating rate up to 65%, but it is still far from the previous level of 75%. The price inversion of ether post - carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk, especially for the main PG2603 contract, where the pressure of concentrated warrant cancellation will be more obvious [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran and maintain a light position before the festival. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [2] - Intertemporal: None [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost side of asphalt still has support, but attention should be paid to the fluctuations of the overseas market during the holiday. The geopolitical situation, especially the unclear situation in Iran, may cause significant fluctuations in overseas oil prices during the holiday, affecting the opening of crude oil and asphalt futures after the festival. The raw material substitution of domestic refineries is in progress, and the pattern is expected to be clearer after the holiday. Although there is no absolute bottleneck in raw material substitution, the cost increase is likely inevitable. If the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, the supply of alternative raw materials will face greater threats, and there is still an upward risk in the market [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 12, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,327 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous settlement price. The position was 30,915 lots, a decrease of 10,276 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 45,617 lots, a decrease of 13,315 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt were 3,506 - 3,700 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,210 - 3,250 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,290 - 3,350 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,250 - 3,280 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in the Northeast and Shandong regions increased yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply and demand in the domestic asphalt spot market are both weak, and the prices fluctuate slightly [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation, and operate with a light position before the holiday [2]. - Intertemporal: No relevant strategy [2]. - Cross-variety: No relevant strategy [2]. - Spot-futures: No relevant strategy [2]. - Options: No relevant strategy [2].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Supply contraction provides price support, but high polysilicon inventory suppresses demand, and the price lacks upward momentum. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Supply contraction in February provides price support, but downstream cost drags down demand, and the large inventory is being reduced slowly, suppressing price increases. Before April, the "rush to export" phenomenon has no obvious driving force, and the market awaits the supply - demand game [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 12, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and fell. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,375 yuan/ton and closed at 8,335 yuan/ton, a change of (-35) yuan/ton or (-0.42)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 307,764 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on February 11, 2026 was 19,317 lots, a change of 1,200 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton; Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton; 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the 97 silicon price was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to slump. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, and large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, so the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1] - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the supply is expected to shrink [1] Polysilicon - On February 12, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and rose. It opened at 48,840 yuan/ton and closed at 49,015 yuan/ton, a 0.44% change in the closing price from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 37,702 (38,313 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 4,540 lots [2] - The spot price of polysilicon slightly declined. N - type material was 48.50 - 58.00 (-0.40) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.90, with a 2.30% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, a 6.14% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon production was 20,100.00 tons, with a 0.00% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, a - 3.18% month - on - month change [3] - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.13 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.43 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece [3] - The prices of battery chips were stable. The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery chips was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery chips were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery chips were about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery chips were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery chips were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [3][4] - The mainstream transaction prices of components were stable. PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [4] Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [2] - Cross - product: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy sector's recent fluctuations are significantly affected by the Iran situation, and the situation is still unclear. During the Spring Festival holiday, changes in the situation and news may lead to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, which will be transmitted to the post - holiday market, so risks should be noted before the holiday [1] - From the perspective of its own fundamentals, the market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has been running strongly recently, with good downstream marine fuel demand, and the raw material substitution of Venezuelan oil by domestic refineries has also promoted the import demand for fuel oil. However, there is no shortage expectation in the market. Russia's shipments increased significantly in January, which will lead to an increase in arrivals in Asia in February. Overall, under the premise of relatively controllable geopolitical situations, the fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil do not have the momentum to strengthen continuously. In a high - freight environment, over - valuation will suppress downstream refinery demand. If the Iran situation deteriorates further, high - sulfur fuel oil, as the main product of Iran's exports, has a relatively prominent risk exposure [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current fundamental contradictions are not obvious. Due to the resumption of production at the Azur refinery, Kuwait's shipments were relatively high in January, but the overall pressure is relatively limited, and it mainly follows the fluctuations of the crude oil end in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,888 yuan/ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.45% at 3,349 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, avoid geopolitical risks as much as possible, and operate with a light position before the holiday [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, avoid geopolitical risks as much as possible, and operate with a light position before the holiday [2] Figures and Data - There are multiple figures showing the prices, spreads, closing prices of futures contracts, and trading volumes and open interests of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, as well as the fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures in China, with corresponding units such as US dollars/ton and yuan/ton, and hand [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the Civil Aviation Administration of China have issued an implementation opinion on promoting the high - quality development of low - altitude insurance. By 2027, a preliminary mandatory insurance system for unmanned aerial vehicle liability will be established, and by 2030, the policy framework for low - altitude insurance will basically take shape [1]. - The National Film Administration and the Ministry of Commerce have organized a "Film +" consumption comprehensive pilot program to boost consumption and promote the transformation of the film industry into a diversified consumption ecosystem [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Level Upstream - Black commodities are at low prices [1]. - Egg prices have declined [1]. - Building material prices have dropped [1]. Midstream - The operating rates of PX and urea remain high [2]. - The coal consumption of power plants has increased [2]. - The production of pork products has increased [2]. Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - The number of domestic flights has remained high and stable [2]. 4. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Value (as of 2/9) | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2271.4 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.1 yuan/kg | - 12.96% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8972.0 yuan/ton | - 0.47% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15986.0 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.3 yuan/kg | - 0.76% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 101646.7 yuan/ton | 0.79% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24656.0 yuan/ton | - 1.26% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 23406.7 yuan/ton | 1.90% | | | Spot price of nickel | 138650.0 yuan/ton | - 0.20% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16506.3 yuan/ton | 0.08% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3170.0 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of iron ore | 786.9 yuan/ton | - 2.25% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3367.5 yuan/ton | - 0.96% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.3 yuan/square meter | 0.15% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 16125.0 yuan/ton | 0.62% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 786.7 | - 0.56% | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 63.6 dollars/barrel | - 2.55% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 68.1 dollars/barrel | - 1.83% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3620.0 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | | Coal price | 799.0 yuan/ton | - 0.50% | | | Spot price of PTA | 5144.3 yuan/ton | - 0.57% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 6800.0 yuan/ton | - 3.20% | | | Spot price of urea | 1765.0 yuan/ton | - 0.70% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1201.4 yuan/ton | - 0.12% | | Real estate | National cement price index | 131.7 | - 0.79% | | | Building materials composite index | | - 0.43% | | | National concrete price index | 89.8 | - 0.42% | [36]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a bearish bias [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [5][6] - Thermal Coal: Stable with a slight upward trend before the holiday, may face pressure after the holiday [7] Core Views - Steel market shows simultaneous weakening of supply and demand, with steel prices oscillating weakly due to pre - holiday inventory growth and lack of raw material drive [1] - Iron ore market has a large supply - demand contradiction, with port inventory slightly decreasing and iron water output rising. If port liquidity issues are resolved, there will be a large supply impact [3] - Coking coal and coke markets have a quiet trading atmosphere before the holiday. Coke prices are expected to oscillate with cost fluctuations, and coking coal prices are expected to be stable with narrow adjustments [5][6] - Thermal coal market has limited trading volume, with prices rising slightly due to supply contraction and expected to be stable and slightly strong before the holiday, but may face pressure after the holiday [7] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices of steel oscillated downward. This week, steel demand dropped significantly, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The output of the five major steel products was 794100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25800 tons. The inventory was 1.4427 million tons, with an inventory accumulation of 105000 tons (last week's inventory accumulation was 59000 tons). The apparent demand was 689100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71600 tons [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall contradiction in the steel market is not prominent. Before the holiday, the construction material terminal is stagnant, and the rebar price is weak. The plate demand is relatively stable, but high inventory restricts the price space of hot - rolled coils. The steel inventory continues to grow before the holiday, and the supply - demand pressure increases slightly. With weak raw material drive, steel prices will oscillate weakly. Later, attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment and raw material price changes [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 330490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1910 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports was 169.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94 million tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: On the supply side, non - mainstream shipments remain high at high ore prices, and global shipments decline seasonally, with port inventory slightly decreasing. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output has increased slightly. After steel mills complete replenishment, the support for raw material prices is weak. The supply - demand contradiction is still large. If port liquidity issues are resolved, there will be a large supply impact. Later, attention should be paid to iron ore inventory changes and negotiation progress [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating with a bearish bias; Other strategies: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated narrowly. The trading atmosphere of coking coal was quiet before the holiday, and the price decreased slightly. The spot price of coke was relatively stable, and most steel mills had completed inventory replenishment. This week, coking coal inventory decreased significantly, and coke inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, supply has increased slightly recently. Most steel mills have completed winter storage replenishment. Before the holiday, coking plants adjust production independently, and the price is expected to oscillate and follow cost fluctuations. For coking coal, the molten iron output of steel mills has increased, and the rigid demand maintains resilience. After downstream replenishment is completed, speculative demand shrinks. Before the Spring Festival, coal mines stop production and take holidays one after another, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is suspended during the Spring Festival, so the supply pressure of coking coal is relieved. It is expected that the coal price will be stable with narrow adjustments before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the resumption of domestic coal production after the holiday [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, most private coal mines are on holiday, and supply further shrinks. In the port area, most traders are on holiday, and market trading is light. In the import market, the Indonesian policy has not been implemented, and the market pattern remains unchanged [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, due to coal mine holidays, supply has shrunk, and downstream factories are also on holiday, so both supply and demand are weak. Affected by supply in the import market, the price of domestic coal continues to rise slightly. It is expected that the Indonesian supply will recover later. Overall, the price increase space before the holiday is limited, and it is expected to run stably and slightly strongly. After the holiday, when coal mine supply recovers and the peak season is approaching the end, coal prices may face pressure [7]